Climate change is a major development challenge to Ethiopia. Unless adaptation measures are widely implemented, climate change can set back development efforts and achievements by years. Recognizing this, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and civil society organizations have since recently been making considerable efforts to tackle the climate change problem. This paper documents the experience of CARE International in Ethiopia in facilitating bottom-up approaches to promote community-led disaster risk management and climate change adaptation planning through a participator scenario planning (PSP) methodology. PSP is a coordinated approach which leverages a variety of stakeholders' skills and mandates to explore potential climate change risks and their impacts, and then develop locally relevant and shared adaptation action plans that support livelihoods, social capital and ecosystem resilience. The approach has facilitated timely access to and communication of seasonal climate advisories which in turn is empowering communities to take advantage of opportunities that climate presents, which is a key part of adapting to climate change. The institutionalization of the approach by district and regional disaster prevention and food security coordination offices in the southern pastoral regions of Ethiopia encouraged integration of PSP into community livelihood adaptation and local government development planning, hence continuity of the process. Sustainability is expected to be fully achieved when local government planning processes recognize the importance of and provides resources for the participation of meteorological services and community forecasting experts to help refine plans on a seasonal basis, and for systems for dissemination of advisories. Key words: Climate Change, Disaster Risk Reduction, Adaptation, Pastoralism, Ethiopia,

A numerical approach for generating a limited number of water demand scenarios and estimating their occurrence probabilities in a Water Distribution Network (WDN) is proposed. This approach makes use of the demand scaling laws in order to consider the natural variability and spatial correlation of nodal consumptions. The scaling laws are employed to determine the statistics of nodal consumption as a function of the number of users and the main statistical features of the unitary user's demand. Besides, consumption at each node is considered to follow a Gamma probability distribution. A high number of groups of cross-correlated demands, i.e., scenarios, for the entire network were generated using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and the numerical procedure proposed by Iman and Conover. The Kantorovich distance is used to reduce the number of scenarios and estimate their corresponding probabilities, while keeping the statistical information on nodal consumptions. By hydraulic simulation, the whole number of generated demand scenarios was used to obtain a corresponding number of pressure scenarios on which the same reduction procedure was applied. The probabilities of the reduced scenarios of pressure were compared with the corresponding probabilities of demand.

There is increasing interest in automating train operations of mainline services, e.g. to increase network capacity. Automatic train operation (ATO) is already achieved by several pilot projects, but not implemented on a large scale. Before the general introduction of new or adapted technologies can have a transformative effect on the operation of such a complex system as train operation on mainlines, they have to pass functional, interoperability and performance tests. A virtual preliminary analysis is one way to ensure a smooth as well as safe introduction and implementation. This paper aims to present an approach that applies to the performance testing of ATO systems. Therefore, methods and test standards for technologies enabling automatic operation in other transport sectors are reviewed. The main findings have been adapted, transformed and combined to be used as a general strategy for virtual performance testing in the railway sector. Specifically, universal performance indicators, namely punctuality, accuracy, energy consumption, safety and comfort, are presented. A layer model for scenario description is adapted from the automotive sector, as well as the definition of different scenario types. Lastly, factors that can influence the performance of an ATO algorithm are identified. To demonstrate the developed approach, a straightforward investigation of a case study is conducted using a microscopic train simulator in combination with an ATO algorithm.

The increasingly used approach of combining different simulation software in testing of automated driving systems (ADS) increases the need for potential and convenient software designs. Recently developed co-simulation platforms (CSP) provide the possibility to cover the high demand on testing kilometers for ADS by combining vehicle simulation software (VSS) with traffic flow simulation software (TFSS) environments. The emphasis on the demand of testing kilometers is not enough to choose a suitable CSP. The complexity level of the used vehicle, object, sensors and environment models is essential for valid and representative simulation results. Choosing a suitable CSP raises the question of how the test procedures should be defined and constructed and what the relevant test scenarios are. Parameters of the ADS, the environments, objects, sensors in VSS as well as traffic parameters in TFSS can be used to define and generate test scenarios. In order to generate a large number of scenarios in a systematic and automated way, suitable and appropriate software designs are required. In this paper we present a software design for CSP based on the Model-View-Controller (MVC) design pattern and implementation of a complex CSP for virtual testing of ADS. Based on this design, an implementation of a CSP is presented using the VSS from IPG Automotive called CarMaker and the TFSS from PTV Group called Vissim. The results have shown that the presented CSP design and the implementation of the co-simulation can be used to generate relevant scenarios for testing of ADS.

