Activation Functions are crucial parts of the Deep Learning Artificial Neural Networks. From the Biological point of view, a neuron is just a node with many inputs and one output. A neural network consists of many interconnected neurons. It is a “simple” device that receives data at the input and provides a response. The function of neurons is to process and transmit information; the neuron is the basic unit in the nervous system. Carly Vandergriendt (2018) stated the human brain at birth consists of an estimated 100 billion Neurons. The ability of a machine to mimic human intelligence is called Machine Learning. Deep Learning Artificial Neural Networks was designed to work like a human brain with the aid of arbitrary choice of Non-linear Activation Functions. Currently, there is no rule of thumb on the choice of Activation Functions, “Try out different things and see what combinations lead to the best performance”, however, sincerely; the choice of Activation Functions should not be Trial and error. Jamilu (2019) proposed that Activation Functions shall be emanated from AI-ML-Purified Data Set and its choice shall satisfy Jameel’s ANNAF Stochastic and or Deterministic Criterion. The objectives of this paper are to propose instances where Deep Learning Artificial Neural Networks are SUPERINTELLIGENT. Using Jameel’s ANNAF Stochastic and or Deterministic Criterion, the paper proposed four classes where Deep Learning Artificial Neural Networks are Superintelligent namely; Stochastic Superintelligent, Deterministic Superintelligent, and Stochastic-Deterministic 1^st and 2^nd Levels Superintelligence. Also, a Normal Probabilistic-Deterministic case was proposed.

Air sampling using vortex air samplers combined with species specific amplification of pathogen DNA, was carried out over two years in four or five locations in the Salinas Valley of California. The resulting time series data for the abundance of pathogen DNA trapped per day displayed complex dynamics with features of both deterministic (chaotic) and stochastic dynamics. Methods of nonlinear time series analysis developed for the reconstruction of low dimensional attractors provided new insights into the complexity of the pathogen abundance data, but also indicated that practicality may limit the capacity for definitively classifying the dynamics of air borne plant pathogen inoculum. Over the two years of the study five location/year combinations were classified as having stochastic linear dynamics and four were not. Calculation of entropy values for either the number of pathogen DNA copies or for a binary string indicating the pathogen abundance data were increasing or not, revealed (1) some robust differences in the dynamics between seasons that were not obvious in the time series data themselves, and also (2) that the series were almost all at their theoretical maximum entropy value when considered from the simple perspective of whether instantaneous change along the sequence is positive or not.

Here we are concerning with two problems of a coupled system of random and stochastic nonlinear differential equations with two coupled systems of nonlinear nonlocal random and stochastic integral conditions. The existence of solutions will be studied. The sufficient condition for the uniqueness of the solution will be given. The continuous dependence of the unique solution on the nonlocal conditions will be proved.

Most studies modelling population mobility and the spread of infectious diseases, particularly using meta-population-multi-patched models, tend to focus on theoretical properties and numerical simulations of such models. There is relatively scanty literature published on fit, inference and uncertainty quantification on epidemic models with population mobility. In this research, we have used three estimation techniques to solve an inverse problem and quantify its uncertainty on a human mobility-based multi-patched epidemic model, using mobile phone sensing data and COVID-19 confirmed positive cases in Hermosillo, Mexico. First, we have utilized a Brownian bridge model using mobile phone GPS data to estimate residence and mobility parameters of the epidemic model. In the second step, we have estimated the optimal model epidemiological parameters by deterministically inverting the model using a Darwinian inspired evolutionary algorithm (EA) known as the genetic algorithm (GA). The third part of the analysis involves performing inference and uncertainty quantification on the epidemic model using two Bayesian Monte Carlo sampling methods: t-walk and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The results show that the estimated model parameters and incidence adequately fit the observed daily COVID-19 incidence in Hermosillo. Moreover, the estimated parameters from HMC result into large credible intervals, improving their coverage for the observed and predicted daily incidences. We also observe improved predictions when using multi-patch model with mobility against the single-patch model.

This paper proposes a novel deterministic methodology for estimating the optimal sampling frequency (SF) of water quality monitoring systems. The proposed methodology is based on employing two-dimensional contaminant transport simulation models to determine the minimum SF considering all the potential changes in the boundary conditions of a water body. A two-dimensional contaminant transport simulation model (RMA4) was implemented to estimate the distribution patterns of the total dissolved solids (TDS) within the Al-Hammar Marsh in the southern part of Iraq for 30 cases of potential boundary conditions. Using geographical information system (GIS) tools, a spatiotemporal analysis approach was applied to the results of the RMA4 model to determine the minimum SF of the monitoring stations with an accuracy level of detectable change in TDS concentration (ALC) of 5%, 10% and 15%. The proposed methodology specified a minimum and maximum SF for each monitoring station (MS) that ranged between 12 and 33 times per year, respectively. Additionally, increasing the ALC to 10% and 15% increase the minimum SF for some MSs by approximately 18% and 21%, respectively. However, the proposed methodology includes all the potential values and cases of boundary conditions, which increases the certainty of monitoring the system and the efficiency of the SF schedule. Moreover, the proposed methodology can be effectively applied to all types of surface water resources.

We study the deterministic dynamics of N point particles moving at constant speed in a 2D table made of two polygonal urns connected by an active rectangular channel, which applies a feedback-control on the particles, inverting the horizontal component of their velocities, when their number in the channel exceeds a fixed threshold. Such a bounce--back mechanism is non-dissipative: it preserves volumes in phase space. An additional passive channel closes the billiard table forming a circuit in which a stationary current may flow. Under specific constraints on the geometry and on the initial conditions, the large N limit allows nonequilibrium phase transitions between homogeneous and inhomogeneous phases. The role of ergodicity in making a probabilistic theory applicable is discussed both for rational and irrational urns. The theoretical predictions are compared with the numerical simulation results. Connections with the dynamics of feedback-controlled biological systems are highlighted.

The robust control of high precision electromechanical systems, such as micropositioners, is challenging in terms of the inherent high nonlinearity, the sensitivity to external interference, and the complexity of accurate identification of the model parameters. To cope with these problems, this work investigates a disturbance observer-based deep reinforcement learning control strategy to realize high robustness and precise tracking performance. Reinforcement learning has shown great potential as optimal control scheme, however, its application in micropositioning systems is still rare. Therefore, embedded with the integral differential compensator (ID), deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) is utilized in this work with the ability to not only decrease the state error but also improves the transient response speed. In addition, an adaptive sliding mode disturbance observer (ASMDO) is proposed to further eliminate the collective effect caused by the lumped disturbances. The sterling performance is revealed with intensive tracking simulation experiments and demonstrates the improvement in the accuracy and response time of the controller.

Deterministic-stochastic empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to obtain low-frequency (non-diffusive, i.e., background velocity) and high-frequency (diffusive, i.e., eddies) components from a Lagrangian drifter‘s trajectory. Eddy characteristics are determined from the time series of eddy trajectories from individual Lagrangian drifter such as the eddy radial scale, eddy velocity scale, eddy Rossby number, and eddy-background kinetic energy ratio. A long-term dataset of the SOund Fixing And Ranging float time series obtained near the California coast by the Naval Postgraduate School from 1992 to 2004 at depth between 150 and 600 m (http://www.oc.nps.edu/npsRAFOS/) is used as an example to demonstrate the capability of the deterministic-stochastic EMD.

A stochastic dominance (SD) relation can be defined by two different perspectives: One from the view of distributions, and the other one from the view of expected utilities. In early days, Fishburn investigated SD from the view of distributions and we refer this perspective as Fishburn’s SD. One of his many results was the development of fractional-order SD for continuous distributions. However, discrete fractional-order SD may not be generalized directly since some properties of fractional calculus do not have a discrete counterpart. In this paper, we develop a discrete analogue of fractional-order SD from the view of distributions. We generalize the order of SD by Lizama’s fractional delta operator, show the preservation of SD hierarchy, and formulate the utility classes that are congruent with our SD relations. This work brings a message that some results of discrete SD cannot be generalized directly from continuous SD. We characterize the difference between discrete and continuous fractional-order SD, as well as the way to handle them.

The paper is concerned with a class of stochastic differential equations in infinite dimensional Hilbert space with random coefficients driven by Teugel's martingales which are more general processes. and its optimal control problem. Here Teugels martingales are a family of pairwise strongly orthonormal martingales associated with L\'{e}vy processes (see Nualart and Schoutens). There are three major ingredients. The first is to prove the existence and uniqueness of the solutions by continuous dependence theorem of solutions combining with the parameter extension method. The second is to establish the stochastic maximum principle and verification theorem for our optimal control problem by the classicconvex variation method and dual technique.The third is to represent an example of a Cauchy problem for a controlled stochastic partial differential equation driven by Teugels martingales which our theoretical results can solve.

A detailed literature review is performed in this study to address solutions for the full-body design and control of an aerial manipulator. Deep Reinforcement Learning methods are growing to be utilized recently to cope with various uncertainties. The pros and cons of these theories will be explained as well as introducing the advantages of Fuzzy Reinforcement Learning methods. State-of-the-Art, possible challenges, potential approaches, and a summary of desired precision devices are discussed in this study.

This paper describes a stochastic clustering architecture that is used in the paper for making predictions over energy data. The design is discrete, localised optimisations based on similarity, followed by a global aggregating layer, which can be compared with the recent random neural network designs, for example. The topic relates to the IDEAS Smart Home Energy Project, where a client-side Artificial Intelligence component can predict energy consumption for appliances. The proposed data model is essentially a look-up table of the key energy bands that each appliance would use. Each band represents a level of consumption by the appliance. This table can replace disaggregation from more complicated methods, usually constructed from probability theory, for example. Results show that the table can accurately disaggregate a single source to a set of appliances, because each appliance has quite a unique energy footprint. As part of predicting energy consumption, the model could possibly reduce costs by 50% and more than that if the proposed schedules are also included. The hyper-grid has been changed to consider rows as single units, making it more tractable. A second case study considers wind power patterns, where the grid optimises over the dataset columns in a self-similar way to the rows, allowing for some level of feature analysis.

