Assessing the Impact of Insecurity and Policy Uncertainty on Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria and Niger State

This study examines the relationship between sustainable development, insecurity, policy uncertainty, institutional quality, and agricultural development in Nigeria and Niger State from 2000 to 2024. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, it analyzes how these factors influence sustainable economic performance. Correlation analysis shows significant relationships among the variables at the 1% level, highlighting their interconnectedness. The ARDL results reveal differences between Nigeria and Niger State: in Nigeria, policy uncertainty positively impacts sustainable development (GDP), while insecurity notably reduces economic performance by weakening investment confidence, productivity, and stability. Conversely, the rule of law fosters growth by enhancing institutional effectiveness. In Niger State, policy uncertainty and insecurity negatively impact sustainable development (GDP), while the rule of law and overall development positively influence economic performance. Based on the CRS Cobb–Douglas production framework, the study underscores that strong institutions enhance productivity and economic resilience, whereas insecurity and uncertainty reduce total factor productivity. By integrating insecurity, policy uncertainty, and agricultural development into a single framework, the study builds on existing research and stresses the importance of institutional reforms, stronger security measures, and predictable policies to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth.