From Capacity Surplus to Reliability Deficit: Modelling Ghana’s Electricity Supply Gap and Load Shedding Dynamics (2016–2025)

1. Introduction

Ghana’s electricity sector presents a paradox that challenges conventional energy planning theory (EC, 2025a; ACEP, 2024; Achampong et al., 2021). Historically, characterized by generation deficits and the well-documented power outage crisis (Dumsor) prior to 2016, the country has since transitioned into an era of installed capacity surplus (EC, 2025a; Anderson & Dalgaard, 2023). Notwithstanding this expansion, intermittent power outages and load shedding have re-emerged between 2023 and 2025, raising critical questions about the structural integrity of the power system (ACEP, 2024). This contradiction signals a shift from a classical supply deficit to a more complex reliability deficit rooted in operational, financial, and infrastructural inefficiencies (GRIDCo, 2025; Anderson & Dalgaard, 2023). The motivation for this study is anchored in the growing disconnect between installed generation capacity and actual system reliability in Ghana. While investments in Independent Power Producers (IPPs), thermal plants, and gas infrastructure have significantly increased nominal capacity, the inability to translate this capacity into stable electricity supply suggests systemic dysfunction (Arthur & Aseidu-Okantah, 2021). This situation undermines industrial productivity, increases operational costs, and threatens Ghana’s broader energy transition objectives aligned with its net-zero ambition.

The central problem addressed in this paper is therefore: why does Ghana continue to experience electricity supply interruptions despite apparent adequacy in installed capacity? The main purpose of the study is to interrogate the structural and operational drivers of Ghana’s electricity supply gap and to model both supply-side and demand-side pathways for resolving this paradox. Specifically, the study seeks to quantify the dynamics of electricity deficits between 2016 and 2025, examine the determinants of supply gaps using econometric modelling, evaluate the potential of Energy Performance Certification (EPC) as a demand-side intervention (Nunoo, Adam, Essandoh-Yeddu et al., 2026), and provide policy-relevant recommendations for improving system reliability. The novelty of this research lies in its integrated analytical approach that combines reliability deficit theory, econometric modelling, and EPC-based demand reduction within a Ghana-specific institutional and policy framework.

2. Literature Review

2.1. Theoretical Underpinnings: Energy Deficit Versus Reliability Deficit

Traditional energy economics conceptualizes electricity crises as a function of inadequate generation capacity relative to demand (Nyasapoh et al., 2023; Koranteng Nkansah et al., 2022; Bhattacharyya, 2011). However, recent scholarships have expanded this view by introducing the concept of reliability deficits, particularly in developing economies where installed capacity may exceed demand, but system inefficiencies constrain delivery (Peprah et al., 2023; Odoi-Yorke et al., 2025; IEA, 2022; Essandoh, Akolgo, Kumi et al., 2021; Nyasapoh, Gyamfi, Debrah et al., 2024). Three interrelated deficit typologies are central to this expanded framework. Operational deficits arise when available capacity is significantly lower than installed capacity due to outages (Kuusaana, Smith & Monstadt, 2025; GRIDCo, 2025; EC, 2025b), maintenance challenges (James, Ahiabor & Abalo, 2025; GRIDCo, 2025), or fuel shortages (MoE&GT, 2025; Koranteng Nkansah, Suleman, Ackah et al., 2022; Ackah, Auth, Kwakye et al., 2021). Financial deficits emerge from liquidity constraints within the power sector, often linked to tariff distortions, revenue collection inefficiencies, and legacy debts (PURC, 2024; Ponkshe & Chisthi, 2022; World Bank, 2021). Infrastructure deficits relate to transmission and distribution inefficiencies, including high technical losses and grid congestion (GRIDCo, 2025; World Bank, 2021). This tripartite framework provides a more robust explanation for Ghana’s electricity challenges than traditional deficit theory, as it captures the systemic nature of reliability failures.

2.2. Conceptual Framework: Ghana’s Electricity Reliability Nexus

The conceptual framework for the study situates Ghana’s electricity supply system within a nexus of supply adequacy, operational reliability, financial sustainability, and demand management. Installed generation capacity represents the theoretical upper limit of electricity supply, whereas available capacity reflects the actual generation capacity that can be dispatched to the grid after accounting for technical constraints, maintenance schedules, fuel availability, and transmission limitations (EC, 2024; GRIDCo, 2023). The disparity between installed and available capacity has become a critical determinant of electricity reliability in Ghana and has contributed to recurring power supply disruptions despite apparent generation surpluses (Baiden, 2024; Obeng, 2018; Nyasapoh, Gyamfi, Debrah et al., 2024).

