ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0164.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: Principle of maximum entropy; quantile estimation; confidence interval; Monte Carlo simulation; precipitation frequency analysis
Online: 16 January 2019 (10:11:03 CET)
Confidence interval of is an interval corresponding to a specified confidence and including the true value. It can be used to describe the precision of a statistical quantity and quantify its uncertainty. Although the principle of maximum entropy (POME) has been used for a variety of applications in hydrology, the confidence intervals of the POME quantile estimators have not been available. In this study, the calculation formulas of asymptotic variances and confidence intervals of quantiles based on POME for Gamma, Pearson type 3 (P3) and Extreme value type 1 (EV1) distributions were derived. Monte Carlo Simulation experiments were performed to evaluate the performance of derived formulas for finite samples. Using four data sets for annual precipitation at the Weihe River basin in China, the derived formulas were applied for calculating the variances and confidence intervals of precipitation quantiles for different return periods and the results were compared with those of the methods of moments (MOM) and of maximum likelihood (ML) method. It is shown that POME yields the smallest standard errors and the narrowest confidence intervals of quantile estimators among the three methods, and can reduce the uncertainty of quantile estimators
SHORT NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0155.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Confidence interval; Infection fatality rate; Covid-19
Online: 8 July 2020 (12:04:50 CEST)
Covid-19 fatality rates of 0.37% (Gangelt, Germany) and 0.17% (Santa Clara, USA) have been reported, estimated from serological studies. We show that the two confidence intervals strongly overlap when the uncertainty in the number of deaths is taken into account, so that the two investigations may be regarded as representative of the same population (tentatively: “Western society with no overload of the Health Care System during the pandemic”). Combining the results, the Covid-19 fatality rate is estimated to be found with 95% confidence in the range [0.1%; 0.3%].
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0254.v2
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: consumer confidence report; communication; water quality report
Online: 17 April 2019 (10:53:57 CEST)
The Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments of 1996 require community water systems in the United States to send consumers Consumer Confidence Reports (CCRs). CCRs contain information on detected contaminants and required educational information about drinking water. The authors of this study developed a survey to evaluate how utilities track consumer feedback, understanding, and the role of the CCR in shaping consumer perceptions about water quality. Responses from this survey indicate it is common for utilities to indirectly track the effectiveness of their CCRs, but few utilities indicated directly evaluating consumer understanding or the effect of CCRs on consumer perceptions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0423.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: proportion estimation; linear mixture model; confidence interval; confidence region; photosynthetic vegetation; non-photosynthetic vegetation; soil; Landsat Thematic Mapper
Online: 24 January 2023 (05:56:10 CET)
Many papers in recent years have been devoted to estimating the per pixel proportions of three broad classes of materials (e.g. photosynthetic vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation and bare soil) using data from multispectral sensors. Many of these papers use estimation methods based on the linear mixture model. Very few of these papers assess the accuracy of their estimators. I show how to produce confidence intervals (CIs) and joint confidence regions (JCRs) for the proportions associated with various linear mixture models. There are two main models, both of which assume that the coefficients in the model are non-negative. The first model assumes that the coefficients sum to 1. The second does not, but uses rescaling of the estimated coefficients to produce estimated proportions. Three variants of these two models are also analysed. JCRs are shown to be particularly informative, because they are typically better at localising the information than CIs are. The methodology is illustrated using examples from Landsat Thematic Mapper data at 1169 locations across Australia, each of which has associated field observations. There is also discussion about the extent to which the methodology can be extended to hyperspectral data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0213.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: bootstrapping; confidence intervals; dbs; resampling; variance estimation; heteroscedasticity
Online: 13 February 2023 (09:50:08 CET)
Bootstrapping is a flexible, powerful and well-established statistical approach to quantify the uncertainty of virtually any point estimate. While multiple versions of bootstrap confidence intervals are already available in Stata, dbs implements the double (iterated) bootstrap. Instead of relying on parametric assumptions such as the non-parametric resampling bootstrap confidence interval does, it is more flexible and derives critical values directly from that data. To do so, multiple methods are available (analytic approach, double resampling, jackknife estimation). In a comparative simulation study it is empirically demonstrated that the strengths of the double bootstrap are particularly evident for small samples (n < 100) when heteroscedasticity is present. While all other approaches result in undercoverage, only the double bootstrap reaches the target coverage level and hence avoids incorrect statistical conclusions. The computational burden is not even necessarily larger than for other bootstrap approaches.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0426.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Bandit Algorithm; Upper Confidence Bounds; Kullback-Leibler divergence
