The ultimate goal of this paper was to examine the degree of elasticity between two variables, namely, agricultural credit and agricultural growth, in Angola in the period 2003–2022. Time series data were fitted into the ARDL test using various econometric techniques such as the ADF stationarity test, Granger causality and the ordinary least squares method as well as a vector error correction model (VECM) to analyze the relationship between agricultural credit and agricultural economic growth, showing a causal relationship. Both the impacts through elasticities and the optimal point existing in this relationship were estimated. It was concluded that the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural GDP was 14.41%. Granger causality shows signs of a positive linkage between agricultural credit and agricultural GDP. However, there is a causal relationship between agricultural credit and agricultural GDP, in a unidirectional aspect. This result is consistent with most of the earlier studies reviewed in the literature, confirming that credit-oriented monetary policies can boost economic growth and, consequently, development in Angola. It is important for agricultural credit systems to be designed in a way that ensures equitable access, fair interest rates, and appropriate risk management mechanisms. Additionally, monitoring and evaluation mechanisms should be in place to assess the environmental and social impacts of credit programs on agricultural sustainability. It is worth noting that this is a first-of-a-kind study on the matter of the Angolan credit experience, specifically for the agricultural sector. Angola is still searching for a sustainable credit model that could be used as a catalyzer to boost growth and contribute to economic development.

In recent years, the high-frequency abnormal price fluctuations of small-scale agricultural products have been detrimental to market stability. The traditional method based on statistical data of production factors can no longer accurately predict abnormal price fluctuations. Taking scallions as a case, the paper identifies price influencing factors from massive network information, and analyzes the causes and changing characteristics of price fluctuations from four perspectives: market supply, economic environment and market sentiment, and attention. Initially, the study employs an LDA topic model to extract factors from online sentiment data over the past four years, including market supply and demand, economic conditions, related agricultural prices, and market attention. Subsequently, using the SO-PMI algorithm to expand domain-specific lexicons and employing semantic and sentiment analysis with syntactic parsing, the study aims to improve the accuracy of sentiment quantification in text analysis. Furthermore, cointegration and Granger causality tests validate the significant impact of these factors on scallion price fluctuations, mitigating spurious regression issues. Finally, by employing a TVP-VAR model, the study compares the impulse responses and shock magnitudes of various factors in different time and spatial dimensions. It also delves into the mechanisms of heterogeneous impacts and trends in scallion prices, considering the corresponding socio-economic context and public sentiment events within specific time windows, thereby providing valuable decision-making insights for the healthy development of agricultural markets.

This study presents a novel approach for predicting hierarchical short time series. In this article, our objective was to formulate long-term forecasts for household natural gas consumption by considering the hierarchical structure of territorial units within a country's administrative divisions. For this purpose, we utilized natural gas consumption data from Poland. The length of the time series was an important determinant of the data set. We contrast global techniques, which employ a uniform method across all time series, with local methods that fit a distinct method for each time series. Furthermore, we compare the conventional statistical approach with a machine learning (ML) approach. Based on our analyses, we devised forecasting methods for short time series that exhibit exceptional performance. We have demonstrated that global models provide better forecasts than local models. Among ML models, neural networks yielded the best results, with the MLP network achieving comparable performance to the LSTM network while requiring significantly less computational time.

The paper proposes an approach to determine the optimal number of medical specialists in the region. According to the author's theoretical model, in order to maximize public welfare, the marginal contribution of the last physician recruited to the growth of the public utility function should be equal to the marginal cost of attracting him and providing conditions for his work. To empirically assess the contribution of physicians to the number of lives saved, the CVD mortality rate is modeled using the instrumental variable method. On average, a 1% increase in the number of cardiologists is associated with a 0.6% decrease in cardiovascular mortality. At the level of provision with cardiologists in the amount of 1 per 100 thousand people, their marginal contribution to the number of lives saved is not less than 129 per 100 thousand people, with a further decrease by 5 people with the increase in the level of provision by 1 unit. The use of the obtained results will increase the validity of managerial decisions and in determining the optimal level of doctors when choosing between alternative possibilities of spending money on hiring doctors of different profiles or other expenses, especially in the case of limited resources.

This paper introduces the spatial component in cross-section econometric estimations and specifically, the spatial dependence effect inherent in some of the variables involved in the modelling process. First, the spatial structure of the data from thematic maps is observed and Moran's spatial autocorrelation indicators are presented. Subsequently, the spatial weights matrix is built under different specifications. Finally, several modelling specification strategies are shown and the interpretation of the estimated coefficients. The theoretical concepts are illustrated with examples and their corresponding R software codes. This code and databases are available in a freely accessible repository in the BE2SHARE-EUDAT platform so that they can be easily reproduced.

. This paper features an analysis of the relative effectiveness of a variety of methods of modelling Realised Volatility (RV), namely: the use of Gegenbaur processes in Auto-Regressive Moving Average format, GARMA, as opposed to Heterogenous Auto-Regressive HAR models and simple rules of thumb. The analysis is applied to two data sets that feature the RV of the S&P500 index, as sampled at 5 minute intervals, provided by the Oxford Man RV database. The GARMA model does perform slightly better than the HAR model, but both models are matched by a simple rule of thumb regression model based on the application of lags of squared, cubed and quartic, demeaned daily returns.

Individual investors often struggle to predict stock prices due to the limitations imposed by the computational capacities of personal laptop Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) when running intensive deep learning models. This study proposes solving these GPU constraints by integrating deep learning models with technical analysis methods. This integration significantly reduces analysis time and equips individual investors with the ability to identify stocks that may yield potential gains or losses in an efficient manner. Thus, a comprehensive buy and sell algorithm, compatible with average laptop GPU performance, is introduced in the study. This algorithm offers a lightweight analysis method that emphasizes factors identified by technical analysis methods, thereby providing a more accessible and efficient approach for individual investors. To evaluate the efficacy of this approach, we analyzed the performance of eight deep learning models: LSTM (4 layers), CNN, BiLSTM (4 layers), CNN Attention, BiGRU CNN BiLSTM Attention, BiLSTM Attention CNN, CNN BiLSTM Attention, and CNN Attention BiLSTM. These models were used to predict stock prices for Samsung Electronics and Celltrion Healthcare. The CNN Attention BiLSTM model displayed superior performance among these models, with the lowest validation mean absolute error value. In addition, an experiment was conducted using WandB Sweep to determine the optimal hyperparameters for four individual hybrid models. These optimal parameters were then implemented in each model to validate their back-testing rate of return. The CNN Attention BiLSTM hybrid model emerged as the highest-performing model, achieving an approximate rate of return of 5 percent. Overall, this study offers valuable insights into the performance of various deep learning and hybrid models in predicting stock prices. These findings can assist individual investors in selecting appropriate models that align with their investment strategies, thereby increasing their likelihood of success in the stock market.

This study examined if people who reside in different regions of South Korea exhibit different WTP for the mitigation of PM2.5 emissions from coal power plants by restricting the operation of such plants during the winter and spring when air pollution becomes severe. A contingent valuation method combined with a double bounded dichotomous choice was used to derive people’s WTP for the mitigation of PM2.5 emissions. Sample group was divided into central, western, eastern, and southern regions. It is known that the eastern region is affected by northwesterly winds in the winter and spring seasons, so air pollutants in the eastern areas fly to the eastern sea. According to the estimation results, respondents who live in eastern regions showed significantly lower WTP than the average WTP. We suggest that the mitigation policy on PM2.5 emissions should consider regional differences in the contributions of coal power plants to PM2.5 emissions.

Innovation and technology are important tools of minerals sector efficiency and productivity im-provement. The uptake of technologies has proven important levelrs to improve the productivity of mining sector. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of mine-level productivity by using a global data of copper, gold, and platinum from 1991-2020. Various drivers of proioductivity have been analysed to draw policy insights. Empirical findings reveal significant disparities in technical efficiency and productivity across mines and regions. A further decomposition of TFP into its different components suggest that the adoption of innovative practices and investment in technology adoption could improve the overall productivity of these commodities. The findings also suggest that an appropriate input mix and optimal scale of production could boost platinum mining productivity. Regional disparities in productivity in different commodities (e.g., South Africa vs. Zimbabwe) give policymakers with insights into how to support production scale and productivity through appropriate input mixtures.

Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, apparently the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models - in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy - is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality rate. In this article, we examine whether the same forecast outcomes are obtained when the performance of mortality models is assessed based on the original and log scales of the mortality rate. We compare four different stochastic mortality models: the original Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter model with (log-)normal distribution, the Lee-Carter model with Poisson distribution and the median Lee-Carter model. We show that the preferred model will depend on the scale of the objective variable, the selection criteria measure and the range of ages analysed.

The development of information and communication technology has brought major changes in the field of management accounting. Organizations that previously tended to rely on traditional manual accounting tools, with advances in technology organizations are now able to take advantage of a variety of Innovative Management Accounting Tools (IMATs). Use of IMATs provides organizations with faster and more accurate access to information needed for strategic decision making. This study aims to examine the extent to which the use of IMATs can affect organizational performance and sustainability. In this study, data were analyzed from a number of organizations that have adopted IMATs and conducted empirical research to examine the relationship between the use of IMATs and organizational performance and sustainability. The method used is to use a quantitative method with a survey among senior accountants of the Supreme Audit Agency of the Republic of Indonesia (BPK RI). In this study, the number of samples used was 294 BPK senior accountants. The data in this study were analyzed using SmartPLS software. Using IMATs has a favorable impact on organizational performance and sustainability, according to the study's findings. The perceived ease of use of IMATs, on the other hand, has no impact on how often people use these devices. IMATs usage is, however, positively impacted by beliefs of the advantages of utilizing them (their perceived utility). IMATs usage also has a favorable impact on the effectiveness and sustainability of organizations. IMATs use was examined in this study, however it was found that there was no association between perceived ease of use and organizational success or sustainability. On the other hand, it plays a crucial role in mediating the link between perceived usefulness and organizational success and sustainability.

Cryptocurrencies have obtained a crucial position in the international financial landscape. The cryptocurrency market has been perceived as a highly volatile market since the inception of Bitcoin. This study investigates the relevant performance of extreme value models (EVM) in estimating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of Bitcoin and Ethereum returns. The extreme value mixture models, GPD-Normal-GPD (GNG) and GPD-KDE-GPD models are fitted to the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum and the Kupiec likelihood backtesting procedure is performed on the VaR estimates to assess the fits. Both models’ results showed that the fits were a much more decent representation of the observed data when compared to the Normal distribution. The backtesting results showed that the GPD-KDE-GPD model’s fit was superior to that of the GPD-Normal-GPD for both sets of returns at all VaR risk levels except at the 99% level. The results of this study may assist with understanding the dynamics and risks associated with cryptocurrencies and can serve as a beneficial tool for decision-making and risk management to investors, traders, financial institutions and many other participants in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

This study investigates the influence of expectations and trust on farmers' decisions regarding contractual choices in land transfer. The dataset used for analysis consists of 1101 households in Guizhou Province. The research focuses on two aspects: the selection between written and oral contracts, and the decision to continue the contractual relationship. The findings reveal that farmers' choices are significantly affected by their expectations and levels of trust.Specifically, when farmers' expectations regarding the land transfer process are not met, they tend to prefer written contracts over oral ones. This preference can be attributed to the greater clarity and risk reduction offered by written contracts. On the other hand, higher levels of trust increase the likelihood of farmers continuing the land transfer contract, as trust fosters a sense of confidence and security in the ongoing relationship.Interestingly, trust also plays a moderating role. Farmers who have aligned expectations and high levels of trust are more inclined to opt for oral contracts. This preference for oral contracts can be attributed to their flexibility and emphasis on interpersonal relationships, allowing for better adaptation to the changing dynamics of land transfer.These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the factors influencing farmers' decision-making processes regarding contractual choices in land transfer. They provide valuable insights for policymakers involved in land transfer, enabling them to optimize policies and facilitate farmers' decision-making processes.