We address the process of discounting in random environments which allows to value the far future in economic terms. We review several approaches to the problem regarding different well-established stochastic market dynamics in the continuous-time context and include the Feynman-Kac approach. We also review the relation between bond pricing theory and discount and introduce the market price of risk and the risk neutral measures from an intuitive point of view devoid of excessive formalism. We provide the discount for each economic model and discuss their key results. We finally present a summary of our previous empirical studies on several countries of the long-run discount problem.

An increase of seismic activity is often observed before large earthquakes. Events responsible for this increase are usually named foreshock and their occurrence probably represents the most reliable precursory pattern. Many foreshocks statistical features can be interpreted in terms of the standard mainshock-to-aftershock triggering process and are recovered in the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ETAS model. Here we present a statistical study of instrumental seismic catalogs from four different geographic regions. We focus on some common features of foreshocks in the four catalogs which cannot be reproduced by the ETAS model. In particular we find in instrumental catalogs a significantly larger number of foreshocks than the one predicted by the ETAS model. We show that this foreshock excess cannot be attributed to catalog incompleteness. We therefore propose a generalized formulation of the ETAS model, the ETAFS model, which explicitly includes foreshock occurrence. Statistical features of aftershocks and foreshocks in the ETAFS model are in very good agreement with instrumental results.

Partial differential representation of self-similarity feature has been derived from notion of the homogenous function in general sense. This representation allows consideration of stochastic self-similar systems. As well as the partial differential representation allows consideration of Stochastic Partial Differential Equation.

Wireless energy harvesting (EH) communication has long been considered a sustainable networking solution. However, it has been limited in efficiency, which has been a major obstacle. Recently, strategies such as energy relaying and borrowing have been explored to overcome these difficulties and provide long-range wireless sensor connectivity. In this article, we examine the reliability of the wireless-powered communication network by maximizing the net bit rate. To accomplish our goal, we focus on enhancing the performance of hybrid access points and information sources by optimizing their transmit power. Additionally, we aim to maximize the use of harvested energy by energy-harvesting relays for both information transmission and energy relaying. However, this optimization problem is complex as it involves non-convex variables and requires combinatorial relay selection indicators optimization for decode and forward (DF) relaying. To simplify this problem, we utilize the Markov decision process and deep reinforcement learning framework based on the deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm. This approach enables us to tackle this non-tractable problem, which conventional convex optimisation techniques would be difficult to solve in complex problem environments. The proposed algorithm significantly improves the end-to-end net bit rate of the smart energy borrowing and relaying EH system by 13.22%,27.57%, and 14.12% compared to the benchmark algorithm based on borrowing energy with an adaptive reward for Quadrature Phase Shift Keying, 8-PSK, and 16-Quadrature amplitude modulation schemes, respectively.

With correct dynamic system parameters (embodied in self-awareness statements), a controller can provide precise signals for tracking desired state trajectories. If dynamic system parameters are initially guessed incorrectly, a learning method may be used to find the correct parameters. In the deterministic artificial intelligence method, self-awareness statements are formed as mathematical expressions of the governing physics. When the nonlinear, coupled expressions are precisely parameterized as the product of known matrix components and unknown victrix (i.e., a regression form) tracking errors may be projected onto the known matrix to update the unknown victrix in an optimal form (in a two-norm sense). In this work, a modified learning method is proposed and proved to have global convergence of both state error and parameter estimation error. The modified learning method is compared with those in the prequels using simulation experiments of three-dimensional rigid body dynamic rotation motion. The modified approach is two magnitudes better than the methods in the prequels in terms of state error convergence.

This article analyses entropy changes triggered by specific events in deterministic and indeterministic systems. Article considers a simple model consisting of water in a cuvette, an ice cube in the device above the cuvette and a random number generator (RNG) that controls the probability of dropping the ice into water. Article introduces the entropic potential Z(T, A) of an event A occurred in a system R at the moment Т₀, which describes the influence of the event A to the entropy of the system R in the future (for the moments T>Т₀). The entropic potential of an event Z(T,A) can be calculated as the difference between the mathematical expectations of entropy of the system R for the moment T (T>Т₀) made immediately before and immediately after the event A as Z(T, A) = Ŝ_T(Т₀+dT) - Ŝ_T(Т₀-dT). Article also presents examples of calculations of the entropic potentials of events in indeterministic systems with different probabilities of events. Since real-life systems are mostly indeterministic, the entropic potentials of events in real-life usually have non-zero values. The entropic potentials of the events "useful" for the system are negative, and entropic potentials of the events "harmful" for the system are positive.

Fractals and multifractals are well-known trademarks of nonlinear dynamics and classical chaos. The goal of this work is to tentatively uncover the unforeseen path from multifractals and selfsimilarity to the framework of effective field theory (EFT). An intriguing finding is that the partition function of multifractal geometry includes a signature analogous to that of gravitational interaction. Our results also suggest that multifractal geometry may offer insights into the non-renormalizable interactions presumed to develop beyond the Standard Model scale.

The Universe, rather than being homogeneous, displays an almost infinite topological genus, because it is punctured with a countless number of gravitational vortexes, i.e., black holes. Starting from this view, we aim to show that the occurrence of black holes is constrained by geometric random walks taking place during cosmic inflationary expansion. At first, we introduce a visual model, based on the Pascal’s triangle and linear and nonlinear arithmetic octahedrons, which describes three-dimensional cosmic random walks. In case of nonlinear 3D paths, trajectories in an expanding Universe can be depicted as the operation of filling the numbers of the octahedrons in the form of “islands of numbers”: this leads to separate cosmic structures (standing for matter/energy), spaced out by empty areas (constituted by black holes and dark matter). These procedures allow us to describe the topology of an universe of infinite genus, to assess black hole formation in terms of infinite Betti numbers, to highlight how non-linear random walks might provoke gravitational effects also in absence of mass/energy, and to propose a novel interpretation of Beckenstein-Hawking entropy: it is proportional to the surface, rather than the volume, of a black hole, because the latter does not contain information.

A novel reinforcement learning deep deterministic policy gradient agent-based sliding mode control (DDPG-SMC) approach is proposed to suppress the chattering phenomenon in the attitude control for quadrotors, in the presence of external disturbances. First, the attitude dynamics model of the studied quadrotor is derived and the attitude control problem is described by formulas. Second, a sliding mode controller including its sliding mode surface and reaching law is selected for the nonlinear dynamic system, and the stability of the designed SMC system is supported by Lyapunov stability theorem. Third, a reinforcement learning (RL) agent based on deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) is trained to adjust the switching control gain adaptively. During the training process, the input signals of agent are the actual and desired attitude angles, and the output action is the time-varying control gain. Finally, the above trained agent is applied to the SMC as a parameter regulator, to implement the adaptive adjustment of the switching control gain related to reaching law, and the simulation results verify the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed DDPG-SMC method.

The rapid growth of equipment tasks in 5G large-scale machine-type communication scenarios presents challenges due to user equipment’s (UE) limited computing power and power constraints. To address these limitations, task offloading to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has gained attention. However, traditional cloud computing centres far from the UE fail to meet latency requirements. Mobile Edge Computing (MEC) emerges as a solution by deploying computing servers at the edge of the cellular network to enhance service responsiveness. However, traditional MEC solutions need more flexibility. This paper explores the advantages of UAVs, including flexibility and rapid deployment, and considers UAV power constraints. It proposes a joint optimization approach for user offloading strategies and UAV trajectories to minimize the overall energy consumption of UE. By leveraging the benefits of UAVs and MEC, the proposed method aims to improve task execution efficiency in energy-constrained 5G machine-type communication scenarios.

Multi-level direct networks fueled by the evolving technology of active optical cables and increasing pin-bandwidth achieve reduced diameters and cost, with high-radix switches. These networks, like Dragonfly, are becoming the preferred aspirants for extreme high-performance parallel machines such as exa-scale computing. In this paper, we introduce a Hyper Z-Tree topology, which deploys the Z-Tree, a variant of fat-tree, as a computing node of a Generalized Hypercube (GHC) configuration. The resulting configuration provides higher bisection bandwidth, lower latency for some applications and higher throughput. Furthermore, the levels of the fat tree offer several path diversities across the GHC dimensions, hence conceding a more fault tolerant architecture. To profit from these path diversities, we propose two adaptive routing algorithms, which are extensions to the routing algorithm suggested in HyperX topology. These two algorithms exhibit better latencies and throughput than the HyperX.

The generalization of Farey graphs and extended Farey graphs are all originated from Farey graph and scale-free and small-world simultaneously. We propose a labeling of the vertices for it that allows determining all the shortest paths routing between any two vertices only based on their labels. The maximum number of shortest paths between any two vertices is huge as the product of two Fibonacci numbers, however, the label-based routing algorithm runs in linear time O(n). The existence of an efficient routing protocol for Farey-type models should help the understanding of several physical dynamic processes on it.

The world’s human population is reaching record longevities. Consequently, our societies are experiencing the impacts of prolonged longevity, such as increased retirement age. A major hypothesised influence on ageing patterns is resource limitation, formalised under calorie restriction theory. This theory predicts extended organismal longevity due to reduced calorie intake without malnutrition. However, several challenges face current calorie restriction (CR) research and, although several attempts have been made to overcome these challenges, there is still a lack of holistic understanding of how CR shapes organismal vitality. Here, we conduct a literature review of 222 CR peer-reviewed publications to summarise the state-of-the-art in the field. We use this summary to highlight challenges of CR research in our understanding of its impacts on longevity. Our review demonstrates that experimental research in this field is biased towards short-lived species (98.2% of studies examine species with <5 years of mean life expectancy) and lacks realism in key areas, such as stochastic environments or interactions with other environmental drivers such as temperature. We argue that only by considering a range of short- and long-lived species and by taking more realistic approaches can the impacts of CR on longevity be examined and validated in natural settings. We conclude by proposing experimental designs and study species that will allow the discipline to gain a much-needed understanding of how restricting caloric intake affects long-lived species in realistic settings. Through incorporating more experimental realism, we anticipate crucial insights that will ultimately shape the myriad of socio-bio-economic impacts of senescence in humans and other species across the Tree of Life.

