4. Discussion
Of all the therapies used in IBD, thiopurines have the most consistent malignancy association. The link between thiopurines and lymphoma is well understood. These drugs impair EBV-specific natural killer and cytotoxic T cells, allowing unchecked proliferation of EBV-infected B lymphocytes and giving rise to post-transplant-like lymphoproliferative disorders. The CESAME cohort established the association, with a more than 5-fold increase in lymphoproliferative disorders among thiopurine users (aHR 5.28; P = 0.0007) [
7]. Lemaitre et al. similarly suggested this in the largest population-based study to date (aHR 2.60 for thiopurine monotherapy vs. unexposed), and Kotlyar et al. reported a pooled SIR of 4.92 in their meta-analysis [
8,
11]. The relative risk was highest in younger patients (SIR 6.99 for those under 30), while the absolute risk was greatest in older patients (1 per 354 patient-years for those over 50), and men were at significantly higher risk than women (SIR 4.50 vs. 2.29).
HSTCL, a rare but almost uniformly fatal lymphoma, predominantly affects young men after 2 or more years of thiopurine exposure. In a systematic review of HSTCL cases in IBD, Shah et al. found that nearly all patients had prior thiopurine exposure, with a median survival of only 5 months and an overall mortality exceeding 85%. The risk of T-cell NHL was significantly increased with the combination TNF-α inhibitor plus thiopurine therapy and with thiopurine monotherapy, but not with TNF-α inhibitor monotherapy alone [
40].
Beyond lymphoma, thiopurines are associated with roughly a 2-fold increase in NMSC, elevated urinary tract cancer risk (SIR 3.40 in the CESAME cohort), and AML/MDS [
7]. Khan et al. found that past thiopurine exposure was not associated with AML/MDS, whereas the CESAME cohort reported a higher SIR for past exposure (SIR 6.98), suggesting that the relationship between duration, recency, and myeloid malignancy risk may be more complex [
7,
14]. Regardless, thiopurines carry a cancer risk, particularly for older men and EBV-seropositive patients.
The malignancy risk attributable to anti-TNF monotherapy is more controversial, and the literature gives variable associations depending on the outcome. The Danish nationwide cohort of 56,146 IBD patients showed no significant increase (RR 1.07; 95% CI, 0.85–1.36), and the TREAT registry found virtually identical malignancy rates between infliximab-treated and non-infliximab-treated Crohn's disease patients (0.69 vs. 0.71 per 100 patient-years) [
14,
15]. For lymphoma, Lemaitre et al. showed that anti-TNF monotherapy carried a lymphoma risk comparable to thiopurine monotherapy (aHR 2.41; P 0.001 vs. unexposed) [
8]. The Chupin et al. meta-analysis similarly found this association (IRR 1.52; P = 0.023), as did Yang et al. (IRR 1.65; P = 0.006) [
16,
20].
One retrospective study of 11,228 IBD cases found that anti-TNF monotherapy was associated with higher risks of BCC (HR 1.76; P = 0.024) and melanoma (HR 4.1; P = 0.015) compared with thiopurines in Crohn's disease patients. Yet a meta-analysis by Esse et al. found no statistically significant association between biological treatment and melanoma in IBD (pooled RR 1.20; 95% CI, 0.60–2.40) [
41]. The Nyboe Andersen et al. study added an important finding [
14]. The significant association initially observed among TNF-α antagonist users was largely explained by concomitant azathioprine use, underscoring the complexity to distinguish monotherapy effects from combination therapy effects when interpreting these data.
Combination anti-TNF plus thiopurine therapy carries the highest lymphoma risk of any IBD treatment strategy, and the magnitude of the increase suggests a synergistic rather than merely additive interaction between the two drug classes. Lemaitre et al. reported an aHR of 6.11 (95% CI, 3.46–10.8) for lymphoma with combination therapy versus unexposed patients, with the risk being 2.35-fold and 2.53-fold higher than thiopurine and anti-TNF monotherapy, respectively [
8]. The Chupin et al. meta-analysis found this (pooled IRR 3.71; 95% CI, 2.30–6.00), and Yang et al. reported a similar finding (IRR 3.36; 95% CI, 2.23–5.05) [
16]. A cross-sectional analysis of 75,673 IBD patients found that combined thiopurine/anti-TNF prescription was associated with an HR of 5.08 (P = 0.001). Additional studies have reproduced this association. A study of 1,594 Crohn's disease patients treated with adalimumab showed increased risks of both NMSC (RR 3.46) and non-NMSC malignancies (RR 2.82) with combination versus monotherapy [
21]. A retrospective study of 108,579 IBD patients showed that biologicals used with thiopurines for one year or longer carried a significantly increased NMSC risk (adjusted OR 3.89; 95% CI, 2.33–6.46) [
21].
