Hydrological processes are complex to compute on hilly areas when compared to the plain areas. Most of the hydrological model do not take into account the critical rainfall-runoff generation processes such as subsurface storm flow, saturation excess flow, overland flow, return flow and pipe storage. The simulations of the above processes in the soil matrix requires detailed hillslope hydrological modelling. In present study, a hillslope experimental plot is designed to study the runoff generation processes on the plot scale. The setup is designed keeping in view the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in the north western Himalayas, India where high intensity storm event occurs frequently. Using the experimental data and the developed conceptual model, the overland flow and the subsurface flow through macropore dominated area has been estimated/analyzed on the pixel basis. Over the experimental hillslope plot, a rainfall simulator was installed to generate the rainfall intensity in the range of 15 to 150 mm/hr which represented the dominating rainfall intensity range in the region. Soil moisture sensors were also installed at 100 mm and 300 mm depth at different locations of the plot to observe soil moisture variations. It was found that once the soil is saturated, it remains in the field capacity for next 24-36 hours. Such antecedent moisture conditions are most favorable for the generation of rapid stormflow from hillslopes. Dye infiltration test was also performed on the undisturbed soil column to observe the macropore fraction variability over the vegetated hillslopes. The surface runoff predicted using the developed hillslope hydrological model compared well with the observed surface runoff under high intensity rainfall conditions.

Among other applications, radar-rainfall (RR) and QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) based on radar reflectivity, dual polarization variables, and multi-sensor information, provide important information for land surface hydrology, such as flood forecasting. Therefore, we developed a flood alert system using rainfall-runoff model forced with RR and QPE, and tipping-bucket observations to forecast river water levels (using rating-curves). In this study, we used an hourly dataset from an S-Band dual-polarimetric radar with two tropical R(Z) relations based distrometer data, a polarimetric R(Z,ZDR) algorithm from the literature and a multi-sensor approach using radar, satellite and rain gauge. Two hydrological models were used and calibrated using observed discharge time-series. Although our previous studies indicated accurate RR-based simulations, in some cases floods were not detected when using catchment-lumped rainfall derived from multi-sensor QPE. In this study, we advance further in this subject using improved R(Z,ZDR) relations and QPE for the period of 2016-2017 and flood event-based rainfall-runoff calibration. Thus, we focused on the development (and timing) of floods in the Marrecas River can be complex and strongly related to storms spatiotemporal distribution. To explore this aspect, we also perform a first analysis in using RR in rainfall-runoff model with a nested catchment discretization.

This paper presents a comparison of the predictive capability of three hydrological models in a heavily influenced catchment in Peninsula India. In catchments where there is a high dependence on both streamflow and groundwater to meet demands, it is of importance to capture the catchment processes correctly. This study highlights the performance evaluation of a multi-model ensemble consisting of GWAVA (Global Water AVailability Assessment) model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model for comparative purposes and the key catchment hydrological processes. The three models were compared in several sub-catchments in the upstream reaches of the Cauvery river catchment. Model performances for monthly streamflow simulations from 1983 – 2005 were analysed for five catchments in the Upper Cauvery. The analysis was undertaken using Nash- Sutcliffe Efficiency, Kling- Gupta Efficiency and percent bias. Additionally, a mean ensemble is presented. The application of a multi-model ensemble approach can be useful in overcoming the uncertainties associated with individual models. The ensemble mean has a better predictive ability in catchments with reservoirs than the individual models. Utilising multiple models could be a suitable methodology to offset uncertainty in input data and poor reservoir operation functionality within individual models. This study has highlighted the importance of an accurate spatial representation of precipitation for input into hydrological models and comprehensive reservoir functionality is paramount to obtaining good results in this region.

Flash flooding, a hazard which is triggered by heavy rainfall is a major concern in many regions of the world often with devastating results in mountainous elevated regions. We adapted remote sensing modelling methods to analyse one flood in July 2015, and believe the process can be applicable to other regions in the world. The isolated thunderstorm rainfall occurred in the Chitral River Basin (CRB), which is fed by melting glaciers and snow from the highly elevated Hindu Kush Mountains (Tirick Mir peak’s elevation is 7708 m). The devastating cascade, or domino effect, resulted in a flash flood which destroyed many houses, roads, and bridges and washed out agricultural land. CRB had experienced devastating flood events in the past, but there was no hydraulic modelling and mapping zones available for the entire CRB region. That is why modelling analyses and predictions are important for disaster mitigation activities. For this flash flood event, we developed an integrated methodology for a regional scale flood model that integrates the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, Geographic Information System (GIS), hydrological (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS) modelling tools. We collected and use driver discharge and flood depth observation data for five river sub-stream areas, which were acquired in cooperation with the Aga Khan Rural Support Program (AKRSP) organization. This data was used for the model’s calibration and verification. This modelling methodology is applicable for other regional studies especially for rough mountainous areas which lack local observations and river discharge gauges. The results of flood modelling are useful for the development of a regional early flood warning system and flood mitigation in hazardous flood risk areas. The flood simulations and prepared connected video visualization can be used for local communities. This approach is applicable for flood mitigation strategies in other regions.