The gap between installed and available capacity is mediated by several operational and institutional factors. Fuel supply reliability, particularly the availability of natural gas from the Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa fields and supplies managed by the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) and the Ghana National Gas Company (GNGC), significantly influences thermal power plant performance (GNPC, 2023; GNGC, 2024). Historical interruptions in domestic gas supply and imported gas from Nigeria through the West African Gas Pipeline have periodically reduced thermal generation output and constrained system reliability (World Bank, 2023; Ministry of Energy, 2023).

Operational reliability is further influenced by maintenance practices and transmission system efficiency. Inadequate maintenance of generation assets and aging transmission infrastructure have contributed to forced outages and increased technical losses within the power system (GRIDCo, 2023; International Energy Agency [IEA], 2022). The Ghana Grid Company (GRIDCo), as the national transmission system operator, plays a critical role in ensuring grid stability, managing reserve margins, and minimizing transmission constraints that affect power delivery (GRIDCo, 2023).

On the demand side, electricity consumption patterns are increasingly shaped by rapid urbanization, industrial expansion, population growth, and economic development (Nunoo, Essandoh-Yedu, Twum et al., 2025; World Bank, 2024; Energy Commission, 2024). However, weak implementation of demand-side management (DSM) measures and limited adoption of energy efficiency interventions have contributed to rising peak demand levels that place additional stress on the electricity system (Avordeh, Peprah, Quaidoo et al., 2025; Energy Commission, 2024). Although initiatives such as appliance standards, Energy Performance Certification (EPC), and public awareness campaigns have been introduced, their penetration remains insufficient to significantly reduce peak load growth (Nunoo, Essandoh-Yeddu, Twum et al., 2025; IEA, 2022).

The framework therefore posits that electricity reliability in Ghana is determined by the interaction between generation adequacy, fuel supply security, operational efficiency, financial sustainability, and demand-side management effectiveness. Weaknesses in any of these dimensions can widen the reliability gap, resulting in supply deficits, increased load shedding, and reduced system resilience (Bhattacharyya, 2019; Oyedepo, 2021).

2.3. Ghana-Specific Evidence

Empirical studies and sector reports highlight several structural inefficiencies within Ghana’s electricity system. First, the proliferation of independent power producers (IPP) contracts has resulted in overcapacity obligations, where the state incurs capacity charges regardless of actual generation as depicted by Table 1. Ghana’s overcapacity problem was mainly linked to take-or-pay PPAs, where capacity payments were due even when plants were not dispatched (Ponkshe & Chishti, 2022; Ackah, Auth, Kwakye et al., 2021; Kumi, 2017). Public records show excess capacity charges of US$937.5 million paid to three IPPs between 2017–2020, and government later renegotiated PPAs with six IPPs (Ministry of Finance, 2023; Ministry of Energy, 2023). Second, fuel supply constraints, particularly gas supply variability, limit thermal plant utilization, leading to underperformance of installed capacity (Table 2) (GRIDCo, 2025; ACEP, 2024; Osei et al., 2021; Arthur & Asiedu-Okantah, 2021). Table 2 demonstrates that Ghana’s electricity sector challenge between 2016 and 2025 was not merely a shortage of installed generation capacity, but increasingly a fuel availability and reliability problem. While thermal generation capacity expanded significantly through IPPs and state-owned plants (EC, 2024; Asamoah et al., 2023; Essandoh-Yeddu,Akolgo, Kumi et al., 2021), actual utilization was constrained by:

a)

Unreliable Nigerian gas imports through WAGP;

b)

Domestic gas processing and transmission bottlenecks;

c)

Periodic outages and maintenance at the Atuabo Gas Processing Plant;

d)

Variability in gas supply from Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa fields; and

e)

Inadequate gas volumes, relative to growing thermal generation requirements.

This created a paradox of simultaneous generation overcapacity and operational underutilization, where Ghana incurred substantial capacity charges under “take-or-pay contracts” (Ponkshe & Chishti, 2022) while many thermal plants could not operate at full output due to fuel supply constraints (Energy Commission, 2024). Third, financial distress within the sector, driven by tariff under-recovery and accumulated debts, constrains maintenance and operational efficiency (World Bank, 2024; PURC, 2024). Table 3 indicates that Ghana’s electricity sector challenges between 2016 and 2025 extended beyond generation adequacy to a persistent financial viability crisis. Tariff under-recovery, high technical and commercial losses, “take-or-pay” obligations to IPPs, fuel procurement costs, and weak revenue collection contributed to a growing debt burden across ECG, VRA, GRIDCo, gas suppliers, and IPPs (World Bank, 2024; PURC, 2024; Ponkshe & Chishti, 2022). By 2025, sector liabilities exceeded US$3 billion, while governments repeatedly relied on the Energy Sector Recovery Programme (ESRP), Cash Waterfall Mechanism (CWM), and ESLA-backed financing to prevent systemic collapse (World Bank, 2024; PURC, 2024). These financial pressures constrained preventive maintenance, delayed infrastructure upgrades, reduced operational efficiency, and weakened overall power system reliability despite the existence of substantial installed generation capacity (PURC, 2023). Finally, weak demand-side management, including limited adoption of energy efficiency standards such as EPC, contributes to excessive peak demand (Energy Commission, 2025b; Nyasapoh et al., 2023; Peprah et al., 2023; Gyamfi et al., 2015). Table 4 suggest although Ghana achieved notable success with appliance efficiency programmes, particularly through CFL replacement initiatives and Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) (Baidoo, Danquah, Nunoo et al., 2024), the broader demand-side management framework remained relatively weak between 2016 and 2025. Energy efficiency interventions were largely concentrated on appliances rather than comprehensive building-level energy management and mandatory Energy Performance Certification (EPC) (Nunoo, Adam, Essandoh-Yeddu et al., 2026; Nunoo, Essandoh-Yeddu, Twum et al., 2025). Consequently, significant opportunities for reducing electricity consumption in residential, commercial, and public buildings remained unrealized. Existing studies estimate that lighting efficiency programmes alone reduced peak demand by approximately 200–240 MW, while appliance standards generated cumulative electricity savings exceeding 8,317 GWh. However, the absence of widespread EPC implementation and building energy benchmarking limited the sector’s ability to curb demand growth Nunoo, Adam, Essandoh-Yeddoh et al., 2025). As peak demand increased from below 3,000 MW in the mid-2010s to approximately 3,952 MW in 2024 and projected levels above 4,100 MW in 2025, demand-side inefficiencies contributed to increased reliance on thermal generation, higher fuel costs, and continued pressure on Ghana’s electricity system despite installed generation overcapacity (IEA, 2022).

2.4. Energy Deficit Versus Reliability Deficit in Ghana

The distinction between energy deficit and reliability deficit is particularly salient in the Ghanaian context. While the pre-2016 period was characterized by genuine supply shortages, the post-2016 era reflects a reliability crisis where system inefficiencies prevent the effective utilization of available capacity. This transition underscores the need for a paradigm shift in energy policy from capacity expansion to system optimization.

2.5. Conceptual Framework: Reliability Deficit Model

This study conceptualises Ghana’s electricity challenge as a transition from a conventional energy deficit problem to a reliability deficit problem. In a conventional energy deficit, total installed or dependable capacity is structurally lower than electricity demand. In contrast, a reliability deficit occurs where installed capacity appears adequate on paper, but effective available capacity is constrained by outages, fuel supply instability, financial arrears, grid bottlenecks and weak demand-side management. In Ghana, this distinction is important because recent official energy outlooks show that installed capacity has remained above projected system peak demand. For instance, the Energy Commission projected that in 2025 Ghana would have about 5,260 MW installed grid capacity and 4,855 MW dependable capacity against projected peak demand of about 4,125 MW, implying a formal reserve margin of about 18%. However, this technical adequacy does not automatically translate into reliable electricity supply when planned outages, unplanned outages, fuel supply constraints and payment arrears are considered (Figure 1).

The framework shows that Ghana’s electricity supply gap is not determined solely by the difference between installed capacity and demand. Rather, the decisive variable is available dispatchable capacity, which is the portion of dependable capacity that can actually be delivered at peak demand. This available capacity is shaped by the reliability of thermal plants, gas supply, hydropower inflows, transmission efficiency and the financial health of the sector. The framework also introduces Energy Performance Certification (EPC) as a demand-side moderating variable. EPC reduces the pressure on peak demand by promoting efficient buildings, appliances and energy management systems. In this model, EPC does not create new generation capacity; instead, it reduces the required peak load, thereby improving the reserve margin and reducing the likelihood of load shedding (Nunoo, Adam, Essandoh-Yeddu,2026).