The Metropolitan Economic Freedom Index (MEFI) ranks cities based on their support of free market enterprise. In its current state, MEFI purports to measure three constructs (government spending, taxation, and labor market freedom) with three equally weighted variables for each one, assuming perfect substitutability of variables. This study investigates the statistical consistency of MEFI through Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Multiple models investigate current variable selection by providing a potentially better indicator of labor market freedom, aggregation assumptions by removing the requirements for fixed and equal weights, and statistical consistency by evaluating the fit between the data and models. Results indicate that the current MEFI model is not statistically consistent with the data, that weighting of variables should not be equal, that variable selection should be investigated, and that constructs should be re-imagined. The models investigated provide an initial starting point for redefining MEFI.

This study investigates the relationship between clean and dirty energy markets, specifically focusing on clean energy stock indexes and their potential as hedging assets and safe havens during periods of global economic uncertainty. The research analyzes five clean energy indexes and five dirty energy indexes from May 2018 to May 2023, considering events like the global pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The main objective is to examine the causal relationship among different stock indexes pertaining to dirty and clean energy by using the Granger causality test (VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test) to determine whether clean energy indexes can predict future prices of dirty energy indexes. However, the findings reveal that clean and dirty energy indexes do not exhibit hedging characteristics or serve as safe havens during times of economic uncertainty, rejecting the research question. These results have important implications for investment strategies, as assets lacking safe haven characteristics may not preserve portfolio efficiency in uncertain times. The study's insights provide valuable guidance for investors, poli-cymakers, and participants in energy financial markets. It highlights the need to adapt investment approaches and seek alternative options to navigate uncertain economic conditions effectively.

As a manifestation of technological innovation achievements, patents reflect the frontier of technological development in the field. This paper constructs a multi-entity patent collaboration network and analyzes its evolution patterns to provide a reference for innovation organizations to grasp the general direction of innovation development and select partners. Based on the data of collaboration patents of two and three organizations in China's new energy vehicles (NEV) industry from 2008 to 2021, this paper constructs higher-order interaction collaboration innovation networks in different periods to analyze the spatial evolution of networks and patent cooperation activities. The results show that the generalized degree distribution of nodes and edges conforms to the power-law distribution. The two-dimensional simplex networks gradually form triangle groups centered on the core nodes, and the importance of key edges is beginning to emerge. Key organizations and partners, including State Grid Corporation of China, Tsinghua University, and China Electric Power Research Institute, will largely determine the direction for the future development of cooperation innovation. The study also reveals that Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, and Shanghai are in central positions in the cooperative innovation network, based on their cooperation breadth and depth measures. Additionally, key links formed by Beijing as hubs are not only the center of information exchange but also function as bridges that connect to other regions.

China’s Grassland Eco-Subsidy Program has been implemented since 2011 to protect and sustain grassland resources and improve the economic situation of herders. In this case study, we evaluated the policy from the perspective of pastoral differentiations and their willingness to accept (WTA) the eco-subsidy. Using the contingent valuation method (CVM), we interviewed 410 herder households in the grass-livestock balance sub-policy zones across Inner Mongolia, and examined how their horizontal and vertical differentiation affected their WTA and compensation expectations in a sorted Logistic model and a Tobit model, respectively. Our findings suggest that horizontal differentiation of herders (variations of income sources and employments) promoted the WTA for eco-subsidy and inhibited the increase of compensation expectations. A large vertical differentiation extent (income disparity) lowered the WTA but raised expectations for payment levels. Besides, factors such as operating pasture area, precipitation, and supervision intensity had significant impacts. Grazing income remained the primary income source for most herder households, reflecting the characteristics of "the rational economic man." Our results suggest a need for policy improvements to guide herders towards becoming "rational ecological men.” By considering this differentiation, policymakers can better tailor the program to meet the needs and expectations of diverse herder households.

The complex adaptive systems (CAS) research study investigates into the theoretical link of a sustained economic growth as a critical pathway to lift people out of poverty and improve their quality of life. The results show a left-skewed global behavior of an economy-driven human development of 189 countries with 20% or 27 countries obtaining low human development; 80% or 162 countries obtaining medium to very high human development of which 21.16% or 39 countries with medium HDI, 53 or 28.04% or 53 countries with high HDI, and 31.22% or 59 countries with very high HDI. Using the Log (GDP) for visual transformation, closer investigation into the scatterplot diagram reveals that there are also bimodal patterns where countries in the high amplitude and low amplitude groups obtained different human development outcomes despite less or more on economic growth variances mirror on the government policy priorities resulting in four differentiating conditions. Very few countries experience virtuous cycles where both growth and human development are successful; few countries with vicious cycles where both are weak; and many countries with lopsided conditions where the economy is strong but human development is weak, or conversely ones where human development is strong but the economy is weak. The global pattern of economy and human development illustrated by an upward sinusoid or sine wave refutes the conventional linear approach. Uniquely and most importantly, the sinusoidal wave illustrates a decreasing amplitude and decreasing periods as countries manifest apparently complex behaviors that emerge as a result of often nonlinear spatio-temporal interactions among a large number of component systems at different levels of organizations and governments leading to an emergence of a behavior characterizing of a complex adaptive system.

This study investigates the impact of governance variables on the earnings quality based on the industry the firm is in. it has been identified that earnings management have been practised differently by different industries. Most of the research under earnings management have focussed on holistic impacts of corporate governance variables on discretionary accruals while this study has categorised the firms based on what industry they fall on while identifying the impacts of the variables of corporate governance on discretionary accruals. Initially, this paper has studied the estimation of the value of discretionary accruals and identified that performance matched discretionary accruals as the best model as per the explanatory power of the model is higher than other models. Hence, the estimation of the earnings management has been calculated based on performance matched discretionary accruals in this research. This research has studied the impacts of the governance attributes on the earnings management categorising the firms based on the industry they are in; hence, the value of earnings management has been categorically separated; hereafter, the impact of the corporate governance factors on the value of categorically separated earnings management have been statistically analysed. This study has considered the descriptive study to compare the means, medians and standard deviations of the earnings management of various industries. Moreover, Pearson correlations and Spearman rank correlation have been used as a research tool to examine the correlation coefficients.

Many problems in the fields of finance and actuarial science can be transformed into the problem of solving backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) and partial differential equations (PDE) with jumps, which are often difficult to solve in high-dimensional cases. To solve this problem, this paper applies the deep learning algorithm to solve a class of high-dimensional nonlinear partial differential equations with jump terms and their corresponding backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) with jump terms. Using the nonlinear Feynman-Kac formula, the problem of solving this kind of PDE is transformed into the problem of solving the corresponding backward stochastic differential equations with jump terms, and the numerical solution problem is turned into a stochastic control problem. At the same time, the gradient and jump process of the unknown solution are separately regarded as the strategy function and they are approximated respectively by using two multilayer neural networks as function approximators. Thus, deep learning-based method is used to overcome the “curse of dimensionality” caused by high-dimensional PDE with jump, and the numerical solution is obtained. In addition, this paper proposes a new optimization algorithm based on the existing neural network random optimization algorithm, and compares the results with the traditional optimization algorithm, and achieves good results. Finally, the proposed method is applied to three practical high-dimensional problems: Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, bond pricing under the jump Vasicek model and high-dimensional option pricing model with default risk. The proposed numerical method has obtained satisfactory accuracy and efficiency. The method has important application value and practical significance in investment decision-making, option pricing, insurance and other fields.

This study investigated whether export performance is correlated with innovation. We explicitly considered five types of innovation: a) process innovation; b) product innovation; c) process and product innovation; d) product innovation new to the firm; and e) product innovation new to the market. We en-larged the findings of R&D-export and R&D-investment relations using a vast sample of cross-European firms. We considered innovation as endogenous and determined by R&D through a process characterized by the role of the regional technological environment. Our analysis enabled us to propose an integrated model incorporating R&D, innovation and export, in a framework of simultaneous equations which consider their mutual correlations. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first in recent years to empirically compute the relation between R&D and tangible investment at the micro level. Econometric results showed that product and process innovation are positively linked to the export intensity of European manufacturing firms. The results also showed complementarity effects between the two kinds of innovation. The av-erage effect on export intensity from carrying out process innovation is larger than that found for product innovation, except in cases where the product is new to the market. When both types of innovation have been carried out, a larger effect results than that found for product or process innovation alone. Furthermore, the average marginal effect on export intensity from innovations of any kind among those studied here is highly positive and significant.

This research article focused on discovering appropriate liquidity risk concerns in the financial Sector. Primarily, it deals with the appropriate liquidity factors that affect financial performance services pertained to several liquidity crises and the respective liquidity measures. Liquidity is considered the primary constraint. The Liquidity Ratios are the defective condition of calculating the financial performance services and their respective status. For fulfilling this performance service status prediction, this research use calculation for consistency index procedure. Liquidity index-based predictions have collaborated concerning the price movement in the stock market. The Liquidity will affect the trading and market transparency whenever the price moment varies. To control this trading and not market transparency of liquidity index be employed the greedy approach for estimating the most factor affected by the liquid index. Hence, this research elaborates on the greedy approach today with 25 essential financial factors. Each Panther will have combined with the tractor-confirmed liquidity crisis whenever the factors of liquidity crisis are combined with the actual financial factor, the minimum and maximum Degree of matching are calculated. This calculation determines the factors that affected the Liquidity concerning their exact, Plugin, subsume, and fail condition. Eventually, the search concludes the determination of factors affecting Liquidity concerning the actual finance factor and liquidity crisis. Finally, the result was concluded with the Degree of matching and their efficiency of finding liquidity factors with a successful reasonable result. Based on the Degree of matching result, this research found the actual reason for Liquidity with the help of various financial factors

Climate change has become a major concern for developing countries given the risk that it posses on energy and food independence, and on general productivity. Despite having an energy system with low carbon intensity when compared to other Latin American countries, Colombia is already facing climate change impacts and requires urgent efforts to mitigate them. As a developing country, the challenge is bigger as policies for economic growth should be in line with the global commitment of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. With the aim of contributing to the design of climate policies, this study assesses the impact of economic development on the environment by examining the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Colombia. Statistically validated and stable autoregressive distributed lag models are estimated for three different environmental indicators: carbon dioxide emissions, methane emissions, and ecological footprint. Moreover, the effects of other variables such as urbanization, foreign direct investment, value added of agricultural and industrial sectors, and energy use are analyzed with dynamic simulations. Empirical evidence supports a long-run equilibrium relationship among investigated variables and the existence of an inverted U-shaped EKC relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and methane emissions, and GDP and ecological footprint. Shifting to renewable energy sources and leveraging the use of cleaner technologies in agricultural and industrial sectors are found to be key for economic growth without harming the environment.