Hydrological models have been widely used for many purposes in water sector projects, including streamflow prediction and flood risk assessment. Among the input data used in such hydrological models, the spatial-temporal variability of rainfall datasets has a significant role on the final discharge estimation. Therefore, accurate measurements of rainfall are vital. On the other hand, ground-based measurement networks, mainly in developing countries, are either nonexistent or too sparse to capture rainfall accurately. In addition to in-situ rainfall datasets, satellite-derived rainfall products are nowadays available globally with high spatial and temporal resolution. An innovative approach called SM2RAIN that estimates rainfall from soil moisture data has been applied successfully to various regions. In this study, firstly soil moisture content derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth observing system (AMSR-E) is used as input into the SM2RAIN algorithm to estimate daily rainfall, SM2R-AMSRE, at different sites in the Karkheh river basin (KRB), southwest Iran. Secondly, the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is applied to simulate runoff using both ground-based observed rainfall and SM2R-AMSRE rainfall as input. The results reveal that the SM2R-AMSRE rainfall data are, in most cases, in good agreement with ground-based rainfall, with correlations R ranging between 0.58 and 0.88, though there is some underestimation of the observed rainfall, due to soil moisture saturation, not accounted for in the SM2RAIN equation. The subsequent SM2R-AMSRE- SWAT- simulated monthly runoff reproduces well the observations at the 6 gauging stations (with coefficient of determination, R² > 0.72), though with slightly worse performances in terms of bias (Bias) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and, again, some systematic flow underestimation than the SWAT model with ground-based rainfall input. Furthermore, rainfall estimations of two satellite products of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), 3B42 and 3B42RT, are used in the calibrated SWAT- model. The monthly runoff obtained with 3B42- rainfall have 0.39< R2 < 0.70 and are slightly better than those obtained with 3B42RT- rainfall, but not as good as the SM2R-AMSRE- SWAT- simulated runoff above. Therefore, in spite of the afore-mentioned limitations, using SM2R-AMSRE rainfall data in a hydrological model like SWAT, appears to be a viable approach in basins with limited ground-based rainfall data.

Mahanadi is one of the major inter-state east flowing perennial rivers in peninsular India. Hamp watershed of Seonath Sub-basin of upper Mahanadi basin was considered for the study to estimate the sediment yield and nutrient loss-based identification of critical agricultural sub-watershed and its critical Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in-terfaced with GIS i.e., ArcSWAT. The study area was divided into 14 sub-watersheds considering topographical parameters derived from DEM and drainage network. The land cover, soil layers, and DEM were used to generate 207 HRUs for analysis of annual runoff, sediment yield and nu-trient loss for 2004-2008 (calibration period) and 2010-2013 (validation period). The sediment yield, runoff estimation and nutrient loss matched consistently well with the monthly and seasonal measured values. On the basis of average annual sediment yield (18.18 t/ha), runoff (245.97 mm) and nutrient loss NO3-N (1.62 kg/ha), respectively, sub-watershed WS4 was categorized under high priority for critical are identification. The sub watershed WS4 comprises of 15 HRUs (No. 36 - 50) with four kharif crops viz rice, soybean, maize and sugarcane. Results showed that the crops soy-bean, maize and sugarcane reduced the average annual runoff by 18.1, 31.4 and 18.0 per cent, respectively whereas the sediment yield was increased drastically by 104.5, 37.5 and 5.7 per cent, respectively as compared to rice. Soybean and maize crops HRU generate significant amount of soil and nutrient loss and were found to be as the critical HRUs for the upper Mahanadi River basin

In this study, Acısu Basin, which is upper side of one of the most important basins (Gediz) in Türkiye, was modelled using three types of hydrological models and three different calibration algorithms. Lumped (GR4J), semi-distributed (SWAT+), and fully distributed (mHM) hydrological models were built and integrated with Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST) which is a model independent calibration tool including various algorithms. Levenberg Marquardt (L-M), Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE), and Covariance Matrix Adoption Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) were selected as calibration algorithms. Calibration period was 1991-2000, and validation results were obtained for 2002-2005. The effect of model structure and calibration algorithm selection on discharge simulation was evaluated via comparison of 9 different model-algorithm combinations. Results have shown that mHM and CMA-ES combination showed the best discharge simulation performance according to NSE values (calibration: 0.67, validation: 0.60). Although statistically the model results were classified as acceptable, the pattern comparison of discharge value shows that all of the models miss the peak values in significant amounts. This problem may be related to the interventions made in 2000-2001 years interval and possible to overcome by changing the calibration and validation periods, increasing the number of iterations or using the naturalized gauge data.