Online: 24 April 2020 (04:24:31 CEST)
Upper confidence bound multi-armed bandit algorithms (UCB) typically rely on concentration in- equalities (such as Hoeffding’s inequality) for the creation of the upper confidence bound. Intu- itively, the tighter the bound is, the more likely the respective arm is or isn’t judged appropriately for selection. Hence we derive and utilise an optimal inequality. Usually the sample mean (and sometimes the sample variance) of previous rewards are the information which are used in the bounds which drive the algorithm, but intuitively the more infor- mation that taken from the previous rewards, the tighter the bound could be. Hence our inequality explicitly considers the values of each and every past reward into the upper bound expression which drives the method. We show how this UCB method fits into the broader scope of other information theoretic UCB algorithms, but unlike them is free from assumptions about the distribution of the data, We conclude by reporting some already established regret information, and give some numerical simulations to demonstrate the method’s effectiveness.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0206.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Other Keywords: Biomedical libraries; author’s confidence; writing styles; text analysis
Online: 8 November 2018 (11:01:24 CET)
In an era when medical literature is increasing daily, researchers in biomedical and clinical areas have joined efforts with language engineers to analyze large amount of biomedical and molecular biology literature (such as PubMed), patient data or health records. With such a huge amount of reports, evaluating their impact has long seized to be a trivial task. In this context, this paper intends to introduce a non-scientific factor that represents an important element in the effort of gaining acceptance of claims. Thus, we postulate that the confidence the author is expressing in his work plays an important role in shaping the first impression that influences the reader’s perception of the paper. The results discussed in this paper are based on a series of experiments ran over data from the Open Archives Initiative (OAI) corpus that provides interoperability standards in order to facilitate the effectiveness dissemination of the content. This method can be useful to the direct beneficiaries (authors, who are engaged in medical or academic research), but, also, researchers in the fields of BioNLP and NLP, etc.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0382.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Other Keywords: opinion dynamics; bounded confidence; higher-order interaction; HK model
Online: 26 July 2022 (03:49:08 CEST)
The higher-order interactions in complex systems are gaining attention. Extending the classic bounded confidence model where an agent’s opinion update is the average opinion of its peers, this paper proposes a higher-order version of the bounded confidence model. Each agent organizes a group opinion discussion among its peers. Then, the discussion’s result influences all participants’ opinions. Since an agent is also the peer of its peers, the agent actually participates in multiple group discussions. We assume the agent’s opinion update is the average over multiple group discussions. The opinion dynamics rules can be arbitrary in each discussion. In this work, we experiment with two discussion rules: centralized and decentralized. We show that the centralized rule is equivalent to the classic bounded confidence model. The decentralized rule, however, can promote opinion consensus. In need of modeling specific real-life scenarios, the higher-order bounded confidence is convenient to combine with other higher-order dynamics, from the contagion process to evolutionary dynamics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0123.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Nursing Keywords: COVID-19; nurses; self-concept; self-confidence; professional practice
Online: 5 November 2021 (14:12:02 CET)
Purpose: To identify the impact of dealing with COVID-19 patients in clinical areas on nurses' professional self-concept and self-confidence. Background: Professional self-concept is considered a critical factor in the recruitment/retention process in nursing, nursing shortage, career satisfaction, and academic achievements. Professional self-confidence is also a crucial determinant in staff satisfaction, reducing turnover, and increasing work engagement. Design: Descriptive, comparative study. Methods: The study was conducted between February to May 2021 by utilizing a convenience sampling technique. A total of 170 nurses from two facilities were recruited from two COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 designated facilities. The level of professional self-concept and self-confidence was assessed by utilizing the Nurses' Self-Concept Instrument and Self-Confidence Scale. Results: The professional self-concept level among the exposed group to COVID-19 patients was lower than the comparison group, while the professional self-confidence level among the exposed group to COVID-19 patients was similar to the comparison group. On the other hand, the satisfied staff and those who received professional training in dealing with COVID-19 patients reported a higher level of professional self-concept. Conclusions: Dealing with COVID-19 patients has an impact on professional self-concept; the exposure group was lower than those who did not deal with COVID-19 patients, while the professional self-confidence level among the exposed group was similar to the comparison group. Getting professional training in dealing with COVID-19 patients and being satisfied at work were significant factors in improving the professional self-concept. Policymakers should create strategies that target the improvement of professional training in dealing with COVID-19 patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0666.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: hail prevention; non-normal distributions; permutation; bootstrap; confidence intervals
