Post-Conflict Vulnerability in‘Montes de María’ Tropical Dry Forests

Tropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. This study examines how hydro-climatic variability and demographic change interact to shape vegetation trajectories in the Montes de María region of Colombia, one of the largest remaining fragments of neotropical dry forest. Using the 2016 Peace Accord as a historical context, we integrate dasymetric population grids (2005-2018), CHIRPS-derived rainfall anomalies (2003-2007 vs. 2016-2020), and Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index composites (2008-2010 vs. 2021-2022) within a Geographically Weighted Regression framework. Results reveal marked spatial non-stationarity and improve on a global model (adjusted R² rising from 0.049 to 0.426, with a concurrent AICc reduction of 193.5 points). Contrary to the assumption that demographic recovery drives forest degradation, population growth is associated exclusively with vegetation greening. Climatic effects are locally significant across a larger share of the region but vary in direction, indicating that rainfall anomalies do not produce uniform ecological outcomes. These findings suggest that post-conflict vegetation change in Montes de María cannot be reduced to a single dominant driver, and that displacement legacies, resettlement, and climatic variability interact differently across the landscape.