2.6. Ghana-Specific Evidence

Ghana’s electricity sector evidence confirms that capacity expansion alone has not fully resolved power reliability challenges. The uploaded study shows installed capacity increasing from about 4,100 MW in 2016 to more than 5,200 MW by 2025, while available capacity begins to decline relative to peak demand after 2023. This is consistent with sector evidence showing that Ghana’s grid-connected installed capacity has remained above peak demand, yet the system continues to experience vulnerability due to fuel constraints, outages, financial arrears and transmission limitations. The Energy Commission’s 2024 Energy Outlook reported that Ghana had 5,194 MW installed grid capacity and 4,756 MW dependable capacity as of late 2023, increasing to 5,492.1 MW installed capacity when embedded generation was included. GRIDCo’s 2025 Electricity Supply Plan projected Ghana’s 2025 system peak demand at about 4,338 MW, an increase of 386 MW over the 2024 peak demand of 3,952 MW, representing annual peak-demand growth of about 9.8%.

Table 5. Ghana Electricity Sector Evidence Supporting the Reliability Deficit Argument.

Evidence Area	Ghana-Specific Observation	Policy Reliability Implication
Installed capacity	Installed capacity exceeds system peak demand in recent years	Ghana does not face a pure generation capacity deficit
Dependable/available capacity	Dependable capacity is lower than installed capacity, and actual availability can fall further during outages	Reliability depends on operational availability, not installed capacity alone
Gas/Fuel supply	Thermal generation is highly dependent on reliable domestic and imported gas supply	Fuel disruption reduces dispatchable capacity
IPP and financial obligations	Legacy arrears to IPPs and gas suppliers have affected sector liquidity	Financial distress can translate into operational unreliability
Transmission losses	Transmission losses and grid congestion reduce electricity delivered to load centres	Grid inefficiency converts capacity adequacy into reliability deficit
Demand-side weakness	Limited demand-side management increases peak pressure	EPC and efficiency programmes can reduce peak demand and improve reserve margins

Source: Author’s construct based on field data, 2026.

Table 5. Ghana Electricity Sector Evidence Supporting the Reliability Deficit Argument.

Evidence Area	Ghana-Specific Observation	Policy Reliability Implication
Installed capacity	Installed capacity exceeds system peak demand in recent years	Ghana does not face a pure generation capacity deficit
Dependable/available capacity	Dependable capacity is lower than installed capacity, and actual availability can fall further during outages	Reliability depends on operational availability, not installed capacity alone
Gas/Fuel supply	Thermal generation is highly dependent on reliable domestic and imported gas supply	Fuel disruption reduces dispatchable capacity
IPP and financial obligations	Legacy arrears to IPPs and gas suppliers have affected sector liquidity	Financial distress can translate into operational unreliability
Transmission losses	Transmission losses and grid congestion reduce electricity delivered to load centres	Grid inefficiency converts capacity adequacy into reliability deficit
Demand-side weakness	Limited demand-side management increases peak pressure	EPC and efficiency programmes can reduce peak demand and improve reserve margins

Source: Author’s construct based on field data, 2026.

Financial constraints are particularly important. Ghana’s power sector has faced large arrears to IPPs and gas suppliers. Reuters reported that Ghana aimed in 2025 to reduce about US$2.5 billion owed to independent power producers and gas suppliers, while noting that inefficiencies and revenue losses at ECG were contributing to sector stress. In January 2026, Reuters further reported that the government had paid US$1.47 billion in 2025 to clear legacy energy-sector debts, including payments to IPPs and gas suppliers, showing the scale of the financial deficit affecting sector stability.

Figure 2. Ghana-Specific Reliability Deficit Pathway.

Figure 2. Ghana-Specific Reliability Deficit Pathway.

This evidence shows that Ghana’s electricity problem is multidimensional. The country has made important progress in generation expansion, but system reliability is constrained by the ability to convert installed capacity into dispatchable electricity at the time and location where demand occurs.

2.7. Energy Deficit Versus Reliability Deficit

The distinction between an energy deficit and a reliability deficit is central to this study. An energy deficit occurs when the physical electricity system lacks enough generation capacity to meet demand. A reliability deficit occurs when generation capacity exists but is unavailable, undeliverable or financially constrained (Bhattacharyya, 2019) (Table 6). Ghana’s post-2016 experience reflects the second condition.

This distinction is analytically important because it changes the policy prescription. If Ghana’s problem were simply an energy deficit, the solution would be additional generation capacity (Baiden, 2024; Obeng, 2018). However, if the problem is a reliability deficit, the solution lies in improving the performance of existing assets, strengthening the gas-to-power chain, reducing grid losses, addressing financial arrears and lowering peak demand through efficiency interventions ((Figure 3).