The megacities´ sewage creates socioeconomic dependence related to water availability in the nearby zones, especially in countries with hydric stress. The present paper studies the water balance progression of realistic scenarios from 2005 to 2050 in the Mezquital Valley, the receptor of Mexico City untreated sewage since 1886, allowing agriculture irrigation in unsustainable conditions. WEAP model calculated the water demand and supply. Validation was performed with outflows data of the Tula River and simulated three scenarios: 1st) Steady-state based on inertial growth rates, 2nd) Transient scenario concerned climate change outcomes, with minor influence in surface water and hydric stress in 2050; 3rd) Transient scenario perturbed with a planned reduction of 36% in the imported wastewater and the start-up of a massive Water Treatment Plant, allowing drip and sprinkler irrigation since 2030. In the 2005-2017 period, 59% of the agriculture depended on the flood irrigation with megacity sewage. The water balance scenarios evaluated the sectorial supply of the ground and superficial water. Drip irrigation would reduce 42% of agriculture demands, but still does not grant the downflow hydroelectric requirements, aggravated by the lack of wastewater supply since 2030. This research alerts about how present policies compromise future Valley demands.

Glaciers in northern Pakistan are a prime source of freshwater, providing headwater in the Indus river system and serving as a lifeline to millions of people in the region. These glaciers undergo continuous changes by melting due to global warming or accumulation due to snowfall/precipitation at higher altitudes. In this study, we used remote sensing data to quantify glacier changes in spatiotemporal variability in the past three decades. Five glaciers in the Gilgit region (near the junction of the Hindukush and Karakoram Mountains) with an extent of less than 5 square kilometers were selected, namely Phakor glacier, Karamber glacier, East Gammu glacier, Bhort glacier, and Bad-e-Swat glacier. The fluctuations in these glaciers were monitored using a digital elevation model (DEM) and a cloud-free continuous series of Landsat satellite pictures from the minimal snow cover season. The annual climatic trends were studied through spatially interpolated gridded climate data WοrldClim version-1 climate database for 1970 – 2000. We used it to study the variations of minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation through the preparation of sub-sets from the original global grids. Because of its exact delineation in the Gilgit sub-basin, the characterized watersheds were visually compared to optical Landsat 8 OLI data for mountainous ridge matching, revealing that SRTM 30m (radar-based) demonstrated greater accuracy than other DEMs. The temporal assessment of Bhort, Bad-e-Sawat, East Gammu, Karamber, and other rivers was also carried out. It is observed that the glaciers in the Gilgit watershed are rather stable. The little variability of glaciers is due to their geographic condition, altitude, topography, and orientation. Validation of the mapped glacier classes has been performed to check the accuracy assessment through an error matrix method. The kappa coefficient from the error matrix has been calculated to be 84 %. The study makes a critical input to a greater understanding of watershed controlling and hydrological processes in the upper Indus catchment's Gilgit watershed.

Specific emissivity features of swamps and wetlands of Western Siberia were studied for changing seasonal conditions with the use of daily data of satellite microwave sounding. The research technique involved the analysis of brightness temperatures of the underlying surface at the test sites. Variations in seasonal dynamics of brightness temperatures were mainly caused by different rates of seasonal freezing of the upper waterlogged layer of the underlying surface and dielectric characteristics of water containing natural media (water body, soil, vegetation). We analyzed long-term trends in seasonal and annual dynamics of brightness temperatures of the underlying surface and estimated hydrological changes in the Arctic and Subarctic. The findings open up new possibilities for using satellite data in the microwave range for studying natural seasonal dynamic processes and predicting hazardous hydrological phenomena.