The prediction of capacity degradation, and more generally of the behaviors related to battery aging, is useful in the design and use phases of a battery to help improve the efficiency and reliability of energy systems. In this paper, a stochastic model for the prediction of battery cell degradation is presented. The proposed model takes its cue from an approach based on Markov chains, although it is not comparable to a Markov process, as the transition probabilities vary as the number of cycles that the cell has performed varies. The proposed model can reproduce the abrupt decrease in the capacity that occurs near the end of life condition (80% of the nominal value of the capacity) for the cells analyzed. Furthermore, we illustrate the ability of this model to predict the capacity trend for a lithium-ion cell with nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) at the cathode and graphite at the anode subjected to a life cycle in which there are different aging factors, using the results obtained for cells subjected to single aging factors.

The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading and has caused a large-scale infection in China since December 2019. Thefirst infected person was declared on March 18, 2020 in Djibouti. This has led to a signicant impact on the lives and economy in Djibouti and other countries. In this study, we propose a double compartment stochastic model which describes the evolution of the infection rate and the evolution of the number of infected in the period from May 20 to June 23, 2020. We will also propose the evolution of people infected in two states, recovered and deceased.

We propose a model for medium-term hydropower scheduling (MTHS) with variable head and uncertainty in inflow, reserve capacity, and energy price. With an increase of intermittent energy sources in the generation mix, it is expected that a flexible hydropower producer can obtain added profits by participating in other markets than just the energy market. To capture this added potential the hydropower system should be modeled with a higher level of details. In this context, we apply an algorithm based on stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) to solve the nonconvex MTHS problem, and show that the use of Strengthened Benders (SB) cuts to represent the expected future profit (EFP) function provide accurate scheduling results for slightly nonconvex problems. A method to visualize the EFP function in a dynamic programming setting is provided, serving as a useful tool for a priori inspection of the EFP shape and its nonconvexity.

We introduce a novel stochastically correlated two-factor (i.e., bivariate) diffusion process under the square-root format, for which we obtained, analytically, the corresponding solutions for the conditional moment generating functions and conditional characteristic functions. Such solutions recover verbatim those of the uncorrelated case. We believe that the The aforementioned model encompasses a range of processes similar to that produced by a bivariate square-root process in which entries are correlated in the standard way, i.e., via a constant correlation coefficient. Note that, for the latter, closed-form solutions for the conditional characteristic functions are not available. We focus on the financial scenario of obtaining closed-form expressions for the exact price of a zero-coupon bond and Asian option prices via a Fourier cosine series method.

In this paper, we investigate some kind of Dynkin game under $g$-expectation induced by backward stochastic differential equation (shortly for BSDE). We define the lower and upper value functions $\underline{V}_t=ess\sup\limits_{\tau\in{\mathcal{T}_t}} ess\inf\limits_{\sigma\in{\mathcal{T}_t}}\mathcal{E}^g_t[R(\tau,\sigma)]$ and $\overline{V}_t=ess\inf\limits_{\sigma\in{\mathcal{T}_t}}ess\sup\limits_{\tau\in{\mathcal{T}_t}}\mathcal{E}^g_t[R(\tau,\sigma)]$, respectively. Under some regular assumptions, a pair of saddle point is obtained and the value function of Dynkin game $V(t)=\underline{V}_t=\overline{V}_t$ follows. Furthermore, the constrained case of Dynkin game is also considered.

The classical Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model is globally stable and uniformly persistent. However, in real-life biosystems extinction of species due to stochastic effects is possible. In this paper, we consider the classical Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model under stochastic perturbations. For this model, using an analytical technique based on the direct Lyapunov method and a development of the ideas of R.Z. Khasminskii, we find the precise sufficient conditions for the stochastic extinction of one and both species and the precise necessary conditions for the stochastic system persistence. The stochastic extinction occurs via a process known as the stabilization by noise of the Khasminskii type, and, in order to establish the sufficient conditions for extinction, we found the conditions for the stabilization. The analytical results are illustrated by numerical simulations. {\bf Keywords:} stochastic perturbations, white noise, Ito's stochastic differential equation, the Lyapunov functions method, stability in probability, stabilization by noise, stochastic extinction, persistence.

In a recent article, the author derived a new generalized Langevin equation and its associated Fokker-Planck equation of a Brownian particle in a parabolic potential where the thermal bath, consisting of $N$ harmonic oscillators, interacts bilinearly with the external field. The time needed for the system to reach a steady state is longer than that for the classical version where such an interaction is off. We find that there is a marked effect of the field-bath interaction on the average heat and entropy production of the bath represented through strong oscillations in such properties. The new theory applied to the system should improve the physical description of previous works done with the classical approach.

A multiscale modeling concept for numerical simulation of multiphysics turbulent flow utilizing map-based advection is described. The approach is outlined with emphasis on its theoretical foundations and physical interpretations in order to establish the context for subsequent presentation of the associated numerical algorithms and the results of validation studies. The model formulation is a synthesis of existing methods, modified and extended in order to obtain a qualitatively new capability. The salient feature of the approach is that time advancement of the flow is fully resolved both spatially and temporally, albeit with modeled advancement processes restricted to one spatial dimension. This one-dimensional advancement is the basis of a bottom-up modeling approach in which three-dimensional space is discretized into under-resolved mesh cells, each of which contains an instantiation of the modeled one-dimensional advancement. Filtering is done only to provide inputs to a pressure correction that enforces continuity and to obtain mesh-scale-filtered outputs if desired. The one-dimensional advancement, the pressure correction, and coupling of one-dimensional instantiations using a Lagrangian implementation of mesh-resolved volume fluxes is sufficient to advance the three-dimensional flow without time advancing coarse-grained equations, a feature that motivates the designation of the approach as autonomous microscale evolution (AME). In this sense, the one-dimensional treatment is not a closure because there are no unclosed terms to evaluate. However, the approach is additionally suitable for use as a subgrid-scale closure of existing large-eddy-simulation methods. The potential capabilities and limitations of both of these implementations of the approach are assessed conceptually and with reference to demonstrated capabilities of related methods.

Applications in high-performance computing (HPC) may not use all available computational resources, leaving some of them underutilized. By co-scheduling, i.e. running more than one application on the same computational node, it is possible to improve resource utilization and overall throughput. Some applications may have conflicting requirements on resources and co-scheduling may cause performance degradation, so it is important to take it into account in scheduling decisions. In this paper, we formalized co-scheduling problem and proposed multiple scheduling strategies to solve it: an optimal strategy, an online strategy and heuristic strategies. These strategies vary in terms of the optimality of the solution they produce and a priori information about the system they require. We showed theoretically that the online strategy provides schedules with a competitive ratio that has a constant upper limit. This allowed us to solve the co-scheduling problem using heuristic strategies that approximate this online strategy. Numerical simulations showed how heuristic strategies compare to the optimal strategy for different input systems. We proposed a method for measuring input parameters of the model in practice and evaluated this method on HPC benchmark applications. We showed high accuracy of measurement method, which allows to apply proposed scheduling strategies in scheduler implementation.

Based on a previous risk calculation study along a road corridor, risk is recalculated using stochastic simulation by introducing variability for most of the parameters in the risk equation. This leads to an exceedance curve comparable to that of catastrophe models. This approach introduces uncertainty into the risk calculation in a simple way, which can be used for poorly documented cases to fulfil lack of data. This approach seems to tend to minimize risk or to question risk calculations.

A Robust Optimization framework with original concepts and fundamentals also admitting a fusion of ideals from relative regret models and static robust optimization, containing conservatism concepts is disclosed. The algorithm uses a fine-tune strategy to tune the model so the robustness and a target ideality can be mutually achieved with a specified risk. The framework comprises original concepts, a mathematical approach and an algorithm. The statistical treatment of the data with the original concepts from the framework make it able to make short, middle or long-term decision-making setting. The framework has high tractability since the algorithm forces the creation of a setting that makes a robust optimization with the specified risk. The framework can be applied in linear and nonlinear mathematical models since that the objective function is monotonic in the domain of the active convex region. Several examples are solved to best understand the framework and all results demonstrated high tractability and performance. There is a wide range of applications. Along all the text, there is a profound discussion about its philosophy, objective, original concepts, fields of application, statistical and probabilistic fundamentals.

Due to the intermittency and fluctuation of photovoltaic (PV) output power, a high proportion of grid-connected PV power generation systems has a significant impact on power systems. Accurate PV power forecasting can alleviate the uncertainty of the PV power and is of great significance for the stable operation and scheduling of the power systems. Therefore, in this study, a feature rise-dimensional (FRD) two-layer ensemble learning (TLEL) model for short-term PV power deterministic forecasting and probability forecasting is proposed. First， based on the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), CatBoost, and Long-short-term memory (LSTM) models, a TLEL model is constructed utilizing the ensemble learning algorithm. Meanwhile, the FRD method is introduced to construct the FRD-XGBoost-LSTM (R-XGBL), FRD-RF-LSTM(R-RFL), and FRD- CatBoost - LSTM (R-CatBL) models. Subsequently, the above models are combined to construct the FRD-TLEL model for deterministic forecasting, and perform probability interval forecasting based on quantile regression(QR). Finally, the performance of the proposed model is demonstrated with a real-world dataset. By comparing with other models, the proposed model displays better forecasting accuracy for deterministic forecasting and reliable forecasting intervals for probability forecasting, and good generalization ability in the datasets of different seasons and weather types.