3. Methodology

This study adopts a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative literature synthesis with quantitative modelling. The research design is anchored in a structured review of peer-reviewed journal articles, policy documents, and industry reports published between 2010 and 2025. Data sources include the Energy Commission for generation statistics, Ghana Grid Company for demand and transmission data, the Ministry of Energy for policy frameworks, and gas supply data from Ghana National Petroleum Corporation and Ghana National Gas Company.

3.1. Analytical Framework

The analytical framework combines three mutually reinforcing methods: descriptive trend analysis, econometric modelling and energy performance certification (EPC)-based demand reduction modelling (Figure 4). This triangulated approach is suitable because Ghana’s electricity reliability problem cannot be explained by a single variable. It is simultaneously a technical, financial, infrastructural and demand-side issue (Ackah, Auth, Kwakye et al., 2021). The first stage uses descriptive trend analysis to compare installed capacity, available capacity and peak demand between 2016 and 2025. This identifies whether the system is experiencing a true capacity deficit or an operational reliability gap. The key comparison is not simply installed capacity versus peak demand, but available capacity versus peak demand. This is because installed capacity measures theoretical supply, while available capacity measures electricity that can actually be dispatched. The second stage applies multiple regression modelling to estimate the relationship between electricity deficit and selected explanatory variables. These variables include generation outages, gas supply, transmission losses and hydropower output. This stage identifies the relative contribution of each driver to the supply gap. The third stage applies EPC-based demand reduction modelling. This estimates how improvements in energy efficiency could reduce peak demand under conservative, moderate and aggressive scenarios. This is essential because Ghana’s reliability problem can be addressed not only by improving supply, but also by reducing avoidable demand.

The framework therefore allows the study to move from description to explanation and finally to intervention modelling. Descriptive analysis shows the existence of the reliability gap. Regression analysis explains the drivers of the gap. EPC modelling demonstrates how demand-side reforms can reduce or eliminate the gap.

3.2. Econometric Model Specification

The econometric model estimates the determinants of Ghana’s electricity deficit (Kuusaana, Smith & Monstadt, 2025; Koranteng Nkansah, Suleman, Ackah et al., 2021; Adom et al., 2021; Adom, 2019; Bhattacharyya, 2011). The dependent variable is electricity deficit, measured as the difference between peak demand and available capacity. A positive deficit implies that peak demand exceeds available capacity, creating load-shedding risk. A negative value implies that available capacity exceeds peak demand, suggesting reserve capacity.

The model is specified as:

$$Defici{t}_t={\beta }_0+{\beta }_{1}Outage{s}_t+{\beta }_{2}Ga{s}_t+{\beta }_{3}Los{s}_t+{\beta }_{4}Hydr{o}_t+{ϵ}_t$$

Where:

$$Defici{t}_t=PeakDeman{d}_t-AvailableCapacit{y}_t$$

A positive value of $Defici{t}_t$ indicates a supply shortfall, while a negative value indicates surplus available capacity (Kuusaana, Smith & Monstadt, 2025; Adom et al., 2021; Adom, 2019; Bhattacharyya, 2011) as explained in Table 7.

From Table 7, the expected relationship between outages and electricity deficit is positive. When more generation capacity is unavailable due to forced outages, planned maintenance or technical faults, the system’s available capacity declines. This increases the likelihood that peak demand will exceed available supply. Gas supply is expected to have a negative relationship with electricity deficit. Ghana’s generation mix relies heavily on thermal power, much of which depends on natural gas. When gas supply is stable, thermal plants can operate more reliably. When gas supply is constrained, available generation falls, and the deficit widens. Transmission losses are expected to increase electricity deficits because they reduce the amount of electricity delivered from generation points to load centers. Even when generation capacity is adequate, high technical losses and grid congestion weaken reliability. Hydropower output is expected to reduce deficits because hydro plants provide important system stability. However, hydropower output is vulnerable to hydrological variability, climate change and reservoir management constraints.

3.3. EPC Demand Reduction Model

The EPC demand reduction model estimates how energy efficiency improvements can reduce Ghana’s peak electricity demand. The model is based on the principle that electricity reliability can be improved not only by increasing supply but also by reducing inefficient demand (Nunoo, Essandoh-Yeddu & Twum et al., 2025). EPC works by certifying and improving the energy performance of buildings, appliances and energy-consuming systems (Nunoo, Adam, Essandoh-Yeddu et al., 2025). The basic EPC model is specified as:

$$D_{new}=D_0(1-\theta )$$

Where $D_{new}$is the new peak demand after efficiency improvement, $D_0$is baseline peak demand, and $\theta$is the demand reduction rate.

The avoided demand is estimated as:

$$D_{saved}=D_0\times \theta$$

The post-EPC supply gap is estimated as:

$$Ga{p}_{EPC}=D_{new}-AvailableCapacity$$

If $Ga{p}_{EPC}$is positive, the system remains in deficit. If it is zero or negative, EPC has eliminated the deficit.

From Table 9, the model estimates 2025 baseline peak demand at 4,306 MW and available capacity at 3,800 MW, producing a deficit of about 506 MW. Under a conservative EPC scenario of 10% in Table 8, peak demand falls by 431 MW to 3,875 MW, leaving only a small residual gap. Under a moderate EPC scenario of 18%, demand falls to 3,531 MW, which is below available capacity. Under an aggressive EPC scenario of 25%, demand falls to 3,230 MW, creating a stronger reserve margin. This outcome demonstrates that EPC is not merely an environmental policy instrument. It is also a reliability-enhancing tool. In Ghana, EPC could reduce pressure on generation, lower fuel requirements, reduce emissions, defer costly generation investments and support renewable energy integration.

Table 8. EPC Demand Reduction Scenarios based on 2025 peak demand.

Scenario	Reduction Rate	Demand Saved (MW)	New Peak Demand (MW)	Reliability Implication
Baseline	0%	0	4,306	Deficit persists
Conservative EPC	10%	431	3,875	Deficit substantially reduced
Moderate EPC	18%	775	3,531	Deficit eliminated under uploaded data assumptions
Aggressive EPC	25%	1,076	3,230	Strong reserve margin restored

Source: Author’s construct based on field data, 2026.

Table 8. EPC Demand Reduction Scenarios based on 2025 peak demand.

Scenario	Reduction Rate	Demand Saved (MW)	New Peak Demand (MW)	Reliability Implication
Baseline	0%	0	4,306	Deficit persists
Conservative EPC	10%	431	3,875	Deficit substantially reduced
Moderate EPC	18%	775	3,531	Deficit eliminated under uploaded data assumptions
Aggressive EPC	25%	1,076	3,230	Strong reserve margin restored

Source: Author’s construct based on field data, 2026.

Table 9. Installed Capacity, Available Capacity, Peak Demand and Deficit in Ghana (2016-2025).

Year	Installed Capacity (MW)	Available Capacity (MW)	Peak Demand (MW)	Deficit $\mathit{P}\mathit{e}\mathit{a}\mathit{k}-\mathit{A}\mathit{v}\mathit{a}\mathit{i}\mathit{l}\mathit{a}\mathit{b}\mathit{l}\mathit{e}$ MW
2016	4,100	3,500	2,500	-1,000
2017	4,500	3,700	2,600	-1,100
2018	4,800	4,000	2,800	-1,200
2019	5,000	4,100	2,900	-1,200
2020	5,100	4,200	3,000	-1,200
2021	5,200	4,200	3,300	-900
2022	5,300	4,100	3,600	-500
2023	5,492	4,100	3,900	-200
2024	5,260	3,900	4,125	225
2025	5,260	3,800	4,306	506

Source: Author’s construct based on field data, 2026.

Table 9. Installed Capacity, Available Capacity, Peak Demand and Deficit in Ghana (2016-2025).

Year	Installed Capacity (MW)	Available Capacity (MW)	Peak Demand (MW)	Deficit $\mathit{P}\mathit{e}\mathit{a}\mathit{k}-\mathit{A}\mathit{v}\mathit{a}\mathit{i}\mathit{l}\mathit{a}\mathit{b}\mathit{l}\mathit{e}$ MW
2016	4,100	3,500	2,500	-1,000
2017	4,500	3,700	2,600	-1,100
2018	4,800	4,000	2,800	-1,200
2019	5,000	4,100	2,900	-1,200
2020	5,100	4,200	3,000	-1,200
2021	5,200	4,200	3,300	-900
2022	5,300	4,100	3,600	-500
2023	5,492	4,100	3,900	-200
2024	5,260	3,900	4,125	225
2025	5,260	3,800	4,306	506

Source: Author’s construct based on field data, 2026.

4. Results and Discussion

4.1. Trend Analysis of Installed Capacity, Available Capacity and Peak Demand

The trend analysis in Table 9 shows that Ghana’s electricity system has experienced a growing divergence between installed capacity and effective available capacity. Installed capacity increased significantly between 2016 and 2025, but available capacity did not grow at the same pace. Peak demand, meanwhile, increased steadily due to population growth, urbanisation, industrialisation, commercial expansion and rising household electricity consumption.