This study evaluated the impact of climate change on water resources in a large semi-arid urban watershed located in Niamey Republic of Niger, West Africa. The watershed was modeled using the fully integrated surface-subsurface HydroGeoSpheremodel at a high spatial resolution. Historical (1980-2005) and projected (2020-2050) climate scenario derived from the outputs of three Regional Climate Models (RCM) under the RCP 4.5 scenario were statistically downscaled using the multiscale quantile mapping bias correction method. Results show that the bias correction method is optimum at daily and monthly scales, and increased RCM resolution does not improve the performance of the model. The three RCMs predict increases of up to 1.6% in annual rainfall and of 1.58°C for mean annual temperatures between the historical and projected periods. The durations of the Minimum Environmental Flow (MEF) conditions, required to supply drinking and agriculture water, were found to be sensitive to changes in runoff resulting from climate change. MEF occurrences and durations are likely to be greater for (2020-2030), and then they will be reduced for (2030-2050). All three RCMs consistently project a rise in groundwater table of more than 10 meters in topographically high zones where the groundwater table is deep and an increase of 2 meters in the shallow groundwater table.

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, to be launched in 2021, will provide water surface elevations, slopes, and river width measurements for rivers wider than 100 m. In this study, synthetic SWOT data are assimilated in a regional hydrometeorological model in order to improve the dynamics of continental waters over the Garonne catchment, one of the major French catchments. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the sequential assimilation of SWOT-like river depths allows the correction of river bed roughness coefficients and thus simulated river depths. An extended Kalman Filter is implemented and the data assimilation strategy was applied to four experiments of gradually increasing complexity regarding observation and model error over the 1995-2000 period. With respect to a “true” river state, assimilating river depths allows the proper retrieval of constant and spatially distributed roughness coefficients with a root mean square error of 1 m1/3 s-1, and the estimation of associated river depths. It was also shown that river depth differences can be assimilated, resulting in a higher root mean square error for roughness coefficients with respect to the true river state. The last study shows how one can take into account more realistic sources of SWOT error measurements, in particular the importance of the estimation of the tropospheric water content in the process.

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of disastrous events in the world, but several disparities in population vulnerability are being registered. One of the causes of these variances is different public risk perception also due to the degree of education and knowledge of the population. In this study, some of the results obtained in a risk perception survey are presented. The survey was carried out in an area of Calabria (Southern Italy) hit by geo-hydrological events that have occurred in recent years with damage to roads, tourism facilities and private houses. A statistical interpretation of the results highlights the importance of education and knowledge to risk perception on the part of the population investigated.

The Infierno glacier is located in Aragon (Spain), Pyrenees mountain range, southern slope, the only one in this country that still preserves white glaciers. These are the southernmost glaciers in Europe and are currently in rapid regression. The work analyzes the evolution of the glacier between 2016 and 2022 (taking as "year zero" or starting point, 2015). In addition to the observations on the glacier itself, the variables (precipitation, temperatures, snow volumes and thicknesses) that allow understanding this evolution are studied. The results offer strong regression, with thickness losses in that period of 4.6 m and retreat of its front of 14.9 m. The evolution has frequent trend changes, linked to the interannual climatic irregularity characteristic of this mountain range. The main explanatory factor is the thermal increase. The thermal anomalies with respect to the average reference values have increased, in this period, +0.55° C. The year 2022 has been particularly warm and has recorded the greatest regression of the glacier (between May and August, the thermal anomalies were between +4° C and +2° C). Regarding precipitations, they have irregular tendencies and show a decreasing trend (-9% in the same period of time).

Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWSs) using Machine Learning (ML) has gained worldwide popularity. However, determining the most efficient ML technique is still a bottleneck. We assessed FEWSs with three river states, No-alert, Pre-alert, and Alert for flooding, for lead times between 1 to 12 hours using the most common ML techniques, such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Logistic Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Naive Bayes (NB), and Random Forest (RF). The Tomebamba catchment in the tropical Andes of Ecuador was selected as case study. For all lead times, MLP models achieve the highest performance followed by LR, with f1-macro (log-loss) scores of 0.82 (0.09) and 0.46 (0.20) for the 1- and 12-hour cases, respectively. The ranking was highly variable for the remaining ML techniques. According to the g-mean, LR models correctly forecast and show more stability at all states, while the MLP models perform better in the Pre-alert and Alert states. Future efforts are recommended to enhance the input data representation and develop communication applications to boost the awareness of the society for floods.