The bilateral trade relationship between PRC and ASEAN is close. As early as 2012, China has been the largest trading partner of ASEAN, and ASEAN has also taken the place of the United States as PRC’s second largest trading partner in 2019.This paper uses the theory of ecological population evolution, selects the total import and export volume of PRC and the ten ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2019 as the data sample, studies the bilateral trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, analyzes the competition and symbiotic relationship of bilateral trade between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries and the possibility of trade friction according to the results, and proposes corresponding improvement strategies. According to the results of the population evolution competition model, China has a competitive relationship with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, which is most likely to cause trade friction. China has a biased relationship with Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, which is more likely to cause trade friction. On this basis, in order to further strengthen the trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on improving infrastructure, strengthening independent innovation, seeking cooperation fields and actively investing abroad.

COVID-19 is a well-known respiratory disease spreading worldwide since January 2020, causing many deaths and massive pressure on health systems. This pandemic’s appearance compromised the health services’ sustainability and quality as many procedures were postponed or even canceled out, with an expected increase of adverse events like nosocomial infections, in-hospital deaths, and the worsening of the patients’ clinical status. Therefore, assessing whether the healthcare providers’ performance has changed is paramount. In this case, we evaluated the public hospitals in Portugal as the leading secondary health care providers in the country, which in turn has been highly affected by the pandemic. To this end, we developed a network Data Envelopment Analysis model serially relating efficiency and effectiveness. Using 2,795 observations from public hospitals and 18 variables, we observed consistent drops in efficiency when the pandemic started, followed by a recovery to levels above the pre-pandemic ones. Regarding effectiveness, we observed a positive trend during the evaluated period. In short, these results allow us to conclude that, apart from the great resilience of public healthcare providers, the Portuguese State was not prepared for a pandemic like COVID-19, but still the actions taken (including massive vaccination) were beneficial.

The energy matrix worldwide has been going through difficulties in its discussions - such as irregular exploration, inefficient public policies, and arbitrariness concerning diplomatic and political definitions of those involved in this market. This work's general objective consists in analyzing associations and statistical inferences of the largest world oil producers, assimilating the contributions and singularities of this market from 1993 to 2020. Based on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it was possible to identify the possible inferences and contributions of the ten largest oil producers in the world in more than two decades using statistical analysis through correlation, regression, and statistical analysis of variables. According to the research and the literature on the area, the oil market proposes support to its discussions, mainly in its productive approaches. It is possible to identify this market as a solid link to geopolitical actions, distributing the possibilities through economic bias and socio-cultural and historical factors on a global level.

Bicycling is a tremendously efficient means of transportation both in socio-economic and environmental sustainability parameters. Therefore, they are fast becoming the primary mode of transportation in some other parts of Africa. Quelimane is a city which is found in Mozambique where bicycle-taxi is a major means of transportation. However, very little is known about the social and economic profiles of these city bicycle-taxi riders. Hence, the aim of this study was to determine the socio demographic and economic profile of bicycle-taxi riders. A cross-sectional study survey using a simple random probabilistic sample (n = 357, α = 0.05) was conducted. The questionnaire consisted of 20 items in five major groups, sociodemographic, economics, riding factors, safety and motivational factors. Pearson Chi square, t test and linear regression tests were carried out to test for statistical analysis. The activity is carried out mostly by males (98.9 %), under the age of 35 years. Their academic records, ranking highest, with secondary education background, bicycles are obtained through rental programs in order to perform taxing. After expenses, daily earnings generate a total revenue of USD 5.75. Sex, marital status, house type, years riding, bicycle make and meal per day, are associated with daily revenue income. Bicycle-taxi activity in Quelimane is an income generating activity. Mainly young citizens are involved due to the high unemployment rate. Nonetheless, bicycle taxing created an untapped market for self-employment, where the majority of youths in Quelimane generate their own revenue, thereby improving their livelihood.

Based on data from the Yunnan Province farm household survey, we examine the effect of rural land rights policy on farmers’ income. The regression results show that right significantly raises the total income of farmers, with farm income serving as the primary source of total income. After performing numerous robustness tests, using instrumental variables to handle endogeneity and arriving at the same conclusion, the result is still valid. According to the heterogeneity analysis, in the sample of households with long-term migrant workers, the confirmation of rural land rights significantly increases total and nonfarm income while decreasing farm income. Furthermore, total income includes nonfarm income, which reflects the effect of different farmers' optimal labor allocation based on the external market environment. According to the impact mechanism anal-ysis, right can increase farmers' total income by promoting land transfer, and farmers in less developed areas are more willing to increase their income by land transfer out.

Food waste is one of the greatest challenge to sustainability in developed and developing countries. In the former, food waste is concentrated in the final part of the chain. Too Good To Go is a digital platform aimed to prevent food waste, where consumers can buy magic boxes from different outlets containing food products that are approaching their end-of-life. However, the mechanism of the platform enable the outlets to publish their offering much in advance of the pick-up time, raising the question whether the food sold on the platform is effectively a leftover or a planned production. Our empirical study gathers data from over 1200 outlets in Rome on the Too Good To Go platform.

Using the 2011-2020 digital inclusive finance data released by Peking University and the index system constructed by the Blue Book of China Rural Revitalization and Development Index (2018), this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of the digital inclusive finance and the rural revitaliza-tion from time and space dimensions with the help of kernel density estimation, Markov chain and Moran index. Using The Gini coefficient decomposition method to analyze the source of differ-ences in digital inclusive finance, and then using the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and ge-ographically weighted regression (GWR) model to study the boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization from the perspective of spatial aggregation and spatial differentia-tion, respectively. The results show that: (1) The growth rate of China's digital inclusive finance slows down year by year, and the inter-provincial differences increase year by year and show gradient characteristics, indicating that there may be a trend of multipolar differentiation. The overall level of Rural Revitalization shows an increasing trend, and the gap between provinces is still apparent. (2) The evolution of digital inclusive finance and rural revitalization is a slow ad-justment process, and there has been no cross-level jump in the past ten years. In digital inclusive finance, the liquidity from the highest and lowest levels to the medium level is high. However, the liquidity in the states of rural revitalization development level is not high. (3) Rural revitalization has a positive spatial spillover effect. The level of rural revitalization in the western area is signif-icantly lower than in the eastern area. At the same time, there is no significant difference between the east and central areas. The depth of the use of digital inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on the revitalization and development of rural areas, indicating that the further promotion of digital inclusive finance business in rural areas can substantially boost the revitalization of rural areas. (4) The boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization shows prominent spatial differentiation characteristics. The depth of use and the degree of digitization generally show a positive impact. The central and eastern coastal cities have the highest impact, decreasing toward the southwest and northeast. The areas with the lowest usage depth impact are clustered in the northeast, and the areas with the lowest digitization impact are clustered in the southwest.

COVID-19, a global health crisis, occurred unexpectedly and has led to global transformation over all countries in the world today. While COVID-19 had claimed lives and led to an economic crisis, the impacts on the financial market cannot be overemphasized. Considering the previous financial crisis, which occurred due to poor regulations and unchecked misconduct by financial market stakeholders, COVID-19 is the first to mention an indirect crisis that almost has no direct relationship to the financial system. Thus, this paper explores the impacts of COVID-19 from a stochastic approach on Local markets by applying the GARCH model to measure the level of volatility of two (2) US stock indexes (NASDAQ and NYSE) and a Europe index (EURONEXT). Our results show that volatility existed before COVID-19, but the volatility rate increased after COVID-19, possibly due to the COVID-19 shock. We also explore the Markov-Switching Dynamic Regression (MSDR) model to corroborate our findings. We validated that there is a very high persistent volatility for all the considered local markets at the early stage COVID-19 period.

Demographic change is leading to the aging of German society. As long as the baby boom co-horts are still of working age, the working population will also age - and decline as soon as this baby boom generation gradually reaches retirement age. At the same time, there has been a trend towards increasing absenteeism (times of inability to work) in companies since the zero years, with the number of days of absence increasing with age. We present a novel stochastic forecast approach that combines population forecasting with forecasts of labor force participation trends, considering epidemiological aspects. For this, we combine a stochastic Monte Carlo-based cohort-component forecast of the population with projections of labor force participation rates and morbidity rates. This article examines the purely demographic effect on the economic costs associated with such absenteeism due to the inability to work. Under expected future employment patterns and constant morbidity patterns, absenteeism is expected by close to 5 percent by 2050 relative to 2020, associated with increasing economic costs of almost 3 percent. Our results illustrate how strongly the pronounced baby boom/ baby bust phenomenon determines demographic development in Germany in the midterm.

A vivid debate is ongoing in the scientific community about statistical malpractice and the related publication bias. No general consensus exists on the consequences and this is reflected in heterogeneous rules defined by scientific journals on the use and reporting of statistical inference. This paper aims at discussing how the debate is perceived by the agricultural economics community and implications for our roles as researchers, contributors to the scientific publication process, and teachers. We start by summarizing the current state of the p-value debate and the replication crisis, and commonly applied statistical practices in our community. This is followed by motivation, design, results and discussion of a survey on statistical knowledge and practice among the researchers in the agricultural economics community in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. We conclude that beyond short-term measures like changing rules of reporting in publications, a cultural change regarding empirical scientific practices is needed that stretches across all our roles in the scientific process. Acceptance of scientific work should largely be based on the theoretical and methodological rigor and where the perceived relevance arises from the questions asked, the methodology employed, and the data used but not from the results generated. Revised and clear journal guidelines, the creation of resources for teaching and research, and public recognition of good practice are suggested measures to move forward.

This paper examines certain implications from the literature on Tiebout’s model of local gov-ernment service provision, particularly Hamilton’s extension of the model to include local control of land use and property taxation. Our empirical analysis focuses on the use of fiscal zoning to lower property tax rates, a topic that has not been addressed in the extensive Tiebout literature. Using data for over 100 municipalities in the Miami, Florida, metropolitan area, we specify property tax rates as a function of fiscal zoning measures, other municipal characteristics, and tax mimicking. We conclude that single-family zoning is by far the most important variable ex-plaining municipal property tax rates.

This study contributes to the debate on accessibility of higher education in Chile, focusing on both socioeconomic and geospatial dimensions of access to university study. The central question we address in this paper is the following: Does geography (physical distance and neighborhood effects) play a significant role in determining accessibility of higher education in Chile? We use Heckman probit-type (Heckit) models to adjust for selection in the process of completing the trajectory towards higher education – that is, pre-selection, application to study at university, and ultimately admission (or denial) to a higher education institution. The results shows that the geospatial elements have a significant local effect on the student’s application and access to Chilean universities.

We study the efficient computation of power indices for weighted voting games with precoalitions amongst subsets of players (reflecting, e.g., ideological proximity) using the paradigm of dynamic programming. Starting from the state-of-the-art algorithms for computing the Banzhaf and Shapley-Shubik indices for weighted voting games we present a framework for fast algorithms for the three most common power indices with precoalitions, i.e. the Owen index, the Banzhaf-Owen index and the Symmetric Coalitional Banzhaf index, and point out why our new algorithms are applicable for large numbers of players. We discuss implementations of our algorithms for the three power indices with precoalitions in C++ and review computing times as well as storage requirements.