We outline and test a new methodology for genuine simulation of stochastic processes with any dependence and any marginal distribution. We reproduce time dependence with a generalized, time symmetric or asymmetric, moving-average scheme. This implements linear filtering of non-Gaussian white noise, with the weights of the filter determined by analytical equations in terms of the autocovariance of the process. We approximate the marginal distribution of the process, irrespective of its type, using a number of its cumulants, which in turn determine the cumulants of white noise in a manner that can readily support the generation of random numbers from that approximation, so that it be applicable for stochastic simulation. The simulation method is genuine as it uses the process of interest directly without any transformation (e.g. normalization). We illustrate the method in a number of synthetic and real-world applications with either persistence or antipersistence, and with non-Gaussian marginal distributions that are bounded, thus making the problem more demanding. These include distributions bounded from both sides, such as uniform, and bounded form below, such as exponential and Pareto, possibly having a discontinuity at the origin (intermittence). All examples studied show the satisfactory performance of the method.

The distribution laws of various natural and anthropogenic processes in the world around us are stochastic in nature. The development of mathematics and, in particular, of stochastic modelling allows us to study regularities in such processes. In practice, stochastic modelling finds a huge number of applications in various fields, including finance and economics. In this work, some particular applications of stochastic processes in finance are examined in the conditions of financial crisis. More specifically, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Modified Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) models, which have been previously developed by the authors to predict assets’ prices of four Bulgarian companies, are validated on a time period during the crisis. Estimated rates of return are calculated from the models for one period ahead. The errors are estimated and the models are compared. The predicted return values with each of the two approaches are used to derive optimal risk portfolios based on the Markowitz Model. The resulting portfolios are compared in terms of distribution (weights of the stocks), risk and rate of return.

It is known that the source of a tectonic earthquake in the framework of the theory of elasticity and viscoelasticity is considered as a displacement along a certain fault surface. Usually, when describing the source, the geometry of the fault surface is simplified to a flat rectangular area. The displacement vector is assumed to be constant. In this paper, we propose a model of an earthquake source in the form of a displacement with a constant vector along a stochastic surface. A number of standard assumptions were made when modeling. We take into account only the elastic properties of the medium. We consider the Earth’s crust as a half-space and assume that the medium is homogeneous and isotropic. For the mathematical description of the earthquake source, we use the classical force equivalent of displacement along the fault. This is the distribution of double pairs of forces. The field of displacements under the action of body forces is found through a combination of Mindlin nuclei of strain. The paper presents solutions for strike-slip fault. To obtain a stochastic fault surface, we propose to introduce a random deformation of a rectangular flat surface. The paper presents the results of a computational experiment comparing the levels and regions of relative deformations of the Earth’s crust in the case of displacement along a flat rupture surface and along a stochastic one. In the case of a stochastic surface, the regions of relative deformations become asymmetric. The developed model will help to indirectly take into account various mechanical properties of the Earth’s crust when modeling deformations caused by earthquakes.

Polynomial recurrence bounds for a class of stochastic differential equations with a gradient type drift and an additive Wiener process are studied without Lyapunov functions.

Porous materials can be characterized by well-trained neural networks. In this study, fibrous paper-type gas diffusion layers were trained with artificial data created by a stochastic geometry model. The features of the data were calculated by means of transport simulations using the Lattice–Boltzmann method based on stochastic micro-structures. A convolutional neural network was developed that can predict the permeability and tortuosity of the material, through-plane and in-plane. The characteristics of real data, both uncompressed and compressed, were predicted. The data was represented by reconstructed images of different sizes and image resolutions. Image artifacts are also a source of potential errors in the prediction. The Kozeny–Carman trend was used to evaluate the prediction of permeability and tortuosity of compressed real data. Using this method, it was possible to decide if the predictions on compressed data were appropriate.

Nonlinear electrodynamics with two dimensional parameters is studied. The range of electromagnetic fields when principles of causality, unitarity and the classical stability hold are obtained. A singularity of the electric field at the center of charges is absent within our model and there are corrections to the Coulomb law as $r\rightarrow\infty$. The universe inflation takes place in the background of stochastic magnetic fields. The second stage of the universe evolution is the radiation era so that the graceful exit exists. We estimated the spectral index, the tensor-to-scalar ratio, and the running of the spectral index that are in an approximate agreement with the PLANK and WMAP data.

This study has developed a Matlab application for simulating statistical models project (SMp) probabilistic distributions that are similar to binomial and Poisson, which were created by mathematical procedures. The simulated distributions are graphically compared with these popular distributions. The application allows to obtain many probabilistic distributions, and shows the trend (τ ) for n trials with success probability p, i.e. the maximum probability as τ=np. While the Poisson distribution PD(x;µ) is a unique probabilistic distribution, where PD=0 in x=+∞, the application simulates many SMp(x;µ,Xmax) distributions, where µ is the Poisson parameter and value of x with generally the maximum probability, and Xmax is the upper limit of x with SMp(x;µ,Xmax) ≥ 0 and limit of the stochastic region of a random discrete variable. It is shown that by simulation via, one can get many and better probabilistic distributions than by mathematical one.

This study has developed a Matlab application for simulating statistical models project (SMp) probabilistic distributions that are similar to binomial and Poisson, which were created by mathematical procedures. The simulated distributions are graphically compared with these legendary distributions. The application allows to obtain many probabilistic distributions, and shows the trend (τ ) for n trials with success probability p, i.e. the maximum probability as τ=np. While the Poisson distribution PD(x;µ) is a unique probabilistic distribution, where PD=0 in x=+∞, the application simulates many SMp(x;µ,Xmax) distributions, where µ is the Poisson parameter and value of x with generally the maximum probability, and Xmax is upper limit of x with SMp(x;µ,Xmax) ≥ 0 and limit of the stochastic region of the random discrete variable X. It is shown that by simulation via, one can get many and better probabilistic distributions than by mathematical one.

In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model based on the association between susceptible and recovered individual, where the association between susceptible and recovered individual is disturbed by white noise. This model is based on demographic changes and is used for long term behavior. We study the stability of equilibria of the deterministic model and prove the conditions for the extinction of diseases. Then, we investigate and obtain the critical condition of the stochastic epidemic model for the extinction and the permanence in mean of the disease with the white noise. To verify our results, we present some numerical simulations for real data related to disease.

We apply the stochastic thermodynamics formalism to describe the dynamics of systems of complex Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations. We provide in particular a simple and general recipe to calculate thermodynamical currents, dissipated and propagating heat for networks of nonlinear oscillators. By using the Hodge decomposition of thermodynamical forces and fluxes, we derive a formula for entropy production that generalises the notion of non-potential forces and makes transparent the breaking of detailed balance and of time reversal symmetry for states arbitrarily far from equilibrium. Our formalism is then applied to describe the off-equilibrium thermodynamics of a few examples, notably a continuum ferromagnet, a network of classical spin-oscillators and the Frenkel-Kontorova model of nano friction.

This study analyzed the technical efficiency of barley production by smallholder farmers in Meket district, Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia. A cross sectional data from a sample of 123 barley producers during the 2016/17 production season was collected by applying two stage random sampling. To address the objective of the study, both descriptive statistics and econometric models were used to analyze the data. The trans-log functional form of the production function simultaneously with single stage estimation approach was used to estimate the production of barley output and technical inefficiency factors. The estimated stochastic production frontier model indicated that input variables such as fertilizer, human labor and oxen power were the significant variables to increase the quantity of barley output while, barley seed had a negative effect. The estimated mean levels of technical efficiency of the sample farmers were about 70.9% which revealed that, presence of a room to increase their technical efficiency level on average by 29.1% with the existing resources. The discrepancy ratio gamma indicated that 63% of the total variation from the frontier comes due to technical inefficiency while, the remaining 37% comes due to factors outside the control of farmers. Among the hypothesized factors that affect technical inefficiency; education level, extension contact and number of barley plots significantly and negatively affected technical inefficiency score. Besides, practice of crop rotation, distance of residence from the nearest main market, total expenditure and soil fertility was found to have a positive and significant effect. Hence, emphasis should be given to decrease the inefficiency level of those more inefficient farm households via experience sharing among the farmers and usage of improved or certified barley seed. Besides to this, policies and strategies of the government should be directed towards increasing farmers’ education, improve the system of input distributions and institutional facilities.

Optimal dividend payment under a ruin constraint is a two objective control problem which—in simple models—can be solved numerically by three essentially different methods. One is based on a modified Bellman equation and the policy improvement method (see Hipp C., 2003). In this paper we use explicit formulas for running allowed ruin probabilities which avoid a complete search and speed up and simplify the computation. The second is also a policy improvement method, but without the use of a dynamic equation (see Hipp C., 2003). It is based on closed formulas for first entry probabilities and discount factors for the time until first entry (see Hipp C., 2016). Third a new, faster and more intuitive method which uses appropriately chosen barrier levels and a closed formula for the corresponding dividend value. Using the running allowed ruin probabilities, a simple test for admissibility—concerning the ruin constraint—is given. All these methods work for the discrete De Finetti model and are applied in a numerical example. The non stationary Lagrange multiplier method suggested in (see Hipp C., 2016), Section 2.2.2 does also yield optimal dividend strategies which differ from those in all other methods, and Lagrange gaps are present here. These gaps always exist in De Finetti models, see (see Hipp C., 2017).

Many species of plants are found in regions to which they are alien. Their global distributions are characterised by a family of exponential functions of the kind that arise in elementary statistical mechanics (an example in ecology is MacArthur's broken stick). We show here that all these functions are quantitatively reproduced by a model containing a single parameter – some global resource partitioned at random on the two axes of species number and site number. A dynamical model generating this equilibrium is a two fold stochastic process and suggests a curious and interesting biological interpretation in terms of niche structures fluctuating with time and productivity; with sites and species highly idiosyncratic. Idiosyncrasy implies that attempts to identify a priori those species likely to become naturalized are unlikely to be successful. Although this paper is primarily concerned with a particular problem in population biology, the two fold stochastic process may be of more general interest.