Diversification is an important strategy for managing risk in agricultural systems. Risk analysis can help to support farmers’ diversification strategies, but existing analytical methods are complicated and little used. The minimum regret model helps to fill this gap. It provides a simple, transparent calculation procedure that can be executed with existing spreadsheet software. Regret is an important heuristic in the behavioural sciences and regret-based models are used in finance. The article presents the model with a numerical example. It also presents a framework to compare minimum regret portfolios with two limit cases (maximum utility and minimax regret). A case study illustrates the use of the model and the comparative framework.

The interest in renewable energy to replace fossil fuel is increasing as the problem caused by climate change become more severe. Small hydropower (SHP) is evaluated as a resource with high development value because of its high energy density compared to other renewable energy sources. SHP may be an attractive and sustainable power generation environmental perspective because of its potential to be found in small rivers and streams. The power generation potential could be estimated based on the discharge in the river basin. Since the river discharge depends on the climate conditions, the hydropower generation potential changes sensitively according to climate variability. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the SHP potential in consideration of future climate change. In this study, the future prospect of SHP potential is simulated for the period of 2021 to 2100 considering the climate change in three hydropower plants of Deoksong, Hanseok, and Socheon stations, Korea. As the results, SHP potential for the near future (2021 to 2040) shows a tendency to be increased and the highest increase is 23.4% at the Deoksong SPH plant. Through the result of future prospect, we have shown that hydroelectric power generation capacity or SHP potential will be increased in the future. Therefore, we believe that it is necessary to revitalize the development of SHP in order to expand the use of renewable energy. Also, a methodology presented in this study could be used for the future prospect of the small hydropower potential.

We analyze the Covid-19 mortality scenario in India and compare it with those in other large-population regions such as Asia-excluding-China, Africa, European Union, South America, and USA. We compare existing fatality data and offer an interpretation for low fatality based on immunity due to endemic malaria and TB. We identify the hot climate in the past summer as a possible cause for low death count in southern-hemisphere countries without endemic malaria and TB. We also make India-specific observations for easing the lockdown and estimations for the time required to attain herd immunity. Whatever optimism we present should be viewed as a guarded optimism. There should not be room for complacency.

Controlling and managing risk is always a critical point for the managers, investors and even consultants. Having clear and better percepts about future can reduce the risk of fail. In addition it is important for a risk analyzer to consider the stakeholders views and senses about the risk. This research aimed at framing a comprehensive risk management model which builds up on stakeholder requirements and forecasting techniques. This conceptual model attempts to use the stakeholder’s points of view to write prefer and probable scenarios to neglect critical risks and increase the chance of success in long-term plannings. Using futures studies methods prepare decision makers for the possible upcoming events and donate them a powerful tool to handle the uncertainties cover the future.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the power to generate scenarios and make predictions through the use of advanced algorithms and machine learning techniques. OpenAI’s GPT-3 AI is a state-of-the-art language model that has been trained on a large dataset of text, which allows it to generate hu-man-like text, and it can generate scenarios for different fields. However, GPT-3 was trained on data available up until June 2021, had no access to more recent data nor was connected to the internet. In this study, we investigated the capability of OpenAI’s GPT-3 AI to predict the Ukrainian war es-calation, which started in 2022 and had massive geopolitical effects. We used GPT-3´s capability to generate future scenarios, to check those scenarios for internal consistency, and to create a proba-bility estimate. The results showed that although GPT-3 described an open war as one of the low probability scenarios, its capability on predicting the future was limited. Furthermore, it became evident that checking internal consistency of the generated scenarios could be improved. We ap-preciated GPT-3 as very useful and powerful for generating future scenarios, but also concluded that its prediction capabilities of real-world events are limited, should be used with caution, and require further development.