A debris flows generation related to a poorly sorted mixture of soil, catchment topography and rainfall characteristic. Runoff of some depth on valley resulting from intensive rainfall can incur the sediments movement of beds or adjacent banks. The fluid flow in channel affected by rainfall parameters combinations, such as duration, intensity, cumulative rainfall, etc., is the key factor for debris movement. In this paper, the rainfall characteristics and occurrence conditions of debris flow in Xiongmao gully on July, 26th, 2016, have been explored, combined with field survey and indoor simulation experiment on the collected critical discharge parameters of debris movement. Further, debris distribution and the critical discharge characteristics have been analysed, by means of investigation on the catchment topography and occurrence cause of the debris flow, analysis of the critical discharge parameters on which the channel debris began to move, and K value clustering analysis method to characterize the rainfall pattern of the studied area, the discharge calculation of debris flow occurring in different rainfall patterns. The results have shown that, for the debris flow occurrence in Xiongmao gully, the debris initiation on the middle reaches of the gully provide the majority of solid particles for the disaster on July, 26th, 2016, and the upstream confluent provided catchment. Based on the relationship obtained from laboratory test, in which the calculated critical discharge was 43.8m3/s, less than the peak discharge (Qc =66.7m3/s), calculated by morphological method. In addition, it has been indicated that the dominated rainfall patterns of the studied area are first-quartile and second-quartile, that is, the rainfall is primarily at earlier or middle to preliminary stage of this time rainfall event. The critical discharge for the occurrence of debris flow on July, 26th was achieved 20a rainfall frequency, the larger runoff volume generated on shorten heavily rainfall. Based on individuality characteristics, such as distributed hydrological analysis, critical discharge and rainfall pattern of debris flow, the forewarning could be more efficient.

This study assessed the hydrological performance and runoff water quality of 12 green roof (GR) modular systems located at the Universidad de los Andes campus (Bogotá, Colombia). Based on 223 rainfall events spanning a 3-year period, average rainfall retention was 85% (SD = 25%). T-tests, Welch Test, multiple linear regressions and correlation analysis were performed in order to assess the potential effect of air temperature, substrate type, vegetation cover, relative humidity, antecedent dry weather period (ADWP), rainfall duration and rainfall maximum intensity. In some cases, GR design variables (i.e. growing media and type of vegetation) were found to be significant for describing rainfall retention efficiencies and, depending on the GR type, some hydrological variables were also correlated with the rainfall retention. Rainfall and GR runoff were monitored for Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen (TKN), Nitrates, Nitrites, Ammonia, Total Phosphorus (TP), Phosphates, pH, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), Total Suspended Solids (TSS), Color, Turbidity, Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Total Coliforms, metals and Poliaromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs). The results obtained confirmed that GR systems have the ability to neutralize pH, but are source of the rest of the aforementioned parameters, excluding PAHs (with concentrations below detection limits), Ammonia, TSS, Se and Li, where differences with reference values (rainfall and plastic panel runoff) were not statistically significant. Substrate type, event size and rainfall regime are relevant variables for explaining runoff water quality.

The Tibetan Plateau(TP) is known as ‘the water tower of Asian’, its precipitation variation play an important role in the eco-hydrological processes and water resources regimes. based on the monthly mean precipitation data of 65 meteorological stations over the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding areas from 1961-2015,variations, trends and temporal-spatial distribution were analyzed, furthermore, the possible reasons were also discussed preliminarily. The main results are summarized as follows: the annual mean precipitation in the TP is 465.54mm during 1961-2015, among four seasons, the precipitation in summer accounts for 60.1% of the annual precipitation, the precipitation in summer half year (May.- Oct.) accounts for 91.0% while that in winter half year (Nov.- Apr.) only accounts for 9.0%; During 1961-2015, the annual precipitation variability is 0.45mm/a and the seasonal precipitation variability is 0.31mm/a, 0.13mm/a, -0.04mm/a and 0.04mm/a in spring, summer, autumn and winter respectively on the TP; The spatial distribution of precipitation can be summarized as decreasing from southeast to northwest in the TP, the trend of precipitation is decreasing with the increase of altitude, but the correlation is not significant. The rising of air temperature and land cover changes may cause the precipitation by changing the hydrologic cycle and energy budget, furthermore, different pattern of atmospheric circulation can also influence on precipitation variability in different regions.

Spatial pattern-oriented evaluations of distributed hydrological models have contributed towards an improved realism of hydrological simulations. This advancement was supported by the broad range of readily available satellite-based datasets of key hydrological variables, such as evapotranspiration (ET). At larger scale, spatial patterns of ET are often characterized by an underlying climate gradient, and with this study, we argue that gradient dominated patterns may hamper the potential of spatial pattern-oriented evaluation frameworks. We hypothesize that the climate control of spatial patterns of ET overshadows the effect model parameters have on the simulated variability. To solve this limitation, we propose a climate normalization strategy. This is demonstrated for the Senegal River basin as modeling case study, where the dominant north-south precipitation gradient is the main driver of the observed hydrological variability. Two multi-objective calibration experiments investigate the effect of climate normalization. Both calibrations utilize observed discharge (Q) in combination with remote sensing ET data, where one is based on the original ET pattern and the other utilizes the normalized ET pattern. We identify parameter sets that balance the tradeoffs between the two independent observations and find that the calibration using the normalized ET pattern does not compromise the spatial patern performance of the original pattern. However, vice versa, this is not necessarily the case, since the calibration using the original ET pattern showed a poorer performance for the normalized pattern. Both calibrations reached comparable performance of Q. With this study, we identified a general shortcoming of spatial pattern-oriented model evaluations using ET in basins dominated by a climate gradient, but we argue that this also applies to other variables such as, soil moisture or land surface temperature.

