Do Round Numbers Predict Price Reversals in Gold? Evidence from Daily XAUUSD Prices, 2005–2024

We test whether round-number price levels predict reversals in gold, using 5,138 daily XAUUSD bars from 2005 to 2024. For every touch of a multiple of US\(100 we record whether the close returns to the side of the level on which the day opened, and we compare the round grid with 80 placebo grids of identical spacing shifted away from round numbers. Inference is based on the round grid's rank among all 81 grids and on a month-block bootstrap. Among 232 eligible first touches (231 usable same-day observations), the same-day holding rate is 45.0% (104/231) against 49.2% for the placebo grids; the round grid ranks 72nd of 81 (rank-based p = 0.247), and no primary test survives a Holm correction. Results are similar for US\)50 levels and for other first-touch windows. We find no robust evidence that round-number levels predict reversals under this daily-bar definition.