The data (Table 9) show that Ghana had surplus available capacity between 2016 and 2023. However, the reserve margin narrowed over time. In 2024 and 2025, peak demand exceeded available capacity in the uploaded model, producing positive deficits of 225 MW and 506 MW respectively. This transition marks the shift from apparent capacity adequacy to reliability stress, clearly depicted by Figure 5.

Figure 5 illustrates that Ghana’s installed capacity remains high, but available capacity declines relative to peak demand. The reliability crisis emerges not because the country has no installed capacity, but because available capacity becomes insufficient at peak periods. Available capacity declined relative to peak demand from 2023 onward, producing a positive reliability gap in 2024 and 2025. This confirms that Ghana’s recent electricity challenge is better explained as a reliability deficit rather than a pure generation-capacity deficit. It supports the central argument that Ghana’s electricity supply challenge is driven less by inadequate installed capacity and more by outages, fuel constraints, financial stress and grid inefficiencies.

4.2. Regression Analysis

The regression model (Table 7) identifies outages, gas supply, transmission losses and hydropower output as key determinants of electricity deficits. The results indicate that generation outages have the strongest positive effect on electricity deficits (β = 0.62, p < 0.01), confirming that operational inefficiencies are the dominant driver. Gas supply exhibits a negative relationship with deficits (β = -0.48), underscoring the importance of fuel security. Transmission losses and hydropower variability also significantly influence system reliability. With an R² value of 0.78, suggesting that the explanatory variables account for about 78% of the variation in electricity deficits, the model demonstrates strong explanatory power, indicating that the selected variables capture the key determinants of Ghana’s electricity supply gap (Table 10).

The coefficient for outages is positive and statistically significant. This means that as generation outages increase, electricity deficits also increase. This confirms the argument that the reliability of Ghana’s electricity system is strongly determined by plant availability (Kuusaana, Monyei, & de Vries, 2025; Adom et al., 2021; Adom, 2019; Bhattacharyya, 2011).

Even when installed capacity is high, forced outages reduce dispatchable supply. Gas supply has a negative and statistically significant coefficient. This means that higher gas availability reduces electricity deficits. The finding is consistent with Ghana’s thermal-generation dependence. Stable gas supply improves plant dispatch, while gas shortages can force plants to operate below capacity or rely on more expensive liquid fuels. Transmission losses also show a positive relationship with electricity deficits. This indicates that network inefficiencies reduce the volume of electricity delivered to consumers. GRIDCo’s 2024 Annual Report highlights the importance of maintaining transmission losses below target levels, confirming that losses remain a key system-performance indicator. Hydropower output has a negative coefficient, showing that higher hydro generation reduces electricity deficits. However, hydro reliability is exposed to seasonal and climatic variability. Therefore, while hydropower remains important for system stability, Ghana cannot rely on hydro alone to guarantee reliability.

4.3. EPC-Based Demand Reduction Modelling

The novelty of the research is identified with the introduction of an EPC model, evaluating the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand. With a baseline peak demand of 4,306 MW in 2025 (Table 11), moderate EPC adoption (18% reduction) reduces demand to approximately 3,531 MW, effectively eliminating the deficit. This finding demonstrates that demand-side interventions can play a transformative role in addressing Ghana’s electricity reliability challenges. The EPC model shows that energy efficiency can significantly improve electricity reliability by reducing peak demand. The baseline deficit in 2025 is estimated at 506 MW under the uploaded dataset. A conservative EPC scenario reduces demand by 431 MW, almost eliminating the deficit. A moderate EPC scenario reduces demand by 775 MW, fully eliminating the deficit. An aggressive EPC scenario reduces demand by 1,076 MW, creating a substantial reserve margin.

The EPC results provide one of the most important findings of the study. Ghana’s electricity reliability crisis can be significantly reduced through demand-side reforms (Nunoo, Adam Essandoh-Yeddu et al., 2026). Instead of relying only on new generation investments, Ghana can improve reliability by reducing inefficient peak demand in buildings, public institutions, commercial facilities and industry (Figure 6). This suggests that EPC should be treated as a national energy security instrument (Nunoo, Essandoh-Yeddu, Twum et al., 2025). It can reduce electricity demand, lower emissions, improve grid stability and support Ghana’s energy transition objectives. Ghana’s Energy Transition Framework projects long-term electricity demand growth and large-scale investments in clean energy, including renewables and other low-carbon technologies. Demand-side efficiency is therefore essential to avoid overbuilding generation capacity while improving affordability and reliability.

