REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0135.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Cardiology Keywords: cardiovascular risk assessment; postmenopausal women; cardiovascular risk factors; emerging risk factors; hormone replacement therapy
Online: 8 June 2018 (12:46:31 CEST)
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rising rapidly among the postmenopausal woman but they are less likely to identify their risk by an appropriate risk assessment tool. This review evaluates available literature on cardiovascular risk assessment among postmenopausal women to provide a concise view of risk factors and disease burden among them, present risk assessment systems including their drawbacks, emergence of new risk factors and their role in risk prediction, and finally use of hormone replacement therapy during menopause. Results demonstrate that menopause is a transition point for developing CVD not due to physiological changes only but psychosocial factors like depression and marital stress are also responsible. Both conventional and emerging risk factors burden are high among postmenopausal women. Though data regarding CVD risk assessment among postmenopausal population is lacking but existing evidences claimed underestimation or overestimation of risk among women. Moreover application of different tools on same population has revealed significant variation in result. In this regard, recalibration of conventional tools with local data and new risk factors has showed improvement of risk prediction. Hormone replacement therapy during early menopause has reported beneficial to prevent CVD but in secondary prevention it has no role. All of these findings demand further studies on cardiovascular risk assessment, especially in developing countries where women after menopause are not in consideration of health strategy makers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0202.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Seismic vulnerability; Urban areas; Objective risk; Perceived risk
Online: 14 July 2022 (03:25:12 CEST)
The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific seismic improvement interventions and emergency management plans. Unappropriate seismic risk assessments may provide misleading results and induce bad decisions with relevant economic and social impact.The seismic risk in urban areas is mainly linked to three factors, namely, “hazard”, “exposure” and “vulnerability”. Hazard measures the potential of an earthquake to produce harm; exposure evaluates the amount of population exposed to harm; vulnerability represents the proneness of considered buildings to suffer damages in case of an earthquake. Estimates of such factors may not always coincide with the perceived risk of the resident population. The propensity to implement structural seismic improvement interventions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of buildings depends significantly on the perceived risk.This paper investigates on the difference between objective and perceived risk and highlights some critical issues. The aim of this study is to calibrate opportune policies, which allow addressing the most appropriate seismic risk mitigation options with reference to current levels of perceived risk. We propose the introduction of a Seismic Policy Prevention index (SPPi). This methodology is applied to a case-study focused on a densely populated district of the city of Catania (Italy).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0436.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Uncertainty; Climate risk assessment; Impact chain; Climate change; Risk; Tourism risk; Heat index
Online: 28 September 2022 (09:23:03 CEST)
The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0109.v2
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: Cyber risk; Internet of Things cyber risk; Digital Economy Risk Assessment; Economic Impact Assessment.
Online: 9 April 2019 (12:26:13 CEST)
We present an updated design process for adapting and integrating existing cyber risk assessment approaches for impact assessment for the risk from IoT to the digital economy. The new design process includes a set of changes to the original standards (e.g. NIST) that are adapted for the IoT cyber risk in this paper. This paper also presents a new framework for impact assessment of IoT cyber risk, specific for the digital economy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0132.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: fall risk assessment; risk of falling; force platforms; inertial sensors.
Online: 12 August 2016 (09:32:28 CEST)
Purpose: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recently published quality standards for assessment of fall risk and preventing further falls. According to the standards, multifactorial fall risk assessments should include: identification of falls history; analysis of gait, balance, mobility and muscle strength, among other factors. Despite being based on subjective analysis or simple timing and not being multifactorial, physiotherapists and physicians quite often use these tests as reference scales to differentiate between lower and higher risk of falling. Instrumented TUG has been recently reported to provide important additional information to the overall score. Objective: To explore a case-based approach of fall risk assessment to identify the most relevant and informative risk factors that in combination could better define a person risk profile. Materials and Methods: A multifactorial assessment of fall risk through questionnaires, standard functional tests, tests instrumented with inertial sensors, and force platforms has been studied within a group aged 55-80 years old. Different fall risk factors and fall risk assessment methods were analyzed in a case-based descriptive study. Results & Discussion: Subjects at higher risk of falling were identified based on their detailed profiles. A set of features were obtained from the instrumented standard tests differing significantly between subjects presenting higher or lower fall risk. Therefore, instrumenting conventional tests with wearables containing inertial sensors and force platforms gives more detailed and quantitative insights. This information can be used to better define and tailor fall prevention exercises and to improve the follow-up of the evolution of the subject.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0091.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: risk prediction; prediction models; risk of bias; PROBAST; melanoma
Online: 7 May 2022 (03:50:41 CEST)
Rising incidences of cutaneous melanoma have fueled the development of statistical models that predict the individual melanoma risk. Our aim was to assess the validity of published prediction models for incident cutaneous melanoma using a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We included studies that were identified by a recent systematic review and updated the literature search to ensure that our PROBAST rating included all relevant studies. Six reviewers assessed the risk of bias (ROB) for each study using the published “PROBAST Assessment Form” that consists of four domains and an overall rating of ROB. We further examined a temporal effect regarding changes in overall and domain-specific ROB rating distributions. Altogether 42 studies were assessed, of which a vast majority (n=34; 81%) was rated as having high ROB. Only one study was judged as having low ROB. The main reasons for high ROB ratings were the use of hospital controls in case-control studies and the omission of any validation of prediction models. However, our results of the temporal analysis showed a significant reduction in the number of studies with high ROB for the domain analysis. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0054.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: Risk assessment; Evidential reasoning; Fire/explosion
Online: 9 November 2016 (10:29:29 CET)
This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy, (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information, (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities, (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0261.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Business And Administrative Sciences Keywords: transnational oil investment, risk assessment, Fuzzy-Grey comprehensive evaluation, Delphi expert scoring system, risk factors, evaluation indicators system
Online: 20 April 2018 (09:11:15 CEST)
Oil has become the object of global exploits and fierce competition among the major world powers as it is a key strategic non-renewable resource. Transnational petroleum investment is therefore an important mechanism available to countries and international corporations to control oil resources even though there are numerous inherent uncertainties and risks. A new risk assessment index system is proposed in this paper based on use of the Delphi expert scoring system and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation that aims to minimize the potential risks inherent to multinational petroleum investment. This approach encapsulates political, legal, socioeconomic, and infrastructural factors to develop a technical method that can be used for transnational petroleum investment risk assessment. An evaluation of oil investment risk within a case study area is also presented; results provide reference data that can be applied by national and international oil companies to mitigate risks of transnational oil investment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201707.0042.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nursing & Health Studies Keywords: surgical smoke; volatile organic compounds (VOCs); health risk assessment (HRA); carcinogenic
Online: 17 July 2017 (07:40:18 CEST)
Surgical smoke is produced by energy-based surgical instruments. The airborne volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from surgical smoke may have potential health risk. This study aimed to evaluate the evidence for the harmful effects on the operating theater staff. An internationally recognized evaluation model of health risk assessment (HRA) was adapted to preliminarily assess the health risks caused by VOCs in surgical smoke. Results of HRA indicated that non-carcinogenic risk indexes of VOCs did not exceed one, indicating that these pollutants didn't cause significant non-carcinogenic harm to the health of the operating theater staff. But the cancer risk indexes exposed to formaldehyde and benzene all exceed 10-5, which was higher than the suggested value of USEPA (10-6) and might cause potential harm to the health of the operating theater staff. Long-term exposure of such surgical smoke will be harmful to the health of the operating theater staff and have a great risk of cancer.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0120.v2
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: water distribution; management; mechanical reliability; risk assessment
Online: 13 February 2018 (16:04:12 CET)
The management of existing water distribution system (WDS) is challenged by ageing of infrastructure, population growth, increasing of urbanization, climate change impacts and environmental pollution. Therefore, there is a need for integrated solutions that support decision makers to plan today, while taking into account the effect of these factors in the mid and long term. The paper is part of a more comprehensive project, where advanced hydraulic analysis for WDS is coupled with a dynamic resources input-output analysis model. The proposed modeling solution can be used to optimize the performance of a water supply system while considering also the energy consumption and consequently the environmental impacts. Therefore, as a support tool in the management of a water supply system also in the intervention planning. Here a possible application is presented for rehabilitation/replacement planning while maximizing the network mechanical reliability and minimizing risk of unsupplied demand and pressure deficit, under given economic constraints.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0166.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Risk, Security, Linear programming, Nasarawa Eggon and CSRA
Online: 13 December 2018 (09:45:41 CET)
This research work focused on the risks we are faced with on our day to day activities, either directly or indirectly, which can gradually accumulates and results to communal crisis, religious crisis, socio-economic agitations and tribal crises. Nasarawa Eggon Local Government Area of Nasarawa State was used as case study and a well structure close–ended questionnaire was used for data collection as it relates to Controlled Self Risk Assessment (CSRA) and linear programming technique was used to analyze. The results proved that many of this processes were neglected in these communities, making them to be prone to incessant communal crisis. The study recommend that Government should strongly, as a matter of urgency address the unemployment rate, distribution of political position, schools, primary health care and equip security personnel with the modern technology facilities, which happen to record the highest risk level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0215.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: street dust; PAHs; source evaluation; incremental lifetime cancer risk; cancer risk assessment; coastal city
Online: 10 October 2018 (10:49:21 CEST)
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in street dust pose a serious problem threatening both environment and human health. Street dust were collected from five different land use patterns (traffic areas TRA, urban area URA, residential areas REA, mixed residential commercial areas MCRA and suburban areas SUA) in a Saudi coastal city, Jeddah, and one in rural area (RUA) in Hada Al Sham. This study aimed to investigate the status, profile, sources of PAHs and estimate their human health risk. The results revealed an average concentration of total PAHs of 3320 ng/g in street dust of Jeddah and 223 ng/g in RUA dust. PAHs with high molecular weight represented 83.38% of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah, while the carcinogenic PAH compounds accounted 57.84%. The highest average concentration of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah was found in TRA (4980 ng/g) and the lowest in REA (1660 ng/g). PAHs ratios indicated that the principal source of PAHs in street dust of Jeddah is pyrogenic, mainly traffic emission. Benzo(a)anthracene/ chrysene (BaA/CHR) ratio suggests that PAHs in street dusts of Jeddah come mainly from emission of local sources, while PAHs in RUA might be transported from the surrounding urban areas. The estimated Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) associated with exposure to PAHs in street dusts indicated that both dermal contact and ingestion pathways are major contributed to cancer risk for both children and adults. Based on BaPequivalence concentrations of total PAHs, ILCRIngestion, ILCRdermal and cancer risk values for children and adults exposed to PAHs in street dust of different areas in Jeddah were found between 10−6 and 10−4, indicating potential risk. The sequence of cancer risk was TRA > URA > MCRA > SUA > REA. Only exposure to BaP and DBA compounds had potential risk for both children and adults.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0063.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: UAS; UAV; Risk assessment; SORA; disaster management
Online: 5 May 2021 (13:28:27 CEST)
Worldwide, there is a significant increase in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by emergency services. They offer a lot of possibilities during the rescue operation. Such a wide application for various purposes and environments causes many threats related to their use. To minimize the risks associated with conducting air operations with UAVs, the SORA methodology will be important. Due to its level of detail, it is a methodology adapted to civilian use. In this article, the authors' team will try to develop guidelines and directions for adapting SORA to the requirements of the operational work of emergency services. Thus following article aims to present the most important risks related to conducting operations with the use of UAVs by First Responders (FRs) and to show the sample risk analysis performed for this type of operation on the example of the ASSISTANCE project. The paper describes, on the one hand, possibilities offered by UAVs in crisis or disaster management and step-by-step Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) and on the other hand, presents possible threats, consequences and methods of their mitigation during FRs missions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0572.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: waterlogging; vulnerability; risk; participatory survey; GIS; Chattogram
Online: 27 January 2021 (16:48:08 CET)
In recent years, rainfall-induced waterlogging has become a common hazard in the highly urbanized coastal city of Chattogram, Bangladesh resulting in high magnitude of property damage and economic loss. Therefore, the primary objective of this research is to prepare a waterlogging inventory map and understand the spatial variation of the risk by means of hazard intensity, exposure, and vulnerability of waterlogging. In this research, the inventory map and factors influencing waterlogging hazard were determined from a participatory survey and other spatial data including land elevation, population, and structural data were collected from secondary sources. Analytical Hierarchy Process was applied to measure the hazard intensity and the exposure and vulnerability were estimated by overlaying the spatial data onto the hazard intensity map. A total of 58 locations in 22 wards have been identified as waterlogging affected, which covers ~8.42% of the city area. Obtained waterlogging vulnerability index map suggests that ward no. 5, 6, 16, 17, and 33 are greatly vulnerable to waterlogging in terms of their social, infrastructure, critical facilities, economic and environmental vulnerability. We show that ~2.71% of the study area is at very high risk, while the risk score is considerably higher for ward no. 5, 8, 17, 19, and 33.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0133.v2