While the ongoing climate change is well documented, the impacts exhibit a substantial variability, both in direction and magnitude, visible even at regional and local scales. However, the knowledge of regional impacts is crucial for the design of mitigation and adaptation measures, particularly when changes in the hydrological cycle are concerned. In this paper we present hydro-meteorological trends based on observations from a hydrological research basin in Eastern Austria between 1979-2019. The analysed state variables include the air temperature, the precipitation, and the catchment runoff. Additionally, trends for the catchment evapotranspiration were derived. The analysis shows that while the mean annual temperature was decreasing and annual temperature minima remained constant, the annual maxima were rising. The long-term trends indicate a shift of precipitation to the summer with minor variations observed for the remaining seasons and at an annual scale. Observed precipitation intensities mainly increased in spring and summer between 1979-2019. The catchment evapotranspiration, computed based on catchment precipitation and outflow, showed an increasing trend for the observed time period.

Precipitation downscaling is widely employed for enhancing the resolution and accuracy of precipitation products from general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, we propose a novel statistical downscaling method to foster GCMs’ precipitation prediction resolution and accuracy for monsoon region. We develop a deep neural network composed of convolution and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent module to estimate precipitation based on well-resolved atmospheric dynamical fields. The proposed model is compared against GCM precipitation product and classical downscaling methods in the Xiangjiang River Basin in South China. Results show considerable improvement compared to the ECMWF-Interim reanalysis precipitation. Also, the model outperforms benchmark downscaling approaches, including 1) quantile mapping, 2) support vector machine, and 3) convolutional neural network. To test the robustness of the model and its applicability in practical forecast, we apply the trained network for precipitation prediction forced by retrospective forecasts from ECMWF model. Compared to ECMWF precipitation forecast, our model makes better use of the resolved dynamical field for more accurate precipitation prediction at lead time from 1 day up to 2 weeks. This superiority decreases along forecast lead time, as GCM’s skill in predicting atmospheric dynamics being diminished by the chaotic effect. At last, we build a distributed hydrological model and force it with different sources of precipitation inputs. Hydrological simulation forced with the neural network precipitation estimation shows significant advantage over simulation forced with the original ERA-Interim precipitation (with NSE value increases from 0.06 to 0.64), and the performance is just slightly worse than the observed precipitation forced simulation (NSE=0.82). This further proves the value of the proposed downscaling method, and suggests its potential for hydrological forecasts.

The finding of important explanatory variables for the location parameter and the scale parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, when the latter is used for the modelling of annual streamflow maxima, is known to have reduced the uncertainties in inferences, as estimated through regional flood frequency analysis frameworks. However, important explanatory variables have not been found for the GEV shape parameter, despite its critical significance, which stems from the fact that it determines the behaviour of the upper tail of the distribution. Here we examine the nature of the shape parameter by revealing its relationships with basin attributes. We use a dataset that comprises information about daily streamflow and forcing, climatic indices, topographic, land cover, soil and geological characteristics of 591 basins with minimal human influence in the contiguous United States. We propose a framework that uses random forests and linear models to find (a) important predictor variables of the shape parameter and (b) an interpretable model with high predictive performance. The process of study comprises of assessing the predictive performance of the models, selecting a parsimonious predicting model and interpreting the results in an ad-hoc manner. The findings suggest that the shape parameter mostly depends on climatic indices, while the selected prediction model results in more than 20% higher accuracy in terms of RMSE compared to a naïve approach. The implications are important, since incorporating the regression model into regional flood frequency analysis frameworks can considerably reduce the predictive uncertainties.

According to the Water Framework Directive, the Ecological Flow (Eflow) is assumed to be the minimum water discharge required to achieve and maintain the environmental objectives of “good quality status” in a natural water body. It is highly recognized that, the hydrological regime of natural flow plays a primary and crucial role influencing the physical conditions of habitats, which in turn determines the biotic composition and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, the simple assumption to supply a minimum instream during dry periods is not enough any longer in order to protect the river environment. The recent hydro-ecological understanding states that all flow components might be considered as operational targets for water management, starting from base flows (including low flows) to high and flood regimes in terms of magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change. Several codes have been developed and applied on different case studies in order to define common tools to be implemented for the Eflow assessment. The study proposes the application of the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration methodology (IHA by TNC) coupled to the valuation of the Index of Hydrological Regime Alteration (IARI by ISPRA) as an operative tool to define the ecological flow in each monitoring cross section to support the sustainable water resources management and planning. The case study of Agri River, in Basilicata (Southern Italy) is presented. The analyses have been carried out on monthly discharge data derived applying the HEC-Hydrological Modelling System at the basin scale using the daily rain data measurements obtained by the regional rainfall gauge stations and calibrated through the observed inlet water discharge registered at the Lago del Pertusillo reservoir station.

