Overcoming the Insurance Protection Gap in Tajikistan: A Nationally Contextualized Model of Catastrophe Risk Insurance

The study considers the development of a nationally contextualized model of catastrophe risk insurance in the Republic of Tajikistan (RT) as an instrument for overcoming the insurance protection gap. The topic is relevant for RT due to high natural vulnerability, significant role of agriculture, hydropower and transport corridors, as well as the limited capacity of the national insurance market. Insurance protection against catastrophic risks cannot be reduced to a shortage of insurance lines, but has a complex institutional nature, encompassing legal, financial, informational, and behavioral constraints. The methodological basis is comparative institutional analysis. Tajikistan is considered as the main case, while China’s dirigiste model is used as a comparative reference point. The study also examines international approaches to managing natural disaster risks, parametric insurance, insurance pools, reinsurance, and public-private mechanisms for distributing catastrophic losses. Results. Reasonable solution for RT is not a universal insurance programme, but a hybrid multi-level system. The proposed model includes five interrelated elements: the state regulatory framework, a national insurance operator, a national insurance or reinsurance pool, a parametric level of insurance protection, and limited compulsory liability insurance in high-risk segments. A special role is assigned to the State insurer “Tojiksugurta” as a potential institutional hub for launching pilot products, accumulating insurance statistics, and facilitating interaction with the state, policyholders, and international partners. The insurance protection gap in Tajikistan can be bridged only through a combination of insurance instruments, state regulation, subsidization, reinsurance, data infrastructure, social protection, and the phased implementation of pilot mechanisms.