Supply chain agility and resilience are key factors for the success of manufacturing companies in their attempt to respond to dynamic changes. Circular economy, the need for optimized material flows, ad-hoc responses and personalization are some of the trends that require supply chains to become “cognitive”, i.e. able to predict trends and flexible enough in dynamic environments, ensuring optimized operational performance. Digital Twins (DTs) is a promising technology, and a lot of work is done on the factory level. In this paper, the concept of Cognitive Digital Twins (CDTs) and how they can be deployed in connected and agile supply chains is elaborated. The need for CDTs in the supply chain as well as the main CDT enablers and how they can be deployed under an operational model in agile networks is described. Emphasis is given on the modelling, cognition and governance aspects as well as on how a supply chain can be configured as a network of connected CDTs. Finally, a deployment methodology of the developed model into an example of a circular supply chain is proposed.

While increasing empirical evidence suggests that global time series forecasting models can achieve better forecasting performance than local ones, there is a research void regarding when and why the global models fail to provide a good forecast. This paper uses anomaly detection algorithms and Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to answer when and why a forecast should not be trusted. To address this issue, a dashboard was built to inform the user regarding (i) the relevance of the features for that particular forecast, (ii) which training samples most likely influenced the forecast outcome, (iii) why the forecast is considered an outlier, and (iv) provide a range of counterfactual examples to understand value changes, in the feature vector or the predicted value, can lead to a different outcome. Moreover, a modular architecture and a methodology were developed to iteratively remove noisy data instances from the train set, to enhance the overall global time series forecasting model performance. Finally, to test the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was validated on two publicly available real-world datasets.

Artificial Intelligence models are increasingly used in manufacturing to inform decision-making. Responsible decision-making requires accurate forecasts and an understanding of the models’ behavior. Furthermore, the insights into models’ rationale can be enriched with domain knowledge. This research builds explanations considering feature rankings for a particular forecast, enriching them with media news entries, datasets’ metadata, and entries from the Google Knowledge Graph. We compare two approaches (embeddings-based and semantic-based) on a real-world use case regarding demand forecasting.