The impacts of inflation on international finance are generally reflected in the decline of buying power, risks of investment and deposit loss from currency devaluation. For the purpose of optimized allocation and management of asset values, i.e., annual income or research grants, a framework of a three-level model for static financial management is presented to maximize banking interests, bonuses, and the remaining balance after spending necessary expenditures. Meanwhile, in retrospect to higher-level financial inflation, strategies of dynamic investment, i.e., posing regular tests of flipping coins, exploiting variations of the currency exchange rate, as well as applying the theory of broad money, are presented to increase the appreciation rate of net assets in and post the era of COVID-19. Quantitative evaluations in case studies verify the feasibility of improving the financial situation, indicating broader applications for budgeting and investing when US inflation rate is below 3.0%. Besides, combining approaches of static and dynamic strategies, the expected annual growth rate of individual zero-risk asset investment is predicted as within the range of 8.30~9.62% according to budgeted appreciation on net assets in 12 months, which is capable of overcoming negative impacts from higher level annual inflation, i.e., those as highest as 8.01% in the Year 2022.

China's economic development has shifted from high speed to high quality. This study constructs an evaluation index for China’s high-quality development utilizing a new development concept. The entropy method and cluster analysis were used to assess the level of high-quality development in China between 2015 and 2021. Kernel density estimation method was employed to explore spatiotemporal dynamics. The results reveal significant differences in the level of economic development among provinces in China; the eastern region is significantly better than the central, northeastern, and western regions. From the perspective of the sub-item evaluation, challenges with uneven, uncoordinated, and insufficient economic development exist in various Chinese provinces.

The following article analyzes Italian companies with more than 10 employees that use online sales tools. The data used were acquired from the ISTAT-BES database. The article first presents a static analysis of the data aimed at framing the phenomenon in the context of Italian regional disparities. Subsequently, a clustering with k-Means algorithm is proposed by comparing the Silhouette coefficient and the Elbow method. The investigation of the innovative and technological determinants of the observed variable is carried out through the application of a panel econometric model. Finally, different machine learning algorithms for prediction are compared. The results are critically discussed with economic policy suggestions.

Analysis of immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on SMEs in Rwanda aims to assess and quantify the economic and financial impacts of the pandemic during the lockdown and presents options adopted by SMEs to reopen their business opera-tions. It also seeks to recommend options for sustainable and resilient economic recovery from the scars of COVID-19. This analysis used data collected from nearly 220 SMEs located across the country and applied an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) and multivariate linear regression models to measure the pandemic effects. The study revealed that firms downsized employment by 36.4 per cent, but data depict significant deviation within SMEs by their size. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a greater magni-tude of negative effects on sales levels among small businesses. Tax amounts were reduced amidst the crisis however, data do not show any significant variations among SMEs. Additionally, SMEs owners applied various coping mechanisms during re-opening. The study used firm-level data, providing detailed and reliable effects of the shocks on business performance. This analysis recommends establishing the medium-term financing and technical support for SMEs to ensure steady and sustainable recovery from pandemic effects as well as strengthening their resilience to any other socio-economics shocks.

For a long time, a company's Product Development Process (PDP) was seen as supporting the operations department, although PDP decisions and mistakes have a considerable impact on market performance. This is critical even in agriculture where bad habits and practices in the PDP can lead rural producers to great losses. Therefore, this research investigated the effect on the market performance of rural products (banana) in the southern region of Brazil, based on two analyses: (i) how sustainability practices support the PDP phases and (ii) how the phases of the Product Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) mediate sustainability practices and PDP phases. This study presents a quantitative analysis using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and hierarchical ordinary least squares (OLS) regression of data obtained from a survey of 110 rural producers who directly participate in the banana production and planning process in southern Brazil. Our results shows that sustainability practices support the PDP, and we confirm that the product development and post-development phase has an effect on market performance. In addition, we identified that in the pre-development phase of the PDP, dealing with rural products (bananas), the maturity stage of the LCA mediates sustainability. In the PDP development phase, we concluded that rural families that develop economic and environmental practices with their products in the market growth phase may have reduced results. As for the post-development phase of the PDP, we conclude that when companies invest in environmental and social practices, there is a complete mediation of the effect, where these practices lose strength if the product is in the introduction and maturity phases in the market. As originality, our study contributed to demonstrate value on the product life cycle for the product development process in agriculture using sustainability practices through a systemic approach, filling the gap in the literature due to the lack of research on these areas seen in an integrated way.

The development of a Digital Track Model (DTM) within Kazakhstan's railway system presents an innovative approach to enhancing efficiency and safety across the network. This paper investigates the economic viability of DTM implementation, offering a comprehensive mathematical model that highlights potential reductions in maintenance costs and improvements in system accuracy and durability. The findings advocate for DTM's potential to significantly elevate railway operations, suggesting a pivotal step towards modernizing Kazakhstan's transit infrastructure.

Amid escalating urbanization, devising rational commercial space layouts is a critical challenge. Leveraging machine learning, this study uses a Back-propagation (BP) neural network to optimize commercial spaces in Weinan City's central urban area. The results indicate an increased number of commercial facilities with a trend of multi-centered agglomeration and outward expansion. Based on these findings, we propose a strategic framework for rational commercial space development emphasizing aggregation centers, development axes, and spatial guidelines. This strategy provides valuable insights for urban planners in small and medium-sized cities in the Yellow River Basin and metropolitan areas, ultimately showcasing the power of machine learning in enhancing urban planning.

The study addresses the urgent environmental issue of climate change, focusing specifically on the role of local food, which is produced and consumed locally, helps reduce carbon emissions by eliminating the need for long-distance transportation. Through quantitative analysis, this study elucidates the potential benefits in environmental impact achieved through the consumption of local food: the significant reduction in carbon emissions. Specifically, the consumption of local food is found to yield an annual decrease of 2,421,296 tCO2 emissions, representing 2.5% of South Korea’s total greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. This reduction further translates into an estimated economic value of USD 54.23 million (KRW 70.5 billion). This study underscores the potential of local food consumption as a tangible strategy to overcome environmental problems. Moreover, its academic contribution lies in its comprehensive analysis of the economic and empirical impacts of local food consumption on environment. Moving forward, we propose policies such as supporting local food distribution networks, providing public education on local food, fostering the local food industry, and providing incentives to revitalize local food consumption.

Semi-continuous data are very common in the social science and economics. In this paper, a Bayesian variable selection procedure is developed to assess the influence of exogenous factors including observed and unobserved on the semi-continuous data. Our formulation is based on the two-part latent variable model with polytomous response. We consider two schemes for the penalties of regression coefficients and factor loadings: the Bayesian spike and slab bimodal prior and the Bayesian lasso prior. Within the Bayesian framework, we implement Markov Chains Monte Carlo sampling method to conduct posterior inference. To facilitate posterior sampling, we recast the logistic model in part one as the norm-like mixture model. Gibbs sampler is designed to draw observations from the posterior. Our empirical results show that with suitable hyper-parameters, the spike and slab bimodal method slightly outperforms the Bayesian lasso in the current analysis. Finally, a real example related to the China household finance survey is analyzed to illustrate the application of the methodology.. .

The study delves into the critical examination of the Size of Loss distribution patterns in the context of auto insurance during pre- and post-pandemics, emphasizing their profound influence on insurance pricing and regulatory frameworks. Through a comprehensive analysis of the historical Size of Loss data, insurers and regulators gain essential insights into the probabilities and magnitudes of insurance claims, informing the determination of precise insurance premiums and the management of case reserving. This approach aids in fostering fair competition, ensuring equitable premium rates, and preventing discriminatory pricing practices, thereby promoting a balanced insurance landscape. The research further investigates the transformative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these Size of Loss patterns, given the substantial shifts in driving behaviors and risk landscapes. Also, the research contributes to the literature by addressing the need for more studies focusing on the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on pre- and post-pandemic auto insurance loss patterns, thus offering a holistic perspective encompassing both insurance pricing and regulatory dimensions.

This paper investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth in the context of a panel kink regression with latent group structures. The proposed model allows us to explore the heterogeneous threshold effects of public debt on economic growth based on unknown group patterns. We propose a least squares estimator and demonstrate the consistency of estimating group structures. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is evaluated by simulations. Our findings reveal that the nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by a heterogeneous threshold level, which varies among different groups, and highlight that the mixed results found in previous studies may stem from the assumption of a homogeneous threshold effect.

Open bidding is widely used in Sinopec's material procurement due to its advantages of openness, transparency, and cost savings. However, there have been many complaints about collusive bidding in recent years. Collusive bidding will pose significant challenges to fair competition and increase project costs for material procurement. Therefore, there is an urgent need for an analysis model to identify and prevent the collusive bidding. In this paper, we propose a statistical model for identifying collusive bidding using the coefficient of variation cv, the ratio of high to low average quotation rP and the deviation rate of quotation δ as indicators, based on the statistics of the historical quotations for material A. Through a case study of the framework agreement bidding for material B, we identified the collusion behavior of bidders effectively, thereby verifying the applicability of this statistical model.

In the following article, it is presented an investigation of the determinants of Beds for High-Care Specialties-BHCS in the Italian regions in the context of Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG approach. Data from ISTAT-BES for 20 countries in the period 2004-2021 are been used. Different econometric techniques have been applied i.e.: Pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Dynamic Panel at 1 stage. Furthermore, a cluster analysis performed with a k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette Coefficient indicated the presence of three clusters. Finally, eight different machine-learning algorithms are analysed to predict the future value of BHCS. The results show that the Artificial Neural Network-ANN algorithm is the best algorithm. The future value of BHSC is expected to growth on average of 4.88% for the analysed regions.

The following article presents an analysis of the impact of the Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG determinants on Hospital Emigration to Another Region-HEAR in the Italian regions in the period 2004-2021. The data are analysed using Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares-OLS, Weighted Least Squares-WLS, and Dynamic Panel at 1 Stage. Results show that HEAR is negatively associated to E, positively to S and negatively associated to the G within the ESG model. The data were subjected to clustering with a k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient. The optimal clustering with k=2 is compared to the sub-optimal cluster with k=3. The results suggest a negative relationship between the resident population and hospital emigration at regional level. Finally, a prediction is proposed with machine learning algorithms classified based on statistical performance. The results show that the Artificial Neural Network-ANN algorithm is the best predictor. The ANN predictions are critically analyzed in light of health economic policy directions.

The digital economy (DE) has become a major force driving the optimization and upgrading of industrial structures (ISOU), and research on the driving mechanism has yet to be verified. To this end, the driving influence of DE on the ISOU is targeted, and the role played by economic resilience (ER) and innovation is explored. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, the driving influence of the DE on the ISOU is analyzed using a two-way fixed-effects model. The empirical study finds that the DE presents a positive driving effect on both industrial structure advancement and rationalization, and the driving effect is still significant after the addition of control variables and the robust-type test with one period of lag; the DE presents regional differences in ISOU, with the driving effect of the DE on industrial structure advancement in the eastern region having a more significant performance than that of the central and western regions, and the driving influence on the rationalization of industrial structure in the eastern and western regions exceeds that in the central region; the impact of DE on the ISOU has a mediating role through innovation, ER has a moderating role in the process, and innovation as a partial mediator also has a threshold effect, and finally countermeasure suggestions are put forward.

