Submitted:
30 May 2026
Posted:
01 June 2026
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Experiments
2.1. Investigating the Persona Manifold Collapse
2.2. Testing Human Opinion Variance via Inter-Persona Similarity Trends
2.3. Quantifying Impact of Persona Manifold Collapse on Simulation Ability
2.4. Discovering Alignment Bridges in the Persona Manifold
3. Results and Discussion
4. Conclusion
Appendix A
Appendix A.1. Experimental Results
Appendix A.2. Persona Simulation Questions
Appendix A.3. Example Persona Prompt Construction
Appendix A.4. Persona Prompts and Ideal Customer Profiles
Appendix A.5. Limitations
Appendix A.6. Broader Impact
Appendix A.7. Experimental Compute Resources
| Model | Persona Attribute Composition | Mean | Std. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-8B-Base | Age–Gender | 4.1049 | 2.6814 |
| Age–Gender–Education | 3.8419 | 2.0556 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style | 3.2433 | 1.8979 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style–Background | 3.1651 | 1.4104 | |
| Qwen3-8B | Age–Gender | 7.8125 | 1.7960 |
| Age–Gender–Education | 4.3983 | 2.4780 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style | 3.5126 | 1.8817 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style–Background | 3.5976 | 1.5944 | |
| Qwen-72B-Base | Age–Gender | 9.1269 | 6.4293 |
| Age–Gender–Education | 7.1331 | 4.1803 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style | 6.8915 | 4.3034 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style–Background | 5.9719 | 4.1135 | |
| Qwen-72B-Vision-Instruct | Age–Gender | 14.3750 | 3.8437 |
| Age–Gender–Education | 7.5516 | 4.6803 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style | 6.3337 | 3.7011 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style–Background | 5.9044 | 2.4421 | |
| LLaMA-3.2-90B-Vision-Base | Age–Gender | 8.2301 | 5.0318 |
| Age–Gender–Education | 7.1083 | 4.1847 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style | 6.7774 | 5.2504 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style–Background | 5.8248 | 3.4800 | |
| LLaMA-3.2-90B-Vision-Instruct | Age–Gender | 14.1875 | 3.8590 |
| Age–Gender–Education | 7.8917 | 4.9873 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style | 7.1684 | 4.1993 | |
| Age–Gender–Education–Decision Style–Background | 6.4267 | 4.0643 |
| Model | Nemotron | PersonaHub | Age-Gender |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen-8B | 1.7956 | 3.8406 | 7.8125 |
| Qwen-72B | 5.2495 | 6.8355 | 14.3750 |
| Model | Persona Format | Tokens | Mean | Std. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen-72B-Vision-Instruct | Tabular (JSON) | 12 | 9.9364 | 5.6761 |
| Shortest | 15 | 14.5678 | 7.5822 | |
| Short | 150 | 14.7993 | 8.4612 | |
| Paper Version | 1080 | 13.0967 | 5.6680 | |
| Medium | 1570 | 14.1680 | 7.9029 | |
| Long | 2050 | 15.3884 | 10.5479 | |
| Qwen-8B | Tabular (JSON) | 12 | 5.8692 | 2.9637 |
| Shortest | 15 | 7.0946 | 3.8733 | |
| Short | 150 | 7.8463 | 3.8253 | |
| Paper Version | 1080 | 5.6255 | 3.4585 | |
| Medium | 1570 | 8.9235 | 3.4073 | |
| Long | 2050 | 8.2392 | 5.3727 |
| Model | Prompt Variant | Mean | Std. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen-8B | Variant 1 | 8.5006 | 3.8609 |
| Variant 2 | 8.2976 | 3.4696 | |
| Variant 3 | 8.4951 | 3.8699 | |
| Qwen-72B | Variant 1 | 16.3381 | 8.6070 |
| Variant 2 | 16.3269 | 6.3472 | |
| Variant 3 | 16.8079 | 10.9789 |
| Model | Correlation |
|---|---|
| GPT-4o | |
| Qwen-72B-VL_Instruct | |
| LLaMA-3.2-90B-Vision-Instruct | |
| Qwen-7B-VL_Instruct |
| Model | OpinionQA | Moral Machine |
|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-8B-Base | 0.2979 | 0.0887 |
| Qwen3-8B | 0.2616 | -0.0748 |
| Qwen-72B-Base | 0.1443 | -0.0661 |
| Qwen-72B-Vision-Instruct | -0.1172 | -0.2926 |
| LLaMA-3.2-90B-Vision-Base | -0.2646 | -0.2866 |
| LLaMA-3.2-90B-Vision-Instruct | -0.2646 | -0.2987 |
| Agent Setup | Persona Attributes | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline GPT | – | 50.00 |
| 5-shot Prompting | GPT-4o Examples | 52.57 |
| Customer Agents | Auto ICP | 58.57 |
| Social Agents | Age & Gender | 70.00 |
| Agent Setup | Persona Attributes | Fashion | Airlines | Tech |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline GPT | – | 48.88 | 51.20 | 49.56 |
| Social Agents | Age & Gender | 61.24 | 62.20 | 61.95 |
| Customer Agents | Auto ICP | 50.55 | 53.98 | 53.46 |
| Customer Agents | Brand ICP | 51.49 | 47.28 | 53.46 |
| Persona | Original | Elaborate | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| top_1 | 0.82 | 0.78 | -4.88% |