Global pandemic COVID-19 is in stage 4 of widespread local transmission in Bangladesh- the country which did not have a noteworthy health policy and legislative structures to combat COVID-19 like a pandemic. Early strategic planning and groundwork for evolving and established challenges are crucial to assemble resources and react in an appropriate timely manner. This article, therefore, focuses on the public perception of comparative lockdown scenario analysis and how they may affect the sustainable development and the strategic management regime of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh socioeconomically. Response from 159 respondents was collected via a purposive sampling survey method through a questionnaire, and 54 statements were collected for scenario analysis. Datasets were analyzed through a set of statistical techniques including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), hierarchical Cluster Analysis (CA), Pearson’s correlation matrix (PCM), Linear regression analysis (LRA), and psychometric characteristics were included in the Classical Test Theory (CTT) analysis. There were good associations among the lockdown scenarios and response strategies to be formulated. A strong significant positive relationship was observed between people who will start moving towards regular life and the formal and informal economic activities will be started in lockdown scenario 1(r=0.671, p<0.01). The scenario one describes how the death and infection rate will increase if Govt withdraw the partial lockdown before 40 to 50 days. Scenario 2 outlines people’s movement will enable low-level community transmission of COVID-19 with the infection and death rate will increase slowly (r=0.540, p<0.01). Moreover, there will be less supply of necessities of daily use with a price hike (r= 0.680, p<0.01). Scenario 3, full lock down will reduce the community transmission and death from COVID-19 (r=0.545, p<0.01). Moreover, along with the other problems gender discrimination and gender-based violence will increase rapidly (r=0.661, p<0.01). Form regression analysis, due to full lockdown, the formal and informal business, economy and education sector will be hampered severely (R=0.695), there was a strong association between the loss of livelihood and unemployment rate will increase due to business shutdown (p<0.01) and poor communities both in urban and rural areas will be affected severely (p<0.01).All these will further aggravate the humanitarian needs of the most vulnerable groups in the country in the coming months to be followed which needs to be dealt with proper response plans. It will undoubtedly affect the targets of global sustainable development goals (SDGs) of 2030 and all other development targets.

Consideration of climate change in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is a rather novel topic, which became partly mandatory through the revised EU Directive on EIA. Through a mixed-methods approach involving key-actors from EIA practice, decision making and climate adaptation planning, this study presents a transdisciplinary point of view on barriers and opportunities to tackle climate change adaptation in environmental assessment of large-scale projects. It is based on both a retrospective ex-post evaluation of existing practices in Austria and Germany as well as prescriptive examination and development of outcomes for practice through the development of a climate-fit toolkit that supports the incorporation of climate change impacts into EIAs. The scenario analysis applied with a back casting approach provided the opportunity to look beyond limitations related to legal compliance and partly lack of data identified by previous research. Three scenario narratives were elaborated based on nine key impact factors based on literature review, content analysis of EIA documents and interviews with EIA actors. The groups of actors carried out a prioritization of actions towards consideration of climate change in EIA. Finally, the actors were involved in co-production of an online tool-kit for Austrian and German EIA practice.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised numerous questions concerning the shape and range of state interventions whose goals are to reduce the number of infections and deaths. The lockdowns, which have become the most popular response worldwide, are assessed as being an outdated and economically inefficient way to fight the disease. However, in the absence of efficient cures and vaccines, there is a lack of viable alternatives. In this paper we assess the economic consequences of the epidemic prevention and control schemes that were introduced in order to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses report the results of epidemic simulations that were obtained using the agent-based modelling methods under the different response schemes and their use in order to provide conditional forecasts of the standard economic variables. The forecasts were obtained using the DSGE model with the labour market component.

The results reveal CILSS as the most accurate data set with a Kappa coefficient of 68% and an overall accuracy of 83%. CILSS data shows a decrease of savanna and forest whereas an increase of cropland over the period 1975 to 2013. The increase of cropland area of 30.97% from 1975 to 2013 can be related to the increase in population and their food demand, while the losses of forest area and the decrease of savanna are further amplified by using wood as energy sources and the lack of forest management. The three datasets were used to simulate future LULC changes using the Terrset Land Change Modeler. The validation of the model using CILSS data for 2013 showed a quality of 50.94%, it is only 40.04% for ESA and 20.13% for Globeland30. CILSS data was utilized to simulate the LULC distribution for the years 2020 and 2027 because of its satisfactory performances. The results show that a high spatial resolution is not a guarantee of high quality. The results of this study can be used for impact studies and to develop management strategies for mitigating negative effects of land use and land cover change.