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Urban flood; Decision making; Machine learning; Risk; Hazard; Vulnerability
Online: 1 March 2022 (10:18:57 CET)
Urban flood risk mapping is an important tool for the mitigation of flooding in view of human activities and climate change. Many developing countries, however, lack sufficiently detailed data to produce reliable risk maps with existing methods. Thus, improved methods are needed that can improve urban flood risk management in regions with scarce hydrological data. Given this, we estimated the flood risk map for Rasht City (Iran), applying a composition of decision-making and machine learning methods. Flood hazard maps were produced applying six state-of-the-art machine learning methods such as classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), boosted regression trees (BRT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and support vector machine (SVM). Flood conditioning parameters applied in modeling were elevation, slope angle, aspect, rainfall, distance to river (DTR), distance to streets (DTS), soil hydrological group (SHG), curve number (CN), distance to urban drainage (DTUD), urban drainage density (UDD), and land use. In total, 93 flood location points were collected from the regional water company of Gilan province combined with field surveys. We used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) decision-making tool for creating an urban flood vulnerability map, which is according to population density (PD), dwelling quality (DQ), household income (HI), distance to cultural heritage (DTCH), distance to medical centers and hospitals (DTMCH), and land use. Then, the urban flood risk map was derived according to flood vulnerability and flood hazard maps. Evaluation of models was performed using receiver-operator characteristic curve (ROC), accuracy, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and precision. The findings showed that the CART method is most accurate method (AUC = 0.947, accuracy = 0.892, POD = 0.867, FAR = 0.071, and precision = 0.929). The results also demonstrated that DTR, UDD, and DTUD played important roles in flood hazard modeling; whereas, the population density was the most significant parameter in vulnerability mapping. These findings indicated that machine learning methods can improve urban flood risk management significantly in regions with limited hydrological data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0040.v1
Subject: Engineering, Mechanical Engineering Keywords: machinery safety; risk assessment; effectiveness of the measures
Online: 1 December 2020 (17:36:15 CET)
Even though the rules for free movement of machinery within the European Union market have existed for more than 30 years, accidents related to their activities have constantly been achieving significant value. When designing the machine, a designer must stem from risk assessment, whereas all stages of its life cycle and ways of its use must be taken into consideration. In industrial operations, there is old machinery, which, although fulfilling its function reliably, the safety level is not in accordance with the developing requirements for their safe operation. The proposed methodology of assessment of the machinery safety condition comes out from the presupposition of the right application of steps of risk assessment and their reduction mainly by means of implementation of both effective and efficient preventive measures. The aim of the research applied in 3 operations, was to verify the method of machinery safety management. The created methodology based on 19 requirements for safety evaluates the level of the actual measures by means of the so-called criterion of current status and total efficiency of measures. Its output is the assessment of the efficiency level of implemented safety of each machine as well as of the whole operation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0120.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Sport Sciences & Therapy Keywords: mixed reality headset; mobility assessment; wearable sensor; fall risk; aging
Online: 10 April 2019 (08:33:16 CEST)
Functional mobility assessments (i.e., Timed Up and Go) are commonly used clinical tools for mobility and fall risk screening in the aging population. In this work, we proposed a new Mixed Reality (MR)-based assessment that utilized a Microsoft HoloLensTM headset to automatically lead and track the performance of functional mobility tests, and subsequently evaluated its validity in comparison with reference inertial sensors. Twenty-two healthy adults (10 older, 12 young) participated in this study. An automated functional mobility assessment app was developed based on the HoloLens platform. Mobility performance was recorded with the headset built-in sensor and validated with reference inertial sensor (Opal, APDM) taped on the headset and lower back. Results indicate vertical kinematic measures by HoloLens was in good agreement with the reference sensor (Normalized RMSE ~ 10%). Additionally, the HoloLens-based test completion time was in perfect agreement with clinical standard stopwatch measure. Overall, our preliminary investigation indicates that it is possible to use an MR headset to automatically guide users to complete common mobility tests with good measurement accuracy, thus it has great potential to provide objective and efficient sensor-based mobility assessment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0608.v1
Subject: Chemistry, Analytical Chemistry Keywords: Cape Verde; cereals; metals; dietary intake; risk evaluation
Online: 26 February 2021 (11:05:17 CET)
Cereals and their derivatives are the basis of human nutrition. However, cereals also contribute to the dietary exposure to toxic metals that may pose a risk. Strengthening food security and nutrition information is a high priority challenge for the Cape Verde Government. The toxic metals content (Cr, Ni, Sr, Al, Cd, Pb) has been determined in 126 samples of cereals and derivatives (rice, corn gofio, corn flour, wheat flour, corn, wheat) consumed in Cape Verde. Wheat flour samples stand out for registering the highest Sr (1.60 mg/kg), Ni (0.25 mg/kg) and Cr (0.13 mg/kg). The results show relevant Al levels (1.17 – 13.4 mg/kg) with its highest levels in corn gofio. The mean Pb average content in the cereals is 0.03 – 0.08 mg/kg with the highest level observed in corn gofio. The Al and Pb levels are lower in cereals without husks. A consumption of 100 g/day of corn gofio provide an intake of 1.34 mg Al/day (13.7% of the tolerable weekly intake established at 1 mg/kg bw/week) and 8 µg Pb/day (20% of the BMDL set at 0.63 µg/kg bw/day for nephrotoxic effects). The minimization of the dietary exposure of the Cape Verdean population to toxic metals is through the importation of higher quality cereals.
CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0208.v1
Subject: Engineering, Biomedical & Chemical Engineering Keywords: Beijing; surface water; organic pollution; health risk assessment
Online: 16 May 2019 (10:37:11 CEST)
The study of the distribution and health risk assessment is meaningful to provide basic data for environmental management．To investigate the pollution of potential toxic organics and their health risk to human beings, water samples were collected at 7 sites of main surface water of Beijing during wet and dry seasons respectively. The targeted 92 organics were detected, including phthalates (PAEs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and phenols. The results showed that: there were 56 organics detected out, and the number ratios of detected compounds to the total compounds of the same kind increased as the following: VOCs, phthalates, phenols, PAHs. 8 VOCs were detected in wet season, and 3 in dry season. The concentration of 2,2-Dichloropropane was highest as 10.62ug/L, while the concentrations of other VOCs were below 5ug/L; There were 11 phthalates detected during dry season. The content of Bis(2-methoxyethyl) phthalate was highest as 188.47ng/L; 17 phenols were found in samples during wet season, and the highest concentration was 1244.73ng/L for 4-nitrophenol; PAHs could be detected in all samples, and the detected compounds and the corresponding average concentrations were higher in wet seasons than those in dry seasons, which indicated that non-point pollution was possibly the main pollution source. The health risk assessment of the detected 56 pollutants by using a model from US EPA showed that, the risk caused by the four kinds of toxic organics in this study was in the acceptable ranges.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0172.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Climate Change; Coastal Disasters; Vulnerability; Disaster Risk.
Online: 21 March 2017 (16:41:53 CET)
This study integrated coastal-watershed models and combined a risk assessment method to develop a methodology to investigate the impact resulting from coastal disasters under climate change. The mid-western coast of Taiwan suffering from land subsidence was selected as the demonstrative area for the vulnerability analysis based on prediction of sea level rise (SLR), wave run-up, overtopping, and coastal flooding under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039. Database from tidal gauges and satellite images were used to analyze sea level rise using EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition). Extreme wave condition and storm surge were estimated by numerical simulation using WWM (Wind Wave Model) and POM (Princeton Ocean Model). Coastal inundation was then simulated via WASH123D watershed model. The risk map of study areas based on the analyses of vulnerability and disaster were established using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique. Predictions of sea level rise, the maximum wave condition and storm surge under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039 are presented. The results indicate that the sea level at the mid-western coast of Taiwan will rise in an average of 5.8 cm, equivalent to a rising velocity of 2.8 mm/year. The analysis indicates that Wuqi, Lukang, Mailiao, and Taixi townships are susceptive, low resistant and low resilient, and reaches the high risk level. The assessment provides that important information for making adaption policy in the mid-western coast of Taiwan.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0282.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: storm surge; coastal region; flooding risk; Rio Grande Valley
Online: 16 September 2021 (11:52:36 CEST)
(1) Background: Cameron County, which is located in the Rio Grande Valley, holds historical records for storm surges with noticeable property damage, fatalities, and injuries; (2) Methods: using storm surge hazard datasets from the National Oceanic and Atlantic Agency (NOAA), and American Community Survey (ACS) 2019 datasets and Geographic Information System (GIS), the study estimates at-risk population and their socio-demographic attributes; (4) Conclusions: Estimated water levels of a storm surge could be reached up to 5 feet in category 1 event, 9 feet in category 2, 17 feet in category 3, and above 20 feet in category 4 and 5. In the category 5 event, there is an estimated 37% (159,659) of the total county’s population (434,294) will be under flooded water. Suggestions are made to better prepare and successfully evaluate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0221.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: antibiotic residue; human health; milk; risk assessment; TLC; UHPLC
Online: 17 June 2020 (13:25:29 CEST)
Consumption of milk contaminated with antibiotic residues above the maximum residue limit (MRL) causes direct toxicity to humans and the development of superbugs that leads to the failure of antibiotic therapy and threatens human life. Besides, long-duration exposure might alter the nature of gut microflora results in the enhancement of many diseases. Therefore, we examined 300 raw and processed packet milk samples using thin layer chromatography (TLC) and ultra high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) method against five veterinary antibiotics and assessed the risk for consumers in Chattogram, Bangladesh. Risk analysis was calculated by using hazard quotient on the basis of 165 ml per capita milk consumption. We found a total of 7% prevalence of antibiotic residues in raw milk samples which were higher (8%) in individual samples than the pooled samples (4%). However, we did not find any processed packet milk samples as positive. The mean concentration of oxytetracycline residue was detected 61.29 µg/l and amoxicillin was 124 µg/l in individual milk samples. Risk analysis showed the hazard quotient values of 0.0056 for oxytetracycline and 0.0017 for amoxicillin residue which was confirmed that, no significant health risk associated with the consumption of milk produced and marketed in the study area. Our study might fill the gap of knowledge to measure the safety status of milk regarding public health issues.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0582.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: Assessment; echo; flood; rescue; risk; swiftwater; tool; srirac
Online: 23 November 2020 (13:43:21 CET)
Currently there is no multi-hazard risk assessment tool for determining the level of complexity to swiftwater and flood rescue incidents. Traditionally, the International Scale of River Difficulty is used but it is primarily for paddlers for use in a recreational context, without much consideration to the multitude of hazards faced in swiftwater and flood rescue environments. In response to this gap, the ECHO risk assessment tool has been developed and undergone initial testing. This tool provides for simple and rapid codification of multiple hazards and response considerations and is globally applicable. The tool also assigns a final risk assessment colour making the interpretation of the assessment easy to understand and communicate. Though the proposed tool shows potential, further research is needed before it should be operationalised.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0464.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Keywords: genetic algorithms; trajectory planning; keyhole neurosurgery; risk assessment; medical imaging
Online: 22 October 2018 (04:40:10 CEST)
Keyhole neurosurgery implies reaching a target area inside the brain through an entry point specified by the neurosurgeon. In order to avoid complications, a risk assessment procedure must be done to establish the minimum risk trajectory from the entry point to the target area. The neurosurgeon establishes the risk values for the brain structure according to the type of intervention. The preset brain structure risk value is used to assess the risk value for each voxel of the brain. This paper proposes an improved risk assessment methodology based on the sum of N maximum risk values for each voxel. Then, risk assessment for a trajectory is done by adding the risk of all voxels that are part of the path. The safest trajectory is defined as the trajectory with the lower risk. Our proposed search trajectory methodology includes a Genetic Algorithm (GA) for finding the safest trajectories. The use of a GA drastically reduces the number of trajectories to analyze, speeding up the planning procedure. The achieved results were qualified by expert neurosurgeons as satisfactory. Our proposed method allows neurosurgeons to calibrate the surgical planning system by allowing them to establish the risk brain structure and the risk value for each structure.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0478.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: Antarctica; coronavirus; COVID-19; mitigation measures; reverse zoonoses; risk assessment; SARS-CoV-2; wildlife
Online: 21 August 2020 (09:21:25 CEST)
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has spread rapidly to most parts of the world, causing high numbers of deaths and significant social and economic impacts. SARS-CoV-2 is a novel coronavirus with a suggested zoonotic origin and with the potential for cross-species transmission among animals. Antarctica can be considered the only continent free of SARS-CoV-2 although at the end of the 2019-2020 tourist season, at least one SARS-CoV-2 positive tourist visited the Antarctic Peninsula. Therefore, concerns have been expressed regarding the potential human introduction of this virus to the continent through the activities of research or tourism with potential effects including those related to human health, but also the potential for virus transmission to Antarctic wildlife. This reverse-zoonotic transmission risk to Antarctic wildlife is assessed considering the available information on host susceptibility, dynamics of the infection in humans, and contact interactions between humans and Antarctic wildlife. Measures to reduce the risk are proposed as well as the identification of knowledge gaps related to this issue.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0161.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Keywords: Navier-Stokes solver; multi-object tracking; collision risk assessment; road scenes
Online: 14 August 2019 (09:26:07 CEST)
Prediction of the likely evolution in the traffic scenes is a challenging task because of high uncertainty of sensing technology and dynamic environment. It leads to failure of planning for intelligent agents like autonomous vehicles. In this paper, we propose a fluid-based physical model to present the influence of surrounding object's motion on driving safety. In our pipeline, the input sensor could be LiDAR, camera, or multi-modal data. We use a Kalman filter to estimate the state space of each detected object, and adopt the properties of stable fluid to build a riskmap based on the density field. The noisy state space are then modeled as the boundary conditions in the simulation of advection and diffusion process. We test our approach on the public KITTI dataset and find this model could handle the short-term prediction in case of misdetection and tracking failure caused by object occlusion, which shows promising in collision risk assessment on road scenes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0291.v1