Environmental responsibility and economic benefits have promoted the development of closed-loop supply chain (CLSC), and shortages and channels are considered to be two important issues in CLSC. This paper explores ordering and channel decisions in CLSC with new and differentiated remanufactured products, and considers the price and sales effort-dependent demands, as well as the proportion of emergency orders determined by emergency order costs and backorder losses, and establishes an integrated and decentralized CLSC game models. We introduce a stochastic sales effort, which affects two types of products. Numerical results show that sales effort and the order quantity of new and remanufactured products exhibit concave and convex functions, respectively. Wherein, the upper limit of sales effort has a greater impact on supply chain decisions. High sales efforts can serve as a means of coordinating dispersed supply chains. Moreover, in different cases, decisions of integrated channel are better than those of decentralized channel. Finally, whether the supply chain adopts an emergency order strategy depends on the relative cost of emergency orders and out of stock costs. According to the research in this article, some management insights are also provided.

India, the world’s most populous country, is the world's third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Despite employing several energy sources, it still relies heavily on coal, its primary energy source. Given India’s swiftly rising energy demand, this challenges meeting emission reduction targets. India has significantly increased investments in renewables like solar and hydrogen in recent years. While commendable, these initiatives alone cannot meet the country's expanding energy demands. In the short term, India must rely on both domestic and imported fossil fuels, with natural gas being the most environmentally friendly option. In this context, this paper attempts to forecast energy consumption, natural gas production, and consumption in India till 2050 using both univariate and multivariate forecasting methods. For multivariate forecasting, we have assumed two alternative possibilities for GDP growth: the business-as-usual and the high-growth scenarios. Each of our forecasts indicates a notable shortfall in the projected production of natural gas compared to the expected demand, implying our results are robust. Our model predicts that nearly 30-50 percent of India’s natural gas consumption will be met by imports, mainly in the form of LNG. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that Indian government policies emphasize increasing domestic natural gas production, importing LNG, and expanding renewable energy resources.

Accurate agricultural commodity price models enable efficient allocation of limited natural resources, leading to improved sustainability in agriculture. Because of climate change, price volatility and uncertainty for the sector are expected to increase in the future, increasing the need for improved price modeling. With the emergence of machine learning (ML) algorithms, novel tools are now available to enhance the modeling of agricultural commodity prices. This research uses both univariate and multivariate ML techniques to perform probabilistic price prediction modelling for the Canadian beef industry, taking into account beef production, commodity market, and international trade features to enhance accuracy. We apply multivariate algorithms by using support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and adaboost (AB) and univariate algorithms by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors (SARIMAX). We apply these models to monthly fed steer price data between January 2005 and September 2023 and compare predicted prices with observed prices using several validation metrics. The outcomes indicate that both random forest (RF) and adaboost (AB) in multivariate modeling show superior performance in accurately predicting Alberta fed steer prices in comparison to other algorithms. To better account for the variance of the best model performance, we subsequently adopted a probabilistic approach by considering uncertainty in our best-selected ML model. The beef industry can use these improved price models to minimize resource waste and inefficiency in the sector and improve the long-term sustainability prospects for beef producers in Canada.

The treasury of a DAO is purported to uphold the value of the DAO-issued token, and this study represents a pioneering effort to delve into these realms. We explore the relationship between the treasury and market capitalization in two DAO projects, namely Olympus DAO and KlimaDAO. Employing Granger Causality tests, we scrutinize the relationship between market capitalization and the treasuries of these DAOs. Furthermore, we use an EGARCH model to investigate the in-fluence of carbon offset tokens on KlimaDAO’s market capitalization, incorporating this variable into the model's conditional mean equation. The findings reveal a significant relationship between market capitalization and the treasuries of the DAOs, indicating a potential impact of market capitalization on treasuries. Additionally, the well-specified EGARCH model highlights the sig-nificance of carbon offset tokens, suggesting their potential to influence the overall market capi-talization of a DAO project and support its value.

This work focuses on an inland area of North Sardinia (Italy), which is currently subject to depopulation and economic crisis because it is not affected by the summer tourism typical of the region. Despite this, the area shows an interesting architectural and natural heritage, as of today insufficiently known and valued. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the application of the Conjoint Analysis methodology on this case study aimed at supporting processes of valorisation, diversification of the tourist offer and promotion of the through the detection of the preferences of a sample of residents and visitors on a set of 9 cards (itinerary profiles) which also promote the peculiarities of small rural centres. Thus, by valorising the material and immaterial heritage and their intrinsic characteristics, it is shown that inland areas can generate an economy by offering new types of tourism, not just the typically invasive summer and maritime tourism. The research, therefore, seeks to estimate the economic value of the area from a public point of view through the WTP measured by a questionnaire of 600 interviews between inhabitants (300) and tourists (299).

This study investigates how a range of economic, environmental, and social indicators have influenced the concept of inclusive growth in 19 member countries of the Asian Cooperation Dialogue over the period spanning from 1995 to 2021. To analyze these relationships, the research employs the Driscoll Kraay's Standard Errors regression technique, designed to account for factors such as cross-sectional dependence, hetero-scedasticity, and autocorrelation within the data. Furthermore, various preliminary tests were conducted to assess the data for cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. Additionally, the Westerlund cointegration test was employed to evaluate the potential long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables. The findings reveal that the influence of independent variables on the dependent variable, which in this case is the level of inclusive growth (ING), differs significantly among three distinct income categories: lower-middle-income countries (LMYCs), upper-middle-income countries (UMYCs), and high-income countries (HYCs). Notably, the results underscore the overall statistical significance and robust fit of the regression model for all three income groups. One of the primary contribu-tions of this research is the provision of empirical evidence concerning the role played by fishery and aquaculture production in fostering inclu-sive growth in the Asian context. This research also highlights the trade-offs between economic development and environmental sustainability in terms of trade openness, agriculture, forestry and fishing, ecological footprint, and renewable energy utilization. Enhancing inclusive growth in Asia requires improving fishery and aquaculture management, diversifying economic activities, reducing ecological footprint, and increasing renewable energy utilization. The paper suggests some future work directions for extending the analysis to other regions and indicators, as well as incorporating dynamic panel data models and causality tests. The paper also suggests some policy implications for fostering inclusive growth in Asia through regional cooperation, capacity building, technology transfer and green financing.

In this paper we compare the effects of forecasting demand using individual (disaggregated) components versus first aggregating the components either fully or into several clusters. Demand streams are assumed to follow autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. Using individual demand streams will always lead to a superior forecast compared to any aggregates, however we show that if several aggregated clusters are formed in a structured manner then these subaggregated clusters will lead to a forecast with minimal increase in mean-squared forecast error. We show this result based on theoretical MSFE obtained directly from the models generating the clusters as well as estimated MSFE obtained directly from simulated demand observations. We suggest a pivot-algorithm, that we call Pivot Clustering, to create these clusters. We also provide theoretical results to investigate sub-aggregation, including for special cases such as, aggregating MA(1) streams and ARMA streams with similar or same parameters.

One of the challenges in the healthcare sector is making accurate forecasts across insurance years for claims reserve. The state-of-the-art envisages various methods for estimating the claims reserve but without being applied to systems that do not present huge variability and heterogeneity, such as the healthcare sector. The methodology is based on generalized linear models using the Overdispersed Poisson distribution as shown in the state-of-the-art. In this context, we developed a method to estimate the parameters of the quasi-likelihood function using a Gauss-Newton algorithm optimized through a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm plays a crucial role in glimpsing the position of the global minimum to ensure a correct convergence of the Gauss-Newton method, where the choice of the initial guess is fundamental. The proposed methodology has been entirely developed using MATLAB and has been applied to estimate the claims reserve in the healthcare system of the Tuscany Region in Italy, as case study. The results obtained were validated by comparing them with the state-of-the-art by measuring the confidence intervals of the Overdispersed Poisson distribution parameters. Therefore local healthcare authorities could use the proposed and improved methodology to allocate the resources dedicated to healthcare and global management.

This paper proposes a non-extensive entropy econometric technique to predict energy efficiency at province (NUT-2) level based on imperfect knowledge of the national overall efficiency in the sectors of industry, transport, households and services. The model is applied to the polish case. As acknowledged in recent literature, non-extensive entropy model should remain a valuable device for econometric modelling even in the case of low frequency series since outputs provided by the Gibbs-Shannon entropy approach correspond to the Tsallis entropy limiting case of the Gaussian law when the Tsallis q-parameter converges to unity. Therefore, we set up a q-Tsallis-Kullback-Leibler entropy criterion function with a priori consistency moment and model data constraints, including province energy intensity (known with uncertainty), regional climate differentiation and regular conditions. The model outputs continue to conform to empirical expectations. In spite of the close to unity q-Tsallis parameter, this Tsallis related approach reflects higher stability for parameter computation in comparison with the Shannon-Gibbs entropy econometrics technique. The proposed technique can be applied in different EU countries and elsewhere for example in the context of experimental official statistics.

Financial bubble prediction has been a significant area of interest in empirical finance, garnering substantial attention in the literature. This study aimed to detect and forecast financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market from 2001 to 2021. The PSY procedure, which involves a right-tailed unit root test to identify the existence of financial bubbles, was employed to achieve this goal. Machine learning algorithms were then utilized to predict real-time financial bubble events. The results revealed the presence of financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market during 2006-2007 and 2017-2018. Additionally, the empirical evidence supported the superior performance of the Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network algorithms over traditional statistical methods in predicting financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market.

Amidst China's new economic normal, the real economy faces various domestic and global challenges. Technological innovation, with its capital intensity and uncertain returns, is crucial to rejuvenate emerging industries and revamp the industrial structure. Meanwhile, financial agglomeration plays a dual role: directly fostering real economic development and indirectly affecting it through technological innovation. This study analyzes data from 30 mainland Chinese provinces and cities between 2011 and 2018, utilizing fuzzy matter-element analysis and location entropy method. Relying on a spatial econometric model, we explore the impact of technological innovation and financial clustering on real economic growth, including spatial ripple effects. The conclusions are derived from Chinese evidence and offer valuable insights into the evolving innovation and financial dynamics within the participating nations.

This scholarly investigation conducts a rigorous exploration of Bangladesh's textile sector spanning the years 2011 to 2022, centering its attention primarily on the development of an intricate econometric framework. The study unveils profound insights into the sector's growth trajectories, the intricate dynamics of global demand, the undulating fluctuations of interest rates, and other pivotal economic gauges. The core component of this research, the econometric model, adeptly prognosticates textile exports through the incorporation of multifarious variables, encompassing the count of garment establishments, the magnitude of the workforce, market penetration, worldwide demand patterns, currency exchange rates, and interest rate fluctuations. Notably, the model attains a lofty degree of explicative potency, with an R-squared coefficient approximating 0.756, thereby attesting to its remarkable capacity to elucidate variances in textile export values. These discoveries carry substantial consequences for policymakers and stakeholders within the industry, as they bestow upon them a potent instrument for judicious decision-making and strategic blueprinting within Bangladesh's textile domain. The model accentuates the paramount significance of global demand and market share, concurrently accentuating the latent repercussions posed by fluctuations in interest rates.This research provides valuable insights into promoting the industry's sustainable growth, diversification, and resilience in the face of economic challenges.