This paper aimed to assess the technical efficiency of maize seed production and the major factors contributing on technical efficiency. Maize is the second most important staple crop in Nepal, but the average yield of maize is very low as compared to other countries having similar agro-climatic requirements. Inefficient use of resources had led to low yield in maize crop. The software Raosoft was used to determine the required sample size and total of 182 samples were selected using simple random technique in June, 2016. Stochastic production frontier model and Tobit model were used to derive the results. The average technical efficiency of maize seed production ranged from 0.25-0.92 with an average of 0.71which revealed the scope of increasing technical efficiency by 29 percent. The majority of the farmers (29.1%) were at higher technical efficiency level of 0.8-0.9 followed by 28.6 percent at 0.7-0.8 and 23.1 percent at 0.6-0.7. Age and schooling of household head, experience on maize seed production, area shared by maize crop and dummies variables such as livestock holding, source of seed and access to extension service had found significantly affecting on the technical efficiency level. For the least developed country like Nepal it would be better to use the available resources wisely and improvement of existing technologies would be more cost effective than that of discovering new technologies. The study recommended that the concerned organizations should focus on mixed agricultural farming system, access to better quality seed and provide technical knowledge which would help in improving technical efficiency.

The main issue in this work is to study limit functions necessary for the reliability assessment of the structural steel with the use of the relative entropy apparatus. This would be done using a few different mathematical theories relevant to this relative entropy, namely those proposed by Bhattacharyya, Kullback-Leibler, Jeffreys, and Hellinger. Probabilistic analysis in the presence of uncertainty in material characteristics would be delivered using three different numerical strategies – Monte-Carlo simulation, stochastic perturbation method as well as the semi-analytical approach. All these methods are based on the Weighted Least Squares Method approximations of the structural response functions versus the given uncertainty source and they would allow efficient determination of the first two probabilistic moments of the structural responses including stresses, displacements, and strains. The entire computational implementation would be delivered using the Finite Element Method system ABAQUS and computer algebra program MAPLE, where relative entropies, as well as polynomial response functions, would be determined. This study would demonstrate that the relative entropies may be efficiently used in reliability assessment close to the widely engaged First Order Reliability Method (FORM).

The transportation industry is rapidly transitioning from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) based vehicles to Electric Vehicles (EVs) to promote clean energy. However, large-scale adoption of EVs can compromise the reliability of the power grids by introducing large uncertainty in the demand. Demand response with a controlled charge scheduling strategy for EVs can mitigate such issues. In this paper, a deep reinforcement learning- based charge scheduling strategy is developed for individual EVs by considering user’s dynamic driving behavior and charging preferences. The temporal dynamics of user’s anxiety about charging the EV battery is rigorously addressed. A dynamic weight allocation technique is applied to continuously tune user’s priority for charging and cost-saving with respect to charging duration. The sequential charging control problem is formulated as a Markov decision process, and an episodic approach to the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) algorithm with target policy smoothing and delayed policy update techniques is applied to develop the optimal charge scheduling strategy. A real-world dataset that captures user’s driving behavior, such as arrival time, departure time, and charging duration, is utilized in this study. The extensive simulation results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in minimizing energy cost while satisfying user’s charging requirements.

Integrating numerous renewable resources has been extensively researched and studied to create a dependable energy system. This study investigated the best techno-economical hybrid energy system configuration while using hydrogen energy to keep the system's energy balanced. Additionally, this study aims to determine the best hybrid system configuration for the location under investigation. A novel technique of DBM (Deterministic Balanced Method) was introduced to determine the total annual energy output for the project's lifetime. This approach is used to contrast the outcomes of other HOMER software tools. Then, using HOMER, it is possible to confirm the sizing optimization results for the suggested method by comparing the power ratings and yearly energy output. A detailed comparison between our proposed method and HOMER Pro has been conducted for validation and verification. Our method has been rigorously tested in various hybrid off-grid energy systems, ensuring its applicability and reliability across different scenarios and configurations. The results of our study indicate a high degree of similarity between the proposed approach and HOMER pro for computing annual energy power for the studied energy systems. Specifically, our analysis revealed that the difference between the approaches was within a range of 5%, indicating a high level of consistency and reliability in our method. These findings suggest that our approach can be confidently applied to determine the appropriate size of hybrid energy systems accurately. Overall, our study provides valuable insights into the development of effective sizing methodologies for hybrid energy systems. After considering the amount of solar radiation and wind speed gathered by global weather data platforms like NASA and METEONORM, this paper has also included a real case study of the Cairo International Airport's hybrid renewable energy production systems. To guarantee the viability of this study, the system design was founded on an actual load that was researched and simulated. A cluster of distributed networks was finally proposed to use the excess energy and enable energy conversion processes to be used in industry and transportation applications.

In this article we explore the limiting behavior of the universal prior distribution obtained when applied over multiple meta-level hierarchy of programs and output data of a computational automata model. We were motivated to alleviate the effect of Solomonoff's assumption that all computable functions or hypotheses of the same length are equally likely, by weighing each program in turn by the algorithmic probability of their description number encoding. In the limiting case, the set of all possible program strings of a fixed-length converges to a distribution of self-replicating quines and quine-relays - having the structure of a constructor. We discuss how experimental algorithmic information theory provides insights towards understanding the fundamental metrics proposed in this work and reflect on the significance of these result in digital physics and the constructor theory of life.

Several mathematicians and physicists are working all over the globe to get a unified theory. However, most of them are discarding Einstein’s view at the very first step of their theories. This article provides a brief description about this. Also, on the basis of Koga’s theory we point out two reasons which might have caused Einstein’s failure to get a unified theory.

The ubiquitous connectivity for the space-air-ground integrated network (SAGIN) of the beyond fifth generation of communication and sixth generation of communication (B5G/6G) is envisaged to meet the needs for the demanded quality of service (QoS), green communication, and "dual carbon" target. However, the offloading and computation of massive latency-sensitive tasks dramatically increases the energy consumption of the network. Furthermore, the traditional power supply technology of the network base stations (BSs) enhances the carbon emission. To address these issues, we first propose a SAGIN architecture with energy harvesting devices, where the BS is powered by both renewable energy (RE) and the conventional grid. The BS explores wireless power transfer (WPT) technology to power the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for stable network operation. RE sharing between neighbouring BSs is designed to fully utilize RE for reduce carbon emission. Secondly, on the basis of task offloading decision, UAV trajectory, and RE sharing ratio, we construct cost functions with joint latency-oriented, energy consumption, and carbon emission. Then, we develop a twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (TD3PG) algorithm based on deep reinforcement learning to minimize the cost function. Finally, simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the benchmark algorithm in terms of reducing latency, energy saving, and lower carbon emission.

The robust fusion estimation problem of a multi-sensor system with communication constraints, random packet drops, d-step state delays, and deterministic control inputs is investigated. The state augmentation method is used to transform the time delay system into a non-time delay system, and then a robust fusion estimation algorithm based on sensitivity penalty is proposed and the pseudo-cross-covariance matrix is updated. An event-triggered robust fusion estimator with state delay and deterministic control inputs is considered to make the model closer to reality while effectively reducing network congestion and lowering communication costs. Conditions are given to ensure that the estimation errors of the robust fusion estimator are uniform boundedness. Two sets of numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the derived fusion estimator.

In the era of electrification and artificial intelligence, direct current motors are widely utilized with numerous innovative adaptive and learning methods. Traditional methods utilize model-based algebraic techniques with system identification, such as recursive least squares, extended least squares, and autoregressive moving averages. The new method known as deterministic artificial intelligence asserts physical-based process dynamics to achieve target trajectory tracking. There are two common autonomous trajectory generation algorithms: sinusoidal function and Pontryagin's based generation algorithm. This thesis aims to simulate model-following and deterministic artificial intelligence methods using sinusoidal and Pontryagin's methods and compare their performance difference when following challenging step function slew maneuver.

Discretization is the process of converting a continuous function or model or equation into discrete steps. In this work, adaptive and learning methods are implemented to control DC motors that are used for actuating control surfaces of unmanned underwater vehicles. Adaptive control is a method in which the controller is designed to adapt the system with parameters which vary or are uncertain. Parameter estimation is the process of computing the parameters of a system using a model &amp; measured data. Adaptive methods have been used in conjunction with different parameter estimation techniques. Deterministic artificial intelligence, a learning-based approach that uses the process dynamics defined by physics, is also applied to control the output of the DC motor to track a specified trajectory. This work goes further to evaluate the performance of the adaptive &amp; learning techniques based on different discretization methods. The results are evaluated based on the absolute error mean between the output &amp; the reference trajectory and the standard deviation of the error. The first order-hold method of discretization and surprisingly large sample time of seven tenths of a second yields over sixty percent improvement over the results presented in the prequel literature.

Classical k-ratio models, e.g. ZAF and phi(rho z), used in electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) assume a homogeneous or multi-layered material structure, which essentially limits the spatial resolution of EPMA to the size of the interaction volume where characteristic x-rays are produced. We present a new model for characteristic x-ray emission that avoids assumptions on the material structure to not restrict the resolution of EPMA a-priori. Our model bases on the spherical harmonic (PN) approximation of the Boltzmann equation for electron transport in continuous slowing down approximation. PN models have a simple structure, are hierarchical in accuracy and well-suited for efficient adjoint-based gradient computation, which makes our model a promising alternative to classical models in terms of improving the resolution of EPMA in the future. We present results of various test cases including a comparison of the PN model to a minimum entropy moment model as well as Monte-Carlo (MC) trajectory sampling, a comparison of PN-based k-ratios to k-ratios obtained with MC, a comparison with experimental data of electron backscattering yields as well as a comparison of PN and Monte-Carlo based on characteristic X-ray generation in a three-dimensional material probe with fine structures.

We discuss the generation of various reproduction ratios or numbers to monitor the outbreak of Covid-19 or other epidemics and examine the effects of intervention/relaxation measures. A detailed SEIR algorithm is described for their computation, with applications given to the current Covid-19 outbreak in several countries in America (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, US) and Europe (France, Italy, Spain and UK). The corresponding matlab script, complete and ready to use, is provided for free downloading.