Subject: Engineering, Marine Engineering Keywords: coastal defense; risk maps; non-engineering measure; coastal vulnerability
Online: 19 June 2018 (10:41:27 CEST)
In this study, we used the natural and anthropogenic characteristics of a coastal region to generate risk maps showing vulnerability and potential hazards, and proposed design criteria for coastal defense and land use for the various kinds of risks faced. The Yunlin coast: a first-level protection area in mid-west Taiwan, was then used as an example to illustrate the proposed design criteria. The safety of the present coastal defenses and land use of the Yunlin coastal area was assessed, and coastal protection measures for hazard prevention were proposed based on the generated risk map. The results can be informative for future coastal management and the promotion of sustainable development of coastal zones.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0092.v1
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Other Keywords: Heavy metals; Risk assessment; Source analysis; Surface sediment; Qinjiang River
Online: 6 July 2022 (08:57:28 CEST)
Heavy metals are toxic, persistent and non-degradable. After sedimentation and adsorption, they accumulate in water sediments. The aim of this study was to understand the heavy metal pollution of Qinjiang River sediments on the ecological environment and apportioning sources. The mean total concentrations of Mn, Zn, Cr, Cu, and Pb are 3.14, 2.33, 1.39, 5.79, and 1.33 times higher than the background values, respectively, except for the Co, Ni, and Cd, which are lower than the background values; Fe, Co, Ni, Cd, Cr, Cu, and Pb are all primarily in the residual state, while Mn and Zn are primarily in the acid-soluble and oxidizable states, respectively. Igeo, RI, SQGs and RAC together indicate that the pollution status and ecological risk of heavy metals in Qinjiang River sediments are generally moderate; among them, Fe, Co, Ni, Cd, Cr, and Pb are not harmful to the ecological environment of the Qinjiang River. Cu is not readily released because of its higher residual composition, depicting that Cu is less harmful to the ecological environment. Mn and Zn, as the primary pollution factors of the Qinjiang River, are harmful to the ecological environment. This heavy metal pollution in surface sediments of the Qinjiang River primarily comes from manganese and zinc ore mining. Manganese carbonate and its weathered secondary manganese oxide are frequently associated with a significant amount of residual copper and Cd, as a higher pH is suitable for the deposition and enrichment of these heavy metals. Lead-zinc ore and its weathering products form organic compounds with residual Fe, Co, Cr, and Ni, and their content is related to salinity. The risk assessment results of heavy metals in sediments provide an important theoretical basis for the prevention and control of heavy metal pollution in Qinjiang River.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0075.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: arsenic; health risk assessment; hazard quotient; hazard index; trace metals
Online: 8 January 2019 (15:32:41 CET)
Groundwater plays a pivotal role as the largest potable water sources in Bangladesh. However, the quality of the groundwater faces challenges due to xenobiotic compounds in it. Excess amount of arsenic (As) has already been found in groundwater in many parts of Bangladesh. Thus, this study was conducted to assess the water quality and associated human health risk in central Bangladesh. A total of 99 groundwater samples from the central part of Bangladesh were analyzed to assess human health risk due to high level of nitrate (NO3-) and other trace elements i.e. arsenic (As), iron (Fe), and manganese (Mn). It was found that NO3- concentration (253.17 mg/L) in the groundwater samples exceeds the recommended guideline value by the WHO (50 mg/L). Moreover, this study area also characterized with elevated concentration of As (19.44 µg/L), Fe (811.35 µg/L), and Mn (455.18 µg/L) in the groundwater. Non-carcinogenic human health risk was calculated by justifying HQ (Hazard Quotient) and HI (Hazard Index) and attributed potential conjunctive human health risks due to NO3-, As, Fe and Mn in the study area. Moreover, high carcinogenic risk was found due to As contamination in the groundwater samples in the study area.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0080.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: Internet of Things; Micro Mart model; Goal-Oriented Approach; transformation roadmap; Cyber risk regulations; empirical analysis; cyber risk self-assessment; cyber risk target state
Online: 6 March 2019 (11:47:04 CET)
The Internet-of-Things (IoT) enables enterprises to obtain profits from data but triggers data protection questions and new types of cyber risk. Cyber risk regulations for the IoT however do not exist. The IoT risk is not included in the cyber security assessment standards, hence, often not visible to cyber security experts. This is concerning, because companies integrating IoT devices and services need to perform a self-assessment of its IoT cyber security posture. The outcome of such self-assessment needs to define a current and target state, prior to creating a transformation roadmap outlining tasks to achieve the stated target state. In this article, a comparative empirical analysis is performed of multiple cyber risk assessment approaches, to define a high-level potential target state for company integrating IoT devices and/or services. Defining a high-level potential target state represent is followed by a high-level transformation roadmap, describing how company can achieve their target state, based on their current state. The transformation roadmap is used to adapt IoT risk impact assessment with a Goal-Oriented Approach and the Internet of Things Micro Mart model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0014.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Microbiology Keywords: aflatoxin M1; milk; dairy products; risk assessment; children
Online: 1 November 2021 (12:26:43 CET)
The present study was conducted to estimate the exposure and risk characterization of the children population of Serbia to Aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) from milk and milk-based food. A total of 3404 samples comprising of milk and different milk-based food samples were collected from various regions of Serbia from 2017 to 2019. Evaluation of the AFM1 exposure was carried out using the deterministic method, whereas risk characterization was evaluated with the calculation of the Margin of Exposure (MOE) and the risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). Detection rates for AFM1 in milk and milk-based food samples ranged between 2% and 79%, with the highest incidence (79%) and mean level (22.34 0,018 ng kg-1) of AFM1 was detected in pasteurized and UHT milk. According to the three consumption estimates, the values of EDI were higher for toddlers as compared with children. Children aged 1–3 years had the highest risk of exposure to AFM1 in milk, with an estimated daily intake of 0.164 and 0.193 ng kg-1 bw day-1 using a lower bound (LB) and the upper bound (UB) exposure scenarios, respectively. Such difference could result from the higher consumption versus weight. Based on the EDI found in this study, the risk of AFM1 due to consumption of milk and milk-based food was low since MOE values obtained were 10000. In addition, the risk of HCC cases/year/105 individuals of different age groups showed that the value of HCC using potency estimates of 0.0017 (mean) was maximum (0.00034) in the age group 1–3 years which indicates no health risk for the evaluated groups. The present study revealed the importance of controlling and preventing AFM1 contamination in milk through continuous monitoring and regular inspection to reduce the risk of AFM1 exposure, especially in children.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0352.v1
Subject: Biology, Agricultural Sciences & Agronomy Keywords: climate change; wheat quality; risk assessment; irrigation; CERES-Wheat; yield
Online: 26 December 2019 (10:40:01 CET)
The effects of climate change on yield and quality for different climate regions had high uncertainty. Risk assessment is an effective measure to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts for decision-makers. The modified quality model was used to simulate integrated impacts of climate change, environment and management on wheat yield and quality. Then, the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was used to forecast the daily meteorological data, and Statistical Down Scaling Model was used for downscaling. CERES-Wheat was combined with the forecasted meteorological data to simulate the future wheat yield and grain protein concentration (GPC). The risk of wheat yield and quality in three climatic regions of Shaanxi combined with two climate change scenarios of CanESM2 were assessed. Temperature increased 0.22-3.34 °C and precipitation increased 10-60 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Elevated temperature and precipitation had positive effects on yield in all regions. The yield risk of most regions with climate change decreased 3.8%-25.1%. The GPC risk of all regions with climate change decreased 7.3%-27.2%. Irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, while had totally different effects for the three climatic regions. Yield risk with irrigation decreased 37.7%-52.1% in different climate. In contrast to previous studies, GPC risk with irrigation increased greatly 25.8%-28.9% in humid region, 3.9%-8.8% in sub-humid region, and decreased 37.7%-52.1% in semi-arid region. Climate change decreased yield risk and GPC risk together. While irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, had totally different effects for the three climatic regions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0378.v1
Subject: Chemistry, Analytical Chemistry Keywords: DON; corn; corn products; exposure; risk assessment
Online: 15 March 2021 (12:04:05 CET)
The study focused on investigating the natural incidence of deoxynivalenol (DON) in corn and products from corn producing districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The analysis was carried out using HPLC with UV detector and immunoaffinity cleanup columns. The detection limit (LOD) and limit of quantification were 25 and 50 µg/kg, respectively. Total 1220 samples of corn and products were analyzed to detect the DON, and 539 (44.2%) samples were observed to be contaminated with DON (n ≥ LOD). Furthermore, 92 (7.5%) samples of corn & products have DON levels, elevated than the proposed limits of the EU. The data is significantly different from a normal distribution for DON in corn and products samples and from different locations (p < 0.05) for Shapiro-Wilk and Kolmogorov-Smirnov values. However, a significant difference in DON levels was found between corn and corn derived-products types (p ≤ 0.05). The lowest and highest exposure & hazard quotient (HQ) of 0.92 and 9.68 µg/kg bw/d were documented in cornflour samples.
SHORT NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0032.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: Conformity assessment; lot inspection; acceptance sampling; Quality level; sample size; Bayesian statistics; prior distribution; posterior distribution; consumer risk; producer risk
Online: 2 June 2022 (10:59:47 CEST)
The ISO 2859 and ISO 3951 series provide acceptance sampling procedures for lot inspection, allowing both sample size and acceptance rule to be determined, starting from a specific value either for the consumer or producer risk. However, insufficient resources often make it difficult to implement “ISO sampling plans.” In cases where the sample size is determined by external constraints, the focus shifts from determining sample size to determining consumer and producer risks. Moreover, if the sample size is very low (e.g. one single item), prior information should be included in the statistical analysis. For this reason, it makes sense to work within a Bayesian theoretical framework, such as that described in JCGM 106. Accordingly, the approach from JCGM 106 is adopted and broadened so as to allow application to lot inspection. The discussion is based on a “real-life” example of lot inspection on the basis of a single item. Starting from simple assumptions, expressions for both the prior and posterior distributions are worked out, and it is shown how the concepts from JCGM 106 can be reinterpreted in the context of lot inspection. Conceptual differences regarding the definition of consumer and producer risks in JCGM 106 and in the ISO acceptance sampling standards are elucidated and a numerical example is provided.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0160.v1
Subject: Materials Science, General Materials Science Keywords: absorbent hygiene pad; diaper; feminine pad; risk assessment; safety; hazard; exposure; test method
Online: 8 October 2018 (16:26:55 CEST)
Disposable absorbent hygiene products have evolved for superior performance, enhancing the convenience of daily lives. Yet the use of disposable hygiene pads has brought safety concerns on chemical exposure, and significant efforts have been made to assess the potential risks associated with use of hygiene pads. This article intends to overview the safety assessment framework of diapers and feminine pads, which includes hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and postmarket risk management. Risk assessment of various constituents are reviewed for quantification methods and conservative estimation of exposure parameters. By reviewing the up-to-date considerations in risk assessment, we aim to provide insightful discussion on safety evaluation of current versions of disposable absorbent products. More clinical testing and postmarket surveillance are needed for continuous monitoring of potential health impacts of advanced products and constituents.
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: life extension; wind turbines; end-of-life issues; probabilistic modelling; economic optimization; fatigue; risk; remaining useful life
Online: 18 January 2021 (15:02:18 CET)
Reassessment of the fatigue life for wind turbines structural components is typically performed using deterministic methods with the same partial safety factors as used for the original design. However, in relation to life extension, the conditions are generally different from the assumptions used for calibration of partial safety factors; and using a deterministic assessment method with these partial safety factors might not lead to optimal decisions. In this paper, the deterministic assessment method is compared to probabilistic and risk-based approaches, and the economic feasibility is assessed for a case wind farm. Using the models also used for calibration of partial safety factors in IEC61400-1 ed. 4 it is found that the probabilistic assessment generally leads to longer additional fatigue life than the deterministic assessment method. The longer duration of the extended life can make life extension feasible in more situations. The risk-based model is applied to include the risk of failure directly in the economic feasibility assessment and it is found that the reliability can be much lower than the target for new turbines, without compromising the economic feasibility.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0468.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: temporary grandstand; lateral vibration experiment; vibration dose value; annoyance rate; human health risk
Online: 31 May 2018 (11:03:32 CEST)
Excessive vibration of temporary grandstand owing to crowd has lateral rhythmic motions can cause human in panic, which attracted increasing attention in recent years. This paper focuses on experiments that a temporary grandstand occupied 20 participants is oscillated by a shaking table with a series of random waves and induced by crowd with rhythmic swaying motions at lateral direction, respectively. And then a series of vibration perception questionnaires about crowd reaction are obtained. Evaluation of annoying level derives in concept of degree of membership and annoying rate method is proposed, then the human health risk of vibration serviceability of temporary grandstand is assessed with acceleration vibration dose value(VDV). From these results it is clear that standing crowd is more tolerant to vibration than seated crowd. The measured vibrations generated by crowd activities on temporary grandstand can cause panic in crowd. New relationship between the annoyance rate and structural acceleration VDV at logarithmic coordinate is proposed. The findings of this study can be utilized to manage the vibration of temporary grandstand and assess the human health risk.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0487.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: Twitter; data reliability; risk communication; data mining; Google Cloud Vision API
Online: 22 August 2020 (02:32:40 CEST)
While Twitter has been touted to provide up-to-date information about hazard events, the reliability of tweets is still a concern. Our previous publication extracted relevant tweets containing information about the 2013 Colorado flood event and its impacts. Using the relevant tweets, this research further examined the reliability (accuracy and trueness) of the tweets by examining the text and image content and comparing them to other publicly available data sources. Both manual identification of text information and automated (Google Cloud Vision API) extraction of images were implemented to balance accurate information verification and efficient processing time. The results showed that both the text and images contained useful information about damaged/flooded roads/street networks. This information will help emergency response coordination efforts and informed allocation of resources when enough tweets contain geocoordinates or locations/venue names. This research will help identify reliable crowdsourced risk information to enable near-real time emergency response through better use of crowdsourced risk communication platforms.