The ultimate goal of this paper was to examine the degree of elasticity between two variables, namely, agricultural credit and agricultural growth, in Angola in the period 2003–2022. Time series data were fitted into the ARDL test using various econometric techniques such as the ADF stationarity test, Granger causality and the ordinary least squares method as well as a vector error correction model (VECM) to analyze the relationship between agricultural credit and agricultural economic growth, showing a causal relationship. Both the impacts through elasticities and the optimal point existing in this relationship were estimated. It was concluded that the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural GDP was 14.41%. Granger causality shows signs of a positive linkage between agricultural credit and agricultural GDP. However, there is a causal relationship between agricultural credit and agricultural GDP, in a unidirectional aspect. This result is consistent with most of the earlier studies reviewed in the literature, confirming that credit-oriented monetary policies can boost economic growth and, consequently, development in Angola. It is important for agricultural credit systems to be designed in a way that ensures equitable access, fair interest rates, and appropriate risk management mechanisms. Additionally, monitoring and evaluation mechanisms should be in place to assess the environmental and social impacts of credit programs on agricultural sustainability. It is worth noting that this is a first-of-a-kind study on the matter of the Angolan credit experience, specifically for the agricultural sector. Angola is still searching for a sustainable credit model that could be used as a catalyzer to boost growth and contribute to economic development.

In recent years, the high-frequency abnormal price fluctuations of small-scale agricultural products have been detrimental to market stability. The traditional method based on statistical data of production factors can no longer accurately predict abnormal price fluctuations. Taking scallions as a case, the paper identifies price influencing factors from massive network information, and analyzes the causes and changing characteristics of price fluctuations from four perspectives: market supply, economic environment and market sentiment, and attention. Initially, the study employs an LDA topic model to extract factors from online sentiment data over the past four years, including market supply and demand, economic conditions, related agricultural prices, and market attention. Subsequently, using the SO-PMI algorithm to expand domain-specific lexicons and employing semantic and sentiment analysis with syntactic parsing, the study aims to improve the accuracy of sentiment quantification in text analysis. Furthermore, cointegration and Granger causality tests validate the significant impact of these factors on scallion price fluctuations, mitigating spurious regression issues. Finally, by employing a TVP-VAR model, the study compares the impulse responses and shock magnitudes of various factors in different time and spatial dimensions. It also delves into the mechanisms of heterogeneous impacts and trends in scallion prices, considering the corresponding socio-economic context and public sentiment events within specific time windows, thereby providing valuable decision-making insights for the healthy development of agricultural markets.

This study presents a novel approach for predicting hierarchical short time series. In this article, our objective was to formulate long-term forecasts for household natural gas consumption by considering the hierarchical structure of territorial units within a country's administrative divisions. For this purpose, we utilized natural gas consumption data from Poland. The length of the time series was an important determinant of the data set. We contrast global techniques, which employ a uniform method across all time series, with local methods that fit a distinct method for each time series. Furthermore, we compare the conventional statistical approach with a machine learning (ML) approach. Based on our analyses, we devised forecasting methods for short time series that exhibit exceptional performance. We have demonstrated that global models provide better forecasts than local models. Among ML models, neural networks yielded the best results, with the MLP network achieving comparable performance to the LSTM network while requiring significantly less computational time.

The paper proposes an approach to determine the optimal number of medical specialists in the region. According to the author's theoretical model, in order to maximize public welfare, the marginal contribution of the last physician recruited to the growth of the public utility function should be equal to the marginal cost of attracting him and providing conditions for his work. To empirically assess the contribution of physicians to the number of lives saved, the CVD mortality rate is modeled using the instrumental variable method. On average, a 1% increase in the number of cardiologists is associated with a 0.6% decrease in cardiovascular mortality. At the level of provision with cardiologists in the amount of 1 per 100 thousand people, their marginal contribution to the number of lives saved is not less than 129 per 100 thousand people, with a further decrease by 5 people with the increase in the level of provision by 1 unit. The use of the obtained results will increase the validity of managerial decisions and in determining the optimal level of doctors when choosing between alternative possibilities of spending money on hiring doctors of different profiles or other expenses, especially in the case of limited resources.

This paper introduces the spatial component in cross-section econometric estimations and specifically, the spatial dependence effect inherent in some of the variables involved in the modelling process. First, the spatial structure of the data from thematic maps is observed and Moran's spatial autocorrelation indicators are presented. Subsequently, the spatial weights matrix is built under different specifications. Finally, several modelling specification strategies are shown and the interpretation of the estimated coefficients. The theoretical concepts are illustrated with examples and their corresponding R software codes. This code and databases are available in a freely accessible repository in the BE2SHARE-EUDAT platform so that they can be easily reproduced.

. This paper features an analysis of the relative effectiveness of a variety of methods of modelling Realised Volatility (RV), namely: the use of Gegenbaur processes in Auto-Regressive Moving Average format, GARMA, as opposed to Heterogenous Auto-Regressive HAR models and simple rules of thumb. The analysis is applied to two data sets that feature the RV of the S&P500 index, as sampled at 5 minute intervals, provided by the Oxford Man RV database. The GARMA model does perform slightly better than the HAR model, but both models are matched by a simple rule of thumb regression model based on the application of lags of squared, cubed and quartic, demeaned daily returns.

Individual investors often struggle to predict stock prices due to the limitations imposed by the computational capacities of personal laptop Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) when running intensive deep learning models. This study proposes solving these GPU constraints by integrating deep learning models with technical analysis methods. This integration significantly reduces analysis time and equips individual investors with the ability to identify stocks that may yield potential gains or losses in an efficient manner. Thus, a comprehensive buy and sell algorithm, compatible with average laptop GPU performance, is introduced in the study. This algorithm offers a lightweight analysis method that emphasizes factors identified by technical analysis methods, thereby providing a more accessible and efficient approach for individual investors. To evaluate the efficacy of this approach, we analyzed the performance of eight deep learning models: LSTM (4 layers), CNN, BiLSTM (4 layers), CNN Attention, BiGRU CNN BiLSTM Attention, BiLSTM Attention CNN, CNN BiLSTM Attention, and CNN Attention BiLSTM. These models were used to predict stock prices for Samsung Electronics and Celltrion Healthcare. The CNN Attention BiLSTM model displayed superior performance among these models, with the lowest validation mean absolute error value. In addition, an experiment was conducted using WandB Sweep to determine the optimal hyperparameters for four individual hybrid models. These optimal parameters were then implemented in each model to validate their back-testing rate of return. The CNN Attention BiLSTM hybrid model emerged as the highest-performing model, achieving an approximate rate of return of 5 percent. Overall, this study offers valuable insights into the performance of various deep learning and hybrid models in predicting stock prices. These findings can assist individual investors in selecting appropriate models that align with their investment strategies, thereby increasing their likelihood of success in the stock market.

This study examined if people who reside in different regions of South Korea exhibit different WTP for the mitigation of PM2.5 emissions from coal power plants by restricting the operation of such plants during the winter and spring when air pollution becomes severe. A contingent valuation method combined with a double bounded dichotomous choice was used to derive people’s WTP for the mitigation of PM2.5 emissions. Sample group was divided into central, western, eastern, and southern regions. It is known that the eastern region is affected by northwesterly winds in the winter and spring seasons, so air pollutants in the eastern areas fly to the eastern sea. According to the estimation results, respondents who live in eastern regions showed significantly lower WTP than the average WTP. We suggest that the mitigation policy on PM2.5 emissions should consider regional differences in the contributions of coal power plants to PM2.5 emissions.

Innovation and technology are important tools of minerals sector efficiency and productivity im-provement. The uptake of technologies has proven important levelrs to improve the productivity of mining sector. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of mine-level productivity by using a global data of copper, gold, and platinum from 1991-2020. Various drivers of proioductivity have been analysed to draw policy insights. Empirical findings reveal significant disparities in technical efficiency and productivity across mines and regions. A further decomposition of TFP into its different components suggest that the adoption of innovative practices and investment in technology adoption could improve the overall productivity of these commodities. The findings also suggest that an appropriate input mix and optimal scale of production could boost platinum mining productivity. Regional disparities in productivity in different commodities (e.g., South Africa vs. Zimbabwe) give policymakers with insights into how to support production scale and productivity through appropriate input mixtures.

Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, apparently the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models - in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy - is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality rate. In this article, we examine whether the same forecast outcomes are obtained when the performance of mortality models is assessed based on the original and log scales of the mortality rate. We compare four different stochastic mortality models: the original Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter model with (log-)normal distribution, the Lee-Carter model with Poisson distribution and the median Lee-Carter model. We show that the preferred model will depend on the scale of the objective variable, the selection criteria measure and the range of ages analysed.

Cryptocurrencies have obtained a crucial position in the international financial landscape. The cryptocurrency market has been perceived as a highly volatile market since the inception of Bitcoin. This study investigates the relevant performance of extreme value models (EVM) in estimating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of Bitcoin and Ethereum returns. The extreme value mixture models, GPD-Normal-GPD (GNG) and GPD-KDE-GPD models are fitted to the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum and the Kupiec likelihood backtesting procedure is performed on the VaR estimates to assess the fits. Both models’ results showed that the fits were a much more decent representation of the observed data when compared to the Normal distribution. The backtesting results showed that the GPD-KDE-GPD model’s fit was superior to that of the GPD-Normal-GPD for both sets of returns at all VaR risk levels except at the 99% level. The results of this study may assist with understanding the dynamics and risks associated with cryptocurrencies and can serve as a beneficial tool for decision-making and risk management to investors, traders, financial institutions and many other participants in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

This study investigates the influence of expectations and trust on farmers' decisions regarding contractual choices in land transfer. The dataset used for analysis consists of 1101 households in Guizhou Province. The research focuses on two aspects: the selection between written and oral contracts, and the decision to continue the contractual relationship. The findings reveal that farmers' choices are significantly affected by their expectations and levels of trust.Specifically, when farmers' expectations regarding the land transfer process are not met, they tend to prefer written contracts over oral ones. This preference can be attributed to the greater clarity and risk reduction offered by written contracts. On the other hand, higher levels of trust increase the likelihood of farmers continuing the land transfer contract, as trust fosters a sense of confidence and security in the ongoing relationship.Interestingly, trust also plays a moderating role. Farmers who have aligned expectations and high levels of trust are more inclined to opt for oral contracts. This preference for oral contracts can be attributed to their flexibility and emphasis on interpersonal relationships, allowing for better adaptation to the changing dynamics of land transfer.These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the factors influencing farmers' decision-making processes regarding contractual choices in land transfer. They provide valuable insights for policymakers involved in land transfer, enabling them to optimize policies and facilitate farmers' decision-making processes.

The Metropolitan Economic Freedom Index (MEFI) ranks cities based on their support of free market enterprise. In its current state, MEFI purports to measure three constructs (government spending, taxation, and labor market freedom) with three equally weighted variables for each one, assuming perfect substitutability of variables. This study investigates the statistical consistency of MEFI through Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Multiple models investigate current variable selection by providing a potentially better indicator of labor market freedom, aggregation assumptions by removing the requirements for fixed and equal weights, and statistical consistency by evaluating the fit between the data and models. Results indicate that the current MEFI model is not statistically consistent with the data, that weighting of variables should not be equal, that variable selection should be investigated, and that constructs should be re-imagined. The models investigated provide an initial starting point for redefining MEFI.

