Impact of Climate Change on Climate Potential Productivity in the Agroclimatic Zones of the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Spatial and Temporal Dynamic Analysis

This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of climate potential productivity and its correlation with changes in maize productivity in four agroclimatic zones of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) using Thornthwaite Memorial models and Mann–Kendall Trend Analysis from 1960 to 2024. Climate potential productivity showed contrasting trends between agroclimatic zones. In the Haut-Katanga and Tchuapa zones, the precipitation showed a strong positive relationship with climate potential productivity, emphasizing that water availability from rainfall is the primary driver of agricultural productivity. In Kongo Central and South Kivu zones, both precipitation and temperature indicated a positive relationship with climate potential productivity, highlighting that agricultural productivity in these zones, is highly sensitive to tropical climate variability. The climate resource utilization efficiency demonstrates markedly divergent trends across agroclimatic zones, possibly due to distinct agroclimatic conditions. Climate resource utilization efficiency indicated a fluctuating positive relationship with per-unit maize yield in the four agroclimatic zones. During the studied period, maize yield declined by 19.68%, 17.48%, 13.40%, and 15.65% in the agroclimatic zones of Haut-Katanga, Kongo Central, South Kivu, and Tchuapa, respectively. These findings can help in mitigating climate-related risks and contributing to agricultural resilience and food security.