| top_2 | 0.81 | 0.79 | -2.47% |
| top_3 | 0.80 | 0.79 | -1.25% |
| mid_1 | 0.77 | 0.75 | -2.60% |
| mid_2 | 0.77 | 0.75 | -1.30% |
| mid_3 | 0.70 | 0.72 | +2.86% |
| mid_4 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.00% |
| bottom_1 | 0.46 | 0.50 | +6.52% |
| bottom_2 | 0.46 | 0.49 | +6.52% |
| bottom_3 | 0.43 | 0.43 | +2.33% |
| Persona Type | Tokens | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| persona_tabular | 12 | 58.8 |
| persona_shortest | 15 | 63.7 |
| persona_short | 150 | 60.0 |
| persona_paper_version | 1080 | 53.8 |
| persona_medium | 1570 | 63.7 |
| persona_long | 2050 | 58.8 |
| Model | Anchor | Alignment Bridge (Stable) | Collapse Trigger (Unstable) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen-8B | Gender | Gender + Religious | Political + Income |
| Qwen-72B-VL | Gender | Gender + Political | Political + Religious |
| Qwen3-8B | Education | Education + Gender | Political + Income |
| Qwen-72B-VL | Education | Education + Race | Political + Race + Income |
| Model | Stable Personas | Unstable Personas |
|---|---|---|
| Qwen-72B-VL | 15.78 | 5.88 |
| Qwen-8B | 7.41 | 2.38 |
| Attribute | # Values | Representative Values |
|---|---|---|
| Gender | 2 | {Male, Female} |
| Age Group | 8 | {18–24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55+, 18–29, 30–49, 65+} |
| Education | 12+ | {Pre-high school, High school, College, University degree, Graduate school, Professional school, PhD, Postdoctoral, underHigh, vocational, bachelor, graduate} |
| Income | 11+ | {<100k, 5k, 10k, 15k, 25k, 35k, 50k, 80k, above100k} |
| Race / Ethnicity | Multiple | {White, Black, Asian, Hispanic, Other} |
| Political Orientation | 3 | {Left, Center, Right} |
| Religious Identity | 3 | {Secular, Moderate, Religious} |
| Urban–Rural Residence | 3 | {Urban, Suburban, Rural} |
| Web Usage (hours/day) | 14 | {0, <1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 10+, 11} |
| Profession | 26 | {Student, Education, Research, Engineer, Computers/Technology, Executive Management, Administrative, Sales/Marketing, Retail, Medical, Legal, Banking/Financial, Architect, Artist/Creative/Performer, Craftsman/Construction, Food Services, Travel/Hospitality, Real Estate, Military/Government/Politics, Professional Trade, Self-Employed, Homemaker, Retired, Unemployed, Other} |
| Country | 38 | {AUS, BRA, CHN, GBR, ITA, USA, etc.} |
| Questions |
|---|
| 1. Think about the last advertisement you can clearly remember. Describe it in detail: visuals, message, and how it made you feel. |
| 2. When was the last time you clicked on an online ad? What was the ad for and why did you click? |
| 3. Describe the most memorable TV or streaming ad you have seen recently. What made it memorable? |
| 4. Which brands’ ads do you actively follow on social media? Why those brands? |
| 5. Describe a website whose design instantly made you trust it. Which elements created that trust? |
| 6. Describe a website whose design made you distrust it. Which elements pushed you away? |
| 7. Tell me about the last product recommendation widget you noticed while shopping. How did you react? |
| 8. When you remember an ad, do you recall the brand, the creative, or the tagline first? Give an example. |
| 9. Describe a time you shared an ad with friends. Why did you share it? |
| 10. Do you prefer ads that are funny, informative, or practical? Give a recent example for each. |
| 11. How do you judge whether an online ad feels credible or spammy? |
| 12. What makes an in-app ad feel safe to interact with versus risky to interact with? |
| 13. Describe a landing page you visited after clicking an ad that disappointed you. What went wrong? |
| 14. When you evaluate a product page, which matters most: images, reviews, specs, or price? Give an example. |
| 15. Describe the last native article or sponsored post you read. How did you realize it was sponsored? |
| 16. How do personalized ads based on your browsing history make you feel? Describe a recent reaction. |
| 17. If a brand you liked ran an ad you disliked, how would that change your view of the brand? |
| 18. How often do you notice or remember a jingle or music from an ad? Describe one you still recall. |
| 19. Describe an ad that made you research a brand further. What triggered you to look it up? |
| 20. When comparing two similar products online, how much does ad exposure affect your choice? Give an example. |
| 21. Which call to action in ads do you respond to most: buy now, learn more, sign up, or other? Why? |
| 22. Describe how you decide whether to install an app after seeing an app install ad. |