This study investigates the relationship between clean and dirty energy markets, specifically focusing on clean energy stock indexes and their potential as hedging assets and safe havens during periods of global economic uncertainty. The research analyzes five clean energy indexes and five dirty energy indexes from May 2018 to May 2023, considering events like the global pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The main objective is to examine the causal relationship among different stock indexes pertaining to dirty and clean energy by using the Granger causality test (VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test) to determine whether clean energy indexes can predict future prices of dirty energy indexes. However, the findings reveal that clean and dirty energy indexes do not exhibit hedging characteristics or serve as safe havens during times of economic uncertainty, rejecting the research question. These results have important implications for investment strategies, as assets lacking safe haven characteristics may not preserve portfolio efficiency in uncertain times. The study's insights provide valuable guidance for investors, poli-cymakers, and participants in energy financial markets. It highlights the need to adapt investment approaches and seek alternative options to navigate uncertain economic conditions effectively.

As a manifestation of technological innovation achievements, patents reflect the frontier of technological development in the field. This paper constructs a multi-entity patent collaboration network and analyzes its evolution patterns to provide a reference for innovation organizations to grasp the general direction of innovation development and select partners. Based on the data of collaboration patents of two and three organizations in China's new energy vehicles (NEV) industry from 2008 to 2021, this paper constructs higher-order interaction collaboration innovation networks in different periods to analyze the spatial evolution of networks and patent cooperation activities. The results show that the generalized degree distribution of nodes and edges conforms to the power-law distribution. The two-dimensional simplex networks gradually form triangle groups centered on the core nodes, and the importance of key edges is beginning to emerge. Key organizations and partners, including State Grid Corporation of China, Tsinghua University, and China Electric Power Research Institute, will largely determine the direction for the future development of cooperation innovation. The study also reveals that Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, and Shanghai are in central positions in the cooperative innovation network, based on their cooperation breadth and depth measures. Additionally, key links formed by Beijing as hubs are not only the center of information exchange but also function as bridges that connect to other regions.

China’s Grassland Eco-Subsidy Program has been implemented since 2011 to protect and sustain grassland resources and improve the economic situation of herders. In this case study, we evaluated the policy from the perspective of pastoral differentiations and their willingness to accept (WTA) the eco-subsidy. Using the contingent valuation method (CVM), we interviewed 410 herder households in the grass-livestock balance sub-policy zones across Inner Mongolia, and examined how their horizontal and vertical differentiation affected their WTA and compensation expectations in a sorted Logistic model and a Tobit model, respectively. Our findings suggest that horizontal differentiation of herders (variations of income sources and employments) promoted the WTA for eco-subsidy and inhibited the increase of compensation expectations. A large vertical differentiation extent (income disparity) lowered the WTA but raised expectations for payment levels. Besides, factors such as operating pasture area, precipitation, and supervision intensity had significant impacts. Grazing income remained the primary income source for most herder households, reflecting the characteristics of "the rational economic man." Our results suggest a need for policy improvements to guide herders towards becoming "rational ecological men.” By considering this differentiation, policymakers can better tailor the program to meet the needs and expectations of diverse herder households.

The complex adaptive systems (CAS) research study investigates into the theoretical link of a sustained economic growth as a critical pathway to lift people out of poverty and improve their quality of life. The results show a left-skewed global behavior of an economy-driven human development of 189 countries with 20% or 27 countries obtaining low human development; 80% or 162 countries obtaining medium to very high human development of which 21.16% or 39 countries with medium HDI, 53 or 28.04% or 53 countries with high HDI, and 31.22% or 59 countries with very high HDI. Using the Log (GDP) for visual transformation, closer investigation into the scatterplot diagram reveals that there are also bimodal patterns where countries in the high amplitude and low amplitude groups obtained different human development outcomes despite less or more on economic growth variances mirror on the government policy priorities resulting in four differentiating conditions. Very few countries experience virtuous cycles where both growth and human development are successful; few countries with vicious cycles where both are weak; and many countries with lopsided conditions where the economy is strong but human development is weak, or conversely ones where human development is strong but the economy is weak. The global pattern of economy and human development illustrated by an upward sinusoid or sine wave refutes the conventional linear approach. Uniquely and most importantly, the sinusoidal wave illustrates a decreasing amplitude and decreasing periods as countries manifest apparently complex behaviors that emerge as a result of often nonlinear spatio-temporal interactions among a large number of component systems at different levels of organizations and governments leading to an emergence of a behavior characterizing of a complex adaptive system.

This study investigates the impact of governance variables on the earnings quality based on the industry the firm is in. it has been identified that earnings management have been practised differently by different industries. Most of the research under earnings management have focussed on holistic impacts of corporate governance variables on discretionary accruals while this study has categorised the firms based on what industry they fall on while identifying the impacts of the variables of corporate governance on discretionary accruals. Initially, this paper has studied the estimation of the value of discretionary accruals and identified that performance matched discretionary accruals as the best model as per the explanatory power of the model is higher than other models. Hence, the estimation of the earnings management has been calculated based on performance matched discretionary accruals in this research. This research has studied the impacts of the governance attributes on the earnings management categorising the firms based on the industry they are in; hence, the value of earnings management has been categorically separated; hereafter, the impact of the corporate governance factors on the value of categorically separated earnings management have been statistically analysed. This study has considered the descriptive study to compare the means, medians and standard deviations of the earnings management of various industries. Moreover, Pearson correlations and Spearman rank correlation have been used as a research tool to examine the correlation coefficients.

Many problems in the fields of finance and actuarial science can be transformed into the problem of solving backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) and partial differential equations (PDE) with jumps, which are often difficult to solve in high-dimensional cases. To solve this problem, this paper applies the deep learning algorithm to solve a class of high-dimensional nonlinear partial differential equations with jump terms and their corresponding backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) with jump terms. Using the nonlinear Feynman-Kac formula, the problem of solving this kind of PDE is transformed into the problem of solving the corresponding backward stochastic differential equations with jump terms, and the numerical solution problem is turned into a stochastic control problem. At the same time, the gradient and jump process of the unknown solution are separately regarded as the strategy function and they are approximated respectively by using two multilayer neural networks as function approximators. Thus, deep learning-based method is used to overcome the “curse of dimensionality” caused by high-dimensional PDE with jump, and the numerical solution is obtained. In addition, this paper proposes a new optimization algorithm based on the existing neural network random optimization algorithm, and compares the results with the traditional optimization algorithm, and achieves good results. Finally, the proposed method is applied to three practical high-dimensional problems: Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, bond pricing under the jump Vasicek model and high-dimensional option pricing model with default risk. The proposed numerical method has obtained satisfactory accuracy and efficiency. The method has important application value and practical significance in investment decision-making, option pricing, insurance and other fields.

This study investigated whether export performance is correlated with innovation. We explicitly considered five types of innovation: a) process innovation; b) product innovation; c) process and product innovation; d) product innovation new to the firm; and e) product innovation new to the market. We en-larged the findings of R&D-export and R&D-investment relations using a vast sample of cross-European firms. We considered innovation as endogenous and determined by R&D through a process characterized by the role of the regional technological environment. Our analysis enabled us to propose an integrated model incorporating R&D, innovation and export, in a framework of simultaneous equations which consider their mutual correlations. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first in recent years to empirically compute the relation between R&D and tangible investment at the micro level. Econometric results showed that product and process innovation are positively linked to the export intensity of European manufacturing firms. The results also showed complementarity effects between the two kinds of innovation. The av-erage effect on export intensity from carrying out process innovation is larger than that found for product innovation, except in cases where the product is new to the market. When both types of innovation have been carried out, a larger effect results than that found for product or process innovation alone. Furthermore, the average marginal effect on export intensity from innovations of any kind among those studied here is highly positive and significant.

This research article focused on discovering appropriate liquidity risk concerns in the financial Sector. Primarily, it deals with the appropriate liquidity factors that affect financial performance services pertained to several liquidity crises and the respective liquidity measures. Liquidity is considered the primary constraint. The Liquidity Ratios are the defective condition of calculating the financial performance services and their respective status. For fulfilling this performance service status prediction, this research use calculation for consistency index procedure. Liquidity index-based predictions have collaborated concerning the price movement in the stock market. The Liquidity will affect the trading and market transparency whenever the price moment varies. To control this trading and not market transparency of liquidity index be employed the greedy approach for estimating the most factor affected by the liquid index. Hence, this research elaborates on the greedy approach today with 25 essential financial factors. Each Panther will have combined with the tractor-confirmed liquidity crisis whenever the factors of liquidity crisis are combined with the actual financial factor, the minimum and maximum Degree of matching are calculated. This calculation determines the factors that affected the Liquidity concerning their exact, Plugin, subsume, and fail condition. Eventually, the search concludes the determination of factors affecting Liquidity concerning the actual finance factor and liquidity crisis. Finally, the result was concluded with the Degree of matching and their efficiency of finding liquidity factors with a successful reasonable result. Based on the Degree of matching result, this research found the actual reason for Liquidity with the help of various financial factors

Climate change has become a major concern for developing countries given the risk that it posses on energy and food independence, and on general productivity. Despite having an energy system with low carbon intensity when compared to other Latin American countries, Colombia is already facing climate change impacts and requires urgent efforts to mitigate them. As a developing country, the challenge is bigger as policies for economic growth should be in line with the global commitment of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. With the aim of contributing to the design of climate policies, this study assesses the impact of economic development on the environment by examining the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Colombia. Statistically validated and stable autoregressive distributed lag models are estimated for three different environmental indicators: carbon dioxide emissions, methane emissions, and ecological footprint. Moreover, the effects of other variables such as urbanization, foreign direct investment, value added of agricultural and industrial sectors, and energy use are analyzed with dynamic simulations. Empirical evidence supports a long-run equilibrium relationship among investigated variables and the existence of an inverted U-shaped EKC relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and methane emissions, and GDP and ecological footprint. Shifting to renewable energy sources and leveraging the use of cleaner technologies in agricultural and industrial sectors are found to be key for economic growth without harming the environment.

The bilateral trade relationship between PRC and ASEAN is close. As early as 2012, China has been the largest trading partner of ASEAN, and ASEAN has also taken the place of the United States as PRC’s second largest trading partner in 2019.This paper uses the theory of ecological population evolution, selects the total import and export volume of PRC and the ten ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2019 as the data sample, studies the bilateral trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, analyzes the competition and symbiotic relationship of bilateral trade between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries and the possibility of trade friction according to the results, and proposes corresponding improvement strategies. According to the results of the population evolution competition model, China has a competitive relationship with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, which is most likely to cause trade friction. China has a biased relationship with Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, which is more likely to cause trade friction. On this basis, in order to further strengthen the trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on improving infrastructure, strengthening independent innovation, seeking cooperation fields and actively investing abroad.

COVID-19 is a well-known respiratory disease spreading worldwide since January 2020, causing many deaths and massive pressure on health systems. This pandemic’s appearance compromised the health services’ sustainability and quality as many procedures were postponed or even canceled out, with an expected increase of adverse events like nosocomial infections, in-hospital deaths, and the worsening of the patients’ clinical status. Therefore, assessing whether the healthcare providers’ performance has changed is paramount. In this case, we evaluated the public hospitals in Portugal as the leading secondary health care providers in the country, which in turn has been highly affected by the pandemic. To this end, we developed a network Data Envelopment Analysis model serially relating efficiency and effectiveness. Using 2,795 observations from public hospitals and 18 variables, we observed consistent drops in efficiency when the pandemic started, followed by a recovery to levels above the pre-pandemic ones. Regarding effectiveness, we observed a positive trend during the evaluated period. In short, these results allow us to conclude that, apart from the great resilience of public healthcare providers, the Portuguese State was not prepared for a pandemic like COVID-19, but still the actions taken (including massive vaccination) were beneficial.