The propagation of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reshaped the relationship between income and food-away-from-home (FAFH) expenditure in Mexico during 2020. Although the number of households participating in this market fell across income deciles and regions due to the pandemic, the impact on their budget shares is not uniform. Using data from the Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH) 2020, we estimated an Engel curve of the Working-Lesser functional form for FAFH. Among the independent variables are the number of family members 65 years of age and older, and dummies to indicate whether the household experienced food insecurity or received remittances. The estimation was carried out following the Heckman two-step method, suitable for censored-response data. The results suggest that the budget share for FAFH drops as income increases. The number of older adults and food insecurity discourage the decision to participate in FAFH expenditure and increase its budget share, whereas remittances encourage participation and reduce its budget share. The corrected conditional elasticity is 0.4609; the sign and the magnitude indicate that FAFH is a necessity good.

The present study aims to examine the role the social and digital infrastructures might have during the building process of the Smart Regions in the Italian context. Within this framework, it is possible to identify some essential research questions, such as why the same regions are growing faster than the other and which type of effects could be generated from the different connectivity between the regions. Since the Smart Region concept is still composed of technical reports, pilot projects and experiences from a limited number of cities on the international stage, this work it is tried to use a new approach, applying either a neuronal model, the Self-Organizing Maps, and the multivariate regression approach, to extrapolate the existence of possible future conditions for the rising of Smart Regions in Italy, studying the evolution of the used database during the period 2005 – 2016. From the analysis what emerged is that the only bridging social capital dimension, empirically speaking, feed the regional innovation growth because the structure of social relationship facilitates interactions across social, political and economic agents; but there are institutional deficits, most pronounced in Italy and other European countries.

This study is the first to examine whether the performance of credit rating, one of the most important data-based decision-making of banks, can be improved by using banking system log data that is extensively accumulated inside the bank for system operation. This study uses the log data recorded for the mobile app system of Kakaobank, a leading internet bank used by more than 14 million people in Korea. After generating candidate variables from Kakaobank's vast log data, we develop a credit scoring model by utilizing variables with high information values. Consequently, the discrimination power of the new model compared to the credit bureau grades was significantly improved by 1.84% points based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics. Therefore, the results of this study imply that if a bank utilizes its log data that have already been extensively accumulated inside the bank, decision-making systems, including credit scoring, can be efficiently improved at a low cost.

The analysis and measurement of poverty is a crucial issue in the field of social science. Poverty is a multidimensional notion that can be measured using composite indicators relevant to synthesizing statistical indicators. Subjective choices could, however, affect these indicators. We propose interval-based composite indicators to avoid the problem, enabling us in this context to obtain robust and reliable measures. Based on a relevant conceptual model of poverty we have identified, we will consider all the various factors identified. Then, considering a different random configuration of the various factors, we will compute a different composite indicator. We can obtain a different interval for each region based on the distinct factor choices on the different assumptions for constructing the composite indicator. So we will create an interval-based composite indicator based on the results obtained by the Monte-Carlo simulation of all the different assumptions. The different intervals can be compared, and various rankings for poverty can be obtained. For their parameters, such as center, minimum, maximum, and range, the poverty interval composite indicator can be considered and compared. The results demonstrate a relevant and consistent measurement of the indicator and the shadow sector's relevant impact on the final measures.

The Capital Asset Pricing Model is a widely applied model to describe risky markets and to deduce their systematic risk. Its estimation, therefore, remains an important task in Econo-financial studies. Empirically, it focuses on the impact of return interval on the betas. Existing studies somehow turn around the same idea of measuring the value of the beta according to the uniform intervals of time during a fixed period. However, it is noticed easily, and especially in the last decade that many factors such as socio-political, and Econo-environmental ones have led to a perturbation in the timeline of the worldwide development, and especially in countries and regions having political changes. This led us to introduce a new idea of risk estimation taking into account the non-uniform changes in markets by introducing a non-uniform wavelet analysis. We aim to explain the Econo-political situation of Arab spring countries and the effect of the revolutions on the market beta. The main novelty is firstly the construction of a dynamic backward-forward model for missing data, and next the application of random non-uniform wavelets. The proposed procedure will be acted empirically on a sample corresponding to TUNINDEX stock as a representative index of the Tunisian market actively traded over the period January 14, 2016, to January 13, 2021. The chosen 5-years period is important as it constitutes the first 5-years-after the revolution and depends strongly on the Socio-Econo-political stability in the revolutionary countries.

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between digital inclusive finance and rural income, and demonstrates that digital inclusive finance plays a significant role in promoting rural income, based on the 2012-2018 panel data of 17 cities in Henan Province of China. Further dimensional research unveils that all of its breadth of coverage, depth of use and degree of digitization present significant positive correlation with rural income, and a robustness test was conducted through the sub-sample method. In addition, according to regression analysis on the influencing factors of digital inclusive finance through the Tobit model, the level of economic development, the Internet popularity rate and the urbanization rate have a positive effect on the development of digital inclusive finance in Henan, while the income gap between urban and rural areas and the degree of opening up have a negative effect. Finally, predicated on the analysis of the restrictive factors of Henan’s digital inclusive finance in increasing rural income, the paper puts forward specific policy proposals based on the native state quo.

Nested structure is a structural feature that is conducive to system stability formed by the co-evolution of species in mutualistic ecosystems, and reflects the ability of ecosystem stability to be restored to a stable state again after being destroyed. The co-opetition relationship and value flow between industrial sectors in the global value chain are similar to the mutualistic ecosystem, and the pattern of the global economic system is always changing in dynamic equilibrium. Nestedness theory is used in this article to define the generalist and specialist sectors in the global value chain to analyze the changes in the global supply pattern. Then we study the mechanism of the global economic system to reach a stable equilibrium and the role of different sectors in the steady of the economic system, so as to provide countermeasures for enhancing the stability of the global economic system. At the end of the article, the domestic trade network, export trade network and import trade network of each country are extracted, and an econometric model is designed to analyze how the microstructure of the production system affects a country’s macroeconomic performance, thereby deriving the conclusion that the stability of the international trade network is crucial to a country's economic development.

. In this article, a search for a calculation method and an analysis of performance indicators of mutual investment funds is carried out. Many factors can influence the return on investments in portfolio investments, which makes the choice of the fund incredibly difficult. However, in addition to the fact that it is difficult to determine which indicators should be given more attention and which should be omitted, it is not so easy to get these data. Some of them are publicly available on the Internet, while others can only be found in trading systems that are not accessible to people outside of this area. The article proves that a well-trained neural network can easily find existing patterns between risk and expected return on investment. It is a well-trained neural network that provides the ability to use the "what-if" function to justify your choice on real factors, as well as the ability to download available data and calculate the estimated income and its changes. This makes it much easier to choose a Fund, especially for inexperienced investors. The article also presents the results of a study of the dependence of estimated income on correlation, standard deviation, and volatility using a trained neural network. According to the theory, higher values of these three factors correspond to a higher amount of income. The obtained graphs of the calculated income dependence on correlation, standard deviation, and volatility confirmed the correctness of the neural network training and compliance with the relations described in the theory. The paper presents graphs of the dependence of the estimated income on the beta and alpha coefficients. The higher the beta and alpha indicators, the higher the expected return on investment. This corresponds to the dependency accepted in the model. When the values of the beta and alpha coefficients increase, the income also increases, which is completely consistent with the theory.

Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome. To identify these factors correlated with COVID-19 outcome, country aggregate data provided by the Lancet COVID-19 Commission subjected to correlation analysis. Socioeconomic and health-related variables were used to predict mortality in the top 5 most affected countries using ridge regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. Our data reveal that predictors related to demographics and social disadvantage correlate with COVID-19 mortality per million and that XGBoost performed better than ridge regression. Taken together, our findings suggest that the health consequence of the current pandemic is not just confined to indiscriminate impact of a viral infection but that these preventable effects are amplified based on pre-existing health and socioeconomic inequalities.

Economics has long sought to bridge the principles of microeconomics into the realm of macroeconomics. This paper presents a formal attempt to do so by using a maximum entropy based approach derived from statistical mechanics coupled with subjective game theory and elements from political philosophy. This approach is then applied to income distributions and to the Cobb-Douglas production function, to create a framework for future applications, and to illustrate where past work had made implicit assumptions regarding the system. The paper then explores the consequences of the approach, illustrating self-contradictions in the political philosophy of distributive justice, formally deriving an equation of state for the transactions on the Bitcoin network, and deriving from this the ideal gas law and polytropic process for an economy proving that expansionary monetary policy is extractive – not stimulative.

Background: The methods used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) household surveys have not changed in four decades; however, LMIC societies have changed substantially and now face unprecedented rates of urbanisation and urbanisation of poverty. This mismatch may result in unintentional exclusion of vulnerable and mobile urban populations. We compare three survey method innovations with standard survey methods in Kathmandu, Dhaka, and Hanoi, and summarize feasibility of our innovative methods in terms of time, cost, skill requirements, and experiences. Methods: We used descriptive statistics and regression techniques to compare respondent characteristics in samples drawn with innovative versus standard survey designs and household definitions, adjusting for sample probability weights and clustering. Feasibility of innovative methods was evaluated using a thematic framework analysis of focus group discussions with survey field staff, and via survey planner budgets. Results: We found that a common household definition excluded single adult (46.9%) and migrant headed households (6.7%), as well as non-married (8.5%), unemployed (10.5%), disabled (9.3%), and studying adults (14.3%). Further, standard two-stage sampling resulted in fewer single adult and non-family households than an innovative area-microcensus design; however, two-stage sampling resulted in more tent and shack dwellers. Our survey innovations provided good value for money and field staff experiences were neutral or positive. Staff recommended streamlining field tools and pairing technical and survey content experts during fieldwork. Conclusions: This evidence of exclusion of vulnerable and mobile urban populations in LMIC household surveys is deeply concerning, and underscores the need to modernize survey methods and practices.

The tourism sector in general and the hotelier in particular face the challenge of managing appropriate measures to deal with the covid-19 pandemic. In this sense it is useful to know what the measures are most demanded by the clientele. This research, by analyzing the variance (ANOVA) of a factor concluded that women are more demanding than men in terms of the level of demand in relation to the measures to be taken in hotels. This, as a practical application, allows to know more accurately the expectations, demands and demands of the client segmented by sex, in order to satisfy and improve the tourist experiences.

This article attempts to identify factors impacting on the quantity of municipal waste in Polish 2478 communes (LAU-2), taking into account the variability of particular determinants influence depending on their regional diversification. The analysis covers the years 2005-2018. The dependent variable is the volume of municipal waste in kg per capita, whereas the group of determinants include: economic and human development, uncontrolled dumping sites, population density, population at the working age, migration, tourism, urbanization, dwellings and housing, retail sales, entities, education and investments in waste management; The geographically weighted regression with spatial error term (GWR-SEM) was employed in this study. The model enabled not only the specification of the waste production determinants, but also the analysis of the variability in the strength and direction of dependencies occurring between the examined variables in individual communes. The results proved that the higher the level of education the less waste is generated (in the north-central Poland); the business entities and working-age population are crucial for the waste quantity in communes of eastern Poland; the factors most considerably as to regional range affecting the waste quantity are urban and business development; as to strength–higher education and the share of working age individuals;

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods of time that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of growth across the centuries. In particular, shocks originated by pandemics in recent times seem to have permanent effect in growth. Moreover, our results show that the unemployment rate increases and it becomes more persistent after a pandemic. In this regard, our findings support the design and implementation of counter-cyclical policies to soften the shock of the pandemic.