In terrain analysis and hydrological modeling, surface depressions (or sinks) in a digital elevation model (DEM) are commonly treated as artifacts and thus filled and removed to create a depressionless DEM. Various algorithms have been developed to identify and fill depressions in DEMs during the past decades. However, few studies have attempted to delineate and quantify the nested hierarchy of actual depressions, which can provide crucial information for characterizing surface hydrologic connectivity and simulating the fill-merge-spill hydrological process. In this paper, we present an innovative and efficient algorithm for delineating and quantifying nested depressions in DEMs using the level-set method based on graph theory. The proposed level-set method emulates water level decreasing from the spill point along the depression boundary to the lowest point at the bottom of a depression. By tracing the dynamic topological changes (i.e., depression splitting/merging) within a compound depression, the level-set method can construct topological graphs and derive geometric properties of the nested depressions. The experimental results of two fine-resolution LiDAR-derived DEMs show that the raster-based level-set algorithm is much more efficient (~150 times faster) than the vector-based contour tree method. The proposed level-set algorithm has great potential for being applied to large-scale ecohydrological analysis and watershed modeling.

Climate change is a global issue that draws widespread attention from the international society. As an important component of the climate system, the water cycle is directly affected by climate change. Thus, it is very important to study the influences of climate change on the basin water cycle with respect to maintenance of healthy rivers, sustainable use of water resources, and sustainable socioeconomic development in the basin. In this study, by assessing the suitability of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Automated Statistical Downscaling model (ASD) were used to generate future climate change scenarios. These were then used to drive distributed hydrologic models (Variable Infiltration Capacity, Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for hydrological simulation of the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins, thereby quantifying the effects of climate change on the basin water cycle. The results showed that suitability assessment adopted in this study could effectively reduce the uncertainty of GCMs, and that statistical downscaling was able to greatly improve precipitation and temperature outputs in global climate mode. Compared to a baseline period (1961–1990), projected future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) had a slightly decreasing tendency of runoff in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. In particular, a significant increase in runoff was observed during flood seasons in the southeast part. However, runoff of the upper Yellow River basin decreased continuously. The results provide a reference for studying climate change in major river basins of China.

Land cover and climate changes greatly influence hydrologic responses of a basin. However, the response vary from basin to basin depending on the nature and severity of the changes and basin characteristics. Moreover, the combined impacts of the changes affect hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner. This study quantified the separate and combined impacts, and the relative contributions of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrological regimes (i.e., surface runoff, streamflow, groundwater recharge evapotranspiration) for the Dhidhessa Subbasin. Land cover and climate change data were obtained from a recent study completed for the basin. Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) was used to quantify the impacts. The result showed that SWAT model performed well for the Dhidhessa Subbasin in predicting the water balance components. Substantial land cover change as well as an increasing temperature and rainfall trends were reported in the river basin during the past three decades. In response to these changes, surface runoff, streamflow and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased while groundwater recharge declined. Surface runoff was more sensitive to land cover than to climate changes whereas streamflow and AET were more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. The combined impacts played offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET while inconsistent effects within study periods for other hydrologic responses. Overall, the predicted hydrologic responses will have negative impacts on agricultural production and water resources availability. Therefore, the implementation of integrated watershed management strategies such as soil and water conservation and afforestation could reverse the negative impacts.

Artificial intelligence methods and application have recently shown great contribution in modeling and prediction of the hydrological processes, climate change, and earth systems. Among them, deep learning and machine learning methods mainly have reported being essential for achieving higher accuracy, robustness, efficiency, computation cost, and overall model performance. This paper presents the state of the art of machine learning and deep learning methods and applications in this realm and the current state, and future trends are discussed. The survey of the advances in machine learning and deep learning are presented through a novel classification of methods. The paper concludes that deep learning is still in the first stages of development, and the research is still progressing. On the other hand, machine learning methods are already established in the fields, and novel methods with higher performance are emerging through ensemble techniques and hybridization.