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: environmental risk assessment; polycyclic musk compounds; acute toxicity; growth inhibition; larvae development
Online: 11 February 2021 (13:23:39 CET)
The current research investigated the environmental risk of the polycyclic musk compounds, Galaxolide® (HHCB) and Tonalide® (AHTN), in the marine environments. These substances are lipophilic, bioaccumulated and potentially biomagnified in aquatic organisms. To understand the toxicity of HHCB and AHTN, we performed acute toxicity tests by exposing marine microalgae (Phaeodactylum tricornutum, Tretraselmis chuii and Isochrysis galbana), crustaceans (Artemia franciscana), echinoderms (Paracentrotus lividus), bivalves (Mytilus galloprovincialis), fish (Sparus aurata) and a candidate freshwater microalga (Raphidocelis subcapitata) to environmentally relevant concentrations (0.005 - 5 µg/L) following standardized protocols. The effects of both substances on microalgae growth were incipient and only I. galbana was sensitive to HHCB and AHTN, with IC10 values of 5.22 µg/L and 0.328 µg/L, respectively. Significant (p < 0.01) concentration dependent responses were measured in P. lividus and M. galloprovincialis larvae developments as well as S. aurata mortality tested with HHCB. The effect of HHCB on P. lividus larvae development was the most sensitive endpoint recorded, producing an EC50 value of 4.07 µg/L. Our results show that HHCB represents a high risk to P. lividus larvae development for early life stages in marine environments.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201707.0067.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: spatial analysis; risk taking; preparedness of local population; the City of Abhar
Online: 24 July 2017 (12:40:30 CEST)
Understanding the vulnerability of areas and the likelihood of specific disasters, particularly earthquakes, is one of the most important issues in Iran. One of the major concerns in Iran is the resilience of rural communities. The present study is devoted to spatial analysis of risk in rural areas and the evaluation of preparedness in the rural districts of the city of Abhar. In particular, this study evaluates the resilience to earthquakes. The research was conducted in two parts in which the first part has used the VIKOR Multiple criteria decision making model as well as the employment of this model in the ArcGis. The second part of the study used field studies, in the form of questionnaires, to evaluate the readiness of the local population against the risks of earthquakes. Four indicators, individual, physical, economic abilities and access, were assessed. The population included rural districts, where statistical samples were villagers. Results of the spatial analysis indicated that 15 villages are in the high-risk areas, 24 villages were in the medium-risk areas and all other villages were in low-risk areas. In terms of readiness of the locals, the results indicated a lack of planning with regards to the four mentioned indicators.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0133.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: Radiation risk analysis, GIS based model, thermal power plant, surface radiation, remedial measures
Online: 11 December 2018 (13:57:09 CET)
Coal combustion in thermal power plants releases ash. Ash is reported to cause different adverse health hazards in humans and other organisms. Owing to the presence of radionuclides, it is also considered as a potential radiation hazard. In this study, based on the surface radiation measurements and relevant ancillary data, expected radiation risk zones were identified with regard to the human population residing near the Thermal Power Plant. With population density as the risk determining criteria, about 20% of the study area was at ‘High’ risk and another 20% of the study area was at ‘Low’ risk zone. The remaining 60% was under medium risk zone. Based on the findings remedial measures which may be adopted have been suggested.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0015.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical & Electronic Engineering Keywords: distributed generators; risk assessment; distribution systems; developed PEM-based method; optimal power flow algorithm
Online: 4 January 2017 (07:31:09 CET)
the intermittency and variability of these permeated Distributed Generators (DGs) could critically cause many security and economy risks to distribution systems. This paper applied a certain mathematical distribution to imitate the output variability and uncertainty of DGs. And then, four risk indices EENS, PLC, EFLC and SI were established to reflect the system risk level of distribution system. For the certain mathematical distribution of the DGs' output power, a developed PEM (point estimate method)-based method was proposed to calculate these four system risk indices. In this developed PEM-based method, enumeration method was used to list the states of distribution systems, an improved PEM was presented to deal with the uncertainties of DGs and the value of load curtailment in distribution systems was calculated by an optimal power flow algorithm. Finally, the effectiveness and advantages of this proposed PEM-based method for distribution system assessment were verified by the tests of a modified IEEE 30-bus system. Simulation results have shown that this proposed PEM-based method has a high computational accuracy and highly reduced computational costs compared with other risk assessment methods and is very effective for risk assessments.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0099.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Organizational Economics & Management Keywords: Economic risk assessment, capital-based framework, six-capital framework, climate response, climate adaptation, urban resilience
Online: 2 March 2021 (15:47:00 CET)
Estimating the economic risks of climate shocks and climate stressors on spatially heterogeneous cities over time remain highly challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical methodology to assess the economic risks of climate change in developing cities to inform spatially sensitive municipal climate response strategies. Building on a capital-based framework (CBF), spatially disaggregated baseline and future scenario scores for economic wealth and its exposure to climate change are developed for six different classes of capital and across 77 major suburbs in Cape Town, South Africa. Capital-at-risk was calculated by combining relative exposure and capital scores across different scenarios and with population impacted plotted against the major suburbs and the city’s 8 main planning districts. The economic risk assessment presented here provides a generic approach to assist investment planning and the implementation of adaptation options through an enhanced understanding of relative levels of capital endowment vis-à-vis relative levels of exposure to climate-related hazards over time. An informed climate response strategy in spatially heterogeneous cities need to include spatially sensitive estimates on capital-at-risk and populations disproportionally impacted by climate exposure over time. The economic risk assessment approach presented here helps in advancing to such a goal.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0202.v1
Subject: Biology, Agricultural Sciences & Agronomy Keywords: groundwater salinization; soil salinization; salinization risk assessment; climate analysis; water balance; salinity balance; salt leaching; processing tomato; crop yield decrease.
Online: 11 September 2018 (15:29:31 CEST)
Mediterranean climate is marked by arid climate conditions in summer, therefore, crop irrigation is crucial to sustain plant growth and productivity in this season. If groundwater is utilized for irrigation, an impressive water pumping is needed to satisfy crop water requirements at catchment scale. Consequently, irrigation water quality gets worse, specifically considering groundwater salinization near the coastal areas due to seawater intrusion, also triggering soil salinization. With reference to an agricultural coastal area in the Mediterranean basin (Southern Italy), close to the Adriatic sea, an assessment of soil salinization risk due to processing tomato cultivation was carried out. A simulation model was arranged to perform, on daily basis, a water and salt balance along the soil profile. Long-term weather data and soil physical parameters representative of the considered area were utilized in applying the model, also considering three salinity levels of irrigation water. Based on the climatic analysis performed and the model outputs, the probability of soil salinity came out very high, such as to seriously threaten tomato yield. Autumn-winter rainfall resulted frequently insufficient to leach excess salts away from the soil profile and reach sustainable conditions of tomato cultivation. Therefore, alternative cropping strategies were prospected.
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: complex aquifer; karst; hydrogeology; groundwater pollution risk map; integrative approach; water resources management; Syria
Online: 16 March 2021 (09:17:51 CET)
As for most Mediterranean countries, groundwater is the main resource for irrigation and drinking supply in most parts of Syria, however this resource suffers from mismanagement. In the study area (Northeast of Mt. Hermon), the lack of information makes water management in this area extremely difficult. Assessing groundwater pollution risk is the most essential issue for water resources management, especially in the regions where complex interaction between climate, geology, geomorphology, hydrogeology, water scarcity and water resource mismanagement exist. This complexity leads to significant complication in determining pollution risk of studied system. In the present work, we adopted an Integrative Approach to assess groundwater pollution risk in the study area. This methodology is based on the analysis of hydrogeological characteristic of aquifer system and the available information about socio-economic context and physio-chemical groundwater condition that might affect this system. This approach allowed us to delineate the groundwater pollution risk map based on the analysis of concerning parameters/ indicators. The degree of risk was assessed based as the sum and average of rating of these parameters and indicators for each subarea. Typically, very high pollution risk index was identified over the Quaternary/Neogene horizon, i.e shallow and unconfined aquifer and in the lower part of Jurassic aquifer. In these two parts, the majority of anthropogenic activities are concentrated. Low pollution risk index was found for the outcropping of low permeable Quaternary basalt at the Southern part of the study area. A moderate pollution index was identified for the low/moderate permeability of silt, clay and marly limestone rich horizons of the major part of Neogene aquifer outside of the intersected zones with Quaternary aquifer and for the Paleogene formations. The spatial analysis shows that about 50% of the study area is characterized as being at very high and high pollution risk index. Hence, the overall natural protective capacity of this area is still poor. This study demonstrates the flexibility of the proposed approach to assess groundwater pollution risk in local complex aquifer system characterized by lack of information and data in order to reduce the risk of future groundwater pollution.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0087.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: building damage; climate change scenarios; decision tree analysis; limit value; natural disaster; random forest; risk assessment process; South Korea
Online: 12 February 2018 (11:13:37 CET)
Changes in extreme weather patterns are expected under climate change. In this study, a risk assessment was conducted using 4 building damage history datasets and 33 weather datasets (precipitation, wind speed, snow, and temperature) from 230 regions in South Korea to quantitatively analyze and predict building damage caused by potential future natural disasters. Decision tree analysis was used to evaluate building damage risk in 230 regions. The decision tree model to determine the risk of flood, gale, and typhoon was generated, which excluded gales, with less damage. The weight (variable importance) and limit value (damage limit) of the weather variables ware derived using the decision tree model. Using these two factors, we assessed the building damage risk in 230 regions in South Korea until 2100. The number of regions at risk of flood damage increased by more than 30% in average. Conversely, regions at risk of snowfall damage decreased by more than 90%. The regions at risk of typhoons decreased by 57.5% on average, and the number of regions at high risk of typhoon damage increased by up to 62.5% in RCP 8.5. These results can be used as objective data to minimize future building damage throughout South Korea, representing the first step towards sustainable development in the region with respect to disaster response.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0571.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: air-conditioned filer dust; indoor environment; heavy metal; biological contaminants; risk assessment
Online: 26 August 2020 (09:08:24 CEST)
Among others, road traffic, industrial emissions, commercial activities, smoking and cooking are considered as major contributing factors for the increasing levels of pollutants in atmosphere. High levels of potentially toxic metals and microbes in atmosphere, especially in indoor air, may pose serious threat to human health. Therefore, concentration and associated health risks of potentially toxic trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn) and their risk to human health, and microbial load in indoor air was assessed using air condition (AC) filter dust samples collected from 5 locations representing residential, agricultural and industrial settings of Eastern Province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The levels of trace metals varied considerably among sampling areas, with the highest levels of Cr and Cd recorded in the Industrial-area sites followed by the Agricultural and Urban-Residential sites. The highest levels of Pb and Fe were found in the Agricultural area sites followed by the Industrial and Urban-Residential area sites. The metals in dust sample, especially Cd, Cr and Pb, showed a considerable health risk through dermal pathway. Among the sites, the highest hazard quotient for these metals was found for Al-Qatif-Industrial areas sites and among the metals it was the highest for Cd. The cancer risk from the metals contained in AC filter dust was negligible. Samples collected from Agricultural and Industrial area sites were substantially contaminated with bacteria and fungi, respectively. Bacterial contaminants were mostly Gram Negative, with considerable antibiotic resistance and haemolytic activity. Thus, indoor air quality as assessed by AC filter dust depicted that a considerable health risk could be posed by the trace heavy metals and microorganisms for a long-term exposure. Furthermore, this study demonstrated that AC filters dust could be a unique and reliable test sample for the assessment of indoor environment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0679.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical & Electronic Engineering Keywords: component lifetime models; Monte Carlo simulation; network reliability; overloading violations; preventive maintenance; risk assessment; time-varying failure rates
Online: 30 July 2021 (09:10:01 CEST)
Electricity distribution network operators face several operational constraints in the provision of safe and reliable power given that investments for network area reinforcement must be commensurate with improvements in network reliability. This paper provides an integrated approach for assessing the impact of different operational constraints on distribution network reliability by incorporating component lifetime models, time-varying component failure rates as well as the monetary cost of customer interruptions in an all-inclusive probabilistic methodology that applies a time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. A test distribution network based on the Roy Billinton test system is modelled to investigate the system performance when overloading limits are exceeded as well as when preventive maintenance is performed. Standard reliability indices measuring the frequency and duration of interruptions, and the energy not supplied are complemented with a novel monetary reliability index. The comprehensive assessment includes not only average indices but also their probability distributions to adequately describe the risk of customer interruptions. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of this holistic approach as the impacts of operational decisions are assessed from both reliability and monetary perspectives. This informs network planning decisions through optimum investments and consideration of customer outage costs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0110.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: best practice; crop mapping; crowdsourcing; drought risk assessment; exposure; flood risk assessment; geospatial data; spaceborne remote sensing; unsupervised classification; rule-based classification