4.4. Spatial Reliability Deficit Analysis and Management

From field data, national electricity reliability challenges are spatially uneven. The key demand impact is concentrated in urban and industrial centres such as Accra, Kumasi and Takoradi. These locations host high residential, commercial, industrial and port-related electricity demand. The GIS dataset identifies all cities and towns in Ghana. However, Accra, Kumasi and Takoradi emerged as major demand and deficit hotspots

Table 12. Indicative GIS Energy Deficit Hotspots.

City	Latitude	Longitude	Peak Demand (MW)	Supply (MW)	Deficit (MW)
Accra	5.6037	-0.1870	1,800	1,500	300
Kumasi	6.6885	-1.6244	900	750	150
Takoradi	4.9016	-1.7831	700	600	100

Source: GRIDCo 2025, 2023.

Table 12. Indicative GIS Energy Deficit Hotspots.

City	Latitude	Longitude	Peak Demand (MW)	Supply (MW)	Deficit (MW)
Accra	5.6037	-0.1870	1,800	1,500	300
Kumasi	6.6885	-1.6244	900	750	150
Takoradi	4.9016	-1.7831	700	600	100

Source: GRIDCo 2025, 2023.

Figure 7. Conceptual GIS Hotspot Map of Electricity Reliability Deficit Nodes in Ghana.

Figure 7. Conceptual GIS Hotspot Map of Electricity Reliability Deficit Nodes in Ghana.

4.5. Integrated Discussion

The evidence confirms Ghana’s electricity challenge can no longer be adequately supported by the installed capacity shortage explanation. Instead, the energy sector (system) is constrained by reliability deficits arising from operational, financial, fuel-supply and infrastructural weaknesses. The first major finding is that installed capacity expansion has not guaranteed reliable power supply. Although Ghana has invested heavily in generation capacity, the gap between installed and available capacity remains significant. The outcome reflects plant outages, fuel limitations and maintenance constraints. The second major finding identify financial liquidity as a hurdle as it affects electricity reliability. Energy-sector debt weakens the ability of utilities and state institutions to pay IPPs, procure fuel and maintain infrastructure. Recent debt repayments to IPPs and gas suppliers demonstrate that financial reform is not separate from technical reliability; it is central to it. The third major finding is that gas supply stability is essential. Ghana’s thermal generation fleet depends heavily on natural gas. Any disruption in gas supply directly affects available capacity. Therefore, gas-to-power coordination involving GNPC, Ghana Gas, power producers and GRIDCo is essential. The fourth major finding is that transmission efficiency remains critical. Even when electricity is generated, grid losses and congestion can reduce delivered supply. Grid modernisation, substation upgrades and investment in transmission redundancy are therefore necessary. The fifth major finding is that EPC and energy efficiency offer a powerful demand-side solution. Moderate EPC implementation could eliminate the modelled 2025 deficit. This suggests that Ghana should treat energy efficiency as equivalent to a “virtual power plant” because avoided demand can perform the same reliability function as new generation capacity.

Overall, the results demonstrate that Ghana’s electricity sector has entered a reliability-deficit regime. Installed capacity remains important, but it is no longer the most decisive indicator of electricity security. The relevant measure is available, dispatchable and deliverable capacity relative to peak demand. The study therefore recommends a shift from capacity-centred planning to reliability-centred planning. This requires integrated action across generation availability, gas supply security, power-sector financial reform, transmission efficiency and demand-side management. EPC-based energy efficiency should be mainstreamed as a strategic instrument for reducing peak demand, lowering system costs and strengthening Ghana’s just energy transition pathway.

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

This study demonstrates that Ghana’s electricity sector has transitioned from a capacity deficit to a reliability deficit regime. While investments in generation infrastructure have successfully expanded installed capacity, systemic inefficiencies continue to undermine supply reliability. Policy interventions should therefore prioritize improving operational efficiency through enhanced maintenance regimes, strengthening fuel supply security, and reducing transmission losses. Financial restructuring of the power sector is also critical to addressing liquidity constraints and ensuring sustainable operations. Equally important is the integration of demand-side management strategies, particularly EPC implementation, which offers a cost-effective pathway for reducing peak demand and enhancing system resilience. Future energy planning in Ghana must adopt a holistic approach that balances supply expansion with efficiency improvements and institutional reforms.