Online: 29 July 2021 (14:21:23 CEST)
Grossversuch IV is a large and well documented experiment on hail suppression by silver iodide seeding. The original 1986 evaluation remained vague, although indicating a tendency to increase hail when seeding. The strategy to deal with distributions of hail energy far from normal was not optimal. The present re-evaluation sticks to the question asked and avoids both misleading transformations and unsatisfactory meteorological predictors. The raw data show an increase by about a factor of 3 for the hail energy when seeding. This is the opposite of what seeding is supposed to do. The probability to obtain such a result by chance is below 1%, calculated by permutation and bootstrap techniques applied on the raw data. Confidence intervals were approximated by bootstrapping as well as by a new method called "correlation imposed permutation" (CIP).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201907.0221.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: financial crisis; management information system; financial system; confidence level
Online: 19 July 2019 (07:59:58 CEST)
There has been rampant fold-ups, merger and acquisitions occurring in the Ghanaian banking industry. Then, the questions arise: Is the Ghanaian Financial System in Crisis? This study was conducted to find answers to these problems unsolved with prior literature. A sample of seventy customers of the Royal Bank, 8 employees of the Royal Bank and 2 managers of the Royal Bank were selected for a case-survey. The study also monitored the Trend of the Ghanaian Financial System through the reading and monitoring of daily news on the Financial System and reports of banks. The data from the field and the secondary data from news and reports were analysed symmetrically. The study drew on Minsky’s Financial Crisis Theory to explain the phenomenon in the Ghanaian economy and to draw predictions of what would happen in other developing economies. The study found out that: (1) The Ghanaian financial system is fragile and it holds true for most developing economies; (2) The financial system suffers greatly when the confidence level of customers falls significantly; (3) Management information systems raises the confidence level of customers (borrowers and lenders) such that there is a greater fall and impact in times of instability in the economy; (4) The higher the level of MIS adoption in an unstable economy, the more fragile the Financial System becomes and (5) A higher adoption of Management Information Systems in a Fragile Financial System indirectly contributes to Financial Crisis of the Financial System.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0398.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: statistical significance; confidence; medication tests; central limit theorem; fat tail
Online: 15 March 2021 (15:55:33 CET)
Statistical significance measures the reliability of a result obtained from a random experiment. We investigate the number of repetitions needed for a statistical result to have a certain significance. In the first step, we consider binomially distributed variables in the example of medication testing with fixed placebo efficacy, asking how many experiments are needed in order to achieve a significance of 95 %. In the next step, we take the probability distribution of the placebo efficacy into account, which to the best of our knowledge has not been done so far. Depending on the specifics, we show that in order to obtain identical significance, it may be necessary to perform twice as many experiments than in a setting where the placebo distribution is neglected. We proceed by considering more general probability distributions and close with comments on some erroneous assumptions on probability distributions which lead, for instance, to a trivial explanation of the fat tail.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0238.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Hardware And Architecture Keywords: Multiple object tracking; Airborne video; Tracklet confidence; Hierarchical association framework
Online: 13 July 2018 (14:27:22 CEST)
Multi-object tracking (MOT) in airborne videos is a challenging problem due to the uncertain airborne vehicle motion, vibrations of the mounted camera, unreliable detections, size, appearance and motion of the moving objects as well as occlusions due to the interaction between the moving objects and with other static objects in the scene.To deal with these problems, this work proposes a four-stage Hierarchical Association framework for multiple object Tracking in Airborne video (HATA). The proposed framework combines data association-based tracking (DAT) methods and target tracking using a Compressive Tracking approach, to robustly track objects in complex airborne surveillance scenes. In each association stage, different sets of tracklets and detections are associated to efficiently handle local tracklet generation, local trajectory construction, global drifting tracklet correction and global fragmented tracklet linking. Experiments with challenging airborne video datasets show significant tracking improvement compared to existing state-of-art methods.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0110.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: COVID-19; Confidence; Health services; Basic health Unit; Hospital; Public policy.
Online: 10 October 2022 (02:12:08 CEST)
Objective: to assess level of trust in health services during COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Methods: Cross-sectional study, carried out between 2020 and 2021, among Brazilians over 18. A non-probabilistic sampling was used. Descriptive and inferential statistics were applied, using the Local Bivariate Moran’s technique was used to verify the existence of spatial dependence between the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 and trust in health services. Furthermore, multinomial regression was also used to analyze the factors associated with the confidence level, with the calculation of the Odds Ratio and with a confidence interval of 95%. Results: 50.6% reported trust in hospital services while 41.4% did not trust Primary Health Care services. With the application of the Local Bivariate Moran, both for the incidence and mortality of COVID-19, the trust in tertiary care and primary care services showed a statistically significant spatial association predominant in the Midwest (High-Low) and North (Low-High) regions of Brazil. The level of trust was associated with education, religion, region of the country and income. Conclusions: The level of trust in hospital services, more than Primary Health Care services, may be related to the population's culture of prioritizing the search for hospital care at the detriment of health promotion and disease prevention
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0119.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: second-hand cars; p-values; confidence interval; non-parametric bootstrapping; correlation
Online: 10 November 2019 (16:46:47 CET)
In developed countries, especially the big-sized ones like Australia and the USA, a car is almost an inevitable necessity to carry out daily activities. Due to this, used cars have become a great alternative to brand new cars because of their cost effectiveness. In this work, estimation of prices of used cars based on numerous factors is studied statistically. Data is based on prices of used cars sold across Australia. Statistical methods like correlation and permutation tests using linear regression model, exact tests and non-parametric bootstrapping is implemented to study the relationship of price with mileage and year of manufacture of the car using p-values and null hypothesis. Predictions are also made on the price by calculating a 95% confidence interval (CI) of median prices in small portions of the dataset. The study presents potential ideas for understanding correlation between variables and parameters in business studies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0352.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: Per-pixel classification confidence; spatial pattern; image classification; accuracy assessment; interpolation method
Online: 24 January 2022 (11:53:46 CET)
Obtaining classification confidence at the pixel level is a challenging task for accuracy assessment in remote sensing image classification. Among the various methods for estimating classification confidence at the pixel level, interpolation-based methods have drawn special attention in the literature. Even though they have been widely recognized in the literature, their usefulness has not been rigorously evaluated. This paper conducts a comprehensive evaluation of three interpolation-based methods: local error matrix method, bootstrap method, and geostatistical method. We applied each of the three methods to three representative datasets with different spatial resolutions, spectral bands, and the number of classes. We then derive the estimated classification confidence and true classification confidence and compared the results with each other using both exploratory data analysis (bi-histogram) and statistical analysis (Willmott's d and Binned classification quality). The results indicate that the three interpolation methods provide some interesting insights on various aspects of estimating per-pixel classification confidence. Unfortunately, the interpolation assumes that classification confidence is smooth across the space, which is usually not true in practice. In other words, interpolation-based methods have limited practical use.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0276.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Science Keywords: blood pressure; oscillometric measurement; statistical analysis; normality; confidence interval; deep belief networks
Online: 21 May 2018 (12:54:26 CEST)
Oscillometric blood pressure (BP) devices currently estimate a single point but do not identify fluctuations in BP or distinguish them from variations in response to physiological properties. In this paper, to analyze BP normality based on oscillometric measurements, we use statistical approaches including kurtosis, skewness, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and correlation tests. Then, to mitigate uncertainties, we use a deep neural network (DNN) to determine the confidence limits (CLs) of BP measurements based on their normality. The proposed DNN regression model decreases the standard deviation of error (SDE) of the mean error (ME) and the mean absolute error (MAE) and reduces the uncertainty of the CLs and SDEs of the proposed technique. We validate the normality of the distribution of the BP estimation distribution which fits the Gaussian distribution very well. We use a rank test in the DNN regression model to demonstrate the independence of the artificial SBP and DBP estimations. First, we perform statistical tests to verify the normality of the BP measurements for individual subjects. The proposed methodology provides accurate BP estimations and reduces the uncertainties associated with the CLs and SDEs based on the DNN regression estimator.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0108.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Information Systems Keywords: Mandarin; prosody generation; linguistic feature; break prediction; text-to-speech; punctuation confidence