| 23. How do influencer endorsements affect your trust in a product? Describe a case where it changed your mind. |
| 24. Describe an ad that felt manipulative. What language or visuals made it feel that way? |
| 25. What ad formats annoy you most and cause you to close the tab or app? Why? |
| 26. Describe a brand whose advertising you actively avoid and why. |
| 27. How do social values like sustainability or diversity affect whether you remember or like an ad? |
| 28. Describe a time an in-store ad or shelf display influenced your purchase. What detail stuck with you? |
| 29. How reliably can you recall where you first saw an ad: TV, social, billboard, or elsewhere? |
| 30. When you see retargeted ads after visiting a site, how does that make you feel and act? |
| 31. Describe the last promotional code you used that came from an ad. How did you find and use it? |
| 32. What UX elements on checkout pages cause you to abandon a cart? Give a recent example. |
| 33. Describe a mobile ad that led you to install an app. What cues convinced you? |
| 34. How much does representation of social groups in an ad influence your perception of the brand? |
| 35. Describe an ad that changed your behavior, such as buying or signing up. What convinced you? |
| Questions |
|---|
| 36. How do you judge the trustworthiness of customer reviews shown on product pages? |
| 37. When an ad claims a limited-time offer, how likely are you to act quickly? Why or why not? |
| 38. Describe a time you felt an ad respected your privacy. What signaled that? |
| 39. What makes an ad feel authentic versus staged or scripted? |
| 40. How often do you notice ad frequency and what frequency becomes irritating? |
| 41. Describe an ad creative that used humor well. Why did it work? |
| 42. How do you react to cause-based ads that take a political or social stance? |
| 43. What elements on a landing page signal credibility within the first five seconds? |
| 44. Describe the last video ad you watched to completion and why you stayed. |
| 45. How do you decide whether to trust a sponsored review or influencer post? |
| 46. What microcopy or small UI details on a product page most influence your trust? |
| 47. Describe a brand touchpoint that increased your loyalty after seeing an ad or campaign. |
| 48. How would you describe yourself in three sentences? |
| 49. What are the top three values that guide your decisions? |
| 50. Describe a recent choice you made that surprised people who know you. Why did you choose it? |
| 51. Who do you go to for advice when you are unsure and why them? |
| 52. When you imagine your life in five years, what do you see? |
| 53. What daily routine or ritual gives your day structure? |
| 54. How do you prefer to resolve disagreements with people close to you? |
| 55. What hobby or activity makes you lose track of time? |
| 56. Describe a habit you recently tried to change. What helped or hindered you? |
| 57. How do you typically respond to unexpected bad news? |
| 58. When is it okay to bend a rule, in your view? |
| 59. What does a meaningful friendship look like to you? |
| 60. What personal accomplishment are you most proud of and why? |
| 61. How do you balance short-term wants with long-term goals? |
| 62. Describe a time you changed your mind about something important. What prompted the change? |
| 63. How much does other people’s opinion affect your choices? |
| 64. What does work-life balance mean to you in practice? |
| 65. How do you decide which causes or charities to support? |
| 66. When making a financial choice, what is your first step? |
| 67. How do you keep up with topics you care about intellectually or professionally? |
| 68. What stereotype about your group do you find inaccurate or annoying? |
| 69. How do you handle feeling overwhelmed or burned out? |
| 70. What privacy boundaries online are nonnegotiable for you? |
| 71. How do you form first impressions of new people? |
| 72. What is one new skill you want to learn this year and why? |
| Attribute Combination | Selected Values | Example Persona Prompt |
|---|---|---|
| Gender | Female | I am a woman. My experiences, perspectives, and daily life are shaped by growing up and living as a female in contemporary society. I have been influenced by social expectations, cultural norms, and personal experiences associated with being female, which affect how I interpret situations, form opinions, and make decisions. |