Online: 17 December 2017 (08:26:29 CET)
Cash crops are agricultural crops intended to be sold for profit as opposed to subsistence crops, meant to support the producer, or to support livestock. Since cash crops are intended for future sale, they translate into large financial value when considered on a wide geographical scale, so their production directly involves financial risk. At a national level, extreme weather events including destructive rain or hail, as well as drought, can have a significant impact on the overall economic balance. It is thus important to map such crops in order to set up insurance and mitigation strategies. Using locally generated data -such as municipality-level records of crop seeding- for mapping purposes implies facing a series of issues like data availability, quality, homogeneity etc. We thus opted for a different approach relying on global datasets. Global datasets ensure homogeneity and availability of data, although sometimes at the expense of precision and accuracy. A typical global approach makes use of spaceborne remote sensing, for which different land cover classification strategies are available in literature at different levels of cost and accuracy. We selected the optimal strategy in the perspective of a global processing chain. Thanks to a specifically developed strategy for fusing unsupervised classification results with environmental constraints and other geospatial inputs including ground-based data, we managed to obtain good classification results despite the constraints placed. The overall production process was composed using ``good-enough" algorithms at each step, ensuring that the precision, accuracy, and data-hunger of each algorithm was commensurate to the precision, accuracy, and amount of data available. This paper describes the tailored strategy developed on the occasion as a cooperation among different groups with diverse backgrounds, a strategy which is believed to be profitably reusable in other, similar contexts. The paper presents the problem, the constraints and the adopted solutions; it then summarizes the main findings including that efforts and costs can be saved on the side of Earth Observation data processing when additional ground-based data are available to support the mapping task.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0152.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Urban road dust, Functional areas, Heavy metals, Pollution assessment, Health risk assessment, Jeddah
Online: 23 November 2017 (10:20:50 CET)
Data dealing with the assessment of heavy metal pollution in road dusts in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and its implication to human health risk of human exposure to heavy metals, are scarce. Road dusts were collected from five different functional areas (traffic areas TA, parking areas PA, residential areas RA, mixed residential commercial areas MCRA and suburban areas SA) in Jeddah and one in rural area (RUA) in Hada Al Sham. We aimed to measure the pollution levels of heavy metals and estimate their health risk of human exposure applying risk assessment models described by USEPA. Using geo-accumulation index (Igeo), the pollution level of heavy metals in urban road dusts was in the following order Cd > As > Pb > Zn > Cu > Ni > Cr > V > Mn > Co > Fe. Urban road dust was found to be moderately to heavily contaminated with As, Pb and Zn, and heavily to extremely contaminated with Cd. Calculation of enrichment factor (EF) revealed that heavy metals in TA had the highest values compared to that of the other functional areas. Cd, As, Pb, Zn and Cu were severely enriched, while Mn, V, Co, Ni and Cr were moderately enriched. Fe was consider as a natural element and consequently excluded. The concentrations of heavy metals in road dusts of functional areas were in the following order: TA > PA > MCRA > SA > RA > RUA. The study revealed that both children and adults in all studied areas having health quotient (HQ) < 1 are at negligible non-carcinogenic risk. The only exception was for children exposed to As in TA. They had an ingestion health quotient (HQing) 1.18 and a health index (HI) 1.19. The most prominent exposure route was ingestion. The cancer risk for children and adults from exposure to Pb, Cd, Co, Ni, and Cr was found to be negligible (< 1 x 10-6).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0590.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Environment; ·Comprehensive treatmen; ·public-private partnerships (PPP); ·Full life cycle; ·Risk assessmen; ·Principal component analysis (PCA)
Online: 28 January 2021 (15:39:03 CET)
China's implementation of public-private partnerships projects has been quite effective, involving infrastructure and other livelihood projects, a total of 19 industries, and an investment of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan. The characteristics of PPP projects such as long construction period and large investment amount determine the risks of PPP projects are also great, and the PPP projects of comprehensive environmental governance are also the same. The government and social capital use the PPP model to cooperate, and use the principal component analysis method to assess the risks of the entire life cycle of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project. Therefore, it plays an important role in ensuring the smooth implementation of projects and reducing the losses caused by risks. According to the risk factors of the whole life cycle of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project, an indicator system of 5 first-level indicators, 18 second-level indicators, and 43 third-level indicators has been established. Principal component analysis is used to analyze the influence weight of risk factors at each stage. The analysis shows that among the four stages, environmental pollution risk, project approval delay risk, completion risk, interest rate and financial fluctuation risk, and franchise life risk are the most influential risks in the implementation of PPP projects. Therefore, suggestions are made through the risk factors of each stage in the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project. For example, strengthen the response to the external environment risks of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project, standardize the bidding and procurement of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project, and strengthen the subsequent management of the transfer of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project. In this way, the ability to resist risks of comprehensive environmental governance PPP projects is improved; the smooth implementation of the project is guaranteed, and the long-term development of comprehensive environmental governance PPP projects is promoted.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0068.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Source separation system; Greywater treatment; Water reuse; Hydroponic system; Green wall; Heavy metals bioaccumulation; QMRA; Health risk assessment
Online: 8 May 2017 (17:39:16 CEST)
The scarcity and pollution of freshwater are extremely crucial issues today and the expansion of water reuse have been considered as an option to reduce its impact. This study aims to assess the efficiency of an integrated greywater treatment system and hydroponic lettuce production as a part of a green wall structure and to evaluate the health risk associated with the production and consumption of lettuce through quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and chemical health risk assessment. The study was conducted based on the unique configuration of source separation system; on-site greywater treatment system; green wall structure as a polishing step; and hydroponic lettuce production in the green wall structure. The final effluent from the system was used to grow three lettuce varieties by adding urine as a nutrient solution. Both water samples and plant biomass were collected and tested for E. coli and heavy metals contamination. The system has gained a cumulative 5.1 log10 reduction of E. coli in the final effluent and no E. coli found in the plant biomass. QMRA results indicated that the system attained the health-based targets, 10–6 DALYs per person per year. Similarly, health risk index (HRI) and targeted hazard quotient (THQ) results did not exceed the permissible level, thus the chemical health risk concern was insignificant.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0379.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: heat stress; farm animal; pig; livestock; global warming; climate change; risk assessment; economic impact
Online: 15 December 2020 (12:35:35 CET)
In the last decades farm animals kept in confined and mechanically ventilated livestock buildings are increasingly confronted with heat stress (HS) due to global warming. These adverse conditions cause a depression of animal health and welfare and a reduction of the performance up to an increase of the mortality. To facilitate sound management decisions, livestock farmers need relevant arguments, which quantify the expected economic risk and the corresponding uncertainty. The economic risk was determined for the pig fattening sector based on the probability of HS and the calculated decrease in the gross margin. The model calculation for confined livestock buildings showed, that HS indices calculated by easily available meteorological parameters can be used for assessment quantification of indoor HS, which is so far difficult to determine. These weather-related HS indices can be applied not only for an economic risk assessment but also for a weather-index based insurance for livestock farms. Based on the temporal trend between 1981 and 2017, a simple model was derived to assess the likelihood of HS for 2020 and 2030. Due to global warming, the return period for a 90-percentile HS index is reduced from 10 years in 2020 to 3-4 years in 2030. The economic impact of HS on livestock farms was calculated by the relationship between an HS index based on the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the reduction of the gross margin. From the likelihood of the HS and this economic impact function, the probability of the economic risk could be determined. The reduction of the gross margin for a 10 year return period was determined for 1980 with 0.27 € per year and animal place and increased by the 20-fold to 5.13 € per year and animal place in 2030.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0184.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: health assessment; landing gear retraction and extension hydraulic system; improved risk coefficient; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; fault simulation; maintenance manual
Online: 20 April 2022 (04:52:38 CEST)
The health of the landing gear retraction and extension hydraulic system may be assessed using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), however the traditional FCE method depends solely on human assessment by specialists, which is excessively subjective. To address the issue of excessive human subjective variables in the assessment, an improved FCE model based on enhanced risk coefficient is provided, which includes four consideration indexes: failure probability, failure severity, failure detection difficulty, and failure repair difficulty. To reduce subjective human judgment errors entirely due to expert experience, the improved FCE takes into account the likelihood of failure using a statistical method, the severity of failure using a fault simulation analysis based on the LMS Imagine.Lab AMESim simulation platform, and the difficulty of fault detection and repair using the aircraft manufacturer's professional maintenance information. As part of the evaluation model, the range of health assessment values and accompanying treatment methods are included, making it easier to implement on a daily basis in aircraft maintenance. As a final step, the simulation is evaluated and the simulated faults are calculated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0195.v1
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Clinical Psychology Keywords: Thai START; Forensic psychiatric inpatients; Confirmatory factor analysis with ordinal data; Violence risk assessment; forensic psychology; Psychometrics
Online: 13 January 2022 (15:57:05 CET)
The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is deemed the most appropriate instrument for assessing violence risks and management because of its balanced approach between dynamic risk and protective factors. Although several facets of reliability and predictive validity of this tool were strong, its inter-rater reliability, construct validity, and implementation in Asian population were under-investigated. The objective of this research was to examine the inter-rater reliability and construct validity of the START: Thai version within forensic psychiatric inpatients. The participants consisted of 118 forensic psychiatric inpatients hospitalized at Galya Rajanagarindra Institute in Thailand. Trained mental health professionals (i.e., psychiatrists, forensic nurses, clinical psychologists, social workers, and occupational therapists) assessed each participant across twenty domains of the Thai START. The inter-rater reliability was examined using the intraclass correlation coefficient and a confirmatory factor analysis for ordinal data was used to test the construct validity of the scale. The main finding showed a good-to-excellent inter-rater reliability and supported two relational constructs (i.e., strength vs vulnerability subscales) of the Thai START. The Thai START is a promising tool for using in Thai forensic psychiatric setting but some items were not significant in contributing to the scale. This study also provides the guideline for implementing the tool in non-Western forensic psychiatric populations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0486.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Oceanography Keywords: marine renewable energy; ocean energy; wave energy; environmental effects; wave modeling; wave propagation; numerical modeling; sediment dynamics; risk assessment
Online: 29 June 2018 (13:09:23 CEST)
Wave energy converter (WEC) arrays deployed in coastal regions may create physical disturbances potentially resulting in environmental stresses. Presently, limited information is available on the nature of these physical disturbance or the resultant effects. A quantitative Spatial Environmental Assessment Tool (SEAT) for evaluating potential effects of wave energy converter (WEC) arrays on nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport is presented for the central Oregon coast (USA) through coupled numerical model simulations of an array of WECs. Derived climatological wave conditions were used as inputs to the model to allow for the calculation of risk metrics associated with various hydrodynamic and sediment transport variables such as maximum shear stress, bottom velocity, and change in bed elevation. The risk maps provided simple, quantitative, and spatially-resolved means of evaluating physical changes in the vicinity of a hypothetical WEC array in response to varying wave conditions. Near-field risk of sediment mobility was determined to be moderate in the lee of the densely spaced array, where the potential for increased sediment deposition could result in benthic habitat alteration. Modifications to the nearshore sediment deposition and erosion patterns were observed near headlands and topographic features, which could have implications for littoral sediment transport. The results illustrate the benefits of a risk evaluation tool for facilitating coastal resource management at early market marine renewable energy sites.
