Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario1), ecological development priority(Scenario2), and cropland development priority(Scenario3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low stress (SSP119), medium stress (SSP245), and high stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) Water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) By 2030, the water yield of Scenario1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing ecological development priority by 0.5%; (4) Climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 67% higher water production than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies.

Soils provide important regulating ecosystem services and have crucial implications for human well-being and environmental conservation. However, soil degradation and particularly soil erosion jeopardize the maintenance and existence of these services. This study explores the spatio-temporal relationships of soil erosion to understand the distribution patterns of sediment retention services in mainland Portugal. Based on Corine Land Cover maps from 1990 to 2018, the InVEST Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) model was used to evaluate the influence of sediment dynamics for soil and water conservation. Spatial differences in the sediment retention levels were observed within the NUTS III boundaries, showing which areas are more vulnerable to soil erosion processes. Results indicated that the Region of Leiria, Douro and the coastal regions have decreased importantly sediment retention capacity over the years. However, in most of the territory (77.52%) changes in sediment retention were little or not important (i.e., less than 5%). The statistical validation of the model proved the consistency of the results, highlighting the usefulness of this methodology to analyse the state of soil erosion in the country. These findings can be relevant to support strategies for more efficient land use planning regarding soil erosion mitigation practices.

Urbanization-induced land use transition results in a decline in ecosystem services, which has implications for regional ecological security. In order to explore the relationship between ecosystem services and land use transition, this paper utilizes the InVEST model, geographically weighted regression model to examine the impact of land use transition on ecosystem services in the Dongting Lake area (DLA). The results showed that (1) During the period 2000-2020, the intensity and motivation of land-use transition showed obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity with the variation of urbanization development. (2) Habitat quality and Carbon sequestrations showed a downward trend. In contrast, food supply followed an upward trend; soil conservation and water yield services initially increased and dropped later. The overall spatial changes in habitat quality and Carbon sequestration appear to be insignificant. Food supply shows significant differences in the plains compared to other areas; while soil conservation and water yield service shows significant changes in places other than the DLA. (3) From 2000 to 2020, land use transition dynamics, population density, GDP density, night lighting and transition intensity had mainly negative effects on ecosystem services. Only the Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) showed a positive effect on ecosystem services. The results of the research will provide valuable references for the development and implementation of spatial ecological restoration planning and land use policies in the national territory.

Based on multi-source remote sensing data, scenario analysis, and model simulation, the Pareto optimal solutions for water supply, water purification (N retention), and carbon storage and sequestration services under different scenarios were sought by adjusting its land use structure. The results showed that. In Scenario 1(S1), the water supply service needs to increase by 86.820 to 11.211 billion cubic metres, the water purification (N retention) service needs to decrease by 11,400 to 11,700 tons, and the carbon storage and sequestration service need to decrease by 2.070 to 2.487 billion tons. In Scenario 2(S2), the water supply service needs to increase by 8.243–10.666 billion cubic metres, the water purification (N retention) service needs to decrease by 11,300–1.10 million tons, and the carbon storage and sequestration service needs to decrease by 2.033 to 2.466 billion tons. In Scenario 3 (S3), the water supply service needs to increase by 7.832–11.437 billion cubic metres, the water purification (N retention) service needs to decrease by 1.16–10,800 tons, and the carbon storage and sequestration service needs to decrease by 19.220 to 2.380 billion tons. After land use optimisation and adjustment, the S3 ecological land structure is complete and consistent with the vision of ecological protection and urban development in the study area, which is the optimal scenario. After optimising the S3 ecosystem service supply pattern, the water supply, water purification (N retention), and carbon storage and sequestration services could connect the western and eastern ecosystem service supply areas, balance the overall ecosystem service supply pattern of the study area and meet the demand for ecosystem services. The results can guide regional land planning and ecosystem service management optimisation.

Habitat quality has great significance for regional ecological conservation and human welfare. In this study, we evaluated the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use and habitat quality in the temperate desert sub-region of Ordos Plateau using patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models. From 2000 to 2020, the areas of grassland, cropland, and unused land in the study area increased significantly; the areas of water bodies and woodland increased slightly; and the area of wasteland decreased significantly. Moreover, the habitat quality in the temperate desert subzone of the Ordos Plateau showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing from 2000 to 2020. The areas of lower and low habitat quality first decreased and then increased, and the overall area decreased over time. Conversely, the areas of high and higher habitat quality initially increased and then decreased, and the overall area increased over time. The area of medium habitat quality first decreased and then increased, although the overall change was minimal. Based on the PLUS model, the habitat quality of the study area in 2025 predicted under the natural development scenario was compared with that predicted under the ecological conservation scenario, showing higher habitat quality and lower habitat degradation under the ecological conservation development scenario. These results can be used to provide a scientific basis and decision reference for the sustainable use of land resources and high-quality socio-economic development in the temperate desert sub-region of the Ordos Plateau.