Trends, Determinants and Projected Burden of Cholecystitis and Other Gallbladder and Biliary Tract Diseases in Kazakhstan, 2012–2024: A Nationwide Retrospective Time-Series Analysis

Background/Objectives: Nationwide evidence on gallbladder disease in Central Asia remains limited. We assessed trends, care-related associations and projected burden of cholecystitis and other gallbladder diseases (ICD-10 K80–K82) in Kazakhstan. Methods: This retrospective ecological time-series study used official national statistics for 2012–2024. Rates were crude because complete age-specific annual series were unavailable. Stratified comparisons were descriptive, and reported associations represent population-level patterns rather than individual risk factors. The final analytical dataset comprised thirteen complete annual observations for each modelled indicator. Joinpoint regression identified changes in incidence trends. Negative binomial, quasi-binomial and linear models evaluated temporal associations and the 2020 pandemic disruption. Case growth was decomposed into population-size and incidence-rate components. ARIMA and explicit scenarios projected annual cases to 2039. Results: Registered incidence increased from 343.0 to 406.2 per 100,000, peaking in 2017. Annual changes were +10.6% during 2012–2017 and −4.2% during 2017–2024; the average annual percent change was +1.7% (95% confidence interval 0.2–3.2). Incidence in 2020 was lower than expected from the adjusted trend (incidence rate ratio 0.857, 95% confidence interval 0.749–0.981). Population growth accounted for 51.8% of the 24,401-case increase. Emergency-treatment rates increased by 1.6% annually, while the odds of late presentation declined by 6.2% annually and hospital stay shortened by 0.21 days annually. Central projections indicated approximately 95,000–124,000 annual cases by 2039, with wide model-based prediction intervals. Conclusions: Increasing absolute caseloads despite recent declines in registered incidence support scenario-based capacity planning. Shorter hospital stays and fewer late presentations suggest improvements in care indicators, although individual-level explanations require further investigation.