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Cardiology Keywords: cardiovascular disease; heavy metals; cooper; zinc; manganese; cobalt; iron; health risk assessment
Online: 9 June 2020 (03:25:06 CEST)
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) constitute the first cause of death among the population of developing and developed countries. Atherosclerosis, which is a disorder with multifactorial etiopathogenesis, underlies most CVDs. The available literature includes ample research studies on the influence of classic cardiovascular (CV) risk factors. However, environmental exposure to heavy metals, among other substances, is still an unappreciated risk factor of CVDs. This study aimed to assess the concentration of some heavy metals (copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), manganese (Mn), cobalt (Co), and iron (Fe)) in the blood serum of postmyocardial infarction (post-MI) patients and patients free from myocardial infarction (MI) as well as estimate the relationship between the occurrence of MI and increased concentration of heavy metals. The concentration of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Mn, Co, and Fe) was assessed using the inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry technique in a group of 146 respondents divided into two groups: post-MI group (study group (SG), n = 74) and group without cardiovascular event (CVE) having a low CV risk (control group (CG), n = 72). The concentration of the analyzed heavy metals was higher in SG. All the heavy metals showed a significant diagnostic value (p < 0.001). The highest value of area under the curve (AUC) was observed for manganese (Mn) (0.955; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.922–0.988), while the lowest value was found for zinc (Zn) (0.691; 95% CI = 0.599–0.782). In one-dimensional models, high concentrations of each of the analyzed heavy metals significantly increased the chances of having MI from 7-fold (Cu) to 128-fold (Mn). All the models containing a particular metal showed a significant and high discrimination value for MI occurrence (AUC 0.72–0.92). Higher concentrations of Cu, Zn, Mn, Co, and Fe were found to considerably increase the chances of having MI. Considering the increasingly higher environmental exposure to heavy metals in recent times, their concentrations can be distinguished as a potential risk factor of CVDs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0410.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: social representations; natural hazard risk; Alpine hazards; risk communication; risk management; qualitative risk research;
Online: 16 November 2018 (13:35:01 CET)
The term “risk” is connoted with divergent meanings in natural hazard risk research and the practice of risk management. Whilst the technical definition is accurately defined, in practice, the term “risk” is often synonymously used with “danger”. Considering this divergence as a deficiency, risk communication often aims to correct laypersons’ understanding. We suggest in reference to Breakwell (2001) to treat the variety of meanings as a resource for risk communication strategies instead. However, there is no investigation so far, of what laypersons’ meanings of risk actually comprise. To address this gap, we examine the meanings of risk applying a social representations approach (Moscovici, 2001) in a qualitative case study design. Results of the study among inhabitants of Swiss mountain villages show that differences in meanings were found according to hazard experience and community size. We found commonly shared core representations, and single peripheral ones. We conclude with suggestions on how to make usage of the knowledge on SR in risk communication.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0128.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: large scale systems; risk assessment; risk management techniques; risk mitigation
Online: 10 December 2019 (07:14:12 CET)
Risk assessment management have been a hot topic for the researchers since a very long time. Software risk management is an important part of project management as it contains the identification, analysis, estimation and monitoring of different risks present in the system. This helps developers in decision making while assessing the problems that could arise in the software systems. Risk management is very complex in large scale system as these systems have very complex development. The paper describes risk management techniques for large scale system. Furthermore we have provided a detailed comparative analysis of these techniques with commonly identified risks in software systems and have provided a systematic order for risk management process to ensure risk mitigation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0551.v1
Subject: Biology, Ecology Keywords: Risk analysis, risk assessment, biological invasions, regulations, policy, risk management
Online: 22 November 2018 (14:44:57 CET)
This report presents a framework for analysing the risk of alien taxa under South Africa's National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act of 2004, and the Alien and Invasive Species Regulations of 2014. While the report was initially designed to meet a specific South Africa need, the risk analysis processes developed can, we believe, be transferred to any specified geographic region. In outlining a series of questions related to a taxon’s likelihood of invasion and the consequences thereof, i.e. the potential impacts, the report provides a structure for collating data relevant to the process of listing taxa as well as a process for developing recommendations that is both mathematically sound, transparent, and that explicitly takes uncertainty into account. The framework is based on collating information according to international standards in biological invasions (specifically the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification of Alien Taxa Scheme, the CBD's scheme for classifying invasion pathways, and the Unified Framework for Biological Invasions proposed by Blackburn et al. 2011). The risk analysis framework is currently being implemented in South Africa in an effort to underpin national regulatory lists of invasive species.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0030.v1
Subject: Arts & Humanities, Architecture And Design Keywords: green building; risk management; risk factors, risk mitigation measures; architect
Online: 2 May 2018 (16:55:58 CEST)
The number of green buildings has increased to address the global environmental crisis. However, green buildings face risks resulting from new materials and methods. In addition, these buildings are expected to perform at higher levels than traditional ones. The objectives of this study are to identify the possible risk factors for architects developing green building projects in South Korea and to assess risk mitigation measures. To attain this goal, fourteen risk factors and twelve mitigation measures were identified from a comprehensive literature review. A questionnaire survey was administered to architects practicing green building design. Findings revealed the ‘adoption of new technology and processes’ was the largest difference between green and traditional building projects. This study identified ‘financial risk,’ ‘design changes,’ and ‘client’s goal uncertainty’ as the top three risk factors in green building design. Additionally, the survey proposed the four most effective risk mitigation measures for green building projects: (1) ‘contract indicating each party’s roles, liabilities and limitations clearly’; (2) ‘utilizing integrated design process’; (3) ‘understanding client’s goal in green building projects’; and (4) ‘improving communication and coordination among stakeholders.’ There are a few studies focusing on the architects’ perceived risk concerning green building projects; however, this study expands the knowledge and fills the literature gap. Additionally, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of critical risks and mitigation measures that can benefit South Korea’s green building design practice through better risk management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0104.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: cyber risk; Internet of Things; cyber risk impact assessment; cyber risk estimation; cyber risk insurance
Online: 8 March 2019 (08:50:49 CET)
In this paper we present an understanding of cyber risks in the Internet of Things (IoT), we explain why it is important to understand what IoT cyber risks are and how we can use risk assessment and risk management approaches to deal with these challenges. We introduce the most effective ways of doing Risk assessment and Risk Management of IoT risk. As part of our research, we also developed methodologies to assess and manage risk in this emerging environment. This paper will take you through our research and we will explain: what we mean by the IoT; what we mean by risk and risk in the IoT; why risk assessment and risk management are important; the IoT risk management for incident response and recovery; what open questions on IoT risk assessment and risk management remain.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0119.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: Stress Testing; Credit Risk; Credit Risk Testing; Evaluation of Credit Risk; Credit Risk Management; Organizational Management
Online: 7 October 2021 (13:44:12 CEST)
The stress testing methodology should be implemented and applied to the entity's overall financial system at least annually, and if the organization operates in a volatile economy, it should be performed at least twice a year. Finally, managers should include regular training and development sessions for relevant employees of their organization to be fully informed and more informed and informed, considering the evolving science, theory and practicality of a discrete range of stress testing mechanisms that can be appropriately applied to overall financial framework and system of multiple financial institutions and banks. In addition, stress testing is essentially a methodology that collects and analyzes certain future macro-prudential and micro-prudential economic drivers and indicators, the primary purpose of which is to assess the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a financial institution, bank, organization, credit institution or economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically targeted and incorporated into a paper that substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance of the feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0346.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: environmental health; risk communication; risk management; particulate matter; risk analysis; mass event
Online: 27 April 2018 (05:15:54 CEST)
Atmospheric pollution arising from diesel-powered engines can result in acute and chronic diseases of the respiratory and cardiovascular systems. The annual carnival festival that takes place in the city of Salvador, Bahia-Brazil, is a large-scale event that gathers approximately 2 m revelers and 170,000 workers who accompany dozens of sound-trucks, or trios elétricos, for a period of seven days. These slow-moving sound-trucks run on diesel fuel, constantly exposing those around them to exhaust fumes. The present study aimed to evaluate air quality along the approximately 10km-long carnival parade circuit and determine possible impacts on human health. We applied a three-phase risk analysis strategy from 2007–2009: 1) hazard identification, 2) risk characterization and 3) risk management. Our quantification of atmospheric particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations revealed variable levels of PM2.5 ranging from 19 µg/m3 to 580 µg/m3, with peaks of up to 800 μg/m3 at sound-truck concentration areas. We then assessed the effects of air pollution on human health using ophthalmologic parameters obtained from 28 carnival volunteers, who often presented symptoms of eye irritation. Finally, we established strategies to communicate the study’s objectives and obtained results to the population through media outlets and open discussions with government agencies. According to our risk analysis, carnival sound-trucks represent the main source of atmospheric PM2.5 and NO2 pollution during the annual 7-day carnival festival. As a consequence of our research, the municipal government of Salvador issued an addendum to its carnival legislation mandating organizers to monitor atmospheric pollution, and, subsequently, all large-scale public events. Municipal government authorities have also promoted a shift from petroleum-based diesel fuel to biodiesel, a less-polluting fuel, for all adapted carnival sound-trucks. Our approach, which employed easily accessible and inexpensive methodology, provided substantial scientific evidence to support improvements in the regulation of air quality during large-scale public events held in the city of Salvador.Keywords: environmental
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0041.v3
Subject: Social Sciences, Business And Administrative Sciences Keywords: uncertainty management; risk management; safety; ISO 31000:2009; ISO 31010:2009; risk management framework; risk-sentience; safety culture; risk culture; enterprise risk management
Online: 19 June 2018 (12:58:28 CEST)
The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0134.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: risk; resilience; pandemic; prioritization; risk management; Arctic
Online: 4 June 2021 (10:40:38 CEST)
The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalised yet remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored, Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk – nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic – with a sustainability categorisation of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies which prioritise health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge concerning the genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0422.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: transformation; flood risk reduction; Jakarta; risk governance
Online: 29 May 2018 (09:32:27 CEST)
Jakarta belongs to the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge and increasingly sea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta’s flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing risk reduction and adaption measures is therefore of utmost importance. Against the background, the paper draws on a discourse analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformative from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city’s flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard will intensify in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planning – particularly with regards to the accepted level of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0017.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: beam-column joint; fibre-based section modeling; joint shear hinge; substandard beam-column joints; stiffness and strength deterioration; reinforced concrete; seismic vulnerability; risk
Online: 4 October 2022 (10:38:02 CEST)
The paper discusses how joint damage and deterioration affect the seismic response of existing reinforced concrete frames with sub-standard beam-column joints. The available simplified modeling techniques are critically reviewed to propose a robust, yet computationally efficient technique for simulating the nonlinear behavior of substandard beam-column joints. Improvements over the existing models include simulation of the cyclic deterioration of joint stiffness and strength as well as pinching in the hysteretic response, implemented considering a deteriorating hysteretic rule. A fibre-section forced-based inelastic beam-column element is developed; considering improved material models and fixed-end rotation due to bond failure, rebars-slip and inelastic extension, to simulate the deteriorating cyclic behavior of existing pre-cracked beam-column members. For the assessment of frames with substandard exterior beam-column joints, a nonlinear model for the exterior joint is developed and validated through a full-scale quasi-static cyclic test performed on a substandard T-joint connection. The proposed model allows considering structural performance in risk assessment while accounting for true inelastic mechanisms at the joints.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0109.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Organizational Economics & Management Keywords: Information Technology, Risk Primary Market, Secondary Market Risk, Non-Financial Risks, Risk Management
Online: 11 January 2019 (10:45:25 CET)
The aim of this study was to determine the impact of information technology in management of risks in the capital market-listed company is in Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of the present study is an applied descriptive approach. The target population for the survey, companies that from 2009 to the first half of 2015 have been a member of the Tehran Stock Exchange, through Cochranʼs sample size of 140 companies, respectively. We used cluster sampling method. In order to collect data from two questionnaires: risk management questionnaire Foakeh (2013) has 38 items and a standard questionnaire Chanvyas (2006) has 40 items, the whole five-item Likert scale questionnaire is above has been used. Data gathered through the questionnaire, sign the application was 21spss. For inferential analysis of the variables and to analyze the data from different statistical tests and regression was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed that information technology on risk management and its dimensions (primary market risk, market risk and the risk of secondary non-financial) impact.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0332.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: social risk; risk management; urban renewal; collectivism; China
Online: 18 August 2022 (07:41:22 CEST)
Social sustainability is the major concern of planners and local officials when urban renewal projects are being conducted. Extreme individualism can potentially cause conflicts of interest, making urban renewal in Western cities fraught with various types of social risks. As a country with deep-rooted socialist tradition, urban renewal projects in China are influenced by collectivist culture and show different features from those of the West. The objective of this research is to investigate how different stakeholders in urban redevelopment projects, including local residents, social organizations, the local state, and developers, interact with each other and how the associated social risks are hedged against. Using a recent well-known project in the city of Guangzhou, the authors attempt to present the latest progress in social risk management in China. With the support from a government-sponsored project, the authors have conducted a questionnaire-based survey and year-long follow-up fieldwork. Using ATLAS.ti software, we found that that “residents’ demand”, “status of collaboration”, and “degree of trust” are the keys to risk management. The results of an ordered probit model show that residents are worried about the overall planning, the relocation timetable, and whether their personal needs are taken into account. It is also indicated that the timely disclosure of project information, high-quality public participation, and a reasonable compensation plan can possibly boost the support rate. The authors suggest that utilizing China’s collectivist culture could be an effective way to mitigate social risks, and residents’ personal interests should also be respected.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0169.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: asset allocation; risk factor; risk exposure; macro-factor
Online: 12 May 2022 (10:44:13 CEST)
Since financial institutions faced to fatal scenario like subprime mortgage crisis and COVID-19, the factor-based asset allocation methodology is noticed. Asset-only approach which make to consider restrictive risk volatility as individual assets had limitation of macro factor risk. For instance, an institution which allocated assets by asset-only approach cannot deal with the inflation crisis. We review the problem of the traditional modern portfolio approach that is used by Korean financial institutions. For reasonable investment of institution, we notice improved factor-based allocation approach. The first result of this paper is that Mean-variance approach as considered only return of asset recorded lower performance than multi factor-based portfolio in macro factor crisis. Second, we notice allocation model which can minimize probability passing the liability risk exposed macro factors to investment risk exposed macro factors. There are three steps in multi-macro factor-based asset allocation approach: discovering macro factors and mapping asset classes to individual macro factor. Second, define liability account and mapping as considering income and pay out of institution. Third, minimize correlation of fac-tor-based asset risk with liability volatility. Furthermore, using covariance return of assets to allocate makes Pareto improvement and supports to break Home-bias problems.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0218.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geology Keywords: risk perception; geo-hydrological risk; education; Southern Italy
Online: 26 March 2018 (14:17:57 CEST)
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of disastrous events in the world, but several disparities in population vulnerability are being registered. One of the causes of these variances is different public risk perception also due to the degree of education and knowledge of the population. In this study, some of the results obtained in a risk perception survey are presented. The survey was carried out in an area of Calabria (Southern Italy) hit by geo-hydrological events that have occurred in recent years with damage to roads, tourism facilities and private houses. A statistical interpretation of the results highlights the importance of education and knowledge to risk perception on the part of the population investigated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201708.0047.v2
Subject: Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: cancer risk; risk assessment; volcanic soils; Santiago Island
Online: 14 August 2017 (09:11:20 CEST)
The hazard and the carcinogenic risks due to the exposure to some potentially toxic elements by the Santiago Island (Cape Verde) population where calculated, considering soil ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact as exposure pathways. The topsoil of Santiago Island is enriched in Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn, Mn and Cd to upper crust values. Hazard indices (HI) were calculated for these metals and As exposures, of Santiago Island population and the calculations were performed for children and adults. For children HI are higher than 1 for Co, Cr and Mn. So there is indication of potential non-carcinogenic risk for children, due to the high Co (HI=2.995), Cr (HI=1.329) and Mn (HI=1.126), values in soils. For the other elements and for adults there is no potential non-carcinogenic risk. Cancer risk was calculated for As, Cd, Cr and Ni exposures, for adults and children and the results are always lower than the carcinogenic target risk of 1x10-6, for As, Cd, and Ni. However, cancer risk are higher than the carcinogenic target risk for Cr, for adults. Regarding As, for children the fraction due to Riskingestion represents 51.6%, while Riskinhalation represents 48.0% and Riskdermalcontact represents only 0.4% of total risk. For adults Riskinhalation represents 81.3%, Riskingestion represents 16.6% and Riskdermal contact represents 2.1%. These results reflect the higher daily ingestion dose for children and the higher inhalation rate and higher dermal contact surface for adults. For the other elements and for adults the cancer risk due to Cr, Ni and Cd inhalation is always higher than for children, reflecting the higher inhalation rate for adults.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0110.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: IoT Cyber Risk, IoT risk analysis, IoT cyber insurance, IoT MicroMort, Cyber Value-at-Risk
Online: 8 March 2019 (15:24:59 CET)
This paper is focused on mapping the current evolution of Internet of Things (IoT) and its associated cyber risks for the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) sector. We report the results of a qualitative empirical study that correlates academic literature with 14 - I4.0 frameworks and initiatives. We apply the grounded theory approach to synthesise the findings from our literature review, to compare the cyber security frameworks and cyber security quantitative impact assessment models, with the world leading I4.0 technological trends. From the findings, we build a new impact assessment model of IoT cyber risk in Industry 4.0. We therefore advance the efforts of integrating standards and governance into Industry 4.0 and offer a better understanding of economics impact assessment models for I4.0.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0132.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: risk perception; coronavirus; covid-19; risk communication; global health
Online: 7 May 2020 (15:12:32 CEST)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the foundations of public health governance all over the world. Researchers are challenged by informing and supporting authorities on acquired knowledge and practical implications. This commentary applies established theories of risk perception research to COVID-19 and reflects on the role of risk perceptions in these unprecedented times. Moreover, it calls for utilizing the knowledge on risk perception to improve health risk communication, build trust and contribute to a collaborating governance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0020.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: longevity risk; s-forwards; pricing; risk margin; solvency II
Online: 1 May 2017 (11:39:12 CEST)
Longevity risk constitutes an important risk factor for life insurance companies and it can be managed through longevity-linked securities. The market of longevity-linked securities is at present far from being complete and does not allow to find a unique pricing measure. We propose a method to estimate the maximum market price of longevity risk depending on the risk margin implicit within the calculation of the technical provisions as defined by Solvency II. The maximum price of longevity risk is determined for a survivor forward (S-forward), an agreement between two counterparties to exchange at maturity a fixed survival-dependent payment for a payment depending on the realized survival of a given cohort of individuals. The maximum prices determined for the S-forwards can be used to price other longevity-linked securities, such as q-forwards. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd model is used to represent the evolution of mortality over time, that combined with the information on the risk margin, enables us to calculate upper limits for the risk-adjusted survival probabilities, the market price of longevity risk and the S-forward prices. Numerical results can be extended for the pricing of other longevity-linked securities.