The rapid development of China's economy has led to a rapid increase in energy production and use. Among them, the excessive consumption of coal in fossil energy consumption is the leading cause of air pollution in China. This paper incorporates renewable energy innovation, fossil energy consumption and air pollution into a unified analysis framework, and uses spatial measurement models to investigate the spatial effects of renewable energy green innovation and fossil energy consumption on air pollution in China, and decomposes the total impact into direct and indirect effects. influences. The empirical results show that China's air pollution, renewable energy green innovation and fossil energy consumption are extremely uneven in geographical space, generally showing the characteristics of high in the east and low in the west, and showing a strong spatial aggregation phenomenon. Fossil energy consumption will lead to increased air pollution, and the replacement of fossil fuels with clean and renewable energy is an important means of controlling pollution emissions. The direct and indirect effects of renewable energy green innovation on air pollution are significantly negative, indicating that renewable energy green innovation not only suppresses local air pollution, but also suppresses air pollution in neighboring areas. The consumption of fossil energy will significantly increase the local air pollution, and the impact on the SO2 and Dust&Smoke pollution in the adjacent area is not very obvious. It is recommended to strengthen investment in renewable energy green innovation, reduce the proportion of traditional fossil energy consumption, and pay attention to the spatial connection and spillover of renewable energy green innovation.

Target 9.c of the 2015 United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) specifically addresses increasing access to information and communication technology (ICT) resources, and striving for universal access to the internet by 2020. The present study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of the youth related national strategies implemented in this regard by a select number of countries in the Middle East region. The study does so, by relying on a spatial bivariate copula regression analysis of data on youth respondents from five countries, extracted from the 2018 Program for international students’ assessment (PISA). Focusing specifically on evaluating the availability of ICT resources to the youth population, and also identifying the impact of ICT resources on youth subjective well-being in the region, we find that except for the UAE and Qatar that have above OECD average youth performance on the ICT resource index, youth from the remaining countries reported below OECD level average access to ICT resources. The within region cross-country comparative analysis of ICT resources availability to the youth population at home, also highlighted significant heterogeneity across the five countries, post 2015 SDG adoption by UN country members. Furthermore, looking at the impact of ICT resources on youth well-being, controlling for not only cross-country spatial correlations, and factors such as home educational resources, cultural possessions at home, parental occupation status, youth expected occupation status, economic and socio-cultural status, age, gender, and grade level in school; we found that every standard deviation increase in ICT resources to the youth population in the region raises their self-expressed sense of belonging in school by 1.88% standard deviations. Given the empowering nature of ICT resources to youth, and the potential of both to support national as well as regional economic development initiatives, a concerted effort to ease ICT resources diffusion by member countries in the middle east region could assist not only each country in its own development path, but also the region as a whole to live up to its growth potential by the 2030.

The issue of when and how to return to business following COVID-19 lockdown is occupying the minds of policymakers, C-Suite executives and managers the world over. We are concerned by the extent to which it appears that these decisions are being taken on a wing and a prayer, while being pitched to the public as though they shouldn’t be questioned. In this paper, we compare the likely impact of COVID-19 infections from travellers coming from the main countries that visit Greece, to the revenues they generate for the Greek economy. We find that arrivals from some countries should be excluded but aren't, while arrivals from other countries that are excluded perhaps shouldn't be. We show that a rational choice around limitations on the reopening of tourist markets depends on the demand for travel to Greece. We conclude that the current policy is largely economically rational, with some exceptions, but also speculate that Greece may not be ready to handle the resulting infection load.

This paper surveys estimates of the transmission features of the novel coronavirus, and then proposes a model to address sample-selection bias in estimated determinants of infection. Containment assumptions of the infection forecasting models depend on assumed effects of policies and self-regulating behavior. In the commons dilemma of the pandemic, the perceived ‘low risks’ of unregulated marginal choices do not reflect the full social cost, implying non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to reduce mortality can enhance social welfare. As more economic activity renews with liftings of restrictive NPI (RNPI), a critical question concerns the ability of milder NPI (MNPI) and voluntary precautions to mitigate the risk of greater infections and deaths while also limiting the pandemic’s economic damage and its social costs. Ineffective NPI could lead to continued COVID-19 waves and new types of crises, worsened expectations and delayed economic recoveries. From the central range of surveyed estimates of transmission and alternative herd-immunity-threshold estimates, a ‘worst-case’ virus guidepost suggests eventual deaths of around 25 to 41 million worldwide and 1.1 to 1.7 million in the U.S. needed to reach herd immunity with no vaccine or treatment. The most optimistic study surveyed (theoretical model from a non-reviewed preprint study) combined with the low end of the range of the estimated mortality rate suggests 6 to 9 million deaths worldwide and 250 to 370 thousand in the U.S. to reach herd immunity. Successes in the mix of NPI, treatments, and vaccine can limit the eventual global death toll of the virus. Improved estimation models for forecasting and decision making may assist in better targeting the local timings and mix of NPI. Diagnostic tests for the virus have been largely limited to symptomatic cases, causing possible sample selection bias. A recursive bivariate probit model of infection and testing is proposed along with several possible applications from cross-section or panel-data estimation. Multiple potential explanatory variables, data sources, and estimation needs are specified and discussed.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze market reflexivity in agricultural futures contracts with different maturities. To this end, we apply a four-dimensional Hawkes model to storable and non-storable agricultural commodities. We find market reflexivity for both storable and non-storable commodities. Reflexivity accounts for about 50 to 70 percent of the total trading activity. Differences between nearby and deferred contracts are less pronounced for non-storable than for storable commodities. We conclude that the co-existence of exogenous and endogenous price dynamics does not change qualitative characteristics of the price discovery process that have been observed earlier without consideration of market reflexivity.

Economic globalization has increased interdependence, particularly among the developing economies. This has increased the potential of migration across the national borders. In a similar context, the Indian economy has witnessed a rapid growth in the number of migrants after the phase of globalization. The rise in the migrant stock has led to a massive increase in the income generated through international borders in the form of remittances. India has become one of the top recipients of remittances with 79$ billion inflows in 2018. The major factor driving the growth of migrant remittances has been the monetary incentives that raise the standard of living of the recipient’s households. The rise in the income level of these households also affects other economic parameters including consumption and investment. Apart from this, the pattern of migration has also changed since the past few years with skilled workers migrating to the developed economies and unskilled ones migrating to the Gulf economies. In this context, the present study examines the trend and pattern of remittance inflows in India for the period of 1975-2017. Additionally, the study explores how remittance inflows affect the level of household consumption and investments. This relationship was examined using a two-stage least squares method by framing a set of simultaneous equations. The findings of the two-stage least square estimates indicate that though personal remittances do not impact the gross domestic product of the economy directly. But, an increase in the inflow of personal remittances leads to a rise in consumption and investment which in turn plays an important role in determining the Gross Domestic Product of the economy.

In social sciences, a plethora of studies utilize nominal data to establish the relationship between the variables. This, in turn, requires the correct use of correlation technique. The choice of correlation technique depends upon the underlying assumptions and power of the test of significance. The objective of the research is to explore the best measure of association for nominal data in terms of size, power and bias in estimation. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the Phi and Pearson correlation statistics performs equally well in terms of size, power, and bias for naturally dichotomous variables. When both variables are artificially dichotomized, the Tetrachoric statistic has an edge in terms of bias to Pearson correlation statistic. If one variable is continuous and other is artificially dichotomized, the Biserial correlation measure turns out to be less biased as compared to Pearson statistic although both statistics exhibit similar power and size properties. If one variable is continuous and other is naturally dichotomized, it is hard to choose between the Point Biserial and Pearson correlation measures. Finally, if one variable is naturally dichotomous and other is artificially dichotomized, correlation coefficient V is compared with Pearson, Phi and Tetrachoric correlation techniques in terms of bias in estimate. The results indicate that the Tetrachoric statistic considerably overestimates the correlation value against non-normal distributions. Pearson and Phi correlation slightly underestimate the correlation value. In contrast, the correlation statistic V perform well.

Market-orientation is widely applied to understand the expected interaction of smallholder farmers with input and output markets. Commonly used interchangeably with market participation, it is fast becoming a key milestone for attaining smallholder commercialization. This study introduces the term into the disaster resilience, seed systems and livelihoods context. Using a mixed methods approach, 120 smallholder farmers in a drought-affected district of South Africa were sampled, and information collected for analysis. The result shows that most of the farmers rely on purchased seeds and fertilizers for crop production, and on average sold 62% of their farm produce. A market orientation index (MOI) of 55% was estimated, showing that the farmers were market oriented. The farm size, quantities of seeds and fertilizer purchased, value of crop produced, amount received from crop sales, distance to markets and access to credit were found significant in determining their market orientation. Policy interventions were made to improve access to irrigation, seed varieties and extension delivery in the area. The finding has implications for development efforts at rebuilding after a natural disaster, as well as sourcing food aid from local smallholder farmers by humanitarian actors.

It shows the monetary investigation in west countries the big flow in economy by the gross value change effects, also the value of debt policy with debt management strategies to control the budgetary risk of long-term economy from sustainability. The intellectual policies of inflation, GDP, trade, and services and merchandise trade has effected on the West African country’s monetary policies. The implication of trade by a lag of exchange rate indicators has a positive and significant effect. The estimated results reflect the dynamic implication of trade with liquidity and proper monitoring policies. The GDP, gross value (GVA), debt policies, equity of public administration, trade in service and merchandise trade is positive and significant, all are significant. We suggest the optimum control of liquidity with trade service policy recommendations in different countries. The research method was based on 5 countries from the 16 countries of western African and elaborated by their individual indicators with the least square method. The gross value of debts and public administration controlled the development aim of an entire state with strategic and planned environment for state and reduce the level of inflation in small and enterprise section and the results analyzed the policy makers implement planned in implication of trade with domestic currency and long run endogeneity. The results analyzed the monetary policies affecting the level of growth of an individual country.

