Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Hydrologic Forecasts Verification and Comparison of Forecasting Methods

Version 1 : Received: 29 August 2018 / Approved: 29 August 2018 / Online: 29 August 2018 (16:11:24 CEST)

How to cite: Borsch, S.; Khristoforov, A.; Krovotynzev, V.; Leontieva, E.; Simonov, Y.; Deriugina, V. Hydrologic Forecasts Verification and Comparison of Forecasting Methods. Preprints 2018, 2018080507 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201808.0507.v1). Borsch, S.; Khristoforov, A.; Krovotynzev, V.; Leontieva, E.; Simonov, Y.; Deriugina, V. Hydrologic Forecasts Verification and Comparison of Forecasting Methods. Preprints 2018, 2018080507 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201808.0507.v1).

Abstract

This paper presents the methods of estimating the mean square error of hydrological forecasts, allowing for assessment of their practical applicability. Depending upon the amount and composition of available hydrometeorological data, an appropriate method for forecast error estimation is chosen. A system of statistical tests for comparison of different forecasting methods for the same hydrologic characteristic with the same lead time is presented. These tests allow for choosing an optimal and most accurate forecasting method. Hydrological forecasting method efficiency estimation is based on comparing the forecast error with climatology or inertial (persistence) forecast error using presented tests.

Subject Areas

hydrologic forecast verification, mean squared forecast error, methods of forecast error estimation, comparison of hydrologic forecasting methods, forecast applicability assessment.

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