The battery energy storage systems (BESS) are most promising solution for increasing efficiency and flexibility of distribution networks (DNs) with significant penetration level of photovoltaic (PV) systems. There are various issues related to the optimal operation of DNs with integrated PV sys-tems and BESS that need to be addressed to maximize DN performance. This paper deals with the day-ahead optimal active-reactive power dispatching in unbalanced DNs with integrated sin-gle-phase PV generation and BESSs. The objectives are the minimization of cost for electricity, en-ergy losses in the DN and voltage unbalance at three-phase load buses by optimal managing of active and reactive power flows. To solve this highly constrained nonlinear optimization problem, a hybrid particle swarm optimization with sigmoid-based acceleration coefficients (PSOS) and cha-otic gravitational search algorithm (CGSA), called PSOS-CGSA algorithm, is proposed. A scenario based approach encompassing the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method with the simultaneous backward reduction algorithm is used for the probabilistic assessment of the uncertainty of PV generation and power of loads. The effectiveness of the proposed procedure is evaluated through the series test cases in a modified IEEE 13-bus feeder.

The main target of this study was to evaluate the impact of future climate change on the available surface water resources in the Dhidhessa Sub-basin, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia. For the prediction, high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from multiple climate models with data from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) prepared by the CCAFS were used. The predictions of future discharge (stream flow) were based on climate scenarios data of baseline period of 1991 to 2020 and for the future with two time windows, 2044 (2030–2059) and 2084 (2070–2099), on a monthly time step after bias correction was conducted to both precipitation and temperature in the future climate under each RCP scenario. After sensitivity analysis, calibration (1994–2011), and validation (2012–2020) of the model for the Dhidhessa Sub-basin with the SUFI-2 program in the SWAT-CUP model, the SWAT model was used to determine water balance and stream flow from the SWAT model system. The SWAT model performed well in predicting stream flow in the Dhidhessa Sub-basins, with a coefficient of determination (R2) ranging from 0.8 to 0.94 and a Nash Sutcliffe value (NSE) ranging from 0.76 to 0.89. The percent decrease in mean annual stream flow from 2044 and 2084 were 10 %, in 2044, and 6.3% in 2084 respectively. The seasonal result under short-term 2044 of stream flow present change significantly decreased in spring, winter, and autumn with 20.2%, 67.4%, and 67.4% respectively. While summer season increased by 43.1%, under short-term 204. In long-term 2084 percent change declined except summer seasons, with 14.7%, 58.1%, and 3.3%, change in spring, winter, and autumn, respectively, and summer, with 51.1% increased and With RCP4.5 (1.64%) and RCP8.5 (2.1%) changed. In the future Dhidhessa stream flow increases and decreases from the baseline era. The decreasing stream flow in 2044 and 2084 will negatively affect agricultural production. This study revealed that any effect on this river resulting in a drop in flow will have a direct impact on ongoing water resource development and socio-economic development of the area.

In this paper, we consider a manufacturer who produces and sells a kind of innovative product in the monopoly market environment. Because the life cycle of innovative product is usually shorter than its procurement lead time, one unique demand quantity (scenario) will occur in the selling season, thus there is only one chance for the manufacturer to determine both optimal production quantity and optimal sale price. Considering this one-time feature of such a decision problem, a price-setting newsvendor model for innovative products is proposed. Different to the existing price-setting newsvendor models, the proposed models determine the optimal production quantity and sale price based on some specific state (scenario) which is most applicable for the manufacturer. The theoretical analysis provides managerial insights into the manufacturers’ behaviors in a monopoly market of an innovative product and several phenomena in the luxury goods market are well explained.

