3.1. Baseline model
In the baseline version of the model, we set and , . Therefore, agents learn at the fastest pace possible and never make mistakes. Considering perfectly rational learning agents is of course a huge approximation, nevertheless, we start with this toy version for two main reasons: firstly, if we are able to capture some of the experimental results with such simplified model, this would indicate that the selected features are sufficiently powerful to provide a reasonable description of reality; secondly, it can work as a baseline to compare the effect of further refinements of the model itself.
Figure 1 reports the average probability of the two agents choosing Stag (
S), which is equivalent to the probability that a single simulated experiment ends up with players always choosing
S. As is easy to see, for
we have
: an expected outcome, since if the Stag option is infinitely more profitable than Hare, there is no chance that the Hare choice can be selected.
When , the average probability that both agents choose S is . This indicates that players learn with a probability larger than that is actually the best option when the associated reward is at least four times more profitable than the Hare’s payoff.
This outcome can theoretically be justified as follows. From Eq. (
1), we can write down the average elementary variation
of the probability
after the
th interaction (of course, the same can be done for
). Assuming that
and that, by symmetry, the probability of choosing the strategy
K evolves equally for both players, after a few passages we get the following:
where
that are the average rewards gained up to the
N-th round when a player has adopted the Stag/Hare strategy, respectively. From Eq. (
2) it is easy to see that
and
are two fixed points of the dynamics, which is confirmed in simulations since for every independent run both players end up with probability to choose Stag equal to 0 or 1 for both, i.e. they always coordinate. There is also a third equilibrium,
, that is,
Now, if
is a physical equilibrium, that is, if
, then it is unstable. Indeed, let us assume that both players have reached
, if they go again to Stag, for the rule given in Eq. (
1), at the subsequent stage the probability will tend to increase again and go away from
.
Therefore, we have established that in a single run players coordinate, and the final configuration is always one where both always go to the Stag or always go to the Hare. We can evaluate the probability that a single run ends up with both players choosing Stag, i.e. we can explain the results shown in
Figure 1. To this end, let us consider the interactions in the very early stages of the game, when we can pose
for both players. Focusing on a given player, at the first interaction its probability to choose Stag will change as follows:
Of course, on average, the double Stag is always the best configuration for the interacting players, but since at the beginning they do not know the rewards, they have to discover that it is the most convenient option just by trying. Now, in order to understand that mutual Stag is the best option, both players have to go both on S to collect the payoff: on average, this happens once every four runs. More precisely, in the early stages of the game, both players select the strategy at random, so that only with a probability of they go for the Stag at the same time: therefore, only for it becomes convenient for the Stag strategy, as it rightly appears in the figure.
3.2. Learning rate and error probability
In the baseline model, agents update the probability of choosing Stag based on the payoffs obtained. The impact of the latter is maximal and, in the first interactions, it is able to significantly modify the behavior of agents. Furthermore, decisions are not subject to errors and agents possess the same characteristics. However, this scenario may not represent reality. Humans do not learn at the same speed and are prone to making mistakes. In order to better capture these characteristics, we will therefore evaluate the impact of two factors on the behavior of agents: i) the learning rate () and ii) the possibility of making mistakes (). These two characteristics will be studied separately and in combination. The analysis of the following results will focus on the case where the payoff of stag , i.e., the payoff where agents show a probability of cooperating equal to in the baseline model.
3.2.1. Learning rate effect
The pair of agents 1 and 2 are assigned and , respectively, where . The learning rate controls how quickly the agent learns from its experiences: a high value of , especially in early interactions, can cause the agent to drastically change its strategy, while low values make the decision-making process more stable and slower. In the baseline model, both agents had a value of . In this first extension, we will consider not only the impact of lower learning rates, but also the interaction between heterogeneous agents characterized by different values of .
Figure 2 displays the evolution of
as the Stag’s payoff
increases, for four different scenarios that reflect the interaction between agents with different values of the learning rate
, including the baseline case (
). The scenarios were not selected based on any specific criteria, but are intended simply to explore different combinations of
, where the agents exhibit increasing values of the learning rate (
), in addition to a mixed case (
) where agents learn at different speeds. As we have already seen in
Section 3.1, as the Stag’s payoff increases, we observe higher values of
for any combination of
and
. However, the highest values are observed as the learning rate decreases, particularly when both agents exhibit a very low learning rate
, as we can see for
. Also in the case of heterogeneous agents, such as in the scenario
and
, where only one of the agents has a low learning rate, we observe higher average values of
compared to the baseline.
To better understand the underlying dynamics, we can examine
Figure 3, which shows the probability of choosing Stag for each combination of the values
and
when
. The dark red areas indicate higher values of
, while the dark blue areas indicate a low probability of coordinating on Stag. As can be clearly seen, the probability
varies widely depending on the pair of values
and
, ranging from
in the baseline model (
) to
for
. As the values of
decrease for both agents, the probability of cooperation increases monotonically.
The highest value of is therefore reached when both agents exhibit the lowest learning rate tested (). In heterogeneous pairs of agents with different , the presence of a “slow learner” is generally beneficial for cooperation, increasing the overall probability of choosing Stag. For example, in the case where , tends to increase as the value of decreases. The results therefore seem to suggest that slower learning benefits cooperation between agents. Gradually updating one’s behavioral rule provides sufficient space to test different strategies and avoid becoming stuck in a strategic stalemate.