The energy matrix worldwide has been going through difficulties in its discussions - such as irregular exploration, inefficient public policies, and arbitrariness concerning diplomatic and political definitions of those involved in this market. This work's general objective consists in analyzing associations and statistical inferences of the largest world oil producers, assimilating the contributions and singularities of this market from 1993 to 2020. Based on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it was possible to identify the possible inferences and contributions of the ten largest oil producers in the world in more than two decades using statistical analysis through correlation, regression, and statistical analysis of variables. According to the research and the literature on the area, the oil market proposes support to its discussions, mainly in its productive approaches. It is possible to identify this market as a solid link to geopolitical actions, distributing the possibilities through economic bias and socio-cultural and historical factors on a global level.

Bicycling is a tremendously efficient means of transportation both in socio-economic and environmental sustainability parameters. Therefore, they are fast becoming the primary mode of transportation in some other parts of Africa. Quelimane is a city which is found in Mozambique where bicycle-taxi is a major means of transportation. However, very little is known about the social and economic profiles of these city bicycle-taxi riders. Hence, the aim of this study was to determine the socio demographic and economic profile of bicycle-taxi riders. A cross-sectional study survey using a simple random probabilistic sample (n = 357, α = 0.05) was conducted. The questionnaire consisted of 20 items in five major groups, sociodemographic, economics, riding factors, safety and motivational factors. Pearson Chi square, t test and linear regression tests were carried out to test for statistical analysis. The activity is carried out mostly by males (98.9 %), under the age of 35 years. Their academic records, ranking highest, with secondary education background, bicycles are obtained through rental programs in order to perform taxing. After expenses, daily earnings generate a total revenue of USD 5.75. Sex, marital status, house type, years riding, bicycle make and meal per day, are associated with daily revenue income. Bicycle-taxi activity in Quelimane is an income generating activity. Mainly young citizens are involved due to the high unemployment rate. Nonetheless, bicycle taxing created an untapped market for self-employment, where the majority of youths in Quelimane generate their own revenue, thereby improving their livelihood.

Based on data from the Yunnan Province farm household survey, we examine the effect of rural land rights policy on farmers’ income. The regression results show that right significantly raises the total income of farmers, with farm income serving as the primary source of total income. After performing numerous robustness tests, using instrumental variables to handle endogeneity and arriving at the same conclusion, the result is still valid. According to the heterogeneity analysis, in the sample of households with long-term migrant workers, the confirmation of rural land rights significantly increases total and nonfarm income while decreasing farm income. Furthermore, total income includes nonfarm income, which reflects the effect of different farmers' optimal labor allocation based on the external market environment. According to the impact mechanism anal-ysis, right can increase farmers' total income by promoting land transfer, and farmers in less developed areas are more willing to increase their income by land transfer out.

Food waste is one of the greatest challenge to sustainability in developed and developing countries. In the former, food waste is concentrated in the final part of the chain. Too Good To Go is a digital platform aimed to prevent food waste, where consumers can buy magic boxes from different outlets containing food products that are approaching their end-of-life. However, the mechanism of the platform enable the outlets to publish their offering much in advance of the pick-up time, raising the question whether the food sold on the platform is effectively a leftover or a planned production. Our empirical study gathers data from over 1200 outlets in Rome on the Too Good To Go platform.

Using the 2011-2020 digital inclusive finance data released by Peking University and the index system constructed by the Blue Book of China Rural Revitalization and Development Index (2018), this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of the digital inclusive finance and the rural revitaliza-tion from time and space dimensions with the help of kernel density estimation, Markov chain and Moran index. Using The Gini coefficient decomposition method to analyze the source of differ-ences in digital inclusive finance, and then using the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and ge-ographically weighted regression (GWR) model to study the boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization from the perspective of spatial aggregation and spatial differentia-tion, respectively. The results show that: (1) The growth rate of China's digital inclusive finance slows down year by year, and the inter-provincial differences increase year by year and show gradient characteristics, indicating that there may be a trend of multipolar differentiation. The overall level of Rural Revitalization shows an increasing trend, and the gap between provinces is still apparent. (2) The evolution of digital inclusive finance and rural revitalization is a slow ad-justment process, and there has been no cross-level jump in the past ten years. In digital inclusive finance, the liquidity from the highest and lowest levels to the medium level is high. However, the liquidity in the states of rural revitalization development level is not high. (3) Rural revitalization has a positive spatial spillover effect. The level of rural revitalization in the western area is signif-icantly lower than in the eastern area. At the same time, there is no significant difference between the east and central areas. The depth of the use of digital inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on the revitalization and development of rural areas, indicating that the further promotion of digital inclusive finance business in rural areas can substantially boost the revitalization of rural areas. (4) The boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization shows prominent spatial differentiation characteristics. The depth of use and the degree of digitization generally show a positive impact. The central and eastern coastal cities have the highest impact, decreasing toward the southwest and northeast. The areas with the lowest usage depth impact are clustered in the northeast, and the areas with the lowest digitization impact are clustered in the southwest.

COVID-19, a global health crisis, occurred unexpectedly and has led to global transformation over all countries in the world today. While COVID-19 had claimed lives and led to an economic crisis, the impacts on the financial market cannot be overemphasized. Considering the previous financial crisis, which occurred due to poor regulations and unchecked misconduct by financial market stakeholders, COVID-19 is the first to mention an indirect crisis that almost has no direct relationship to the financial system. Thus, this paper explores the impacts of COVID-19 from a stochastic approach on Local markets by applying the GARCH model to measure the level of volatility of two (2) US stock indexes (NASDAQ and NYSE) and a Europe index (EURONEXT). Our results show that volatility existed before COVID-19, but the volatility rate increased after COVID-19, possibly due to the COVID-19 shock. We also explore the Markov-Switching Dynamic Regression (MSDR) model to corroborate our findings. We validated that there is a very high persistent volatility for all the considered local markets at the early stage COVID-19 period.

Demographic change is leading to the aging of German society. As long as the baby boom co-horts are still of working age, the working population will also age - and decline as soon as this baby boom generation gradually reaches retirement age. At the same time, there has been a trend towards increasing absenteeism (times of inability to work) in companies since the zero years, with the number of days of absence increasing with age. We present a novel stochastic forecast approach that combines population forecasting with forecasts of labor force participation trends, considering epidemiological aspects. For this, we combine a stochastic Monte Carlo-based cohort-component forecast of the population with projections of labor force participation rates and morbidity rates. This article examines the purely demographic effect on the economic costs associated with such absenteeism due to the inability to work. Under expected future employment patterns and constant morbidity patterns, absenteeism is expected by close to 5 percent by 2050 relative to 2020, associated with increasing economic costs of almost 3 percent. Our results illustrate how strongly the pronounced baby boom/ baby bust phenomenon determines demographic development in Germany in the midterm.

A vivid debate is ongoing in the scientific community about statistical malpractice and the related publication bias. No general consensus exists on the consequences and this is reflected in heterogeneous rules defined by scientific journals on the use and reporting of statistical inference. This paper aims at discussing how the debate is perceived by the agricultural economics community and implications for our roles as researchers, contributors to the scientific publication process, and teachers. We start by summarizing the current state of the p-value debate and the replication crisis, and commonly applied statistical practices in our community. This is followed by motivation, design, results and discussion of a survey on statistical knowledge and practice among the researchers in the agricultural economics community in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. We conclude that beyond short-term measures like changing rules of reporting in publications, a cultural change regarding empirical scientific practices is needed that stretches across all our roles in the scientific process. Acceptance of scientific work should largely be based on the theoretical and methodological rigor and where the perceived relevance arises from the questions asked, the methodology employed, and the data used but not from the results generated. Revised and clear journal guidelines, the creation of resources for teaching and research, and public recognition of good practice are suggested measures to move forward.

This paper examines certain implications from the literature on Tiebout’s model of local gov-ernment service provision, particularly Hamilton’s extension of the model to include local control of land use and property taxation. Our empirical analysis focuses on the use of fiscal zoning to lower property tax rates, a topic that has not been addressed in the extensive Tiebout literature. Using data for over 100 municipalities in the Miami, Florida, metropolitan area, we specify property tax rates as a function of fiscal zoning measures, other municipal characteristics, and tax mimicking. We conclude that single-family zoning is by far the most important variable ex-plaining municipal property tax rates.

This study contributes to the debate on accessibility of higher education in Chile, focusing on both socioeconomic and geospatial dimensions of access to university study. The central question we address in this paper is the following: Does geography (physical distance and neighborhood effects) play a significant role in determining accessibility of higher education in Chile? We use Heckman probit-type (Heckit) models to adjust for selection in the process of completing the trajectory towards higher education – that is, pre-selection, application to study at university, and ultimately admission (or denial) to a higher education institution. The results shows that the geospatial elements have a significant local effect on the student’s application and access to Chilean universities.

We study the efficient computation of power indices for weighted voting games with precoalitions amongst subsets of players (reflecting, e.g., ideological proximity) using the paradigm of dynamic programming. Starting from the state-of-the-art algorithms for computing the Banzhaf and Shapley-Shubik indices for weighted voting games we present a framework for fast algorithms for the three most common power indices with precoalitions, i.e. the Owen index, the Banzhaf-Owen index and the Symmetric Coalitional Banzhaf index, and point out why our new algorithms are applicable for large numbers of players. We discuss implementations of our algorithms for the three power indices with precoalitions in C++ and review computing times as well as storage requirements.

The propagation of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reshaped the relationship between income and food-away-from-home (FAFH) expenditure in Mexico during 2020. Although the number of households participating in this market fell across income deciles and regions due to the pandemic, the impact on their budget shares is not uniform. Using data from the Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH) 2020, we estimated an Engel curve of the Working-Lesser functional form for FAFH. Among the independent variables are the number of family members 65 years of age and older, and dummies to indicate whether the household experienced food insecurity or received remittances. The estimation was carried out following the Heckman two-step method, suitable for censored-response data. The results suggest that the budget share for FAFH drops as income increases. The number of older adults and food insecurity discourage the decision to participate in FAFH expenditure and increase its budget share, whereas remittances encourage participation and reduce its budget share. The corrected conditional elasticity is 0.4609; the sign and the magnitude indicate that FAFH is a necessity good.

The present study aims to examine the role the social and digital infrastructures might have during the building process of the Smart Regions in the Italian context. Within this framework, it is possible to identify some essential research questions, such as why the same regions are growing faster than the other and which type of effects could be generated from the different connectivity between the regions. Since the Smart Region concept is still composed of technical reports, pilot projects and experiences from a limited number of cities on the international stage, this work it is tried to use a new approach, applying either a neuronal model, the Self-Organizing Maps, and the multivariate regression approach, to extrapolate the existence of possible future conditions for the rising of Smart Regions in Italy, studying the evolution of the used database during the period 2005 – 2016. From the analysis what emerged is that the only bridging social capital dimension, empirically speaking, feed the regional innovation growth because the structure of social relationship facilitates interactions across social, political and economic agents; but there are institutional deficits, most pronounced in Italy and other European countries.

This study is the first to examine whether the performance of credit rating, one of the most important data-based decision-making of banks, can be improved by using banking system log data that is extensively accumulated inside the bank for system operation. This study uses the log data recorded for the mobile app system of Kakaobank, a leading internet bank used by more than 14 million people in Korea. After generating candidate variables from Kakaobank's vast log data, we develop a credit scoring model by utilizing variables with high information values. Consequently, the discrimination power of the new model compared to the credit bureau grades was significantly improved by 1.84% points based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics. Therefore, the results of this study imply that if a bank utilizes its log data that have already been extensively accumulated inside the bank, decision-making systems, including credit scoring, can be efficiently improved at a low cost.