Subject: Keywords: Mitigation; Risk Reduction; Global Catastrophic Biological Risk; Epidemics; Disease X; Literature Review; Pandemics; Value of Information; Existential Risk
Online: 28 February 2020 (12:32:33 CET)
There are potentially promising mitigation activities for epidemic and pandemic scenarios that are not currently the subject of significant research effort. Large epidemics and pandemics pose risks that are important to mitigate, even if the likelihood of the events is low and uncertain. While some efforts are the subject of extensive funding and consideration, other approaches are neglected. Here, we consider such neglected interventions which could significantly reduce the impact of such an epidemic or large-scale pandemic. These are identified via a narrative literature review of extant literature reviews and overviews of mitigations in epidemic and pandemic situations, followed by consideration of the economic value of information of further study of heretofore neglected interventions and approaches.Based on that analysis, we considered several classes of mitigations, and conducted more exploratory reviews of each. Those discussed include mitigations for (1) reducing transmission, such as personal protective equipment and encouraging improved hygiene, (2) reducing exposure by changing norms and targeted changes for high-risk or critical professions and activities, (3) reducing impact for those infected, and (4) increasing large scale resilience using disaster and infrastructure continuity planning.Some proposed mitigations are found to be of low marginal value. Other mitigations are likely to be valuable, but the concepts or applications are underdeveloped. In those cases, further research, resources, or preparation are valuable for mitigating both routine and extreme disease outbreak events. Still more areas of research are identified as having uncertain value based on specific but resolvable uncertainties. In both of the latter cases, there is no guarantee that mitigations identified as worthy of further consideration will be valuable, but the argument for further research is clear.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0011.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: Global risk factors; Credit Default Swaps; Sovereign credit risk; Copulas approach
Online: 1 November 2021 (11:50:02 CET)
This study examined the tail dependency structure of sovereign credit risk and three global risk factors in BRICS countries using copulas approach, which is known for its ability to provide the “true” tail correlation based on the correct marginal distribution. The empirical results show that global market risk sentiment comoves with sovereign CDS spreads across BRICS countries under extreme market events, with Brazil having the highest co-dependency followed by China, Russia, and South Africa. Furthermore, oil price volatility is the second biggest risk factor correlated with sovereign CDS spreads for Brazil and South Africa while exchange rate risk exhibits very small co-dependence with sovereign CDS spreads under extreme market conditions dominated by tail events. On the contrary, exchange rate risk is the second largest risk factor co-moving with China and Russia’s sovereign CDS spreads while oil price volatility exhibits the lowest co-dependence to CDS in these countries. Between oil price and currency risk, evidence of single risk factor dominance is found for Russia where exchange rate risk is largely dominant. These results suggest that BRICS policymakers might consider financial sector regulations that mitigate risks spill-over such as targeted capital controls when markets are distressed.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0066.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: cyber physical systems; cybercrime; risk mitigation; risk management; industrial control systems
Online: 5 April 2018 (06:10:06 CEST)
Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) is the integration of computation and physical process that makes a complete system such as the physical components, networked systems, embedded computers and software and linking together of devices and sensors for information sharing. Cyber Physical Systems are Smart Systems that comprises of the merging and integration of Industry Control Systems, Critical Infrastructures, Internet of Things (IoT) and Embedded Systems. Major industries such as the Chemical and Industrial Plants, Aviation Systems, National Grid, the Stock Exchange, Military Systems, and others depends heavily on these Cyber Physical Systems for financial and economic growth. The benefits of CPS nationally and globally are in the areas of Manufacturing, Energy, Transport, Healthcare and Communication. Cyber Physical Systems incorporates Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements on network infrastructures to provide interactive systems. However, these three key components the Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements may have inherent threats and vulnerabilities on them that may run the risk of being compromise, exploited, attacked or hacked. Cybercriminals in their quest to bring down these systems and may cause disruption of services either for fame, revenge, political motive, economic war, cyber terrorism and cyber war. The study seeks to review the risks that are associated with these three key components Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements. The study considered four main risk mitigation goals for this purpose, and these are Business Value, Organizational Requirements, Threat Agent and Impact based on the review results. We used Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) to determine the relative importance of these goals that contributes to developing cybercrime and rich in CPS. For the results, the prioritized goals are then used to assess the risks using a semi-quantitative approach to determine the net threat level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0035.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: inflation risk; investment returns; life annuity; longevity risk; post-retirement benefits
Online: 7 December 2016 (10:27:23 CET)
Building a social security system to ensure Singapore residents have peace of mind in funding for retirement has been at the top of Singapore Government’s policy agenda over the last decade. Implementation of the Lifelong Income For the Elderly (LIFE) scheme in 2009 clearly shows that the government spares no effort in improving its pension scheme to boost its residents’ income after retirement. Despite the recent modifications to the LIFE scheme, Singapore residents must still choose between two plans: the Standard and Basic plans. To enhance the flexibility of the LIFE scheme while maintaining its simplicity, we propose some plan modifications such that scheme members do not face a dichotomy of plan choices. Instead, they select two age parameters: the Payout Age and the Life-annuity Age. This paper provides an actuarial framework for determining members’ payouts and bequests based on the proposed age parameters. We analyze the net cash receipts and internal rate of return (IRR) for various plan-parameter configurations. This information helps members make their plan choices. To address cost-of-living increases we propose to extend the plan to accommodate an annual step-up of monthly payouts. By deferring the Payout Age from 65 to 68, members can enjoy an annual increase of about 2% of the payouts for the same first-year monthly benefits.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201609.0028.v2
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: VOC; technological risk; exposure to risks; DRI; risk mapping; SIG; BTEX
Online: 13 September 2016 (03:42:52 CEST)
The population’s mobility in urban areas is a necessary variable in the modeling of risk scenarios caused by atmospheric contamination. The inclusion of this concept makes static models more dynamic while considering people within a city to be an entity with complex mobility processes. We propose a conceptual and methodological tool to make the representation of the social, economic and territorial components, as well as the patterns in the population´s mobility to delimitate risk areas for human health by exposure of contaminants. In the volatile organic compounds (VOC), benzene, ethylbenzene, toluene and xylene (BTEX) are amongst the most dominant substances in fugitive vapor emissions in gas stations (GS). In urban areas, the exposure to BTEX by residential proximity and proximity to other facilities, which cause intra-urban agglomeration, can impact and affect human health. This model seeks to facilitate the focalization, identification and prioritization of risk areas by BTEX environmental contamination. This article goes beyond de conceptual framework. It suggests methodological and instrumental aspects to be applied in other cities. The government agencies must consider these results when establishing rules, permissions and procedures to reduce environmental pollution for managing the risk in a complex urban environment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0197.v1
Subject: Engineering, Construction Keywords: construction; safety; risk; hazard; critical control risk management; critical control; fatality prevention
Online: 13 July 2022 (09:18:21 CEST)
Across the global construction industry, fatalities continue to occur from high-risk activities where the risk controls have been defined, however were unreliable. In the mining industry, Critical Control Risk Management has provided positive results in reducing major accidents, which raises the question, could the Critical Control approach reduce the fatality rate in the construction industry? This study analysed 10 years of serious and fatal incident investigation reports from four international construction companies to i) assess the reliability of their Critical Controls (CCs) and ii) assess the factors which affect the reliability of CCs. The results show the reliability of CCs, measured by implementation and effectiveness, averaged just 42%. Human performance factors including risk identification, decision-making and competency together with supervision, job planning, communication organisational factors were identified as affecting the reliability of CCs. The study used bow-tie diagrams with real event data to find the actual CC effectiveness. This gave actionable findings directly related to individual CCs enabling the participating organization to focus resources on improving specific verification processes. The results confirm the applicability of CCs for the Major Accident Event hazards analyzed and highlights further review is required of the factors which need to be considered when implementing a CC program. This paper details our methodology and results, to assist others apply CCs as a risk management tool.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0023.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: perturbation expansion; Green’s function; model risk; model uncertainty; credit derivatives; CVA; correlation risk
Online: 4 January 2018 (03:24:24 CET)
We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0071.v1
Online: 6 January 2022 (10:35:42 CET)
The paper is an investigation on the impact of financial markets on the volatility of green bonds credit risk component, measured by the option-adjusted spread/swap curve (OAS) of the Global Bloomberg Barclays MSCI Green Bond Index, for both the non and pandemic periods. For these purpose, after observing the dynamic joint correlations between all the variables through a DCC-GARCH, we adopt GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models, putting the OAS as dependent variable. Our main results show that the conditional variance parameters are significant and persistent in both times, testifying the overall impact of the other markets on the OAS. In more detail, we highlight that the gamma in the two EGARCH models is positive: so the “green” credit risk volatility is more sensitive to positive shocks than negative ones. With reference to the conditional mean, we note that if during the non pandemic time only the stock market is significant, during the pandemic also conventional bonds and gold are impacting. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study that analyzes the specific credit risk component of green bond yields: we deem our findings useful to observe the change of green bonds creditworthiness in a complex market context.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0713.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: combinatorics, risk analysis, decision analysis.
Online: 27 April 2021 (12:33:23 CEST)
Let us assume that defence mechanisms are so strong that the average outcome of a hacking attack is unsuccessful. How to calculate the costs arising from false positives and false negatives in intruder detection? Is it better for the hacker to make fewer but more effective attacks rather than several but less effective attacks? How to calculate the difference between these alternative strategies?