Online: 16 February 2018 (15:39:58 CET)
This paper proposes two fully-automatic machine-extracted linguistic features from an unlimited text input for Mandarin prosody generation. One is the punctuation confidence (PC) which measures the likelihood of inserting a major punctuation mark (PM) at a word boundary. Another is the quotation confidence (QC) which measures the likelihood of a word string to be quoted as a meaningful or emphasized unit in text. Because a major PM in a text is highly correlated with a prosodic break, and a quoted word string plays an important role in human language understanding, the two features potentially could provide useful information for prosody generation. The idea is first realized by employing conditional random field (CRF)-based models to predict major PMs, quoted word string locations, and their associated confidences, i.e., the PC and the QC, for each word boundary. Then, the predicted punctuations and their confidences are combined with traditional contextual linguistic features to predict prosodic-acoustic features. Both objective and subjective tests showed that the prosody generation with the proposed linguistic features performed better than the one without the proposed features. So, the proposed PC and QC are promising features for Mandarin prosody generation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0017.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Marketing Keywords: Interest in modem personal taste; utilitarianism; new fashion products; self-confidence; fashion buying behaviour
Online: 1 August 2022 (09:40:17 CEST)
As a mediator variable, self-confidence is one of the most effective elements of the decision-making process of consumer behaviour. This research has studied the effects of different aspects of consuming fashion on the self-confidence and behaviour of consumers in Tehran’s clothing market. This study has considered the acceptance of new products, interest in mode and fashion, utilitarianism, and personal taste in its analysis. This research aims to understand the fashion buying behaviour amongst Iranian consumers in consideration of their attitude towards self-confidence and aspects of fashion consumption. The statistic sample is 400 consumers from Tehran’s clothing market who have been chosen based on the random availability procedure. The primary tool in this research was a questionary used to testify the assumptions and a model fit created by using structural equations and factor analysis. This research showed that the interest in mode and fashion, personal taste, utilitarianism, and new products positively impact self-confidence. In addition, the positive impact of self-confidence on fashion buying behaviour was confirmed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0615.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Algebra And Number Theory Keywords: Low-rank matrix; matrix completion; Bayesian method; de-biased estimator; uncertainty quantification; confidence interval
Online: 22 April 2021 (14:58:01 CEST)
In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0466.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: trust-based recommender system; pearson correlation coefficient; confidence; mean absolute error; precision; recall; coverage
Online: 18 November 2020 (10:50:52 CET)
Information overload is the biggest challenges nowadays for any website, especially the e-commerce website. However, this challenge arises for the fast growth of information on the web (WWW) with easy access to the internet. Collaborative filtering based recommender system is the most useful application to solve the information overload problem by filtering relevant information for the users according to their interests. But, the existing system faces some significant limitations like as data sparsity, low accuracy, cold-start and malicious attacks. To alleviate the mentioned issues, the relationship of trust incorporates in the system where it can be between the users or items, and such system is known as the trust-based recommender system (TBRS). From the user perspective, the motive of the TBRS is to utilize the reliability between the users to generate more accurate and trusted recommendations. However, the aim of the paper is to present a comparative analysis of different trust metrics in the context of the type of trust definition of TBRS. Also, the study accomplishes on twenty-four trust metrics in terms of the methodology, trust properties & measurement, validation approaches, and the experimented dataset.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0012.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: financial anxiety; insurance behavior; economic security of the person; financial confidence after COVID-19
Online: 2 August 2020 (11:01:34 CEST)
