Markov Chain and Techno-Economic Analysis to Identify the Commercial Potential of New Technology: A Case Study of Motorcycle in Surakarta, Indonesia

LiFePO₄ (LFP) or Lithium-ion battery with its advantages compared to common current motorcycle battery is an appropriate alternative in substituting wet and dry cell battery. Huge amount of demand of motorcycle along with the battery in Indonesia also make it an interesting product for business. In order to assess the commercial potential for such a new technology, market share needs to be estimated as well as the techno-economic feasibility. Hence, market share prediction using the residents of Surakarta Region and techno-economic analysis using NPV, IRR and PBP indicators have been conducted in this study. Calculation using markov chain method shows that LFP battery tends to dominate the market after certain period. Techno-economic analysis also figures out that the commercialization is feasible in three conditions - first mover, even with market leader and equilibrium point. Therefore, there is a great commercial potential for LFP battery especially in Indonesia.