The analysis and measurement of poverty is a crucial issue in the field of social science. Poverty is a multidimensional notion that can be measured using composite indicators relevant to synthesizing statistical indicators. Subjective choices could, however, affect these indicators. We propose interval-based composite indicators to avoid the problem, enabling us in this context to obtain robust and reliable measures. Based on a relevant conceptual model of poverty we have identified, we will consider all the various factors identified. Then, considering a different random configuration of the various factors, we will compute a different composite indicator. We can obtain a different interval for each region based on the distinct factor choices on the different assumptions for constructing the composite indicator. So we will create an interval-based composite indicator based on the results obtained by the Monte-Carlo simulation of all the different assumptions. The different intervals can be compared, and various rankings for poverty can be obtained. For their parameters, such as center, minimum, maximum, and range, the poverty interval composite indicator can be considered and compared. The results demonstrate a relevant and consistent measurement of the indicator and the shadow sector's relevant impact on the final measures.

The Capital Asset Pricing Model is a widely applied model to describe risky markets and to deduce their systematic risk. Its estimation, therefore, remains an important task in Econo-financial studies. Empirically, it focuses on the impact of return interval on the betas. Existing studies somehow turn around the same idea of measuring the value of the beta according to the uniform intervals of time during a fixed period. However, it is noticed easily, and especially in the last decade that many factors such as socio-political, and Econo-environmental ones have led to a perturbation in the timeline of the worldwide development, and especially in countries and regions having political changes. This led us to introduce a new idea of risk estimation taking into account the non-uniform changes in markets by introducing a non-uniform wavelet analysis. We aim to explain the Econo-political situation of Arab spring countries and the effect of the revolutions on the market beta. The main novelty is firstly the construction of a dynamic backward-forward model for missing data, and next the application of random non-uniform wavelets. The proposed procedure will be acted empirically on a sample corresponding to TUNINDEX stock as a representative index of the Tunisian market actively traded over the period January 14, 2016, to January 13, 2021. The chosen 5-years period is important as it constitutes the first 5-years-after the revolution and depends strongly on the Socio-Econo-political stability in the revolutionary countries.

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between digital inclusive finance and rural income, and demonstrates that digital inclusive finance plays a significant role in promoting rural income, based on the 2012-2018 panel data of 17 cities in Henan Province of China. Further dimensional research unveils that all of its breadth of coverage, depth of use and degree of digitization present significant positive correlation with rural income, and a robustness test was conducted through the sub-sample method. In addition, according to regression analysis on the influencing factors of digital inclusive finance through the Tobit model, the level of economic development, the Internet popularity rate and the urbanization rate have a positive effect on the development of digital inclusive finance in Henan, while the income gap between urban and rural areas and the degree of opening up have a negative effect. Finally, predicated on the analysis of the restrictive factors of Henan’s digital inclusive finance in increasing rural income, the paper puts forward specific policy proposals based on the native state quo.

Nested structure is a structural feature that is conducive to system stability formed by the co-evolution of species in mutualistic ecosystems, and reflects the ability of ecosystem stability to be restored to a stable state again after being destroyed. The co-opetition relationship and value flow between industrial sectors in the global value chain are similar to the mutualistic ecosystem, and the pattern of the global economic system is always changing in dynamic equilibrium. Nestedness theory is used in this article to define the generalist and specialist sectors in the global value chain to analyze the changes in the global supply pattern. Then we study the mechanism of the global economic system to reach a stable equilibrium and the role of different sectors in the steady of the economic system, so as to provide countermeasures for enhancing the stability of the global economic system. At the end of the article, the domestic trade network, export trade network and import trade network of each country are extracted, and an econometric model is designed to analyze how the microstructure of the production system affects a country’s macroeconomic performance, thereby deriving the conclusion that the stability of the international trade network is crucial to a country's economic development.

. In this article, a search for a calculation method and an analysis of performance indicators of mutual investment funds is carried out. Many factors can influence the return on investments in portfolio investments, which makes the choice of the fund incredibly difficult. However, in addition to the fact that it is difficult to determine which indicators should be given more attention and which should be omitted, it is not so easy to get these data. Some of them are publicly available on the Internet, while others can only be found in trading systems that are not accessible to people outside of this area. The article proves that a well-trained neural network can easily find existing patterns between risk and expected return on investment. It is a well-trained neural network that provides the ability to use the "what-if" function to justify your choice on real factors, as well as the ability to download available data and calculate the estimated income and its changes. This makes it much easier to choose a Fund, especially for inexperienced investors. The article also presents the results of a study of the dependence of estimated income on correlation, standard deviation, and volatility using a trained neural network. According to the theory, higher values of these three factors correspond to a higher amount of income. The obtained graphs of the calculated income dependence on correlation, standard deviation, and volatility confirmed the correctness of the neural network training and compliance with the relations described in the theory. The paper presents graphs of the dependence of the estimated income on the beta and alpha coefficients. The higher the beta and alpha indicators, the higher the expected return on investment. This corresponds to the dependency accepted in the model. When the values of the beta and alpha coefficients increase, the income also increases, which is completely consistent with the theory.

Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome. To identify these factors correlated with COVID-19 outcome, country aggregate data provided by the Lancet COVID-19 Commission subjected to correlation analysis. Socioeconomic and health-related variables were used to predict mortality in the top 5 most affected countries using ridge regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. Our data reveal that predictors related to demographics and social disadvantage correlate with COVID-19 mortality per million and that XGBoost performed better than ridge regression. Taken together, our findings suggest that the health consequence of the current pandemic is not just confined to indiscriminate impact of a viral infection but that these preventable effects are amplified based on pre-existing health and socioeconomic inequalities.

Economics has long sought to bridge the principles of microeconomics into the realm of macroeconomics. This paper presents a formal attempt to do so by using a maximum entropy based approach derived from statistical mechanics coupled with subjective game theory and elements from political philosophy. This approach is then applied to income distributions and to the Cobb-Douglas production function, to create a framework for future applications, and to illustrate where past work had made implicit assumptions regarding the system. The paper then explores the consequences of the approach, illustrating self-contradictions in the political philosophy of distributive justice, formally deriving an equation of state for the transactions on the Bitcoin network, and deriving from this the ideal gas law and polytropic process for an economy proving that expansionary monetary policy is extractive – not stimulative.

Background: The methods used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) household surveys have not changed in four decades; however, LMIC societies have changed substantially and now face unprecedented rates of urbanisation and urbanisation of poverty. This mismatch may result in unintentional exclusion of vulnerable and mobile urban populations. We compare three survey method innovations with standard survey methods in Kathmandu, Dhaka, and Hanoi, and summarize feasibility of our innovative methods in terms of time, cost, skill requirements, and experiences. Methods: We used descriptive statistics and regression techniques to compare respondent characteristics in samples drawn with innovative versus standard survey designs and household definitions, adjusting for sample probability weights and clustering. Feasibility of innovative methods was evaluated using a thematic framework analysis of focus group discussions with survey field staff, and via survey planner budgets. Results: We found that a common household definition excluded single adult (46.9%) and migrant headed households (6.7%), as well as non-married (8.5%), unemployed (10.5%), disabled (9.3%), and studying adults (14.3%). Further, standard two-stage sampling resulted in fewer single adult and non-family households than an innovative area-microcensus design; however, two-stage sampling resulted in more tent and shack dwellers. Our survey innovations provided good value for money and field staff experiences were neutral or positive. Staff recommended streamlining field tools and pairing technical and survey content experts during fieldwork. Conclusions: This evidence of exclusion of vulnerable and mobile urban populations in LMIC household surveys is deeply concerning, and underscores the need to modernize survey methods and practices.

The tourism sector in general and the hotelier in particular face the challenge of managing appropriate measures to deal with the covid-19 pandemic. In this sense it is useful to know what the measures are most demanded by the clientele. This research, by analyzing the variance (ANOVA) of a factor concluded that women are more demanding than men in terms of the level of demand in relation to the measures to be taken in hotels. This, as a practical application, allows to know more accurately the expectations, demands and demands of the client segmented by sex, in order to satisfy and improve the tourist experiences.

This article attempts to identify factors impacting on the quantity of municipal waste in Polish 2478 communes (LAU-2), taking into account the variability of particular determinants influence depending on their regional diversification. The analysis covers the years 2005-2018. The dependent variable is the volume of municipal waste in kg per capita, whereas the group of determinants include: economic and human development, uncontrolled dumping sites, population density, population at the working age, migration, tourism, urbanization, dwellings and housing, retail sales, entities, education and investments in waste management; The geographically weighted regression with spatial error term (GWR-SEM) was employed in this study. The model enabled not only the specification of the waste production determinants, but also the analysis of the variability in the strength and direction of dependencies occurring between the examined variables in individual communes. The results proved that the higher the level of education the less waste is generated (in the north-central Poland); the business entities and working-age population are crucial for the waste quantity in communes of eastern Poland; the factors most considerably as to regional range affecting the waste quantity are urban and business development; as to strength–higher education and the share of working age individuals;

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods of time that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of growth across the centuries. In particular, shocks originated by pandemics in recent times seem to have permanent effect in growth. Moreover, our results show that the unemployment rate increases and it becomes more persistent after a pandemic. In this regard, our findings support the design and implementation of counter-cyclical policies to soften the shock of the pandemic.

The rapid development of China's economy has led to a rapid increase in energy production and use. Among them, the excessive consumption of coal in fossil energy consumption is the leading cause of air pollution in China. This paper incorporates renewable energy innovation, fossil energy consumption and air pollution into a unified analysis framework, and uses spatial measurement models to investigate the spatial effects of renewable energy green innovation and fossil energy consumption on air pollution in China, and decomposes the total impact into direct and indirect effects. influences. The empirical results show that China's air pollution, renewable energy green innovation and fossil energy consumption are extremely uneven in geographical space, generally showing the characteristics of high in the east and low in the west, and showing a strong spatial aggregation phenomenon. Fossil energy consumption will lead to increased air pollution, and the replacement of fossil fuels with clean and renewable energy is an important means of controlling pollution emissions. The direct and indirect effects of renewable energy green innovation on air pollution are significantly negative, indicating that renewable energy green innovation not only suppresses local air pollution, but also suppresses air pollution in neighboring areas. The consumption of fossil energy will significantly increase the local air pollution, and the impact on the SO2 and Dust&Smoke pollution in the adjacent area is not very obvious. It is recommended to strengthen investment in renewable energy green innovation, reduce the proportion of traditional fossil energy consumption, and pay attention to the spatial connection and spillover of renewable energy green innovation.

