Snowpack seasonality in the conterminous United States (U.S.) is explored using a daily,14 km horizontal resolution gridded snow water equivalent and snow depth reanalysis product. I2calculated seasonal snowpacks using two established methods: (1) the classic Sturm approach that3requires 60 days of snow cover with a peak depth >50 cm and (2) the snow seasonality metric (SSM)4that only requires 60 days of continuous snow cover. The latter approach yields continuous values5from -1 to +1, where -1 (+1) indicates an ephemeral (seasonal) snowpack. Both approaches identify6seasonal snowpacks in western mountains and the northernmost central and eastern U.S. By relaxing7the depth constraint and providing continuous values, the SSM identifies greater areas of seasonal8snowpacks compared to the Sturm method, particularly in the upper Midwest, New England, and the9Intermountain West. Ephemeral snowpacks are identified throughout lower elevation regions of the10western U.S. and across a broad swath centered near 35°N spanning the lee of the Rocky Mountains11to the Atlantic coast. Because it lacks a depth constraint, the SSM approach is sensitive to interannual12variability, indicating it may inform the location of shallow but long-duration snowpacks at risk13of transitioning to becoming ephemeral with climatic change. A case study in Oregon during an14extreme snow drought year highlights seasonal to ephemeral snowpack transitions.

On 5-7 April 2018 a landfalling atmospheric river resulted in widespread heavy precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada. Observed snow levels during this event were among the highest snow levels recorded since observations began in 2002 and exceeded 2.75 km for 31 hours in the northern Sierra Nevada and 3.75 km for 12 hours in the southern Sierra Nevada. The anomalously high snow levels and over 80 mm of precipitation caused flooding, debris flows, and wet snow avalanches in the upper elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The origin of this atmospheric river was super typhoon Jelawat, whose moisture remnants were entrained and maintained by an extratropical cyclone in the northeast Pacific. This event was notable due to its April occurrence, as six other typhoon remnants that caused heavy precipitation with high snow levels (mean = 2.92 km) in the northern Sierra Nevada all occurred during October.

Diablo winds are dry and gusty north-northeasterly downslope windstorms that affect the Northern California. On the evening of October 8, 2017, Diablo winds contributed to the ignitions and rapid spread of the “Northern California Firestorm”, including the Tubbs Fire, which burned 2,800 homes in Santa Rosa, resulted in 22 fatalities and $1.2B USD in damages. We analyzed 18 years of data from a network of surface meteorological stations and show that Diablo winds tend to occur overnight through early morning in Fall, Winter and Spring. Conditions similar to Diablo winds occur commonly in the Sierra Nevada Mountains in addition to the area North of the San Francisco Bay Area including the Northern Coastal Ranges. Diablo winds are characterized by high wind speeds and low relative humidity, but they tend to neither be warmer than climatology nor do they have a higher gust factor, or ratio of wind gusts to mean wind speeds, than climatology.

Snowpack loss in midlatitude mountains is ubiquitously projected by Earth system models, though the magnitudes, persistence and time horizons of decline vary. Using daily downscaled hydroclimate and snow projections we examine changes in snow seasonality across the U.S. Pacific Southwest region during a simulated severe 20-year dry spell in the 21st century (2051–2070) developed as part of the 4th California Climate Change Assessment to provide a "stress test" for water resources. Across California’s mountains, substantial declines (30–100% loss) in median peak annual snow water equivalent accompany changes in snow seasonality throughout the region compared to the historic period. We find 80% of historic seasonal snowpacks transition to ephemeral conditions. Subsetting empirical-statistical wildfire projections for California by snow seasonality transition regions indicates a two-to-four-fold increase in burned area, consistent with recent observations of high elevation wildfires following extended drought conditions. By analyzing six of the major California snow-fed river systems we demonstrate snowpack reductions and seasonality transitions result in concomitant declines in annual runoff (47-58% of historic values). The negative impacts to statewide water supply reliability by the projected dry spell will likely be magnified by changes in snowpack seasonality and increased wildfire activity.