Submitted:
19 June 2026
Posted:
22 June 2026
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Study Area and the Baige Landslide Dam Events
2.1. The “10.10” Event

2.2. The “11.03” Event
3. Methodology
3.1. Overall Framework
3.2. 1D Hydro-Morphodynamic Model
3.2.1. Hydrodynamic Equations
3.2.2. Sediment Transport and Bed Evolution
3.3. 2D Flood and Morphodynamic Model
3.4. Two-Way Coupling Strategy
3.5. Numerical Schemes
3.6. Calibration and Validation Strategy
4. Results
4.1. 1D Breach Model Validation
4.2. Effect of Two-Way Coupling
4.3. Downstream Flood Wave Propagation
4.4. Sediment Transport and Geomorphic Change
4.5. Sensitivity Analysis
4.6. Computational Efficiency
5. Discussion
5.1. The Critical Role of Two-Way Coupling
5.2. Synergy Between 1D and 2D Components
5.3. Implications for Hazard Assessment and Risk Management
5.4. Limitations and Future Research Directions
- Lateral widening mechanism: The model represents lateral widening as a continuous hydraulic erosion. However, field observations indicate that bank collapse occurs episodically. Future research will integrate a slope stability module with a two-dimensional morphodynamic component.
- Material heterogeneity: The existing model employs vertically stratified layers, presupposing uniformity within each layer. However, natural landslide deposits exhibit considerable three-dimensional variability in their characteristics. Therefore, stochastic methods or comprehensive field characterizations are required to address these issues.
- Erodibility transferability: The calibrated Kd = 373 mm³/N·s was site-specific. For ungauged dams, empirical correlations linking Kd to field-measurable properties (grain size distribution, plasticity, and compaction) are urgently required to estimate Kd.
- Single coupling interface: The existing framework employs a single interface. However, for cascade dam systems, the integration of multiple interfaces is crucial. This requirement should be prioritized in future development efforts.
- Uncertainty quantification: Sensitivity analysis was employed to address parameter uncertainty; however, structural and scenario uncertainties persisted. The implementation of a probabilistic framework can enhance risk communication.
6. Conclusions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| Symbol | Description | Units |
| A | Cross-sectional flow area | m² |
| C | Suspended sediment concentration | kg/m³ |
| cs | Smagorinsky coefficient | - |
| CFL | Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy number | - |
| d50 | Median grain size | m |
| E | Erosion flux | kg/m²/s |
| F | Inundation fit index | % |
| Fi | Proportion of fraction i on bed surface | - |
| g | Gravitational acceleration | m/s² |
| h | Water depth | m |
| ha | Active layer thickness | m |
| Kd | Erodibility coefficient | mm³/N·s |
| n | Manning's roughness coefficient | s/m^ {1/3} |
| NSE | Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency | - |
| Q | Discharge | m³/s |
| qbi | Bedload transport rate for fraction i | m³/s/m |
| | Dimensionless transport rate | - |
| R2 | Coefficient of determination | - |
| RMSE | Root mean square error | m³/s |
| Sf | Friction slope | - |
| t | Time | s |
| u, v | Depth-averaged velocity components | m/s |
| z | Bed elevation | m |
| Δt | Time step | s |
| η | Water surface elevation | m |
| λ | Bed porosity | - |
| νt | Eddy viscosity | m²/s |
| ρ | Water density | kg/m³ |
| σg | Geometric standard deviation | - |
| τb | Bed shear stress | Pa |
| τcrit | Critical shear stress | Pa |
| τri | Reference shear stress for fraction i | Pa |
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| Parameter | Value | Source/Justification |
|---|---|---|
| 1D Model | ||
| Manning’s n (dam material) | 0.045 | Calibrated from “10.10” |
| Erodibility coefficient Kd | 373 mm³/N·s | Calibrated from “10.10” |
| Critical shear stress τcrit | 0.04 Pa | Shields criterion, adjusted for d₅₀ |
| 2D Model | ||
| Manning’s n (main channel) | 0.03–0.035 | Spatially variable |
| Manning’s n (floodplain) | 0.05–0.08 | Vegetated/agricultural |
| Manning’s n (infrastructure) | 0.02–0.025 | Smooth concrete |
| Smagorinsky coefficient cs | 0.28 | Standard |
| Sediment | ||
| Median grain size d₅₀ | 0.02-0.6 m | Field samples |
| Geometric standard deviation σg | 4.5 | Poorly sorted |
| Bed porosity λ | 0.41 | Laboratory analysis |
| Grain size fractions | Fine: 0.1–10 mm, Medium: 10–20 mm, Coarse: 20–30 mm | Sieve analysis |
| Active layer thickness ha | 1 m | Sensitivity analysis |
| Parameter | Measured | Simulated | Relative Err. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak discharge (m³/s) | 31,000 | 30,176 | −2.7% |
| Time to peak (h) | 37.25 | 37.31 | +0.2% |
| Final top width (m) | 264.1 | 262.9 | −0.5% |
| Final bottom width (m) | 107.8 | 103.1 | −4.4% |
| Location | Distance (km) | Simulated Peak (m³/s) | Observed Peak (m³/s) | Relative Error | Simulated Arrival Time | Observed Arrival Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dam site | 0 | 30,850 | 31,000 | −0.5% | 0 | 0 |
| 25 km downstream | 25 | 26,200 | 26,500 | −1.1% | 1.3 h | 1.4 h |
| Yebatang HPS | 56 | 23,150 | 22,800 | +1.5% | 2.1 h | 2.3 h |
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