Price Formation in a Regional Goat Auction Market: Evidence from Maryland, USA

The US goat industry has changed as consumer demand has increased, but little is known about how goat characteristics and market variables affect auction prices. This study examines the drivers of goat auction prices in the Maryland goat auction market using 2,416 observations from weekly USDA auction reports from November 2018 to September 2025. We use a hedonic pricing model to estimate the price relationships among goat weight, lot size, selection grade, class, and market timing variables. The findings suggest that observable goat characteristics play an essential role in price formation. Compared with Selection 3 goats, Selection 1, Selection 1–2, and Selection 2 goats had estimated price premiums of 93.47%, 73.90%, and 48.92%, respectively. Premiums for bucks, kids, wether kids, and wethers were 20.31%, 29.95%, 24.81%, and 25.04%, respectively, compared to nannies. The relationship between live weight and price per pound is nonlinear, with expected prices increasing with weight up to around 172.9 pounds and then decreasing. Market time also influences price fluctuations. Eid al-Adha and Ramadan festivals had a favorable impact on prices across different specifications. Prices are also higher during periods of relatively limited supply. The findings indicate that goat prices at the Maryland goat auction market are determined by a combination of observable goat characteristics, class, size, and market conditions. The study provides market-specific evidence to help producers and auction participants understand price differentials and make better marketing decisions, while also providing the foundation for future research on goat price formation in other US auction markets.