Target 9.c of the 2015 United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) specifically addresses increasing access to information and communication technology (ICT) resources, and striving for universal access to the internet by 2020. The present study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of the youth related national strategies implemented in this regard by a select number of countries in the Middle East region. The study does so, by relying on a spatial bivariate copula regression analysis of data on youth respondents from five countries, extracted from the 2018 Program for international students’ assessment (PISA). Focusing specifically on evaluating the availability of ICT resources to the youth population, and also identifying the impact of ICT resources on youth subjective well-being in the region, we find that except for the UAE and Qatar that have above OECD average youth performance on the ICT resource index, youth from the remaining countries reported below OECD level average access to ICT resources. The within region cross-country comparative analysis of ICT resources availability to the youth population at home, also highlighted significant heterogeneity across the five countries, post 2015 SDG adoption by UN country members. Furthermore, looking at the impact of ICT resources on youth well-being, controlling for not only cross-country spatial correlations, and factors such as home educational resources, cultural possessions at home, parental occupation status, youth expected occupation status, economic and socio-cultural status, age, gender, and grade level in school; we found that every standard deviation increase in ICT resources to the youth population in the region raises their self-expressed sense of belonging in school by 1.88% standard deviations. Given the empowering nature of ICT resources to youth, and the potential of both to support national as well as regional economic development initiatives, a concerted effort to ease ICT resources diffusion by member countries in the middle east region could assist not only each country in its own development path, but also the region as a whole to live up to its growth potential by the 2030.

The issue of when and how to return to business following COVID-19 lockdown is occupying the minds of policymakers, C-Suite executives and managers the world over. We are concerned by the extent to which it appears that these decisions are being taken on a wing and a prayer, while being pitched to the public as though they shouldn’t be questioned. In this paper, we compare the likely impact of COVID-19 infections from travellers coming from the main countries that visit Greece, to the revenues they generate for the Greek economy. We find that arrivals from some countries should be excluded but aren't, while arrivals from other countries that are excluded perhaps shouldn't be. We show that a rational choice around limitations on the reopening of tourist markets depends on the demand for travel to Greece. We conclude that the current policy is largely economically rational, with some exceptions, but also speculate that Greece may not be ready to handle the resulting infection load.

This paper surveys estimates of the transmission features of the novel coronavirus, and then proposes a model to address sample-selection bias in estimated determinants of infection. Containment assumptions of the infection forecasting models depend on assumed effects of policies and self-regulating behavior. In the commons dilemma of the pandemic, the perceived ‘low risks’ of unregulated marginal choices do not reflect the full social cost, implying non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to reduce mortality can enhance social welfare. As more economic activity renews with liftings of restrictive NPI (RNPI), a critical question concerns the ability of milder NPI (MNPI) and voluntary precautions to mitigate the risk of greater infections and deaths while also limiting the pandemic’s economic damage and its social costs. Ineffective NPI could lead to continued COVID-19 waves and new types of crises, worsened expectations and delayed economic recoveries. From the central range of surveyed estimates of transmission and alternative herd-immunity-threshold estimates, a ‘worst-case’ virus guidepost suggests eventual deaths of around 25 to 41 million worldwide and 1.1 to 1.7 million in the U.S. needed to reach herd immunity with no vaccine or treatment. The most optimistic study surveyed (theoretical model from a non-reviewed preprint study) combined with the low end of the range of the estimated mortality rate suggests 6 to 9 million deaths worldwide and 250 to 370 thousand in the U.S. to reach herd immunity. Successes in the mix of NPI, treatments, and vaccine can limit the eventual global death toll of the virus. Improved estimation models for forecasting and decision making may assist in better targeting the local timings and mix of NPI. Diagnostic tests for the virus have been largely limited to symptomatic cases, causing possible sample selection bias. A recursive bivariate probit model of infection and testing is proposed along with several possible applications from cross-section or panel-data estimation. Multiple potential explanatory variables, data sources, and estimation needs are specified and discussed.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze market reflexivity in agricultural futures contracts with different maturities. To this end, we apply a four-dimensional Hawkes model to storable and non-storable agricultural commodities. We find market reflexivity for both storable and non-storable commodities. Reflexivity accounts for about 50 to 70 percent of the total trading activity. Differences between nearby and deferred contracts are less pronounced for non-storable than for storable commodities. We conclude that the co-existence of exogenous and endogenous price dynamics does not change qualitative characteristics of the price discovery process that have been observed earlier without consideration of market reflexivity.

Economic globalization has increased interdependence, particularly among the developing economies. This has increased the potential of migration across the national borders. In a similar context, the Indian economy has witnessed a rapid growth in the number of migrants after the phase of globalization. The rise in the migrant stock has led to a massive increase in the income generated through international borders in the form of remittances. India has become one of the top recipients of remittances with 79$ billion inflows in 2018. The major factor driving the growth of migrant remittances has been the monetary incentives that raise the standard of living of the recipient’s households. The rise in the income level of these households also affects other economic parameters including consumption and investment. Apart from this, the pattern of migration has also changed since the past few years with skilled workers migrating to the developed economies and unskilled ones migrating to the Gulf economies. In this context, the present study examines the trend and pattern of remittance inflows in India for the period of 1975-2017. Additionally, the study explores how remittance inflows affect the level of household consumption and investments. This relationship was examined using a two-stage least squares method by framing a set of simultaneous equations. The findings of the two-stage least square estimates indicate that though personal remittances do not impact the gross domestic product of the economy directly. But, an increase in the inflow of personal remittances leads to a rise in consumption and investment which in turn plays an important role in determining the Gross Domestic Product of the economy.

In social sciences, a plethora of studies utilize nominal data to establish the relationship between the variables. This, in turn, requires the correct use of correlation technique. The choice of correlation technique depends upon the underlying assumptions and power of the test of significance. The objective of the research is to explore the best measure of association for nominal data in terms of size, power and bias in estimation. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the Phi and Pearson correlation statistics performs equally well in terms of size, power, and bias for naturally dichotomous variables. When both variables are artificially dichotomized, the Tetrachoric statistic has an edge in terms of bias to Pearson correlation statistic. If one variable is continuous and other is artificially dichotomized, the Biserial correlation measure turns out to be less biased as compared to Pearson statistic although both statistics exhibit similar power and size properties. If one variable is continuous and other is naturally dichotomized, it is hard to choose between the Point Biserial and Pearson correlation measures. Finally, if one variable is naturally dichotomous and other is artificially dichotomized, correlation coefficient V is compared with Pearson, Phi and Tetrachoric correlation techniques in terms of bias in estimate. The results indicate that the Tetrachoric statistic considerably overestimates the correlation value against non-normal distributions. Pearson and Phi correlation slightly underestimate the correlation value. In contrast, the correlation statistic V perform well.

Market-orientation is widely applied to understand the expected interaction of smallholder farmers with input and output markets. Commonly used interchangeably with market participation, it is fast becoming a key milestone for attaining smallholder commercialization. This study introduces the term into the disaster resilience, seed systems and livelihoods context. Using a mixed methods approach, 120 smallholder farmers in a drought-affected district of South Africa were sampled, and information collected for analysis. The result shows that most of the farmers rely on purchased seeds and fertilizers for crop production, and on average sold 62% of their farm produce. A market orientation index (MOI) of 55% was estimated, showing that the farmers were market oriented. The farm size, quantities of seeds and fertilizer purchased, value of crop produced, amount received from crop sales, distance to markets and access to credit were found significant in determining their market orientation. Policy interventions were made to improve access to irrigation, seed varieties and extension delivery in the area. The finding has implications for development efforts at rebuilding after a natural disaster, as well as sourcing food aid from local smallholder farmers by humanitarian actors.

It shows the monetary investigation in west countries the big flow in economy by the gross value change effects, also the value of debt policy with debt management strategies to control the budgetary risk of long-term economy from sustainability. The intellectual policies of inflation, GDP, trade, and services and merchandise trade has effected on the West African country’s monetary policies. The implication of trade by a lag of exchange rate indicators has a positive and significant effect. The estimated results reflect the dynamic implication of trade with liquidity and proper monitoring policies. The GDP, gross value (GVA), debt policies, equity of public administration, trade in service and merchandise trade is positive and significant, all are significant. We suggest the optimum control of liquidity with trade service policy recommendations in different countries. The research method was based on 5 countries from the 16 countries of western African and elaborated by their individual indicators with the least square method. The gross value of debts and public administration controlled the development aim of an entire state with strategic and planned environment for state and reduce the level of inflation in small and enterprise section and the results analyzed the policy makers implement planned in implication of trade with domestic currency and long run endogeneity. The results analyzed the monetary policies affecting the level of growth of an individual country.

The impact of monetary policies and their implementation by exchange rate covered the economic condition of Ghana. The social inclusion and conversion factors change the implemented policies of nations, where the real price, trade, technology, a price rate and price level of ratio take an important part of growth. The reform of the financial sector favors the free floating of the exchange rate and global trade by under the premise of flexible exchange rates. The tragedy of country growth and exchange rate toward a trajectory of growth with the growth-enhancing effect through social inclusion, conversion factors, price level ratio, exchange rate, merchant rate, export and trade services. The research study is based on secondary study and social inclusion equity indicators with public resources, building human resources and social protection for economic development has determined. The monetary policies are classified by the different evidence and trade indicators. The significant influence of growth and internal policies has affected trade and exchange rates with growth and reserve policies. The results have computed by linear regression and it proved that social inclusion and alternative conversion factors impact on the global trade and create short term binary relationship.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is considered to be one of the leading health issues in Thailand. CVD not only contributes to an increase in the number of hospital admissions year on year but also impacts on the rising health care expenditure for the treatment and long-term care of CVD patients. Therefore, this study is aimed at examining the impacts of risk reduction strategies on the number of CVD hospital admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and the costs of hospitalisation. To estimate such impacts a CVD cost-offset model wasapplied using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. The number of the mid-year population was classified by age, gender and the CVD risk factor profiles from the recent Thai National Health Examination Survey (NHES) IV. This survey was chosen as the baseline population. The CVD risk factor profiles included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and smoking status. The Asia-Pacific Collaborative Cohort Study (APCCS) equation was applied to predict the probability of developing CVD over the next eight-year period. Estimates on the following were obtained from the model: (1.) the CVD events both fatal and non-fatal; (2.) the difference between the projected number of deaths and the actual number of deaths in that population; (3.) the number of patients who are expected to live with CVD; (4.) the DALYs from the estimated number of fatal and non-fatal events; (5.) the cost of hospital admissions. Four CVD risk strategy scenarios were investigated as follows: (1.) the do nothing scenario; (2.) the optimistic scenario; (3.) achieve the UN millennium development goal; and (4.) the worst-case scenario. The findings showed that over the next eight years there are likely to be 3,297,428 recorded cases of CVD; 5,870,049 cases of DALYs; and, approximately ฿57,000 million, ($1.9 billion), is projected as the total cost of hospital admissions. However, if the current health policy can reduce the levels of risk factors as defined in the optimistic scenario or such policy meets the specifications of the UN millennium development goal,there would be a significant reduction in the number of hospital admissions. These are estimated to be a reduction of 522,179 male and 515,416 female cases. With these results it is expected that health care costs would save approximately ฿9,000 million, ($298.3 million), for CVD and 900,000 million of DALYs over the next eight years. However, if there is an upward trend in the risk factors as predicted in the worst-case scenario, then there will be an increase of 428,220 CVD cases; consequently, DALYs cases may rise by 766,029 while the hospitalisation costs may increase by approximately ฿7,000 million, ($232.1 million). Based on our findings, reducing the levels of CVD risk factors in the population will drastically reduce: (1.) the number of CVD cases; (2.) DALYs cases; and (3.) health care costs. Therefore it is recommended that the health policy should enhance the primary prevention programs which would be targeted at reducing the CVD risk factors in the population.

The polynomial functional specification is widely used in environmental and ecological economics. When different powers of the same variable enter to the specification the elasticity of explained variable with respect to that variable should be obtained using the elasticity formula. Since, in this case the elasticity itself is a function, one need to calculate it at a certain point, to have a general idea about the response of explained variable to the change in explanatory variable. The mainly used point is mean of the variables entering to the elasticity formula. Sometimes, the minimum and maximum points also used for comparison purposes. One should careful in interpreting the response of explanatory variable to the change in the variable entering to the specification with its different powers. This study revisits some methodological points regarding the calculation and interpretation of responses in the above-mentioned cases.