3.2.2. Error probability effect
In the previous section, we examined the effect of the learning rate on the probability of coordination in Stag, but without considering the possibility of making mistakes. To analyze this different scenario, let us again consider two agents, each endowed with its own probability of making mistakes, . For now, let us assume a constant and maximum learning rate .
As we can see in
Figure 4, the introduction of
can either increase or decrease the probability of coordinating on Stag
. Compared to the baseline model (
), a small probability of making mistakes can be beneficial, as can be observed when
for both agents. Conversely, high values of
tend to result in values of
that are lower than the baseline as the payoff of Stag
increases. In the case of heterogeneous agents (
), the presence of a single agent with a low probability of making errors is sufficient to offset the negative effect of a high
, resulting in an overall increase in
compared to the baseline.
If we examine the values of
for different combinations of
and
(
) when
(
Figure 5), we can see how the probability of choosing Stag initially tends to rise as
increases. The maximum point is reached when both agents have a value of
in the range 0.2-0.3. Moving towards higher values, the probability of cooperating gradually decreases. When the maximum value
is reached, the value of
is close to the case
. In this region, high behavioral instability due to frequent mistakes makes any form of learning difficult, if not impossible. Keeping the error probability
of one of the two agents in the optimal region 0.2-0.3 fixed, we can observe that for increasing values of
, the probability
is still relatively high (
), compared to the baseline model.
In this scenario, despite rapid learning, the possibility of making mistakes represents another way to experiment with different strategies, with the same positive effects seen in the case of a low learning rate. In fact, even a small chance of making mistakes is enough to allow agents to break through possible strategic deadlocks. In the case of an agent with a high probability of error, this can still be beneficial if the other party exhibits a relatively low probability of errors.
3.2.3. Combined effect of learning rate and error probability
Let’s now consider the joint impact of the learning rate
and the error probability
on the probability of cooperating
.
Figure 6 shows three different scenarios: for each combination of
and
, we assign the agents the maximum (
) and minimum (
) learning rate values, as well as a mixed case (
).
As seen in the previous section, when the learning rate of both agents is maximum, we observe the smallest probability of choosing Stag; conversely, when , the value of is the highest. On the other hand, the effect of the error is non-linear: an error probability between 0.2-0.3, even for a single agent, is usually beneficial.
Combining the two factors, we observe how their interplay contributes to widening the region of high coordination (red areas). In particular, as the learning rate decreases, the optimal interval for coordination given by tends to widen. From a narrow range of approximately with , the interval widens significantly, up to approximately when . We can observe this effect even in the case of heterogeneous agents (), where the presence of a single slow learner is capable of extending the positive effect of .
These results therefore seem to suggest a specific synergy between the learning rate and the error probability that can promote coordination. While decreasing learning rates tend to increase , the noise introduced by is beneficial only if limited. However, the detrimental effect of overly frequent errors can be counterbalanced by a gradual learning process, promoting cooperation even in situations where behavior is more erratic.
3.3. Comparison with experimental results
In this section, we will compare the results of our simulations with a recent experiment (see
Appendix A), where pairs of participants played a computerized version of the SH game. Unlike other experimental designs, players were not provided with any information about the structure and rules of the game, in order to stimulate learning and exploration. During the game, participants were able to observe their partner’s moves, but no communication was possible. In this version of the SH, each player was presented with a horizontal grid, whose two ends represented the Stag and the Hare, and could move to the right or the left to reach one of the two ends. Each move involved a cost in “energy” to be subtracted from their initial endowment, similarly to the mechanism employed in our computational model. Each session consisted of at least 100 rounds. In total, 45 dyads completed the experiment, resulting in 5186 rounds. The payoff matrix used is reported in
Table 2.
To evaluate the dynamics of cooperation, we analyzed when and how the dyads reached a stable joint strategy within each round. For the purpose of empirical comparison, cooperation is intended as convergence on a strategy. Furthermore, convergence was defined as the first moment within a round when both players simultaneously selected a defined joint state:
(BothStag),
(BothHare),
(Split). For each dyad and round, we identified the earliest move corresponding to a valid joint state and computed the convergence time as the maximum elapsed time between the two participants, to account for slower players. Players quickly learned that the
strategy was the most profitable, adopting it most frequently (2915 rounds), followed by the
strategy (1408 rounds) and the least profitable
strategy (863 rounds). The behavioral results also highlighted a rapid conversion within each round, with a mean convergence time of 334 milliseconds (
Figure 7). Most rounds reached a stable configuration within 834 milliseconds, implying early mutual adaptation.
Early convergence suggests that participants rapidly coordinated their strategies, requiring only a few movement corrections. The speed of the players’ actions would seem to suggest a tendency toward a more intuitive and less deliberate decision-making approach, as assumed in our model. Moreover, the predominance of the
state (BothStag), indicates that cooperative balance was not only achievable, but also more stable once reached (
Figure 8). Finally, similar to our computational results, in more than half of the cases players were able to coordinate by both choosing Stag.