The ageing global population and changing labor force participation are having a profound impact on state pension programs worldwide, including Malaysia. However, the effects of an ageing workforce and declining fertility rates are having a significant impact on future trends in labor force participation and the duration of retirement. This paper presents an innovative examination of labor force participation rate (LFPR) forecasting within the context of an aging workforce, utilizing the Lee-Carter and Cairns-Blake Dowd stochastic models, traditionally applied to mortality data. By adapting these models to LFPR data, the study offers a novel perspective on predicting workforce participation trends and understanding the dynamics of retirement planning from year 2001 to 2047. Additionally, by incorporating the mortality forecasts from the United Nations, the research navigates through the complexities of applying actuarial methods to labor economics, revealing differentiated pathways for male and female participation in the labor market and the anticipated length of retirement. This study offers a unique comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) LFPR models. It focuses on fitting and forecasting the LFPR of senior employees aged 50 to 64. The results highlighted discrepancies among models that demonstrated evidence of model risk for extended retirement duration.

The stochastic modelling of chemical physical processes is essentially based on a coarse-grained formulation of fluctuations, usually described by means of Wiener processes. By taking the paradigmatic example of chemical reaction kinetics, we propose a simple representation of microscopic stochastic dynamics grounded on the use of distributional derivatives of counting processes that account for elementary reactive events. This approach is consistent with the statistical analysis based on the Chemical Master Equation, and provides the formal setting for the existing algorithmic approaches (Gillespie algorithm). Some practical advantages of this formulation are addressed, and several other examples are discussed in connection with cluster formation, velocity fluctuations in liquid systems, and quantum transitions (radiative interactions) at the molecular level.

Discretization in time and in the state space of the system leads to the necessity to solve the parameter identification problems for dynamic systems in a limited time (at a finite time interval) using observations obtained under the influence of unknown-but-bounded noise. Finding the solution in this case is more difficult compared to traditional identification problem setting which considers random independent zero-mean noise. For system parameter identification problem under unknown-but-bounded noise, a randomized stochastic optimization algorithm is given in the paper, estimates for the mean square values of the residuals for a finite observation interval are obtained. An example of application of the given method to the problem of tuning the parameters of a multi-mirror telescope is considered.

The world population is aging, which along with recent shifts in the labor force participation (LFP), is having a significant longevity influence on state pension programs across the board, including Canada, Finland, Japan, and Germany. Except Japan, these countries have set their statutory re-tirement age at 65, but the impact of aging workforce and declined fertility rates create wonders on the estimate future trends in the LFP, as well as the length of retirement. In this study, we fit the LFP rates of these countries, representing continents from Asia, Europe and North America among the OECD countries, using the Lee-Carter and Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) stochastic models. The es-timates are then used for the projection of future LFP rates (1989-2066), and by combining the mortality forecasts from the United Nations, we project the expected length of retirement (1989-2066). This study provided a novel comparison between the Lee-Carter and the CBD LFP models by fitting and forecasting the LFP rates of senior employees between 50- to 74-year-olds. The results revealed disparities between models that provided proof of the presence of model risk for longer retirement durations. The study findings emphasized the importance for decision-makers in pension industry to have awareness of potential risks and limits associated with the LFP models. The Lee-Carter model outperformed the CBD model even though the CBD model is known for its ac-curate prediction in higher ages. Population aging should be considered in any analysis of the long-term viability of pensions, together with the participation rate trends for a sustainable labor market future.

This study investigates the stochastic dynamics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection using a newly proposed stochastic model. Contrary to deterministic models that fail to encapsulate the inherent randomness and fluctuations in biological processes, our stochastic model provides a more realistic representation of HBV infection dynamics. It incorporates random variability, thereby acknowledging the changes in viral and cellular populations and uncertainties in parameters such as infection rates and immune responses. We examine the solution's existence, uniqueness, and positivity for the proposed model, followed by a comprehensive stability analysis. We provide the necessary and sufficient conditions for local and global stability, offering deep insight into the infection dynamics. Furthermore, we utilize numerical simulations to corroborate our theoretical results. This research provides a robust tool for understanding the complex behavior of HBV dynamics, contributing significantly to the ongoing quest for more effective HBV control and prevention strategies.

In this paper, we investigate the cumulative historical entropy of the lifetime of an n-component coherent system under the assumption that all system components have failed at time t. Using the system signature, we can calculate the cumulative historical entropy of the system’s lifespan, which is an important aspect in determining a system’s predictability. This research produces a number of significant results, including expressions, bounds, and ordering aspects for this measure. In addition, we offer a method for finding a preferred system based on cumulative Kullback-Leibler discriminating information that is closely related to the parallel system. These findings provide important insights into the predictability and dependability of coherent systems, emphasizing the importance of this field.

Machinery parts gradually wear out over time due to regular usage. To improve machinery health and prevent critical issues, a reliable prognosis framework can be implemented by monitoring the behaviour of machinery parts and issuing warnings before they reach a critical state. To achieve this, vibration data from roller bearings experiencing various fault conditions have been collected. Different techniques from the literature were combined to analyze the distinct configurations in the vibration data sets and identify the main defects in roller bearings. The significant features extracted from this analysis were then used to create optimized stochastic model equations, separately regressing inner and outer race fault features to healthy bearing features under random conditions. These models can help engineers design more dependable systems, optimize their performance, and minimize the risk of failures and downtime.

Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, apparently the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models - in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy - is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality rate. In this article, we examine whether the same forecast outcomes are obtained when the performance of mortality models is assessed based on the original and log scales of the mortality rate. We compare four different stochastic mortality models: the original Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter model with (log-)normal distribution, the Lee-Carter model with Poisson distribution and the median Lee-Carter model. We show that the preferred model will depend on the scale of the objective variable, the selection criteria measure and the range of ages analysed.

When there is uncertainty in the value of parameters of the input random components of a stochastic simulation model, two-level nested simulation algorithms are used to estimate the expectation of performance variables of interest. In the outer level of the algorithm (n) observations are generated for the parameters, and in the inner level (m) observations of the simulation model are generated with the value of parameters fixed at the value generated in the outer level. In this article, we consider the case in which the observations at both levels of the algorithm are independent, showing how the variance of the observations can be decomposed into the sum of a parametric variance and a stochastic variance. Next, we derive central limit theorems that allow us to compute asymptotic confidence intervals to assess the accuracy of the simulation-based estimators for the point forecast and the variance components. Under this framework, we derive analytical expressions for the point forecast and the variance components of a Bayesian model to forecast sporadic demand; and we use these expressions to illustrate the validity of our theoretical results by performing simulation experiments using this forecast model.

As a model for economic and ecological systems, replicator dynamics represents a basic form of agent competition for finite resources. Here, we investigate the effects of stochastic resetting in this kind of processes. Random reset events abruptly lead individual resources to a small value from which dynamics must start anew. Numerical results show that resource distribution over the population of competing agents develops highly nonuniform profiles, exhibiting clustering and fluctuations with anomalous dependence on the population size. This non-standard statistical behavior jeopardizes an analytical treatment based on mean-field assumptions. We propose alternative simplified analytical approaches which provide a stylized description of entropy evolution for the clustered distribution of resources and explain the unusually slow decrease of fluctuations.

In this paper we present a successful implementation of the Hindmarsh–Rose model within a SC environment. The merits of the proposed approach are design simplicity, due to stochastic computing, and the ease of implementation. Simulation results showed that the approximation achieved is equivalent to introducing a noise source into the original model. A study for the level of noise introduced, according to the number of bits in the stochastic sequence, has been performed. Additionally, we demonstrate that such an approach, even though it is noisy, it reproduces the behaviour of biological systems, which are intrinsically noisy. It is also demonstrated that a speedup of x2 compared to biological systems is easily achievable, with a very small number of gates, thus paving the road for the in silico implementation of large neuron networks.

The paper describes a method of solving some stochastic processes using generating functions. A general theorem of generating functions of a particular type is derived. A generating function of this type is applied to a stochastic process yielding polynomial time algorithms for certain partitions. The method is generalized to a stochastic process describing a rather general linear transform. Finally, the main idea of the method is used in deriving a theoretical polynomial time algorithm to the knapsack problem.

To sample from complex, high-dimensional distributions, one may choose algorithms based on the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) method. HMC-based algorithms generate nonlocal moves alleviating diffusive behavior. Here, I build on an already defined HMC framework, Hybrid Monte Carlo on Hilbert spaces [A. Beskos, F.J. Pinski, J.-M. Sanz-Serna and A.M. Stuart, Stoch. Proc. Applic. 121, 2201 - 2230 (2011); doi:10.1016/j.spa.2011.06.003] that provides finite-dimensional approximations of measures π which have density with respect to a Gaussian measure on an infinite-dimensional Hilbert (path) space. In all HMC algorithms, one has some freedom to choose the mass operator. The novel feature of the algorithm described in this article lies in the choice of this operator. This new choice defines a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method which is well defined on the Hilbert space itself. As before, the algorithm described herein uses an enlarged phase space Π having the target π as a marginal, together with a Hamiltonian flow that preserves Π. In the previous method, the phase space π was augmented with Brownian bridges. With the new choice for the mass operator, π is augmented with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) bridges. The covariance of Brownian bridges grows with its length, which has negative effects on the Metropolis-Hasting acceptance rate. This contrasts with the covariance of OU bridges which is independent of the path length. The ingredients of the new algorithm include the definition of the mass operator, the equations for the Hamiltonian flow, the (approximate) numerical integration of the evolution equations, and finally the Metropolis-Hastings acceptance rule. Taken together, these constitute a robust method for sampling the target distribution in an almost dimension-free manner. The behavior of this novel algorithm is demonstrated by computer experiments for a particle moving in two dimensions, between two free-energy basins separated by an entropic barrier.

The vibration feature of weak gear fault is often covered in strong background noise, which makes it necessary to establish weak feature enhancement methods. Among the enhancement methods, stochastic resonance (SR) has the unique advantage of transferring noise energy to weak signals and has a great application prospection in weak signal extraction. But the traditional SR potential model cannot form a richer potential structure and may lead to system instability when the noise is too great. To overcome these shortcomings, the article presents a periodic potential underdamping stochastic resonance (PPUSR) method after investigating the potential function and system signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). In addition, system parameters are further optimized by using ant colony algorithm. Through simulation and gear experiments, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified. We concluded that compared with the traditional underdamped stochastic resonance (TUSR) method, the PPUSR method had a higher recognition degree and better frequency response capability.