In developed countries, especially the big-sized ones like Australia and the USA, a car is almost an inevitable necessity to carry out daily activities. Due to this, used cars have become a great alternative to brand new cars because of their cost effectiveness. In this work, estimation of prices of used cars based on numerous factors is studied statistically. Data is based on prices of used cars sold across Australia. Statistical methods like correlation and permutation tests using linear regression model, exact tests and non-parametric bootstrapping is implemented to study the relationship of price with mileage and year of manufacture of the car using p-values and null hypothesis. Predictions are also made on the price by calculating a 95% confidence interval (CI) of median prices in small portions of the dataset. The study presents potential ideas for understanding correlation between variables and parameters in business studies.

Climate change is a buzzword in the world. Scientist has approved it as global warming with its projection of undesired and unpredicted frequent extreme events and their vulnerabilities not only at present but also at future. There is an assumption of occurrence of adaptive capacity and behavior of farmers in agriculture production activity at some extent to neutralize climate change vulnerabilities of flood and landslides on paddy production. This paper empirically examines the effects of climate change in paddy production and farmer’s adaptive behaviors to neutralize such climatic shocks and events in paddy production by employing CD production function based econometric model. The study employed primary data collected through 642 household surveys. The study finds that climatic shocks and events have huge loss (60%) in paddy production and revenue income in such plot where farmers have not indigenous knowledge and practices. But both small and larger farmers who have adaptive capacity and behavior with their indigenous knowledge have less loss in paddy production and revenue income, although they have heterogeneity in their socio economic characteristics (income, asset holding, literacy, experience, land holding and age). The farmers who have used adaptive behavior have indigenous knowledge and experiences including bamboo wall construction to control flood and landslides and seed change to resist climatic shocks and events. In hilly region, the farmers have not sufficient alternative measures, except both adaptive measures because of their poverty, illiteracy and remote locations. The study finds their higher effective level to minimize vulnerabilities to paddy production and revenue per farm plot, although these adaptive behaviors are cost effective and local entity. Comparatively, bamboo wall construction is more effective measure in the paddy production than others are (seed switch) to minimize the flooding materials from the flood and the landslides. Thus, low cost indigenous adaption behavior of farmers is effective measure to climate change and climate change induced disasters and events vulnerability in paddy production.

This study have uniquely mad use of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models to address the core of the threes objectives set out in view of the focus to add meaningful value to knowledge exploration. The outcome of the research have testify the achievements of this through successful nine months out-of-sample forecasts produced from the program codes, with indicating best model choices from the empirical estimation. In addition, the results also provide description of risks produced from the uncertainty Fan Chart, which clearly outlined possible downside and upside risks to tourist visitations in the country. In the conclusion, it was suggested that downside risks to the low level tourist arrival can be managed through collaboration between authorities concerned with the management of tourist arrivals in the country.

Model selection and model averaging have been the popular approaches in handling modelling uncertainties. Fan and Li(2006) laid out a unified frame work for variable selection via penalized likelihood. The tuning parameter selection is vital in the optimization problem for the penalized estimators in achieving consistent selection and optimal estimation. Since the OLSpost-LASSO estimator by Belloni and Chernozhukov (2013), few studies have focused on the finite sample performances of the class of OLS post-penalty estimators with the tuning parameter choice determined by different tuning parameter selection approaches. We aim to supplement the existing model selection literature by studying such a class of OLS post-selection estimators. Inspired by the Shrinkage Averaging Estimator (SAE) by Schomaker(2012) and the Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) criterion by Hansen (2007), we further propose a Shrinkage Mallows Model Averaging (SMMA) estimator for averaging high dimensional sparse models. Based on the Monte Carlo design by Wang et al. (2009) which features an expanding sparse parameter space as the sample size increases, our Monte Carlo design further considers the effect of the effective sample size and the degree of model sparsity on the finite sample performances of model selection and model averaging estimators. From our data examples, we find that the OLS post-SCAD(BIC) estimator in finite sample outperforms most of the current penalized least squares estimators as long as the number of parameters does not exceed the sample size. In addition, the SMMA performs better given sparser models. This supports the use of the SMMA estimator when averaging high dimensional sparse models.

In social & health sciences, many statistical procedures and estimation techniques rely on the underlying distributional assumption of normality of the data. Non-normality may lead to incorrect statistical inferences. This study evaluates the performance of selected normality tests on the stringency framework for the skewed alternative space. Stringency concept allows us to rank the tests uniquely. Bonett & Seier test (T_w) turns out to be the best statistics for slightly skewed alternatives and the Anderson-Darling (AD), Chen-Shapiro (CS), Shapiro-Wilk (W) and Bispo, Marques, & Pestana, (BCMR) statistics are the best choices for moderately skewed alternative distributions. Maximum loss of Jarque-Bera (JB) and its robust form (RJB), in terms of deviations from the power envelope, is greater than 50% even for large sample sizes which makes them less attractive in testing the hypothesis of normality against the moderately skewed alternatives. On balance, all selected normality tests except T_w and COIN performed exceptionally well against the highly skewed alternative space.

Relying on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) extract from the cross-national data sample on the environmental affection and cognition of adolescent students, and seemingly unrelated bivariate weighted ordered probit regression modeling, this study adopts a national perspective to investigate the determinants of adolescent students' awareness and expectations about nuclear power technology and nuclear waste in the UAE. Identification of model parameters is achieved through maximum simulated likelihood estimation. The findings show that each level increase in UAE youth's interest in ecosystem services and sustainability raises their awareness of nuclear electrical power and nuclear waste by 13.5%, while reducing by 2.4% their level of optimism towards the technology. Furthermore, we find significant heterogeneity in youth awareness and expectations about nuclear power technology across the seven Emirates. Accounting for all other factors (including interest in ecosystem services), UAE youth awareness about nuclear electrical power technology appears to not significantly influence their expectations about the evolution of this technology for the next 20 years. Given that the UAE first nuclear power plant ``Barakah'' is scheduled to start operations end of 2019 beginning 2020, and the typical long life-span of nuclear wastes, our results provide important insights for developing sustainable nuclear energy policies and establishing a long-term nuclear energy program in the UAE.

XGBoost is recognized as an algorithm with exceptional predictive capacity. Models for a binary response indicating the existence of accident claims vs. no claims can be used to identify the determinants of traffic accidents. We compare the relative performances of logistic regression and XGBoost approaches for predicting the existence of accident claims using telematics data. The dataset contains information from an insurance company about individuals’ driving patterns – including total annual distance driven and percentage of total distance driven in urban areas. Our findings show that logistic regression is a suitable model given its interpretability and good predictive capacity. XGBoost requires numerous model-tuning procedures to match the predictive performance of the logistic regression model and greater effort as regards interpretation.

We provide a comprehensive framework for forecasting five minute load using Gaussian processes with a positive definite kernel specifically designed for load forecasts. Gaussian processes are probabilistic, enabling us to draw samples from a posterior distribution and provide rigorous uncertainty estimates to complement the point forecast, an important benefit for forecast consumers. As part of the modeling process, we discuss various methods for dimension reduction and explore their use in effectively incorporating weather data to the load forecast. We provide guidance for every step of the modeling process, from model construction through optimization and model combination. We provide results on data from the PJMISO for various periods in 2018. The process is transparent, mathematically motivated, and reproducible. The resulting model provides a probability density of five-minute forecasts for 24 hours.

This paper studies the impact of agricultural subsidies and product certification on the use rate of green pesticides based on experimental economics. We found that agricultural subsidies effectively increased the utilization rate of green pesticides. If the agricultural subsidies raised from 20% to 100%, the green pesticides’ using rate increased by 438.51%. We also found that product certification increased the utilization rate of green pesticides by 376.16%%.The increase of agricultural subsidies is more effective than the product certification. Under a higher proportion of agricultural subsidies, farmers’ behavior will maintain “status bias”. Therefore, there are three suggestions proposed. Firstly, because of high price of green pesticides and lower production, the subsidies for agricultural materials should raise greatly to effectively improve the utilization rate of green pesticides. It is recommended that green pesticide provided free of charge in some wealthy areas. Secondly, both subsidies and product certification can improve the use rate of green pesticides. However, since the effect of agricultural subsidies is better than product certification, and farmers may have status bias. Therefore, it is recommended to give priority to the substantial increase on the proportion of agricultural subsidies, and then to product certification.

Having sustained, over the course of more than two decades, record-breaking natural catastrophe losses, American insurers and reinsurers are justifiably questioning the potential linkage between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather. Here, we explore issues pertaining to this linkage, looking at both the likely short-term implications for the insurance industry, as well as potential longer-term impacts on financial performance and corporate resilience. We begin our discussion with an overview of the implications that climate change is likely to have on the industry, especially as it relates to how catastrophic risks are construed, assessed, and managed. We then present the rudiments of an econometric analysis that explores the financial resilience of the property/casualty (P/C) industry in the face of both natural and man-made catastrophes. In this analysis, we explore the profitability consequences of several illustrative scenarios involving large-scale losses from extreme weather—specifically, a sequence of storms like those striking the U.S. in 2004—and a scenario that explores the prospect of a Katrina-scale storm in combination with a mass terror attack on the scale of 9/11. At systemic levels of aggregation, our analysis suggests a high degree of macro-resilience for the insurance industry. Moreover, we find that insurer resilience is higher for larger impacts, considering both the speed of recovery, as well as the inverse of the area under the unaffected system profile. We conclude with a summary of our findings and a closing commentary that explores the potential implications of these results for P/C insurers moving forward.

Soybean yields are often indicated as an interesting case of climate change mitigation due to the beneficial effects of CO₂ fertilization. In this paper we econometrically study this effect using a time series model of yields in a multivariate framework for a main producer and exporter of this commodity, Argentina. We have to deal with the upward behavior of soybean yields trying to identify which variables are the long-run determinants responsible of its observed trend. With this aim we adopt a partial system approach to estimate subsets of long-run relationships due to climate, technological and economic factors. Using an automatic selection algorithm we evaluate encompassing of the different obtained equilibrium correction models. We found that only technological innovations due to new crop practices and the use of modified seeds explain soybean yield in the long run. Regarding short run determinants we found positive effects associated with the use of standard fertilizers and also from changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration which would suggest a mitigation effect from global warming. However, we also found negative climate effects from periods of droughts associated with La Niña episodes, high temperatures and extreme rainfall events during the growing season of the plant.

This paper based on systems - theoretic approach to the definition of a country's GDP as not directly observable characteristic of system state. Leontief dynamic model is generalized to take into account the stimulating effect of consumption on GDP growth. In consumption, apart from final consumption, terms are considered: balance of foreign trade, fictitious investments and hidden costs. The Kalman filter uses Rosstat's gross output (for system output) and final consumption (for system control) data from 1995 to 2015. It is concluded that if in the years 2014, 2015 it was possible to increase consumption by 5% by, say, price cuts or some increase in money supply, then GDP would be greater by about 2.5%. GDP real values in recent years are most likely greater than official values. Fictitious investments and hidden costs are found in the amount of up to third the value of final consumption. The accuracy of one-year forecasts of true GDP by the methodology of this article is approximately 1.5%.