The impact of monetary policies and their implementation by exchange rate covered the economic condition of Ghana. The social inclusion and conversion factors change the implemented policies of nations, where the real price, trade, technology, a price rate and price level of ratio take an important part of growth. The reform of the financial sector favors the free floating of the exchange rate and global trade by under the premise of flexible exchange rates. The tragedy of country growth and exchange rate toward a trajectory of growth with the growth-enhancing effect through social inclusion, conversion factors, price level ratio, exchange rate, merchant rate, export and trade services. The research study is based on secondary study and social inclusion equity indicators with public resources, building human resources and social protection for economic development has determined. The monetary policies are classified by the different evidence and trade indicators. The significant influence of growth and internal policies has affected trade and exchange rates with growth and reserve policies. The results have computed by linear regression and it proved that social inclusion and alternative conversion factors impact on the global trade and create short term binary relationship.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is considered to be one of the leading health issues in Thailand. CVD not only contributes to an increase in the number of hospital admissions year on year but also impacts on the rising health care expenditure for the treatment and long-term care of CVD patients. Therefore, this study is aimed at examining the impacts of risk reduction strategies on the number of CVD hospital admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and the costs of hospitalisation. To estimate such impacts a CVD cost-offset model wasapplied using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. The number of the mid-year population was classified by age, gender and the CVD risk factor profiles from the recent Thai National Health Examination Survey (NHES) IV. This survey was chosen as the baseline population. The CVD risk factor profiles included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and smoking status. The Asia-Pacific Collaborative Cohort Study (APCCS) equation was applied to predict the probability of developing CVD over the next eight-year period. Estimates on the following were obtained from the model: (1.) the CVD events both fatal and non-fatal; (2.) the difference between the projected number of deaths and the actual number of deaths in that population; (3.) the number of patients who are expected to live with CVD; (4.) the DALYs from the estimated number of fatal and non-fatal events; (5.) the cost of hospital admissions. Four CVD risk strategy scenarios were investigated as follows: (1.) the do nothing scenario; (2.) the optimistic scenario; (3.) achieve the UN millennium development goal; and (4.) the worst-case scenario. The findings showed that over the next eight years there are likely to be 3,297,428 recorded cases of CVD; 5,870,049 cases of DALYs; and, approximately ฿57,000 million, ($1.9 billion), is projected as the total cost of hospital admissions. However, if the current health policy can reduce the levels of risk factors as defined in the optimistic scenario or such policy meets the specifications of the UN millennium development goal,there would be a significant reduction in the number of hospital admissions. These are estimated to be a reduction of 522,179 male and 515,416 female cases. With these results it is expected that health care costs would save approximately ฿9,000 million, ($298.3 million), for CVD and 900,000 million of DALYs over the next eight years. However, if there is an upward trend in the risk factors as predicted in the worst-case scenario, then there will be an increase of 428,220 CVD cases; consequently, DALYs cases may rise by 766,029 while the hospitalisation costs may increase by approximately ฿7,000 million, ($232.1 million). Based on our findings, reducing the levels of CVD risk factors in the population will drastically reduce: (1.) the number of CVD cases; (2.) DALYs cases; and (3.) health care costs. Therefore it is recommended that the health policy should enhance the primary prevention programs which would be targeted at reducing the CVD risk factors in the population.

The polynomial functional specification is widely used in environmental and ecological economics. When different powers of the same variable enter to the specification the elasticity of explained variable with respect to that variable should be obtained using the elasticity formula. Since, in this case the elasticity itself is a function, one need to calculate it at a certain point, to have a general idea about the response of explained variable to the change in explanatory variable. The mainly used point is mean of the variables entering to the elasticity formula. Sometimes, the minimum and maximum points also used for comparison purposes. One should careful in interpreting the response of explanatory variable to the change in the variable entering to the specification with its different powers. This study revisits some methodological points regarding the calculation and interpretation of responses in the above-mentioned cases.

In developed countries, especially the big-sized ones like Australia and the USA, a car is almost an inevitable necessity to carry out daily activities. Due to this, used cars have become a great alternative to brand new cars because of their cost effectiveness. In this work, estimation of prices of used cars based on numerous factors is studied statistically. Data is based on prices of used cars sold across Australia. Statistical methods like correlation and permutation tests using linear regression model, exact tests and non-parametric bootstrapping is implemented to study the relationship of price with mileage and year of manufacture of the car using p-values and null hypothesis. Predictions are also made on the price by calculating a 95% confidence interval (CI) of median prices in small portions of the dataset. The study presents potential ideas for understanding correlation between variables and parameters in business studies.

Climate change is a buzzword in the world. Scientist has approved it as global warming with its projection of undesired and unpredicted frequent extreme events and their vulnerabilities not only at present but also at future. There is an assumption of occurrence of adaptive capacity and behavior of farmers in agriculture production activity at some extent to neutralize climate change vulnerabilities of flood and landslides on paddy production. This paper empirically examines the effects of climate change in paddy production and farmer’s adaptive behaviors to neutralize such climatic shocks and events in paddy production by employing CD production function based econometric model. The study employed primary data collected through 642 household surveys. The study finds that climatic shocks and events have huge loss (60%) in paddy production and revenue income in such plot where farmers have not indigenous knowledge and practices. But both small and larger farmers who have adaptive capacity and behavior with their indigenous knowledge have less loss in paddy production and revenue income, although they have heterogeneity in their socio economic characteristics (income, asset holding, literacy, experience, land holding and age). The farmers who have used adaptive behavior have indigenous knowledge and experiences including bamboo wall construction to control flood and landslides and seed change to resist climatic shocks and events. In hilly region, the farmers have not sufficient alternative measures, except both adaptive measures because of their poverty, illiteracy and remote locations. The study finds their higher effective level to minimize vulnerabilities to paddy production and revenue per farm plot, although these adaptive behaviors are cost effective and local entity. Comparatively, bamboo wall construction is more effective measure in the paddy production than others are (seed switch) to minimize the flooding materials from the flood and the landslides. Thus, low cost indigenous adaption behavior of farmers is effective measure to climate change and climate change induced disasters and events vulnerability in paddy production.

This study have uniquely mad use of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models to address the core of the threes objectives set out in view of the focus to add meaningful value to knowledge exploration. The outcome of the research have testify the achievements of this through successful nine months out-of-sample forecasts produced from the program codes, with indicating best model choices from the empirical estimation. In addition, the results also provide description of risks produced from the uncertainty Fan Chart, which clearly outlined possible downside and upside risks to tourist visitations in the country. In the conclusion, it was suggested that downside risks to the low level tourist arrival can be managed through collaboration between authorities concerned with the management of tourist arrivals in the country.

Model selection and model averaging have been the popular approaches in handling modelling uncertainties. Fan and Li(2006) laid out a unified frame work for variable selection via penalized likelihood. The tuning parameter selection is vital in the optimization problem for the penalized estimators in achieving consistent selection and optimal estimation. Since the OLSpost-LASSO estimator by Belloni and Chernozhukov (2013), few studies have focused on the finite sample performances of the class of OLS post-penalty estimators with the tuning parameter choice determined by different tuning parameter selection approaches. We aim to supplement the existing model selection literature by studying such a class of OLS post-selection estimators. Inspired by the Shrinkage Averaging Estimator (SAE) by Schomaker(2012) and the Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) criterion by Hansen (2007), we further propose a Shrinkage Mallows Model Averaging (SMMA) estimator for averaging high dimensional sparse models. Based on the Monte Carlo design by Wang et al. (2009) which features an expanding sparse parameter space as the sample size increases, our Monte Carlo design further considers the effect of the effective sample size and the degree of model sparsity on the finite sample performances of model selection and model averaging estimators. From our data examples, we find that the OLS post-SCAD(BIC) estimator in finite sample outperforms most of the current penalized least squares estimators as long as the number of parameters does not exceed the sample size. In addition, the SMMA performs better given sparser models. This supports the use of the SMMA estimator when averaging high dimensional sparse models.

In social & health sciences, many statistical procedures and estimation techniques rely on the underlying distributional assumption of normality of the data. Non-normality may lead to incorrect statistical inferences. This study evaluates the performance of selected normality tests on the stringency framework for the skewed alternative space. Stringency concept allows us to rank the tests uniquely. Bonett & Seier test (T_w) turns out to be the best statistics for slightly skewed alternatives and the Anderson-Darling (AD), Chen-Shapiro (CS), Shapiro-Wilk (W) and Bispo, Marques, & Pestana, (BCMR) statistics are the best choices for moderately skewed alternative distributions. Maximum loss of Jarque-Bera (JB) and its robust form (RJB), in terms of deviations from the power envelope, is greater than 50% even for large sample sizes which makes them less attractive in testing the hypothesis of normality against the moderately skewed alternatives. On balance, all selected normality tests except T_w and COIN performed exceptionally well against the highly skewed alternative space.

Relying on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) extract from the cross-national data sample on the environmental affection and cognition of adolescent students, and seemingly unrelated bivariate weighted ordered probit regression modeling, this study adopts a national perspective to investigate the determinants of adolescent students' awareness and expectations about nuclear power technology and nuclear waste in the UAE. Identification of model parameters is achieved through maximum simulated likelihood estimation. The findings show that each level increase in UAE youth's interest in ecosystem services and sustainability raises their awareness of nuclear electrical power and nuclear waste by 13.5%, while reducing by 2.4% their level of optimism towards the technology. Furthermore, we find significant heterogeneity in youth awareness and expectations about nuclear power technology across the seven Emirates. Accounting for all other factors (including interest in ecosystem services), UAE youth awareness about nuclear electrical power technology appears to not significantly influence their expectations about the evolution of this technology for the next 20 years. Given that the UAE first nuclear power plant ``Barakah'' is scheduled to start operations end of 2019 beginning 2020, and the typical long life-span of nuclear wastes, our results provide important insights for developing sustainable nuclear energy policies and establishing a long-term nuclear energy program in the UAE.

XGBoost is recognized as an algorithm with exceptional predictive capacity. Models for a binary response indicating the existence of accident claims vs. no claims can be used to identify the determinants of traffic accidents. We compare the relative performances of logistic regression and XGBoost approaches for predicting the existence of accident claims using telematics data. The dataset contains information from an insurance company about individuals’ driving patterns – including total annual distance driven and percentage of total distance driven in urban areas. Our findings show that logistic regression is a suitable model given its interpretability and good predictive capacity. XGBoost requires numerous model-tuning procedures to match the predictive performance of the logistic regression model and greater effort as regards interpretation.

We provide a comprehensive framework for forecasting five minute load using Gaussian processes with a positive definite kernel specifically designed for load forecasts. Gaussian processes are probabilistic, enabling us to draw samples from a posterior distribution and provide rigorous uncertainty estimates to complement the point forecast, an important benefit for forecast consumers. As part of the modeling process, we discuss various methods for dimension reduction and explore their use in effectively incorporating weather data to the load forecast. We provide guidance for every step of the modeling process, from model construction through optimization and model combination. We provide results on data from the PJMISO for various periods in 2018. The process is transparent, mathematically motivated, and reproducible. The resulting model provides a probability density of five-minute forecasts for 24 hours.

This paper studies the impact of agricultural subsidies and product certification on the use rate of green pesticides based on experimental economics. We found that agricultural subsidies effectively increased the utilization rate of green pesticides. If the agricultural subsidies raised from 20% to 100%, the green pesticides’ using rate increased by 438.51%. We also found that product certification increased the utilization rate of green pesticides by 376.16%%.The increase of agricultural subsidies is more effective than the product certification. Under a higher proportion of agricultural subsidies, farmers’ behavior will maintain “status bias”. Therefore, there are three suggestions proposed. Firstly, because of high price of green pesticides and lower production, the subsidies for agricultural materials should raise greatly to effectively improve the utilization rate of green pesticides. It is recommended that green pesticide provided free of charge in some wealthy areas. Secondly, both subsidies and product certification can improve the use rate of green pesticides. However, since the effect of agricultural subsidies is better than product certification, and farmers may have status bias. Therefore, it is recommended to give priority to the substantial increase on the proportion of agricultural subsidies, and then to product certification.

Having sustained, over the course of more than two decades, record-breaking natural catastrophe losses, American insurers and reinsurers are justifiably questioning the potential linkage between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather. Here, we explore issues pertaining to this linkage, looking at both the likely short-term implications for the insurance industry, as well as potential longer-term impacts on financial performance and corporate resilience. We begin our discussion with an overview of the implications that climate change is likely to have on the industry, especially as it relates to how catastrophic risks are construed, assessed, and managed. We then present the rudiments of an econometric analysis that explores the financial resilience of the property/casualty (P/C) industry in the face of both natural and man-made catastrophes. In this analysis, we explore the profitability consequences of several illustrative scenarios involving large-scale losses from extreme weather—specifically, a sequence of storms like those striking the U.S. in 2004—and a scenario that explores the prospect of a Katrina-scale storm in combination with a mass terror attack on the scale of 9/11. At systemic levels of aggregation, our analysis suggests a high degree of macro-resilience for the insurance industry. Moreover, we find that insurer resilience is higher for larger impacts, considering both the speed of recovery, as well as the inverse of the area under the unaffected system profile. We conclude with a summary of our findings and a closing commentary that explores the potential implications of these results for P/C insurers moving forward.