The Arctic freshwater budget is critical for understanding the climate in the northern regions. However, the hydrology of the Arctic circumpolar tundra region (ACTR) and the largest pan-Arctic rivers are still not well understood. In the present paper, we analyze the spatiotemporal variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) of the ACTR, including three of its largest pan-Arctic river basins (Lena, Mackenzie, Yukon), using monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data from 2002 to 2016. Together with global land reanalysis, river runoff, and inundation extent area (IEA) data, we identify declining TWS trends throughout the ACTR that we attribute largely to increasing evapotranspiration driven by increasing summer air temperatures. In terms of regional changes, large and significant negative trends in TWS are observed mainly over the North American continent. At basin scale, we show that, in the Lena River basin, the autumnal TWS signal persists until the winter of the following year, while in the Mackenzie River basin, the TWS levels in the autumn and winter has no significant impact on the following year. As global warming is expected to be particularly significant in the northern regions, our results are important for understanding future TWS trends, with possible further decline.

In this research, univariate and bivariate statistical methods were applied to rainfall, river and piezometric level datasets belonging to 24 years long time series (1986-2009). These methods, that often are used to understand the effects of precipitation on rivers and karstic springs discharge, have been used to assess, piezometric level response to rainfall and river level fluctuations in a porous aquifer. A rain gauge, a river level gauge and three wells, located in Central Italy along the lower Pescara river valley in correspondence of its important alluvial aquifer, provided the data. The statistical analysis has been used within a known hydrogeological framework, which has been refined by mean of a photo-interpretation and a GPS survey. Water-groundwater relationships were identified following the autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses; the spectral analysis and mono-fractal features of time series were assessed, in order to provide information on multy-year variability, data distributions, their fractal dimension and the distribution return time within the historical time series. The statistical-mathematical results were interpreted through field work that identified distinct groundwater flowpaths within the aquifer and enabled the implementation of a conceptual model, improving the knowledge on water resources management tools.

Hydrochemical and geophysical data collected during a hydrological survey in September 2017, reveal patterns of small-scale hydrological connectivity in a small water track catchment, north-European Arctic. Elevated tundra patches underlain by sands were disconnected from the stream and stored precipitation water from previous months. At the catchment surface and in the water track thalweg, some circular hollows, from 0.2 to 0.4 m in diameter, acted as evaporative basins with low d-excess values, from 2 to 4‰. Other hollows were connected to shallow subsurface runoff, yielding d-excess values between 12 and 14‰. ‘Connected’ hollows yielded a 50% higher dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content, 17.5±5.3 mg/L, than the ‘disconnected hollows, 11.8±1.7 mg/L. Permafrost distribution across the landscape is continuous, but highly variable. Open taliks exist under fens and small hummocky depressions, as revealed by electric resistivity tomography surveys. Isotopic evidence supports upward subpermafrost groundwater migration through open taliks under water tracks and fens/bogs/depressions, and its supply to streams via shallow sub-surface compartment. Temporal variability of isotopic composition and DOC in water track and a major river system, the Vorkuta R., evidence the widespread occurrence of the described processes in the large river basin. Water tracks effectively drain the tundra terrain and maintain xeric veg-etation over the elevated inter-track tundra patches.

The current study applied a new approach for the interpolation and regionalization of observed precipitation series to a smaller spatial scale (0.125° by 0.125° grid) across the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), with appropriate adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage. The approach is evaluated and validated through reverse hydrology, guided by observed flows and available knowledge base. More specifically, the generated corrected precipitation data is validated by means of SWAT-modelled responses of the observed flows to the different input precipitation series (original and corrected ones). The results show that the SWAT- simulated flows using the corrected, regionalized precipitation series as input are much more in line with the observed flows than those using the uncorrected observed precipitation input for which significant underestimations are obtained.

The traditional sequent peak algorithm (SPA) was used to assess the reservoir volume (VR) for comparison with deficit volume, DT, (subscript T representing the return period) obtained from the drought magnitude (DM) based method with draft level set at the mean annual flow on 15 rivers across Canada. At an annual scale, the SPA based estimates were found to be larger with an average of nearly 70% compared to DM based estimates. To ramp up DM based estimates to be in parity with SPA based values, the analysis was carried out through the counting and the analytical procedures involving only the annual SHI (standardized hydrological index, i.e. standardized values of annual flows) sequences. It was found that MA2 or MA3 (moving average of 2 or 3 consecutive values) of SHI sequences were required to match the counted values of DT to VR. Further, the inclusion of mean, as well as the variance of the drought intensity in the analytical procedure, with aforesaid smoothing led DT comparable to VR. The distinctive point in the DM based method is that no assumption is necessary such as the reservoir being full at the beginning of the analysis - as is the case with SPA.