The SONIC and UC-SUCCESS trials demonstrated that combination therapy is more effective than either agent alone for inducing remission, particularly for patient subgroups at highest risk: older males, EBV-seropositive patients, and those with prior skin cancer [
24]. For these patients, optimized anti-TNF monotherapy with therapeutic drug monitoring may represent a more prudent strategy, trading a modest reduction in efficacy for a meaningful reduction in malignancy risk.
In contrast to the associations seen with thiopurines and anti-TNF agents, vedolizumab and ustekinumab have shown reassuring safety profiles. Singh et al. compared vedolizumab with TNF-α antagonists using administrative claims data (4,807 anti-TNF-treated vs. 759 vedolizumab-treated patients) and found no significant difference in malignancy incidence after adjusting for age, sex, and race (HR 1.15; 95% CI, 0.61–2.19) [
23,
24,
25]. The GEMINI long-term safety study of 2,343 patients reported malignancy rates of 9.8 per 1000 per year in UC and 8.3 per 1000 per year in Crohn's disease [
23]. Colombel et al. showed that less than 1% (18 of 2,830) of vedolizumab-treated patients developed malignancy [
24].
For ustekinumab, a pooled analysis of phase 2/3 studies involving 2,574 patients showed low and similar malignancy rates between placebo (0.34 per 100 PY; 95% CI, 0.04–1.21) and ustekinumab (0.40 per 100 PY; 95% CI, 0.16–0.83) [
25]. The AGA Clinical Practice Update explicitly states that current evidence does not show an increased risk of malignancy in patients with IBD treated with vedolizumab, ustekinumab, risankizumab, mirikizumab, ozanimod, or etrasimod, although long-term data remain limited.
Gut-selective agents also appear safe in patients who have already had cancer. Vedamurthy et al. studied 463 IBD patients with prior malignancy and found no increase in the risk of new or recurrent cancer with vedolizumab (HR 1.38; 95% CI, 0.72–2.64) or anti-TNF therapy (HR 1.03; 95% CI, 0.65–1.64) compared with no immunosuppression [
26]. Hong et al. suggested these findings in 390 patients, reporting no increased risk with vedolizumab (aHR 1.36; 95% CI, 0.27–7.01) or ustekinumab (aHR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.17–5.41) [
27]. The updated meta-analysis by Gupta et al. of 24,328 persons across immune-mediated diseases found numerically lower cancer recurrence rates with ustekinumab (21 per 1000 PY; 95% CI, 0–44) and vedolizumab (16 per 1000 PY; 95% CI, 5–26) compared with no immunosuppression (35 per 1000 PY), anti-TNF agents (32 per 1000 PY), or combination immunosuppression (56 per 1000 PY) [
29]. Holmer et al. compared TNF-α antagonists with non-TNF biologics in IBD patients with active or recent cancer and found comparable progression-free survival (HR 0.76; 95% CI, 0.25–2.30) and recurrence-free survival (HR 0.94; 95% CI, 0.24–3.77) [
28].
The JAK inhibitor malignancy, ORAL Surveillance trial, compared tofacitinib (5 and 10 mg twice daily) with TNF-α inhibitors in 4,362 RA patients aged 50 years or older with at least one cardiovascular risk factor. Over a median follow-up of 4.0 years, tofacitinib was associated with a significantly higher incidence of malignancy (excluding NMSC) compared with TNF-α inhibitors (4.2% vs. 2.9%; HR 1.48; 95% CI, 1.04–2.09), with lung cancer and lymphoma among the most frequently observed malignancies [
42]. The incidence was higher in patients aged 65 years or older and more common in North America than in other regions.
The ORAL Surveillance cohort was substantially older (mean age 61 vs. 41 years in the UC program), had multiple cardiovascular comorbidities, and received concomitant methotrexate, a combination not used in IBD. In the IBD trial, across 1,157 patients with up to 9.2 years of drug exposure (3,202 patient-years), the malignancy incidence rate (excluding NMSC) was 0.88 per 100 patient-years (95% CI, 0.59–1.26) with no dose-dependent increase, no temporal trend suggesting cumulative risk, and no clustering by malignancy type. Dedicated NMSC analyses identified prior NMSC history (HR 9.09), prior TNF-α inhibitor failure (HR 3.32), and older age (HR 2.03 per 10-year increase) as independent risk factors, all NMSC cases in the pivotal trials had prior thiopurine exposure [
29,
30].
