Borsch, S.; Khristoforov, A.; Krovotynzev, V.; Leontieva, E.; Simonov, Y.; Deriugina, V. Hydrologic Forecasts Verification and Comparison of Forecasting Methods. Preprints2018, 2018080507. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201808.0507.v1
APA Style
Borsch, S., Khristoforov, A., Krovotynzev, V., Leontieva, E., Simonov, Y., & Deriugina, V. (2018). Hydrologic Forecasts Verification and Comparison of Forecasting Methods. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201808.0507.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Borsch, S., Yuri Simonov and Victoria Deriugina. 2018 "Hydrologic Forecasts Verification and Comparison of Forecasting Methods" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201808.0507.v1
Abstract
This paper presents the methods of estimating the mean square error of hydrological forecasts, allowing for assessment of their practical applicability. Depending upon the amount and composition of available hydrometeorological data, an appropriate method for forecast error estimation is chosen. A system of statistical tests for comparison of different forecasting methods for the same hydrologic characteristic with the same lead time is presented. These tests allow for choosing an optimal and most accurate forecasting method. Hydrological forecasting method efficiency estimation is based on comparing the forecast error with climatology or inertial (persistence) forecast error using presented tests.
Keywords
hydrologic forecast verification, mean squared forecast error, methods of forecast error estimation, comparison of hydrologic forecasting methods, forecast applicability assessment.
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