Little in the scholarly economics literature is directed specifically to the performance of sta­ble value funds, although they occupy a leading place among retirement investment vehicles. They are currently offered in more than one-third of all defined contribution plans in the USA, with more than $800 billion of assets under management. This paper rigorously ex­amines their performance throughout the entire period since their inception in 1973. We produce a composite index of stable value returns. We next conduct mean-variance analysis, Sharpe and Sortino ratio analysis, stochastic dominance analysis, and optimal multi-period portfolio composition analysis. Our evidence suggests that stable value funds dominate (on average) two major asset classes based on a historical analysis, and that they often occupy a significant position in optimized portfolios across a broad range of risk aversion levels. We discuss factors that contributed to stable value funds’ past performance and whether they can continue to perform well into the future. We also discuss considerations regarding whether or not to include stable value as an element in target date funds within defined con­tribution pension plans.

Modern companies accumulate a vast amount of customer data that can be used for creating a personalized experience. Analyzing this data is difficult and most business intelligence tools cannot cope with the volume of the data. One example is churn prediction, where the cost of retaining existing customers is less than acquiring new ones. Several data mining and machine learning approaches can be used, but there is still little information about the different algorithm settings to be used when the dataset doesn't fit into a single computer memory. Because of the difficulties of applying feature selection techniques at a large scale, Incremental Probabilistic Component Analysis (IPCA) is proposed as a data preprocessing technique. Also, we present a new approach to large scale churn prediction problems based on the mini-batch Stochastic Gradient Decent (SGD) algorithm. Compared to other techniques, the new method facilitates training with large data volumes using a small memory footprint while achieving good prediction results.

For concrete structures exposed to offshore areas, chloride ion erosion is one of the main factors affecting the durability. It is crucial to evaluate chloride ion permeability resistance of concrete structures. In this article, a finite element simulation of the chloride ion diffusion process in concrete is conducted. A mass diffusion finite element model based on random aggregate approach is established to investigate the influence of aggregate, interface transition zone, and micro-cracks on chloride ion diffusion coefficients in concrete. The results show that the mass diffusion finite element analysis based on the exponential function model and power function model can effectively simulate the chloride ion diffusion process in concrete. In addition, the data reveal that coarse aggregate is the most important factor affecting chloride ion diffusivity in concrete. However, the interface transition zone significantly accelerates chloride ion diffusion in concrete. Moreover, this acceleration effect exceeds the barrier effect of aggregate.

We suppose that a Cooper pair (CP) will experience a damping force exerted by the condensed matter. A Langevin equation of a CP in two dimensional condensed matter is established. Following a method similar to Nelson's stochastic mechanics, generalized Schr\"{o}dinger equation of a CP in condensed matter is derived. If the CPs move with a constant velocity, then the corresponding direct current (DC) electrical conductivity can be calculated. Therefore, a Drude like formula of resistivity of CPs is derived. We suppose that the damping coefficient of CPs in two dimensional cuprate superconductors is a linear function of temperature. Then the resistivity and scattering rate of CPs turn out to be also linear-in-temperature. The origin of linear-in-temperature resistivity and Planckian dissipation in cuprate superconductors may be the linear temperature dependence of the damping coefficient of CPs.

Starting from the analysis of the lack of positivity of the Cattaneo heat equation, the article addresses the thermodynamic relevance of the positivity constraint in irreversible thermodynamics, than is at least as important as the entropic constraints. The fulfillment of this condition in hyperbolic models leads to the parametrization of the concentration fields with respect to internal variables associated with the microscopic dynamics. Using Brownian motion theory as a landmarking example for deriving macroscopic transport equations from the equations of motion at the particle/molecular level, we discuss two typical problems involving hydrodynamic interactions at microscale: surface chemical reactions at a solid interface of a diffusing reactant, and mass-balance equations in a complex viscoelastic fluid, in which the physics of the interaction leads either to the overcome the parabolic diffusion model or to consider the parametrization of the concentration with respect to the degrees of freedom associated with the relaxation dynamics of the solvent fluid.

ABSTRACT The present study aimed to investigate the presence of asymmetric stochastic volatility and leverage effects within the Nasdaq-100 index. This index is widely regarded as an important indicator for investors. We focused on the nine leading stocks within the index, which are highly popular and hold significant weight in the investment world. These stocks are Netflix, PayPal, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Apple, and Meta. The study covered the period between 03/01/2017 and 30/01/2023, and we employed the Eviews and WinBUGS applications to conduct the analysis. We began by calculating the logarithmic difference to obtain the return series. We then performed a sample test with 100,000 iterations, excluding the first 10,000 samples to eliminate the initial bias of the coefficients. This left us with 90,000 samples for analysis. Using the results of the asymmetric stochastic volatility model, we evaluated both the Nasdaq-100 index as a whole and the volatility persistence, predictability, and correlation levels of individual stocks. This allowed us to evaluate the ability of individual stocks to represent the characteristics of the Nasdaq-100 index. Our findings revealed a dense clustering of volatility, both for the Nasdaq-100 index and the nine individual stocks. We observed that this volatility is continuous but has a predictable impact on variability. Moreover, with the exception of Intel, all the stocks in the model exhibited both leverage effects and the presence of asymmetric relationships, as did the Nasdaq-100 index as a whole. Overall, our results show that the characteristics of stocks in the model are similar to the volatility characteristic of the Nasdaq-100 index and have the ability to represent it.

The focus of this paper is on analyzing the role and the choice of parameters in sociophysics diffusion models, by leveraging the potentialities of sociophysics from a mathematical programming perspective. We first present a generalised version of Galam’s opinion diffusion model (see, e.g. , ). For a given selection of the coefficients in our model, this proposal yields the original Galam’s model. The generalised model suggests guidelines for possible alternative selection of its parameters that allow to foster diffusion. Examples of the parameters selection process as steered by numerical optimisation, taking into account various objectives, are provided.

We consider the problem of scheduling tasks on a single machine subject to an uncertain breakdown to minimize the flowtime. Assume the machine is unavailable during the breakdown; the starting time of the breakdown is a random variable s with distribution function D(s) and the terminating time of the breakdown has no any other information; jobs are non-resumable. Under the assumptions, starting from the perspective of statistical optimization, we first define the expected competitive ratio of an algorithm to find the optimized solution with the considered problem. Further, we propose and prove a certain result on the expected competitive ratio of the SPT rule. In particular, we show that under a quite loose condition the expected competitive ratio of the SPT rule is no more than 5/4. Meanwhile, we also make some discussions about our studies. What we have done will rich and improve the studying results on the area of scheduling to minimize flowtime and advance the development of online optimization and statistical optimization.

A thermal load dispatch problem minimizes the number of objectives viz operating cost and emission of gaseous pollutants together while allocating the power demand among the committed generating units subject to physical and technological system constraints. A stochastic thermal load dispatch problem is undertaken while taking into consideration, the uncertainties, errors in data measurements and nature of load demand which is random. Owing to uncertain load demand, variance due to mismatch of power demand termed as risk, is considered as another conflicting objective to be minimized. Generally multiobjective problems generate a set of non-inferior solutions are generated and supplied to a decision maker to select the best solution from the set of non-inferior solutions. This paper proposes opposition-based greedy heuristic search (OGHS) method to generate a set of non-inferior solutions. Opposition-based learning is applied to generate initial population to select good candidates. Migration to maintain diversity in the set of feasible solutions is also based on opposition-based learning. Mutation strategy is implemented by perturbing the genes heuristically in parallel and better one solution is sought for each member. Feasible solutions are achieved heuristically by modifying the generation-schedules in such a manner that violation of operating generation limits are avoided. The OGHS method is simple to implement and provides global solutions derived from the randomness of the population generated without tuning of parameters. Decision maker exploits fuzzy membership functions to decide the final decision. Validity of the method has been demonstrated by analysing systems in different scenarios consisting of six generators and forty generators.

Due to the increased use of memristors, and its many applications, the use of emulators has grown in parallel to avoid some of the difficulties presented by real devices such as variability and reliability. In this paper, we present a memristive emulator designed using a Switched Capacitor (SC), this is, an analog component/ block and a control part or block implemented using stochastic computing (SCo) and therefore fully digital. Our design is thus a mixed signal circuit. Memristor equations are implemented using stochastic computing to generate the control signals necessary to work with the controllable resistor implemented as switched capacitor.

The article is devoted to the new results of the author, which add his previously published ones, of studying hidden rules and symmetries in structures of long single-stranded DNA sequences in eukaryotic and prokaryotic genomes. The author uses the existence of different alphabets of n-plets in DNA: the alphabet of 4 nucleotides, the alphabet of 16 douplets, the alphabet of 64 triplets, etc. Each of such DNA alphabets of n-plets can serve for constructing a text as a chain of these n-plets. Using this possibility, the author represents any long DNA nucleotide sequence as a bunch of many so-called n-texts, each of which is written on the basis of one of these alphabets of n-plets. Each of such n-texts has its individual percents of different n-plets in its genomic DNA. But it turns out that in such multi-alphabetical or multilayer presentation of each of many genomic DNA, analyzed by the author, universal rules of probabilities and symmetry exist in interrelations of its different n-texts regarding their percents of n-plets. In this study, the tensor product of matrices and vectors is used as an effective analytical tool borrowed from the arsenal of quantum mechanics. Some additions to the topic of algebra-holographic principles in genetics are also presented. Taking into account the described genomic rules of probability, the author puts also forward a concept of the important role of stochastic resonances in genetic informatics.

This study focuses on the decisions of picking, inventory, ripening, delivering, and selling mangoes in a harvesting season. Demand, supply, and prices are uncertain, and their probability density functions are fitted based on actual trading data collected from the largest spot market in Taiwan. A stochastic programming model is formulated to minimize the expected cost under the considerations of labor, storage space, shelf life, and transportation restrictions. We implement the sample-average approximation to obtain a high-quality solution of the stochastic program. The analysis compares deterministic and stochastic solutions to assess the uncertain effect on the harvest decisions. Finally, the optimal harvest schedule of each mango type is suggested based on the stochastic program solution.