Solitano et al. compared JAK inhibitors with TNF-α antagonists across immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and found no statistically significant difference in malignancy risk (OR 1.07; 95% CI, 0.81–1.42) [
43]. The Bezzio et al. meta-analysis found no difference in overall cancer risk between tofacitinib and placebo (RR 1.06; 95% CI, 0.86–1.31), though a slightly higher risk emerged when compared specifically with TNF inhibitors (RR 1.40; 95% CI, 1.06–2.08; P = 0.02) [
32]. The Russel et al. meta-analysis similarly found an increased malignancy risk for JAK inhibitors versus TNF inhibitors (IRR 1.50; 95% CI, 1.16–1.94), but no difference versus placebo (IRR 0.71; 95% CI, 0.44–1.15) or methotrexate (IRR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.35–1.68) [
33]. Curtis et al. reported that the overall malignancy rate excluding NMSC in tofacitinib-treated RA patients was 0.85 per 100 PY (95% CI, 0.70–1.02), with no dose-dependent increase [
42]. Rubbert-Roth et al. reported that malignancy rates (excluding NMSC) with upadacitinib in RA ranged from 0.2 to 1.1 per 100 PY [
34].
This suggests that the malignancy association from ORAL Surveillance likely reflects the unique risk profile of the older, comorbid RA population compared to a younger IBD patients. Still, caution remains warranted in patients aged 65 years or older, those with prior malignancy, and those with other risk factors, a position reflected in current FDA labeling and AGA guidance.
S1P receptor modulators are the newest therapeutic class for UC. In the phase 3 True North trial of ozanimod, cancer was diagnosed in 1 patient during induction (BCC) and 4 patients during maintenance (BCC, rectal adenocarcinoma, colon adenocarcinoma, and breast cancer), incidences described as low [
35]. The True North open-label extension through approximately 3 years of continuous treatment found that malignancy occurred infrequently with no new safety associations [
36]. The most comprehensive data come from Rubin et al., who pooled 3,652 patients with UC or relapsing MS across 16,144 patient-years of ozanimod exposure over 10 years and found a malignancy rate of 0.4 per 100 PY that remained low and stable throughout the observation period [
37].
Fingolimod, the first-generation S1P modulator used in multiple sclerosis, has been associated with BCC, SCC, melanoma, Kaposi's sarcoma, Merkel cell carcinoma, and lymphoma. Ozanimod's selectivity for S1P1/S1P5 (sparing S1P3) may confer a more favorable profile than first-generation agents [
44]. A systematic review and meta-analysis of S1P modulators across immune-mediated diseases by Lasa et al. (9,604 patients) found no statistically significant increase in malignancy with S1P modulators versus placebo or active comparator [
45]. For etrasimod, the phase 3 ELEVATE UC 52 and ELEVATE UC 12 trials reported no malignancies across either trial [
38]. The ENLIGHT UC trial in East Asian patients similarly reported no malignancies [
39]. These are reassuring numbers, but the follow-up remains short relative to the latency of most solid tumors, and continued surveillance will be essential.
The heterogeneity of malignancy risk across IBD therapies makes a uniform approach difficult. Several patient-specific factors should guide treatment selection. Age is the most consistent risk modifier: older patients (65 years or older) have the highest absolute risk of thiopurine-associated lymphoma, the greatest malignancy association with JAK inhibitors, and the highest overall cancer incidence across all drug classes. Male sex is an independent risk factor for lymphoma and HSTCL. Prior malignancy history, while not consistently associated with increased recurrence risk on immunosuppressive therapy, warrants preferential use of gut-selective agents per AGA guidance. EBV serostatus is increasingly recognized as a clinically actionable risk modifier: EBV-seronegative young patients are at risk for fatal post-mononucleosis lymphoproliferative disease on thiopurines, while EBV-seropositive patients are at risk for post-transplant-like B-cell lymphomas.
The AGA Clinical Practice Update on IBD and Malignancy provides a practical framework for therapy selection in patients who develop cancer while on IBD medications. Thiopurines should be stopped if lymphoma or recurrent NMSC develops. Anti-TNF agents should be stopped if melanoma develops. Gut-selective agents (anti-integrin, anti-IL-12/23, anti-IL-23) generally require no change regardless of malignancy type. For patients with prior malignancy requiring IBD therapy, vedolizumab and ustekinumab are preferred, given their favorable safety profiles, though anti-TNF agents and even immunomodulators have not been shown to significantly increase cancer recurrence risk in available studies.
Several limitations of the current evidence base deserve a mention. There is a near-complete absence of race and ethnicity data across included studies.. Most evidence derives from European (predominantly French and Danish) and North American cohorts with limited representation of non-White populations. The follow-up duration for JAK inhibitors in IBD, while extending to 9.2 years in the tofacitinib program, remains insufficient to detect malignancies with long latency periods. Prospective comparative data for newer agents risankizumab, guselkumab, mirikizumab, ozanimod, and etrasimod are sparse, and long-term safety data are lacking. Many included studies relied on administrative claims databases or registry data, which may underascertain malignancy events and lack granular clinical detail.