In the context of the economic and political uncertainty associated with the 2019-nCoV pandemic, it is necessary to determine the socio-psychological factors involved in the transformation of the behavior of insurance consumers under the influence of a biogenic threat. This study measures financial anxiety and its impact on the insurance behavior of Russian citizens. The correlation, comparative, and regression analyses of the financial anxiety of Russian citizens cover three stages of observation: before the start of the 2019 nCoV pandemic (“FA up to 19 nCoV; N = 766), during the period of quarantine measures announced in Russia in March 2020 (“FA 19-nCoV-1”; N = 856), and after the relaxation of quarantine measures at the end of April 2020 (“FA 19-nCoV-2”; N = 963).Psychological analysis data were obtained from the online survey “Financial anxiety (in the context of insurance)”. The questionnaire is psychometrically reliable and easy to use. It includes five measurement scales: MR1—Physical manifestations of financial incentive anxiety, MR2—With money shortages and financial uncertainty, MR3—The value of insurance coverage, MP4—Financial Confidence, and MR5—Perception of insurance and investment risks. It was found that Russian citizens consider it important to have insurance coverage for a “rainy day”, and they showed confidence in the insurance market during the biogenic crisis. However, unfortunately, during the 19-nCoV-1 and 19-nCoV-2 periods, Russian citizens did not feel financially secure, unlike in the period before 19-nCoV. Women showed high scores for physical manifestations of financial anxiety and low financial confidence in the future, in contrast to men, regardless of the observation period.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0617.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: financial anxiety; insurance behavior; economic security of the person; financial confidence after COVID-19
Online: 25 July 2020 (17:39:46 CEST)
In the context of economic and political uncertainty associated with the 2019-nCoV pandemic, it is necessary to determine the socio-psychological factors in the transformation of the behavior of insurance consumers under the influence of the biogenic threat. This study is devoted to measuring financial anxiety and its impact on the insurance behavior of Russian citizens. Correlation, comparative and regression analyzes of financial anxiety of Russian citizens cover three stages of observation: before the start of the 2019 nCoV pandemic (“FA up to 19 nCoV; N = 766), during the period of quarantine measures announced in Russia in March 2020 (“ FA 19- nCoV-1 "; N = 856) and after the relaxation of quarantine measures at the end of April 2020 (" FA 19-nCoV-2 "; N = 963). Psychological analysis data were obtained from the online survey "Financial anxiety (in the context of insurance)". The questionnaire is psychometrically reliable and easy to use, including 5 measurement scales: MR1. Physical manifestations of financial incentive anxiety, MR2. With money shortages and financial uncertainty, MR3. The value of insurance coverage, MP4. Financial Confidence, MR5. Perception of insurance and investment risks. Russian citizens considered it important to have insurance coverage on a “rainy day” and showed confidence in the insurance market during the biogenic crisis. But, unfortunately, Russian citizens during the 19-nCoV-1 and 19-nCoV-2 periods did not feel financially secure in the future, unlike the period before 19-nCoV. ”Women showed high scores for physical manifestations of financial anxiety and low financial confidence in the future, in contrast to men, regardless of the observation period.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0528.v2
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Applied Mathematics Keywords: Conformable calculus; Fractional-order financial system; ESDDFD and NSFD methods; Hyperchaotic attractor; Market confidence; Ethics risk
Online: 6 December 2021 (12:48:05 CET)
Four discrete models using the exact spectral derivative discretization finite difference (ESDDFD) method are proposed for a chaotic five-dimensional, conformable fractional derivative financial system incorporating ethics and market confidence. Since the system considered was recently studied using the conformable Euler finite difference (CEFD) method and found to be hyperchaotic, and the CEFD method was recently shown to be valid only at fractional index , the source of the hyperchaos is in question. Through numerical experiments, illustration is presented that the hyperchaos previously detected is in part an artifact of the CEFD method as it is absent from the ESDDFD models.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0100.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: cold-water coral; carbonate mound; habitat mapping; spatial prediction; image segmentation; GEOBIA; random forest; accuracy, confidence
Online: 18 January 2018 (16:08:36 CET)
Cold-water coral reefs are rich, yet fragile ecosystems found in colder oceanic waters. Knowledge of their spatial distribution on continental shelves, slopes, seamounts and ridge systems is vital for marine spatial planning and conservation. Cold-water corals frequently form conspicuous carbonate mounds of varying sizes, which are identifiable from multibeam echosounder bathymetry and derived geomorphometric attributes. However, the often large number of mounds makes manual interpretation and mapping a tedious process. We present a methodology that combines image segmentation and random forest spatial prediction with the aim to derive maps of carbonate mounds and an associated measure of confidence. We demonstrate our method based on multibeam echosounder data from Iverryggen on the mid-Norwegian shelf. We identified the image-object mean planar curvature as the most important predictor. The presence and absence of carbonate mounds is mapped with high accuracy (overall accuracy = 84.4%, sensitivity = 0.827 and specificity = 0.866). Spatially-explicit confidence in the predictions is derived from the predicted probability and whether the predictions are within or outside the modelled range of values and is generally high. We plan to apply the showcased method to other areas of the Norwegian continental shelf and slope where MBES data have been collected with the aim to provide crucial information for marine spatial planning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0717.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: opinion formation models; influence networks; online social networks; the effects of non-opinion characteristics; assimilative influence; bounded confidence