The connectivity level of last-generation vehicles is constantly on the rise. The combined use of Vehicle-To-Everything (V2X) connectivity and autonomous driving can provide remarkable benefits through the optimization of the route and speed trajectory. In this framework, this paper focuses on vehicle eco-driving optimization in a connected environment. The virtual test rig of a premium segment passenger car was used for generating the simulation scenarios. The benefits, in terms of energy and time savings, that the introduction of V2X communication, integrated with cloud computing, can have in a real-world scenario were assessed. The Reference Scenario is a pre-defined Real Driving Emissions (RDE) compliant route, while the simulation scenarios were generated by assuming two different penetration levels of V2X technologies. The associated energy minimization problem is formulated and solved by means of a global optimization algorithm, i.e., Dynamic Programming (DP). The optimization framework includes information coming from the surrounding environment, e.g., traffic lights state, speed limits, distance to travel, etc. The simulations show that introducing a smart infrastructure along with optimizing the vehicle speed in a real-world route can potentially reduce the required energy by 54% while shortening the travel time by 38%. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the bi-objective optimization cost function to find a set of Pareto optimal solutions, between energy and travel time minimization.

Molecular methods have revolutionised virtually every area of biology, and metazoan phylogenetics is no exception: molecular phylogenies, molecular clocks, comparative phylogenomics, and developmental genetics have collectively transformed our understanding of the evolutionary history of animals. Moreover, the diversity of methods and models within molecular phylogenetics has resulted in significant disagreement among molecular phylogenies as well as between these and traditional phylogenies. Here, I argue that tackling this multifaceted problem lies in integrating evidence to infer the best evolutionary scenario. I begin with an overview of recent developments in early metazoan phylogenetics, followed by a discussion of key conceptual issues in phylogenetics revolving around phylogenetic evidence and theory. I then argue that integration of different kinds of evidence is necessary for arriving at the best evolutionary scenario rather than the best-fitting cladogram. Finally, I discuss the prospects of this view in stimulating interdisciplinary cross-talk in early metazoan research and beyond.

The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (IEAL) is experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. This deforestation is at the root of many environmental disturbances in a region characterized by endemism in biodiversity. This article focuses on the triangulation of spatialized prospective scenarios in order to identify future trajectories based on the knowledge of historical dynamics through the diachronic analysis of three satellite images (2003-2010-2014-2016). The scenarios were de-signed in a supervised model implemented in the DINAMICA EGO platform. The three scenarios Business-As-Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth (REG) and Sustainable Management of the Environment (SME), extrapolating current trends, show that by 2061 this landscape will always be dominated forests (+ 84%). Old-growth forests occupy 74.2% of the landscape area in the BAU scenario, 81.4% in the SEM scenario and 61.2% in the REG scenario. The SEM scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of biodiversity priority habitats is still possible if policy makers become aware of it.

The risk related to embankment dam breaches needs to be evaluated in order to prepare emergency action plans. The physical and hydrodynamic parameters of the flood wave generated from dam-failure event correspond to various breach parameters such as width, slope and formation time. This study aimed to simulate dam-breach failure scenario of Yabous dam (NE Algeria) and analyze its influence on areas (urban and natural environments) downstream the dam. The simulation was completed using the sensitivity analysis method in order to assess the impact of breach parameters on the dam-break scenario. The propagation of flood wave associated to dam-break was simulated using the one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model. This study ap-plied a sensitivity analysis of three breach parameters (slope, width, and formation time) in five sites selected downstream the embankment dam. The simulation showed that the maximum flow of the flood wave recorded at the level of the breach was 8768 m3/s, which gradually attenuated along the river course to reach 1579.2m3/s at about 8.5km downstream the dam. This study estab-lished the map of flood-prone areas that illustrated zones threatened with the flooding wave trig-gered by the dam failure due to extreme rainfall events. The sensitivity analysis showed that flood wave flow, height and width revealed positive and similar changes for the increase in adjustments (±25% and ±50%) of breach width and slope in the 5 sites. However, flood wave parameters of breach formation time showed significant trends that changed in the opposite direction compared to breach slope and width.

