Submitted:
27 June 2026
Posted:
29 June 2026
You are already at the latest version
Abstract

Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Design and Data Source
2.2. Eligibility Criteria
2.3. Data Extraction and Variables
2.4. Derived Ordinal Severity (Transparent Rule Set)
- Grade 0 (none/normal): normal height and signal, no degenerative descriptor.
- Grade 1 (mild): disc bulge or diffuse bulge.
- Grade 2 (moderate): protrusion, annular tear/fissure, disc dehydration/desiccation, or loss/reduction of disc height.
- Grade 3 (severe): extrusion, sequestration, severe/marked degeneration, canal stenosis, or nerve-root compression.
2.5. Statistical Analysis
2.6. Image-Based Validation Pipeline and Pending Agreement Analysis
2.7. Ethics and Data Governance
3. Results
3.1. Cohort Accounting and Completeness
3.2. Demographics
3.3. Prevalence of Text-Derived Descriptors
3.4. Descriptors Distinguishing Included from Excluded Reports
3.5. Segmental Involvement
3.6. Derived Severity Distribution
3.7. Modic-Change Documentation
3.8. Image-Based Pipeline Output and Quality Control Across the Cohort
| Severity grade | Report n | Report % | Patient % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 – none/normal | 140 | 28.0 | 26.2 |
| 1 – mild | 151 | 30.2 | 29.3 |
| 2 – moderate | 99 | 19.8 | 19.9 |
| 3 – severe | 110 | 22.0 | 24.6 |
| Scenario | Expected agreement |
|---|---|
| Image-based grade vs radiologist Pfirrmann | weighted κ ≈ 0.65–0.85 |
| Modic detection (T1/T2 available) | AUC ≈ 0.85–0.95 |
| Image-derived vs text-derived severity (noisy proxy) | weighted κ ≈ 0.35–0.60 |
| Moderate-or-worse threshold | AUC ≈ 0.70–0.85 |
4. Discussion



5. Limitations
6. Recommendations and Future Directions
- Execute the specified MATLAB pipeline and validate against that reference. Report the pre-specified quadratic-weighted Cohen κ with bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, the confusion matrix, within-one-grade accuracy, ROC/PR-AUC for moderate-or-worse and severe thresholds, and Spearman ρ for continuous features, all stratified by QC status to reflect deployable performance [11,12].
- Harmonize before pooling. Given multi-year, potentially multi-scanner acquisition, apply ComBat or a validated variant to any imaging features prior to statistical comparison, and report feature stability [21,22,23,24,25].
- Upgrade the text extractor. Replace lexical matching with a negation- and context-aware transformer/LLM extractor and quantify the change in measured prevalence and inter-method agreement against the lexical baseline [15,16,17,19].
- Report to standard and link outcomes. Complete a CLAIM checklist for imaging sub-study, register the analysis, and link image-derived phenotypes to clinical outcomes to establish clinical validity [26,27].
7. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Reports extracted (total) | 500 |
| Included (degenerative) | 385 (77.0%) |
| Excluded | 115 (23.0%) |
| Unique patients (total) | 386 |
| Unique patients (≥1 included report) | 295 |
| Reports per patient (1/2/3/4) | 313/48/9/16 |
| Report date range | 24 Dec 2018 – 25 Nov 2025 |
| Field | Missing (%) |
|---|---|
| Morphological keyword (benchmark) | 49.4 |
| Age (numeric) | 16.4 |
| Source context/level | 0 |
| Primary clinical findings | 0 |
| Modic-change status | 0 |
| Inclusion/exclusion status | 0 |
| Sex | 0 |
| Keyword | Incl. % | Excl. % | Risk diff. (pp) | OR | q (FDR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bulge | 53.8 | 14.8 | 39.0 | 6.70 | <0.001* |
| mild | 27.5 | 7.0 | 20.6 | 5.08 | <0.001* |
| dehydration | 14.8 | 1.7 | 13.1 | 9.82 | <0.001* |
| central | 13.2 | 1.7 | 11.5 | 8.63 | <0.001* |
| stenosis | 18.7 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 1.80 | 0.126 |
| protrusion | 13.2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 2.36 | 0.097 |
| moderate | 10.4 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 3.22 | 0.058 |
| spondylolisthesis | 4.7 | 0.0 | 4.7 | — | 0.054 |
| herniation | 6.2 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.48 | 0.269 |
| severe | 16.4 | 14.8 | 1.6 | 1.13 | 0.828 |
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