System Dynamics of IoT-Enabled Smart Dairy Farming: Productivity, Sustainability, and Digital Transformation in Bangladesh

Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), and digital connectivity offer potential opportunities to improve dairy production and resource management, but their application in developing countries remains constrained by infrastructure, cost, and technical limitations. This study develops an integrated System Dynamics model to examine the potential effects of digital technology adoption on dairy production, livestock development, resource recovery, and economic activities in Bangladesh. Drawing on a systematic literature review and secondary evidence, the model represents technology-related improvements through scenario-dependent efficiency coefficients rather than physically implemented IoT systems or trained AI algorithms. The study examined baseline and technology adoption scenarios over 60 months, supported by parameter sensitivity analysis. The simulations show higher milk production, livestock development, and resource recovery outputs under the technology adoption assumptions. Sensitivity analysis, configured for 200 simulations across three technology-related parameters, indicates increasing variation in selected outputs over time. The findings demonstrate how digital technology assumptions can influence interconnected production and resource flows, while highlighting the importance of connectivity, affordability, and institutional support. The framework supports exploratory scenario assessment rather than empirical prediction of individual dairy farms.