In this article, Planck star and remnant scenario i.e., solution of black hole information paradox in loop quantum gravity (LQG) are elaborated. Since, Black hole is the final fate of collapse scenario in general relativity; firstly, gravitational collapse with two possible final outcomes i.e., black hole and naked singularity, is outlined. Thereafter, black hole thermodynamics along with four laws of black hole thermodynamics, Hawking radiation, brief introduction to information theory and cause of information paradox are given. Then, solution of black hole information paradox outside the LQG are briefly explained. Thereafter, basic concepts of LQG along with loop quantum cosmology (LQC) are described. LQG can solve information paradox by its natural cut off on the value of quantum volume operator. In LQG, a star namely, Planck star is also proposed that is formed at Planck density and resides at so-called singularity point. Since, LQG removes singularity through big bounce and proposes Planck star which provides enough room for information to escape; hence, it can solve information paradox. LQG predicts remnant of black hole of the order of \(10^{-14} m\); which, is under current technological regime. In the remnant scenario, black hole makes quantum transition into white hole and this white hole behaves as a long lived remnants that can solve information paradox. In this quantum transition, a black hole tunnels into a white hole at the end of evaporation.

Gas and power networks are tightly coupled and interact with each other due to physically interconnected facilities. In an integrated gas and power network, a contingency observed in one system may cause iterative cascading failures, resulting in network wide disruptions. Therefore, understanding the impacts of the interactions in both systems is crucial for governments, system operators, regulators and operational planners, particularly, to ensure security of supply for the overall energy system. Although simulation has been widely used in the assessment of gas systems as well as power systems, there is a significant gap in simulation models that are able to address the coupling of both systems. In this paper, a simulation framework that models and simulates the gas and power network in an integrated manner is proposed. The framework consist of a transient model for the gas system and a steady state model for the power system based on AC-Optimal Power Flow. The gas and power system model are coupled through an interface which uses the coupling equations to establish the data exchange and coordination between the individual models. The bidirectional interlink between both systems considered in this studies are the fuel gas offtake of gas fired power plants for power generation and the power supply to LNG terminals and electric drivers installed in gas compressor stations and underground gas storage facilities. The simulation framework is implemented into an innovative simulation tool named SAInt (Scenario Analysis Interface for Energy Systems) and the capabilities of the tool are demonstrated by performing a contingency analysis for a real world example. Results indicate how a disruption triggered in one system propagates to the other system and affects the operation of critical facilities. In addition, the studies show the importance of using transient gas models for security of supply studies instead of successions of steady state models, where the time evolution of the line pack is not captured correctly.

Cemented rock fill (CRF) is commonly used in cut-and-fill stoping operation in underground mining. This allows for the maximum recovery of ore. Backfilling can improve stope stability in underground workings, and then improve ground stability of the whole mine site. Backfilling step scenarios vary from site to site. This paper presents the investigation of five different backfilling step scenarios and their impacts on the stability of stopes at four different mining levels. A comprehensive comparison of displacements, major principal stress and stress concentration factor (SCF) was conducted. The results show that different backfilling step scenarios have little influence on the final displacement for displacement in the stopes. Among the five backfilling scenarios, the major principal stress and stress concentration factor (SCF) have almost the same final results. The backfilling scenario SCN-1 is the optimum option among these five backfilling scenarios. It can immediately prevent the increase of the displacement and reduce the sidewall stress concentration, thereby preventing possible failures. Using the same strength of CRF can achieve same effects among the four mining levels. Applying backfilling CRF of the same strength at different mining depths is acceptable and feasible to improve the stability of the stopes.

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for ecological models and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative ecological response models. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate-ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.

This paper is an attempt to forecast the potential application of Digital Twin in an industrial environment by adopting scenario analysis as part of technology monitoring. In recent years Digital Twin has become one of the most emerging topics in both the tech industry and academia. This field is the latest addition to industry 4.0. It has paved a great growth opportunity in the fields of Healthcare, manufacturing, and smart city areas. The Digital twin can be defined as mirroring the physical entities into a virtual environment where the status, health, and control of these entities can be monitored and controlled. It is a field where Artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things play a major role in the handshake between the two environments. In this paper we have done a thorough analysis to find out the possible future outcome of this technology in the manufacturing industry from the perspective of our fictious company. These scenarios expose various challenges and opportunities our organization may face in our future endeavour.