Submitted:
05 October 2018
Posted:
08 October 2018
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Abstract
The seasonally adjusted civilian labor force participation rate, the sum of employed and unemployed persons as a percentage of the civilian non-institutional population, is analysed in the general to specific modelling framework with a saturating set of step indicators from January 1977 through June 2018. The results indicate that, ceteris paribus, the rise in the ratio of women to men in the labor force in addition to positive demographic movements can largely account for the rise in the labor force participation rate up to January 2000. Subsequently, the aging population helps to explain the decline. Recessions play a transitory role.
Keywords:
labor force participation rate
; general to specific modelling
; step indicator saturation
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