Online: 10 May 2023 (08:58:32 CEST)
The opinion dynamics literature argues that the way people perceive social influence depends not only on the opinions of interacting individuals, but also on the individuals’ non-opinion characteristics, such as age, education, gender, or place of residence. The current paper advances this line of research by studying longitudinal data that describe the opinion dynamics of a large sample (~30,000) of online social network users, all citizens of one city. Using these data, we systematically investigate the effects of users’ demographic (age, gender) and structural (degree centrality, the number of common friends) properties on opinion formation processes. We revealed that females are less easily influenced than males. Next, we found that individuals that are characterized by similar ages have more chances to reach a consensus. Besides, we report that individuals who have many common peers find an agreement more often. We also demonstrated that the impacts of these effects are virtually the same, and despite being statistically significant, are far less strong than that of opinion-related features: knowing the current opinion of an individual and, what is even more important, the distance in opinions between this individual and the person that attempts to influence the individual is much more valuable. Next, after conducting a series of simulations with an agent-based model, we revealed that accounting for non-opinion characteristics may lead to not very sound but statistically significant changes in the macroscopic predictions of the populations of opinion camps, primarily among the agents with radical opinions (≈ 3% of all votes). In turn, predictions for the populations of neutral individuals are virtually the same. Besides, we demonstrated that the accumulative effect of non-opinion features on opinion dynamics is seriously moderated by whether the underlying social network correlates with the agents’ characteristics. After applying the procedure of random shuffling (in which the agents and their characteristics were randomly scattered over the network), the macroscopic predictions have changed by ≈ 9% of all votes. What is interesting, the population of neutral agents was again not affected by this intervention.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0149.v1
Subject: Arts And Humanities, Religious Studies Keywords: Confidence tests, dictations, Jesus Christ, Maria Valtorta, mystics, punctuation marks, readability index, sentences, semantic index, syntactic index, text characters, Virgin Mary, visions, words, word interval.
Online: 7 November 2018 (09:06:01 CET)
We have studied the very large amount of literary works written by the Italian mystic Maria Valtorta to assess similarities and differences in her writings because she claims that most of them are due to mystical visions. We have used mathematical and statistical tools developed for specifically studying deep linguistic aspects of texts. The general trend indicates that the literary works explicitly attributable to Maria Valtorta differ significantly from her other literary works, that she claims are attributable to the alleged characters Jesus and Mary. Mathematically, they seem to have been written by different authors. The comparison with the Italian literature is very striking. A single author, namely Maria Valtorta, seems to be able to write texts so diverse to cover the entire mathematical range (suitable defined) of the Italian literature of seven centuries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0320.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Kritsky-Menkel; Pearson; Wilson-Hilferty; Chi; Inverse Chi; Pseudo-Weibull; estimation parameters; corrected parameters; approximate form; method of ordinary moments; method of linear moments; the method of least squares; confidence interval
Online: 17 March 2023 (09:23:31 CET)
This article presents six probability distributions from the Gamma family with three parameters, for the flood frequency analysis in hydrology. The choice of the Gamma family of statistical dis-tributions was driven by its frequent use in hydrology. In the Faculty of Hydrotechnics, the im-provement of the estimation of maximum flows and including the methodological bases for the realization of a regionalization study with the linear moments method with the corrected pa-rameters was researched, being an element of novelty. The linear moments method is better than MOM because it avoids the choice of skewness depending on the origin of the flows, practiced in Romania. The L-moments method conforms to the current trend for estimating the parameters of statistical distributions. Observed data from hydrometric stations are of relatively short length, so the statistical parameters that characterize them are of a sample that requires correction. The correction of the statistical parameters is proposed, using the method of least squares based on the inverse functions of the statistical distributions expressed with the frequency factor for L-moments. All the necessary elements for their use are presented like, quantile functions, the exact and ap-proximate relations for estimating parameters and frequency factors. A flood frequency analysis case study was carried out for the Ialomita river, to verify the proposed methodology. The per-formance of this distributions is evaluated using Kiling-Gupta and Nash-Sutcliff coefficients.