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0410.v1
Online: 31 December 2019 (11:14:44 CET)
In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system. Regarding that, in the paper, author presents project description ,,Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia - DISARIMES” which shall enable strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and innovative solutions implementation in the preparation, mitigation, response, remediation and post-disaster phases. The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results of the project research will make it easier for decision makers in Serbia to understand the shortcomings of the system, but also provide innovative opportunities to improve their functioning in conditions of increasingly frequent and serious disasters. Establishing a scientific and professional society in the field of disaster risk management will create sustainable and necessary conditions for the transfer and improvement of knowledge and experience of importance for raising the level of operability of the system of protection and rescue of the Republic of Serbia in the event of disasters. A key contribution of the research findings will be to create a sustainable knowledge base that will be supported by the relevant amount of information regarding innovative capabilities and solutions identified as necessary to raise social resilience to a much higher level. In order to achieve the set goals, DISARIMES makes it possible, through a large number of SWOT analyses and other multimethod studies, to clearly identify and systematize the objective deficiencies and barriers encountered by the disaster risk management system in Serbia in all its stages before, during and after disasters, to identify and implement the appropriate solutions based on this. The objectives of the project are: to assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia; to develop and update RDI (research, development, innovation) Roadmap – knowledge databases with innovative solutions and other relevant information for improvement of the disaster risk management system; to fully deploy the DISARIMES scientific-professional network involving a broad range of the disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations; to prepare the ground for the disaster risk management policy innovations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0224.v1
Online: 17 April 2018 (11:17:49 CEST)
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) created a list of Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) with the intention of determining which financial institutions were important enough to the global market that their failure would result in systemic collapse. In this work we create a model that modifies the BCBS's five indicators of size, interconnectedness, cross-jurisdictional activities, complexity, and substitutability and applies these measures of systemic stress to governments. The original application of the model is to track the systemic interdependence of the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on the case of Greece. We anticipate this model can be used in regional fiscal situations beyond the Eurozone.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0584.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Biochemistry Keywords: Parkinson’s disease; parkinsonism; LRRK2; neuropathology; modifier; genetics; GWAS; environmental risk factors; polygenic risk score
Online: 23 December 2020 (10:49:22 CET)
Missense mutations in the LRRK2 gene were first identified as a pathogenic cause of Parkinson’s disease (PD) in 2004. Soon thereafter, a founder mutation in LRRK2, p.Gly2019Ser (rs34637584), was described, and it is now estimated that there are approximately 100,000 people worldwide that carry this risk variant. While the clinical presentation of LRRK2 parkinsonism has been largely indistinguishable from sporadic PD, disease penetrance and age at onset can be quite variable. In addition, its neuropathological features span a wide range from nigrostriatal loss with Lewy body pathology, lack thereof, or atypical neuropathology including a large proportion of cases with concomitant Alzheimer’s pathology, hailing LRRK2 parkinsonism as the "Rosetta stone" of parkinsonian disorders. These differences may result from interactions between LRRK2 mutant protein and other proteins or environmental factors that modify LRRK2 function, and thereby influence pathobiology. This review explores how potential genetic and biochemical modifiers of LRRK2 function may contribute to the onset and clinical presentation of LRRK2 parkinsonism. We review, which genetic modifiers of LRRK2 influence clinical symptoms, age at onset, and penetrance, what LRRK2 mutations are associated with pleomorphic LRRK2 neuropathology, and which environmental modifiers can augment LRRK2 mutant pathophysiology. Understanding how LRRK2 function is influenced and modulated by other interactors and environmental factors –either increasing toxicity or providing resilience- will inform targeted therapeutic development in the years to come. This will allow developing disease-modifying therapies for PD and LRRK2-related neurodegeneration.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0263.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: utility; uncertainty; risk averse; wellness output; treatment inputs; coronavirus; psychological risk attitude; dynamic interactions
Online: 16 May 2020 (15:42:42 CEST)
A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable called “treatment” consisting of such elements as social distance, washing hands, wearing a face mask, and others. The decision maker selects a level of treatment that maximizes her/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person’s psychological attitude towards the macro determined (announced) probabilities affects the optimum results of the model. Such changes create a micro-macro dynamic interaction which is briefly outlined. A short discussion of the model’s behavioral implications for health policy is also given.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0038.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: asset pricing; credit risk modeling; unilateral; bilateral; multilateral credit risk; collateralization; comvariance; comrelation; correlation
Online: 3 October 2019 (04:49:57 CEST)
This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: risk measure; value at risk; tail conditional expectation; expected shortfall; bank capital; Basel accords
Online: 16 April 2019 (10:48:48 CEST)
The use of risk measures such as the Value at Risk (VaR) or Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE) is required by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in determining a bank’s risk profile. However, both measures can be shown to have shortcomings in the information that they provide to regulators and investors. In this paper we present an introduction to risk measure calculations before demonstrating the weaknesses of these measures. Through the exploration of specific cases we show how familiar yet differing risk profiles have identical values for combinations of these measures. From this evidence we recommend that a sequence of several risk measures should be used to give a more accurate representation of the risk contained on banking balance sheet.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0656.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: COVID-19; non-pharmaceutical interventions; vaccinations; vaccine doses; pre-existing condition; high risk; low risk
Online: 26 April 2021 (11:00:59 CEST)
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was first reported in the U.S. on December 29, 2019 and has spread rapidly throughout the country, affecting individuals with varying severity due to their risk status. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it is estimated that 45.4% of US adults are at higher risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of a COVID-19 vaccine among low and high risk groups. Numerical simulations shows vaccinating both low and high risk groups simultaneously, rather than prioritizing the vaccine on high risk group only, further reduces the daily mortality. The result supports the need for an aggressive vaccination program, regardless of whether individuals are within the low or high risk population.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0184.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: flood disaster risk; vulnerability to flood disaster risk; arc-geographical information system (arcgis); geo-mapping
Online: 15 November 2019 (16:54:51 CET)
Flood is identified as one of the major disasters in the world; it destroys both human and properties across the world, where lives are lost, properties, public infrastructure, farmlands and agricultural produce with farm crops carted away as a result of flood disaster. Studies revealed that the flood in itself is not the danger, but the level of human vulnerability to flooding disaster risk, which enhances its destructive capabilities. However, based on the challenges poses by flood disaster risk, this research identifies Ala river in Akure as a potential cause of flood, considering its location and other human activities around the river. Therefore, the research used Ala-river a case study to identify and mapped out areas susceptible to flood disaster risk. The research made use of both literature review and conducted goe-data gathering with the application GIS-computer database to retrieve georeferencing relevant data from the fieldwork in the study area of Ala-river basin to mapped out locations vulnerable to achieve the research aim. The research adopted a Geo-mapping of the vulnerable area to Ala-River basin using arc-GIS tool in combination with other software such as IKONAS and OLI (Operation Land Imager) for the production of the study area imagery, ER-ITERIM was used for the collection of rainfall data and FAO was applied for digital soil mapping. These applications produced; the land use/land cover map, digital elevation map, buffer map using 30 meters setback, annual rainfall map, soil types map, vulnerability map and soil textural table for the study area. Analysis of the produced and generated maps shows 316 buildings vulnerability to flood disaster risk; the soil texture and types, and alternative use to which the soil types can be useful. The research recommends that demolition of the identified 316 buildings prone to flood disaster and compliance of building construction to 30 meters setback by developers. Others are the conversion of the future land setback for urban agricultural purposes and preservation of water retention areas for agricultural activities during the dry season among others. The study concludes that relevant government agencies in the State and in particular in Akure South Local Government should ensure prompt compliance and implementation of the recommendations to avoid potential flood disaster risks.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0135.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: Sporadic Parkinson’s disease. Drosophila, genetic risk factor, environmental risk factor,Serendipity, dopamine, neurodegeneration, animal model
Online: 7 September 2018 (12:40:50 CEST)
Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the most common cause of movement disorder characterized by the progressive loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. It is increasingly recognized as a complex group of disorders presenting widely heterogenous symptoms and pathology. Except for the rare monogenic forms, the majority of the PD cases result from an interaction between multiple genetic and environmental risk factors. The search for these risk factors and the development of preclinical animal models are in progress hand in hand, providing mechanistic insights into the pathogenesis of PD. This review summarizes the studies that capitalize on modeling sporadic (i.e. non-familial) PD using Drosophila melanogaster and discuss their methodology, new findings and future perspective.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0022.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: Monkeypox; risk; elimination; epidemiology; outbreak; prediction
Online: 4 October 2022 (11:10:54 CEST)
Monkeypox, caused by monkeypox virus, has spread unprecedentedly to more than 100 countries since May 2022. Here we summarized the epidemiology of monkeypox through a literature review and elucidated the risks and the elimination strategies of this outbreak mainly based on the summarized epidemiology. We demonstrated that monkeypox virus became more contagious and less virulent in 2022, which could result from the fact that the virus entered a special transmission network favoring close contacts (i.e., sexual behaviors of men who have sex with men) and/or the possibility that the virus accumulated a few adaptive mutations. We gave the reasons to investigate whether cattle, goats, sheep, and pigs are susceptible to monkeypox virus and whether infection of monkeypox virus could be latent in some primates. We listed six potential scenarios about the future of the outbreak (e.g., the outbreak could lead to endemicity outside Africa with increased transmissibility or virulence). We also listed multiple factors aiding or impeding the elimination of the outbreak. We showed that the control measures strengthened worldwide after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) could well control but could not eliminate the outbreak in 2022. We clarified eight strategies, i.e., publicity and education, case isolation, vaccine stockpiling, risk-based vaccination or ring vaccination, importation quarantine, international collaboration, and laboratory management, for the elimination of the outbreak.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0174.v1
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Clinical Psychology Keywords: apolipoprotein; suicide; biomarker; psychiatry; risk factor
Online: 9 August 2022 (05:10:32 CEST)
Every year around 800 000 people commit suicide, this represents one death every 40 seconds. In the search for possible biological biomarkers associated with suicide and/or psychiatric disorders, serum cholesterol levels have been extensively explored. Several studies have indicated that cholesterol and associated proteins, especially apolipoproteins (Apos), may play an important role in the diagnosis, prognosis, and susceptibility of suicide. Here, we describe the current knowledge and findings in the relationship between apolipoproteins and suicide.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0005.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Durability; Reinforced concrete; Automated visualization; Risk
Online: 1 August 2022 (05:09:38 CEST)
Reinforced Concrete (RC) durability is a crucial feature to estimate the long-term quality and structural performance. Since life span estimation is vital for maintenance resource planning, a degradation model of RC component extracts by updating the status of structures and trending the components’ state over time in terms of durability. Surface erosion, spalling, cracks, and other expose defects on the RC component lead to increase factors adversely affecting concrete durability in structures. This research presents an approach based on automated visualization for extracting quantitative indexes beside or instead of visual inspection without subjective interspersion of humans or probable human errors during the inspection. The durability index (D_i) will extract based on damage probability and its growth in order to extract the severity of failure and risk. Measurement operation by automated software has been double-checked by manual measurement tools, and data will verify randomly in this method. The result shows damage growth in this load-bearing component by 24 percentages over the definite time. According to degradation models, it shows this component may pass the relative thresholds as a limit state of operation to fail. This significant difference between expected time and designing time determines the D_i equal to 5 out of 10.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0343.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: resilience; communication; systemic risk; systemic recovery
Online: 25 March 2022 (09:02:49 CET)
This work reviews three frameworks for responding to economic disruption: risk mitigation, systemic recovery, and economic resilience. Specifically, by reviewing extant literature in economics, communication, and other disciplines, we argue that current approaches to understanding resilience in economics largely fail to address ongoing and emergent disruptions to the economic and social world. In response to these issues, we work to synthesize economic frameworks and the communication theory of resilience to forward a new way of examining the overlapping questions of economic resilience related to metatheoretical commitments, analytic contexts, and implications for theory, method, and practice.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0148.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: Pneumonic plague; transmission; risk; frequency; epidemic
Online: 9 December 2021 (10:32:40 CET)
Pneumonic plague outbreaks are relatively infrequent in modern times but in the early part of the 20th century, they were commonplace including several well-documented epidemics responsible for the deaths of thousands. The transmissibility of this disease seems to be discontinuous since in some outbreaks few transmissions occur, while in others, the progression of the epidemic is explosive. Modern epidemiological studies explain that transmissibility within populations is heterogenous with relatively few subjects likely to be responsible for most transmissions and that ‘super spreading events’, particularly at the start of an outbreak, can lead to a rapid expansion of cases. These findings concur with outbreaks observed in real-world situations. It is often reported that pneumonic plague is rare and not easily transmitted but this view could lead to unnecessary complacency since future risks such as the spontaneous incidence of anti-microbial strains, climate change leading to a disruption of natural cycles within plague foci and use of plague as a bioweapon cannot be discounted. Carers and first responders are vulnerable, particularly in poorer countries where access to medicines may be limited, out-breaks occur in inaccessible areas or where there is a lack of surveillance due to a paucity of funds.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0397.v1
Online: 27 October 2021 (10:53:56 CEST)
This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the influence of demographic factors on the earthquake risk perception of the citizens of Belgrade. This research aims to determine how much the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the risk and prepared to react in the event of an earthquake. The relationship between gender, age, level of education, and facility ownership with risk perception was examined. T-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to examine the relationship between the variables and the earthquake risk perception. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 235 Belgrade respondents during September 2020. The questions were divided into three categories. The first part of the questionnaire was consisted of general questions about the demographic characteristics of the respondents, then the questions that would determine the level of awareness of the respondents about earthquakes, and finally, the questions for determining the respondents' preparedness. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents from the age category of 18-30 have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education level in no case showed a statistically significant correlation with risk perception.