Canada Post: A Scenario-Based Net Present Value Model for Public Enterprise Restructuring in the AI-Driven Economy

Canada Post faces a structural financial crisis driven by declining letter-mail volumes, rising operating costs, intensifying parcel competition, and the rapid transformation of logistics through artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. This paper develops and applies a Scenario-Based Net Present Value (SNPV) model to evaluate whether restructuring can restore the long-term financial sustainability of a public enterprise while preserving service obligations. Drawing on comparative public administration, postal economics, international postal reforms, and the experience of Japan Post Holdings, the study examines a hybrid restructuring strategy combining AI-driven automation, postal banking, lending, insurance services, and expanded community-based services. The results show that the low scenario remains financially unfavourable, whereas the base scenario generates an SNPV of CAD $15.98 billion and a Benefit–Cost Ratio (BCR) of 1.08. The high scenario produces an SNPV of CAD $383.26 billion and a BCR of 2.66, although it is explicitly treated as an upper-bound sensitivity case rather than an expected outcome. An automation-only sensitivity case remains financially unfavourable, indicating that technological modernization alone is insufficient under the model assumptions. The findings suggest that long-term financial sustainability depends primarily on combining technological modernization with institutional diversification while preserving the broader public value of universal postal infrastructure. The study contributes a quantitative framework for evaluating Crown corporation restructuring and broader public-enterprise adaptation in the AI economy.