Soybean yields are often indicated as an interesting case of climate change mitigation due to the beneficial effects of CO₂ fertilization. In this paper we econometrically study this effect using a time series model of yields in a multivariate framework for a main producer and exporter of this commodity, Argentina. We have to deal with the upward behavior of soybean yields trying to identify which variables are the long-run determinants responsible of its observed trend. With this aim we adopt a partial system approach to estimate subsets of long-run relationships due to climate, technological and economic factors. Using an automatic selection algorithm we evaluate encompassing of the different obtained equilibrium correction models. We found that only technological innovations due to new crop practices and the use of modified seeds explain soybean yield in the long run. Regarding short run determinants we found positive effects associated with the use of standard fertilizers and also from changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration which would suggest a mitigation effect from global warming. However, we also found negative climate effects from periods of droughts associated with La Niña episodes, high temperatures and extreme rainfall events during the growing season of the plant.

This paper based on systems - theoretic approach to the definition of a country's GDP as not directly observable characteristic of system state. Leontief dynamic model is generalized to take into account the stimulating effect of consumption on GDP growth. In consumption, apart from final consumption, terms are considered: balance of foreign trade, fictitious investments and hidden costs. The Kalman filter uses Rosstat's gross output (for system output) and final consumption (for system control) data from 1995 to 2015. It is concluded that if in the years 2014, 2015 it was possible to increase consumption by 5% by, say, price cuts or some increase in money supply, then GDP would be greater by about 2.5%. GDP real values in recent years are most likely greater than official values. Fictitious investments and hidden costs are found in the amount of up to third the value of final consumption. The accuracy of one-year forecasts of true GDP by the methodology of this article is approximately 1.5%.

This paper utilizes dynamic panel threshold technology to conduct a nonlinear test on the direct effect between environmental regulation and economic fluctuations and the effect of industrial structure upgrading by taking 35 industrial sectors in China from 2003 to 2016 . The research has found that there is an inverted "U" relationship between environmental regulation and economic fluctuations, with the enhancement of environmental regulations, the economic fluctuation increases first and then decreases. The cross-terms of environmental regulation and industrial structure rationalization or industrial structure upgrading are significantly negative, which indicates that the enhancement of environmental regulation is conducive to promoting industrial structure upgrading and reducing the economic fluctuations. While the rationalization factors of industrial structure and advanced industrial structure are significantly negative, indicating that both forms of industrial structure upgrading are conducive to reducing the economic fluctuations. Environmental regulation has technical innovation thresholds for industrial structure upgrading and economic fluctuations, but there are no human capital or FDI thresholds. In the rationalization model of industrial structure, there is a nonlinear "U" relationship between environmental regulation and economic fluctuations when the proportion of scientific research expenditure is more than 1.35%. With the enhancement of environmental regulation, the economic fluctuation reduces first and then increases, and the corresponding inflection point value is 2.398% of the environmental regulation level. At the same time, the environmental regulation can indirectly reduce economic fluctuations by pushing down the industrial structure upgrades. In the advanced model of industrial structure, there is a “U” relationship between environmental regulation and economic fluctuation when the proportion of scientific research expenditure is greater than 1.26%. With continuous enhancement of environmental regulation, the economic fluctuation reduces first and then increases. The corresponding inflection point value is 1.78% of the environmental regulation level, and environmental regulation can indirectly reduce economic fluctuations by promoting the industrial structure at the same time.

Based on the Expected Utility Theory and Regret Theory, the Extended Regret Theory (ERT) is proposed in this paper to study the optimal pricing strategy of retailers in e-commerce environment. Taking the diversity of sales channels and the uncertainty of consumers in e-commerce environment into consideration, author of the paper designs an extended regret utility function which comprehensively considers both pessimistic and optimistic attitudes of decision makers in retailing industry to describe their regret-avoidance behavior. According to the sensitivity analysis, it is found that the optimal retail price decreases as the consumer price sensitivity coefficient increases, yet does not show variation with changes of the consumers pessimism degree. Moreover, the optimal retail price(s) obtained under EUT, ERT and combination of EUT and ERT represent the same.

Various sudden shifts in financial market conditions over the past decades have demonstrated the significant impact of market structural breaks on firms' credit behavior. To characterize such effect quantitatively, we develop a continuous-time modulated Markov model for firms' credit rating transitions with the possibility of market structural breaks. The model takes a semi-parametric multiplicative regression form, in which the effects of firms' observable covariates and macroeconomic variables are represented parametrically and nonparametrically, respectively, and the frailty effects of unobserved firm-specific and market-wide variables are incorporated via the integration form of the model assumption. We further develop a mixtured-estimating-equation approach to make inference on the effect of market variations, baseline intensities of all firms' credit rating transitions, and rating transition intensities for each individual firm. We then use the developed model and inference procedure to analyze the monthly credit rating of U.S. firms from January 1986 to December 2012, and study the effect of market structural breaks on firms' credit rating transitions.

Global financial investments in energy production and consumption are significant since all aspects of a country's economic activity, and development require energy resources. In this paper, we assess the investment trends in the global energy sector during, before and after financial crises of 2008 using two data sources: (1) Dealogic database providing cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As), and (2) fDi Intelligence fDi Markets database providing greenfield (GF) foreign direct investments (FDIs). We highlight the changing role of China and compare its M&A and GF FDI activities to those of the United States, Germany, UK, Japan and others during this period. We analyze the investments along each segment of the energy supply chain of these countries to highlight the geographical origin and destination, sectoral distribution, and cross‐border M&As and GF FDI activities. Our paper shows that while energy accounts for nearly 25% of all GF FDI, it only accounts for 4.82% of total M&A FDI activity in the period 1996-2016. China's outbound FDI in the energy sector started its ascent around the time of the global recession and had accelerated in the post-recession phase. In the energy sector, the development of China's outbound cross‐border M&As is similar to USA or UK, located mostly in the developed countries in the west, while their outbound GF investments are spread across many countries around the world. Also, China's outbound energy M&As are concentrated in certain segments (extraction, and electricity generation) while their GF covers all segments of the energy supply chain.

In this paper, we use the Principal Components Logistic Regression as a technique to reduce the variables being used in Credit Scoring Modeling. Specifically, we construct two models in which greek enterprises are classified, through their credit behavior and we evaluate them, relying on real data. In general, we propose a general way to use PC Regression, in case that we have high correlations and categorical variables in the sample.

This paper compares the finite sample performance of three non-parametric threshold estimators via Monte Carlo method. Our results show that the finite sample performance of the three estimators is not robust to the relative position of the threshold level along the distribution of threshold variable, especially when a structural change occurs at the tail part of the distribution.

This survey paper discusses the Cointegrated VAR methodology and how it has evolved over the last 30 years. The first section is a description of major steps in the econometric development of the CVAR model that facilitated serious real world applications. The next three sections are primarily methodological and discuss (i) difficulties and puzzles when confronting theory with the data, (ii) the formulation of a viable link between theory and the data, a so called theory-consistent CVAR scenario, and (iii) how all this was inspired by Trygve Haavelmo and his Nobel prize winning monograph "The Probability Approach to Economics". The next two sections discuss early applications of the Cointegrated VAR model to monetary transmission mechanisms, international transmission mechanisms and wage, price and unemployment dynamics. They report puzzling evidence, discuss the need for new theory, and propose a method for combining partial CVAR analyses into a larger macroeconomic model. The following sections propose a new, empirically-based, approach to macroeconomics in which imperfect knowledge based expectations replace so called rational expectations and in which the financial sector plays a key role for understanding the long persistent movements in the data. The last section argues that the CVAR can act as a "design of experiment for passive observations" and illustrates with several applications including unemployment dynamics under crises periods and aid effectiveness in South Saharan African countries.

Declining water supply is the main cause of rising water fee for agricultural use. Moreover, in non-technical irrigation, poor irrigation infrastructure exacerbates water scarcity. Thus, the purpose of this study is to identify farmer willingness to pay for non-technical irrigation and its determinants. Structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 100 farmers. Contingent valuation method was employed to elicit farmer WTP and multiple linear regression was used to find its determinants. The result shows that farmer average WTP is Rp 3,055,168 /ha/year. It accounts for 20 percent of total farmer revenue and almost 20 times fee for technical irrigation. Economic and technical variables are the significant determinants of WTP while social variables seem insignificant to WTP. This result indicates high economic value of water, and to improve irrigation management we recommend establishing irrigation infrastructure gradually by mobilizing farmer resources (capital and management) and strengthening WUA.

This study inscribes itself in the global discussion on the nurturing of pro-environmental behaviors among young people for a sustainable future. Here we focus on students' interest in Ecosystem Services and Sustainability to explain their awareness and optimism about the environmental issues of air pollution, water shortage and green gas emission in 50 countries around the world. To this end, we use the cross-sectional survey data of the OECD's Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2015, along with seemingly unrelated bi-variate weighted ordered Probit modeling with country specific effects. The results show that in addition to factors such as age, gender, immigration status, and economic, social and cultural status, interest in the biosphere is a significant determinant of students' environmental awareness and optimism. In fact, a one level increase in students' interest in ecosystem services and sustainability raises on average their awareness level by 15.3% for the issue of air pollution, 15.7% for the issue of water shortage, and 24.6% for the issue of green gas emission. Although students' interest in the biosphere seems to not have a significant effect on their expectations about the issue of green gas emission, it does however raise their level of optimism by 0.8% for the issue of air pollution, and 0.2% for the issue of water shortage. Furthermore, every one level increase in students' environmental awareness leads to 17.3% more optimism about the issue of air pollution, 15.8% more optimism about the issue of water shortage, and 17.4% more optimism about the issue of green gas emission. Therefore, relying on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), our results imply that governments and policy makers can successfully leverage young people interests in the biosphere to effectively achieve their goals for sustainability.

Confidence in intermodal transport has not yet been defined. There are many different approaches to the concept of trust. However, the authors embedded them in the light of the challenges of sustainability, linking with the shift paradigm. The objective of the article is to indicate the directions and criteria for the implementation of the shift paradigm, inscribed in the idea of sustainable transport. The auxiliary objective is to predict which countries in a given year will have the TRUST status, i.e. implement the shift paradigm, and which will not implement it (DISTRESS). The article uses taxonometric techniques and built a model using General Discriminant Analysis. On their basis, the utility function was approximated, including the directions of implementation of the shift paradigm depending on the scale of the environmental load of transport. In the course of the research, an original and innovative econometric model was constructed, pointing to three variables, which had the greatest impact on trust. Thanks to the cognitive value of the model, it is possible to identify individuals who deserve the trust, i.e. it will implement the shift paradigm, with 93% probability. In the future, it is worth expanding the research by models for each country.