The disastrous 2017 fire season in Portugal lead to widespread recognition of the need for a paradigm shift in forest and fire management. We focused our study on Alvares, a parish in central Portugal which had 60% of its area burned in 2017, with a large record of historical. We evaluated how different fuel treatment strategies can reduce wildfire hazard in Alvares, through i) a fuel break network with different priorities and ii) random fuel treatments resulting from stand-level management intensification. To assess this, we developed a stochastic fire simulation system (FUNC-SIM) that integrates uncertainties in fuel distribution over the landscape. If the landscape remains unchanged, Alvares will have large burn probabilities in the north, northeast, and center-east areas of the parish that are very often associated with high fire line intensities. The different fuel treatment scenarios decreased burned area between 12.1-31.2%, resulting from 1%-4.6% increases in annual treatment area, and reduced 10%-40% the likelihood of wildfires larger than 5000 ha. On average, simulated burned area decreased 0.22% per each ha treated, and effectiveness decreased with increasing area treated. Overall, both fuel treatment strategies effectively reduced wildfire hazard and should be part of a larger, holistic and integrated plan to reduce the vulnerability of the Alvares parish to wildfires.

We present a class of efficient parametric closure models for 1D stochastic Burgers equations. Casting it as statistical learning of the flow map, we derive the parametric form by representing the unresolved high wavenumber Fourier modes as functionals of the resolved variables’ trajectory. The reduced models are nonlinear autoregression (NAR) time series models, with coefficients estimated from data by least squares. The NAR models can accurately reproduce the energy spectrum, the invariant densities, and the autocorrelations. Taking advantage of the simplicity of the NAR models, we investigate maximal and optimal space-time reduction. Reduction in space dimension is unlimited, and NAR models with two Fourier modes can perform well. The NAR model’s stability limits time reduction, with a maximal time step smaller than that of the K-mode Galerkin system. We report a potential criterion for optimal space-time reduction: the NAR models achieve minimal relative error in the energy spectrum at the time step where the K-mode Galerkin system’s mean CFL number agrees with the full model’s.

This paper analyzes the robust dissipativity of uncertain stochastic generalized neural networks (USGNNs) with Markovian jumping parameters and time-varying delays. In practical applications most of the systems refer to uncertainties, hence, the norm-bounded parameter uncertainties and stochastic disturbance are considered. Then, by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional (LKF) and by employing integral inequalities LMI-based sufficient conditions of the considered systems are established. Numerical simulations are given to show the merit of the presented results.

The present paper deals with the stochastic modeling of bio-colonization for the computation of stochastic hydrodynamic loading on jacket-type offshore structures. It relies on a multidisciplinary study gathering biological and physical research fields that accounts of uncertainties at all the levels. Indeed, bio-colonization of offshore structures is a complex phenomenon with two major but distinct domains (i) marine biology whose processes are modeled with biomathematics methods and (ii) hydrodynamic processes. This paper aims to connect these two domains. It proposes a stochastic model for the marine organism’s growth and then continues with transfers for assessment of drag coefficient and forces probability density functions that accounts for marine growth evolution. A case study relies on the characteristics (growth and shape) of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) in northeastern Atlantic.

Vibrations of blades and tower have important impact for wind turbine. This paper presents a active controller design to suppress blade edgewise vibrations under aerodynamic load and gravitational load.Treating the sum of aerodynamic load input in edgewise direction and gravitational load as unknown disturbance input,a stochastic disturbance accommodating control(SDAC) approach is proposed to design a controller which it utilizes a minimum-variance unbiased estimator(MVUE) to estimate both state and unknown input. The stability analysis proved that the proposed SDAC is bounded in mean square.In order to verify the performance of the minimum-variance unbiased estimator and the proposed SDAC, numerical simulations using Matlab/Simulink have been carried out for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5-MW wind turbine.Under the different circumstance which exists the random process and measure noise and noise free. It is shown that the estimation value by MVUE can tracking the real state and unknown input. The results are also compared to the traditional linear quadratic regulator(LQR) and show that the proposed stochastic disturbance accommodating control scheme can further reduce displacement in edgewise vibrations direction and the control strategy is more effective than the LQR.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in the production of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES). The RES investment is characterized by uncertainty, which is long-term, costly, depend on feed-in-tariff and support schemes. In this paper, we address the real option valuation (ROV) of a solar power plant investment. The real option framework is investigated. This framework considers the renewable certificate price, furthermore the cost of delay between establishing and operating the solar power plant. The optimal time of launching the project and assess the value of deferred option are discussed. The new three stage numerical methods are constructed, the Lobatto3C-Milstein (L3CM) methods. The numerical methods are integrated with concept of Black-Scholes option pricing theory, and applied in option valuation for solar energy investment with uncertainty. The numerical results of L3CM, finite difference and Monte Carlo methods are compared to show the efficiency of our methods. Our data set refers to the Arab Republic of Egypt.

In this paper, mean-field type games between two players with backward stochastic dynamics are defined and studied. They make up a class of non-zero-sum differential games where the players' state dynamics solve backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) that depend on the marginal distributions of player states. Players try to minimize their individual cost functionals, also depending on the marginal state distributions. Under some regularity conditions, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of Nash equilibria. Player behavior is illustrated by numerical examples, and is compared to a centrally planned solution where the social cost, the sum of player costs, is minimized. The inefficiency of a Nash equilibrium, compared to socially optimal behavior, is quantified by the so-called price of anarchy. Numerical simulations of the price of anarchy indicate how the improvement in social cost achievable by a central planner depends on problem parameters.

Accurate and reliable project cost estimates are fundamental to achieve successful municipal capital improvement (CIP) programs. Engineering cost estimates typically represent critical information for key decision makers to authorize and efficiently allocate the necessary funds for construction, budgeting, to generate a request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, etc. for these reasons, cost estimators are using different estimating methods and approaches that allow for required levels of accuracy. As the project’s scope becomes more detailed and the potential risks are identified and/or the project design stage progresses these cost estimates are revised and updated. In this paper, the most common project cost estimation methods and approaches were collected and categorized into two main groups of (1) probabilistic and (2) deterministic methods. Under these groups overall ten different methods were identified and discussed addressing their requirements, advantages, and shortcomings, including the potential risk that can positively or negatively affect the project’s cost outcome. This paper will be a good resource for professionals who are in budget development and/or are seeking to a better understanding of different methods in determining an appropriate base cost margin and produce a meaningful and reliable project cost estimate.

Real assets in the energy market are subject to ecological uncertainty due to the penetration of renewables. We illustrate this point by analysing electrolysers, a class of assets which recently became the subject of a large interest, as they lead to the production of the desirable green hydrogen and green ammonia. The latter has the advantage of being easily stored and has huge potential in decarbonising both the fertilizer and shipping industries. We consider the optimization of green ammonia production with different types of electricity procurement in the context of stochastic power and ammonia markets, a necessary assumption to translate the features of renewable, hence intermittent, electricity. We emphasise the importance of using stochastic prices to effectively model the volatile nature of the price dynamics, illustrating the project risks that can be mitigated by hedging activities. This study shows the pivotal role of flexibility when dealing with fluctuating renewable production and volatile electricity prices to maximise profits and better manage risks.

In this paper we consider a failed cold standby systems and obtain some stochastic bounds on the idle time of such systems. It is assumed that, at a time t the failure of a cold standby system is observed, but the actual time of the failure is a time before t. The idle time of the inactive cold standby system is measured as the time between the exact time of failure, which is a random variable, and time t. We use the idle times of the components of the system to obtain lower and upper bounds on the lifetime of the standby system to which they are assembled. We bring some examples to show that the results and the conditions imposed to get them are achievable.

The COVID-19 epidemic and the measures adopted to contain it have had a significant impact on energy patterns throughout the world. The pandemic and movement restrictions led to unpredictable fluctuations in power systems demand and the fuel price for a delayed period. Monkeypox, another viral disease, appeared during the post-COVID period. It is assumed that the outbreak of monkeypox is unlikely due to the implication of preventive measures experienced by COVID-19. At the same time, the probability of an epidemic cannot be blindly overlooked. This paper aims to examine and analyze historical data to look at how much petroleum fuel was used for generating power and how the price of petroleum fuel changed over seven years, from January 2016 to August 2022. This period covers the time before the COVID-19 pandemic, during the pandemic, and after the pandemic. Several time-series forecasting models, including all four benchmark methods (Mean, Naïve, Drift, and Snaïve), Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods have been applied for both fuel consumption and price prediction. The best forecasting method for fuel price and consumption has been identified among these methods. The paper also utilizes the ARIMAX model by incorporating multiple exogenous variables, such as monthly mean temperature, mean fuel price, and mileage of vehicles traveling during a certain period of pandemic lock-down. It will assist in capturing the non-smooth and stochastic pattern of fuel consumption and price due to the pandemic by separating the seasonal influence and thus provide a prediction of the consumption pattern in the event of any future pandemic.

This paper is concerned with variational methods for open quantum systems with Markovian dynamics governed by Hudson-Parthasarathy quantum stochastic differential equations. These QSDEs are driven by quantum Wiener processes of the external bosonic fields and are specified by the system Hamiltonian and system-field coupling operators. We consider the system response to perturbations in these operators and introduce a transverse Hamiltonian which encodes the propagation of the perturbations through the unitary system-field evolution. This approach provides an infinitesimal perturbation analysis tool which can be used for the development of optimality conditions in quantum control and filtering problems. Such settings employ, as performance criteria, quadratic (or more complicated) cost functionals of the system and field variables to be minimised over the energy and coupling parameters of system interconnections. We demonstrate an application of the transverse Hamiltonian variational approach to a mean square optimal coherent quantum filtering problem for a measurement-free field-mediated cascade connection of a quantum system with a quantum observer.