This paper studies the influence mechanism of industrial agglomeration and foreign direct investment (FDI) on green total factor productivity (GTFP). We use the SBM Directional Distance Function to measure the GTFP of Chongqing's manufacturing industry from 1999 to 2015. The results show that the level of GTFP in Chongqing's manufacturing industry is relatively low, which is contrary to the current green development mode. By clarifying the conduction path of industrial agglomeration and FDI on GTFP, we use the panel Tobit model to study the effect of industrial agglomeration and FDI on GTFP. The main findings are: the higher the level of industrial agglomeration, the more beneficial it is to increase GTFP. FDI has an inhibitory effect on GTFP. The spillover effect of FDI on GTFP is not significant. At the same time, FDI counteracts the role of industrial agglomeration in promoting GTFP. The findings in a present study indicate that, according to Chongqing's experience, the "pollution haven" is established. Therefore, relying solely on foreign technology to promote the development of the manufacturing industry has many drawbacks clearly. Only by improving the ability of independent innovation is the reliable way to enhance GTFP effectively.

Cartels cause tremendous damage to the market economy and disadvantage consumers by causing higher prices and lower quality; moreover, they are difficult to detect. We need to prevent them by scientific analysis, which includes the determination of an indicator to explain antitrust enforcement. Particularly, the probability of cartel penalization is a useful indicator for the evaluation of the competition enforcement. This study is to estimate the probability of cartel penalization by using a Bayesian approach. In the empirical study, the probability of cartel penalization is estimated by Bayesian approach from cartel data of Department of Justice in United States from 1970 to 2009. The probability of cartel penalization is seen to be sensitive to change of competition law and the results shows the usefulness of higher interpretation than other research. The result of the policy simulation shows how effective the leniency program is. From this estimation, antitrust enforcement is evaluated, and thereby, can be improved.

This paper examines the regional changes of corn production and the relationship between ethanol production and corn production. The underlying hypothesis is that the rapid growth in ethanol production causes regional expansion of corn production outside the traditional regions. This paper introduces the information approach developed by entropy theory to describe these regional changes. The results support the hypothesis that ethanol production leads to expansion of corn production outside traditional corn producing regions.

This paper employs the two-step procedure developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) to analyze the causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance between the housing and stock markets of the UK. The empirical findings make two key contributions. First, although previous studies have indicated a one-way causal relation from the housing market to the stock market in the UK, this paper discovered a two-way causal relation between them. Second, a causality-in-variance as well as a causality-in-mean was detected from the housing market to the stock market.

This research contributes to the overall debate on education for sustainable development (ESD) by shed- ding lights on the contributing role of formal education to the contemporaneous dynamics of literacy, labor market participation and poverty reduction in Africa, with a focus on Burkina Faso. The study uses a semi-parametric recursive trivariate probit modeling approach, and data from the 2014 National Survey on Household Living Conditions in Burkina Faso. The results show that the embraced systemic approach in this analysis is statistically signicant as shown by the 95% condence intervals on the three correlation coeffcients in the model. Furthermore, education does improve literacy skills, however improved literacy skills in itself does not guaranty active labor market participation in Burkina Faso. Active labor market participation seem to be affected by labor market rates of return, and individual reservation wage (or income). When labor market rate of return is short of high literacy skilled individuals' reservation wage, then the natural response is a choice of inactivity in the labor market, by the later group. Simultaneously however, it is found that active labor market participation leads to poverty reduction; therefore, in addition to new industrial policies for structural transformation of the economy, policy makers in Burkina Faso should consider education and minimum wage reforms to give highly literate household members the incentive to be active in the labor market.

Relying on Random Utility Theory (RUT) as the guiding mechanism for the Data Generating Process (DGP), this paper uses households consumption choices on cooking fuel, drinking water, and sanitation from the 2014 United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data on Burkina Faso, to characterize and investigate the inter-linkages between health consciousness and environmental consciousness, and their relationship with wealth in a low income country context. We achieve this by specifying sequentially three econometric modeling frameworks: the first one being independent binary probit (IBP) models to describe each choice process, followed by a fully parametric trivariate probit (FPTP) model to account for choice dependency, and finally by a semi-parametric trivariate probit (SPTP) model to further relax the linearity assumption. Based on the Akaike Information criteria (AIC) and the estimated Trivariate model correlation coefficients, the SPTP framework is found to be the best specification for describing the observed consumption behaviors. The results show that increased wealth level raises households health and environmental consciousness, while leaving the relative preference ordering over the elements in the household consumption basket unchanged.

Nonlinear nonparametric statistics (NNS) algorithm offers new tools for curve fitting. A relationship between k-means clustering and NNS regression points is explored with graphics showing a perfect fit in the limit. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate NNS as a form of unsupervised learning, and supply a proof of its limit condition. The procedural similarity NNS shares with vector quantization is also documented, along with identical outputs for NNS and a k nearest neighbours classification algorithm under a specific NNS setting. Fisher's iris data and artificial data are used. Even though a perfect fit should obviously be reserved for instances of high signal to noise ratios, NNS permits greater flexibility by offering a large spectrum of possible fits from linear to perfect.

Currently, the pesticides are the global core concern because it is a boon to farmers against increasing disease-pest and simultaneously, pesticide residue is the major anxiety regarding human health. For that reason, identification and determination of factors affecting the application of pesticides are essential. To identify and evaluate determinants of pesticides application in Nepal, a household survey of 300 households was carried-out and an empirical analysis was done using multivariate probit model. Moreover, powder and liquid forms of pesticides were considered for summer and winter season in vegetable farming, which was assigned as outcome variables. Likewise, socio-economic, demographic, farm-level and perception data were considered as explanatory variables. Use of chemical fertilizers, age and gender of head of household, household size and access to weather information were found the most influencing factors. Moreover, forms of pesticides and growing seasons were found complementary to each other. Therefore, devising the policy options accordingly should balance needs of farmers and health of consumers.

In this paper a dynamic relationship between the CO2 emissions in Finland, Norway and Sweden is presented. With the help of a VAR(2) model, and using the Granger terminology, it is shown that the emissions in Finland are affecting those in Norway and Sweden. Other aspects of this dynamic relationship are presented as well.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the nature of relationship between service quality and customers’ satisfaction thorough SERVQUAL model. This study can be considered as an applied research, from purpose point of view and descriptive-survey, with regards to the nature and method. Passengers of Kaveh and Sofeh terminal in Isfahan have been considered as research population. Sample size included 200 passengers witch was determined by Cochran formula. Spss 19 was used to analyze collected data. Results show that there is a significant positive relationship between service quality and customers’ satisfaction. It is also proved that in terms of the importance of satisfactions’ dimensions, assurance is the most important aspect and then reliability, empathy, equipment appearance and responsiveness in sequence are the most important dimensions.

A copula is a useful tool for constructing bivariate and/or multivariate distributions. In this article, we consider a new modified class of (Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern) FGM bivariate copula for constructing several dierent bivariate Kumaraswamy type copulas and discuss their structural properties, including dependence structures. It is established that construction of bivariate distributions by this method allows for greater flexibility in the values of Spearman's correlation coefficient rho,  and Kendall's tau . For illustrative purposes, one representative data set is utilized to exhibit the applicability of these proposed bivariate copula models.

It is well known that that there is an intrinsic link between the financial and energy sectors, which can be analyzed through their spillover effects, which are measures of how the shocks to returns in different assets affect each other’s subsequent volatility in both spot and futures markets. Financial derivatives, which are not only highly representative of the underlying indices, but can also be traded on both the spot and futures markets, include Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), a tradable spot index whose aim is to replicate the return of an underlying benchmark index. When ETF futures are not available to examine spillover effects, “generated regressors” are useful for constructing both Financial ETF futures and Energy ETF futures. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the co-volatility spillovers within and across the US energy and financial sectors in both spot and futures markets, by using “generated regressors” and a multivariate conditional volatility model, namely Diagonal BEKK. The daily data used are from 1998/12/23 to 2016/4/22. The data set is analyzed in its entirety, and are also subdivided into three distinct subsets. The empirical results show there is a significant relationship between the Financial ETF and Energy ETF in the spot and futures markets. Therefore, financial and energy ETFs are suitable for constructing a financial portfolio from an optimal risk management perspective, and also for dynamic hedging purposes.

China is facing huge pressure on CO2 emissions reduction. The heavy industry accounts for over 60% of China’s total energy consumption, and thus lead to a large number of energy-related carbon emissions. This paper adopts the Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method based on the extended Kaya identity to explore the influencing factors of CO2 emissions from China’s heavy industry; we calculate the trend of decoupling by presenting a theoretical framework for decoupling. The results show that labor productivity, energy intensity, and industry scale are the main factors affecting CO2 emissions in the heavy industry. The improvement of labor productivity is the main cause of the increase in CO2 emissions, while the decline in energy intensity leads to CO2 emissions reduction, and the industry scale has different effects in different periods. Results from the decoupling analysis show that efforts made on carbon emission reduction, to a certain extent, achieved the desired outcome but still need to be strengthened.

Studies on the structure of economic systems are, most frequently, carried out by the methods of informational statistics. These methods, often accompanied by a wide range of indicators (Shannon entropy, Balassa coefficient, Herfindahl specialty index, Gini coefficient, Theil index etc.) around which a wide literature has been created over time, have a major disadvantage. Such weakness is related to the imposition of the system condition, therefore the need to know all the components of the system (as absolute values or as weights). This restriction is difficult to accomplish in some situations, and in others, this knowledge may be irrelevant, especially when there is an interest in structural changes only in some of the components of the economic system (either we refer to the typology of economic activities - NACE or of territorial units – NUTS). This article presents a procedure for characterizing the structure of a system and for comparing its evolution over time, in the case of incomplete information, thus eliminating the restriction existent in the classical methods. The proposed methodological alternative uses a parametric distribution, with subunit values for the variable. The application refers to Gross Domestic Product values for five of the 28 European Union countries, with annual values of over 1,000 billion Euros (Germany, Spain, France, Italy and United Kingdom) for the years 2003 and 2015. A form of the Wald sequential test is applied to measure changes in the structure of this group of countries, between the years compared. The results of this application validate the proposed method.

The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.

Reducing carbon emissions is a major ways to achieving green development and sustainability for China’s future. This paper elaborates the detailed feature of China's carbon flow for 2013 with the carbon flow chart and gives changing characteristics of China's CO₂ flow from the viewpoint of sector and energy during 2000 and 2013. The results show that (1) during 2000 to 2013, China's CO₂ emissions with the approximately growth portion of 9% annually, while the CO₂ intensity of China diminishes at different rates. (2) The CO₂ emissions from secondary industry are prominent from the perspective of four main sectors accounting for 83.5%. The manufacturing play an important part in the secondary industry with 45%. In which the "smelting and pressing of metal" takes up a large percentage as about 50% in manufacturing. (3) The CO₂ emissions produced by coal consumption is keep dominant in energy-related emissions with a contribution of 65%, while it will decrease in the future. (4) From the aspect of sector, the CO₂ emissions mainly come from the "electricity and heating" sector and the "smelting and pressing of metals" sub-sector. While it is essential and urgent to propose concrete recommendations for CO₂ emissions mitigation. Firstly, the progression of creative technology is inevitable and undeniable. Secondly, the government should make different CO₂ emissions reduction policies among different sectors. For example, the process emission plays an important role in "non-metallic mineral" while in "smelting and manufacturing of metals" it is energy. Thirdly, the country can change the energy structure and promote renewable energy for powering by wind or other low-carbon energy. Besides it, the coke oven gas can be a feasible substitution. Finally, policy maker should be aware of the emissions from residents have been growing in a fast rate. It is effective to involve the public in the activity of energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction such as reducing the times of personal transportation.