| Gender + Age Group | Male, 35–44 | I am a man. My experiences, perspectives, and daily life are shaped by growing up and living as a male in contemporary society. I have been influenced by social expectations, cultural norms, and personal experiences associated with being male, which affect how I interpret situations, form opinions, and make decisions. I am in a mature stage of adulthood, balancing professional growth, family responsibilities, and long-term stability. I tend to value efficiency, planning, and thoughtful decision-making, shaped by accumulated experience and a strong sense of responsibility. |
| Gender + Age Group + Education | Female, 18–24, Bachelor’s | I am a woman. My experiences, perspectives, and daily life are shaped by growing up and living as a female in contemporary society. I have been influenced by social expectations, cultural norms, and personal experiences associated with being female, which affect how I interpret situations, form opinions, and make decisions. I am in the early stage of adulthood, exploring independence, identity, and personal growth. My thinking is influenced by education, friendships, social media, and exposure to diverse ideas. I tend to be open-minded, curious, emotionally expressive, and willing to experiment, while still developing long-term perspectives. I hold a bachelor’s degree, which has given me structured knowledge, analytical skills, and exposure to diverse ideas. I balance theoretical understanding with practical thinking and tend to approach problems using both logic and experience. |
| Gender + Age Group + Education + Decision Style | Male, 45–54, Master’s, Analytical | I am a man. My experiences, perspectives, and daily life are shaped by growing up and living as a male in contemporary society. I have been influenced by social expectations, cultural norms, and personal experiences associated with being male, which affect how I interpret situations, form opinions, and make decisions. I am in a later stage of professional and personal maturity. My priorities often include career stability, financial security, family well-being, and long-term planning. I rely heavily on experience, practical judgment, and a measured approach to decision-making. I hold a master’s degree, which has provided me with advanced training, deeper analytical ability, and specialized knowledge. I tend to think critically, evaluate evidence carefully, and value structured reasoning and intellectual rigor. I rely heavily on logic, structured reasoning, and evidence when making decisions. I carefully weigh alternatives, analyze outcomes, and prefer data-driven conclusions over emotional impulses. |
| Gender + Age Group + Education + Decision Style + Background | Female, 25–34, PhD, Risk-seeking, Urban professional | I am a woman. My experiences, perspectives, and daily life are shaped by growing up and living as a female in contemporary society. I have been influenced by social expectations, cultural norms, and personal experiences associated with being female, which affect how I interpret situations, form opinions, and make decisions. I am in a phase of building my career and personal life. I balance ambition, independence, and social relationships, while making important decisions about work, partnerships, and long-term goals. My outlook reflects both youthful optimism and increasing realism shaped by experience. I hold a PhD, which reflects years of deep academic training, research experience, and intellectual exploration. I strongly value evidence-based reasoning, critical analysis, abstraction, and long-term thinking, and I tend to approach problems systematically and rigorously. I am comfortable with uncertainty and actively seek new challenges. I enjoy experimentation, novelty, and opportunities with high potential upside, even if they involve significant risk. I grew up and live in an urban environment shaped by professional culture, fast-paced lifestyles, and diverse social interactions. I value efficiency, innovation, exposure to new ideas, and career-driven ambition. |
| Brand | ICP | Prompt |
|---|---|---|
| ASUS | PC gamers and esports enthusiasts | I’m Helena Virtanen, a 24-year-old semi-professional esports player in Helsinki working part-time in IT support. I prioritize sustained performance, cooling efficiency, and reliability under heavy load. I research benchmarks extensively, rely on peer recommendations, and invest in hardware that minimizes downtime during tournaments and streaming sessions. |
| ASUS | Mobile professionals and consultants | My name is Noah Kim, a 31-year-old management consultant in Singapore. My laptop is my primary workspace, and I prioritize portability, keyboard comfort, display quality, and battery life. I favor well-reviewed, durable designs with strong international warranty coverage and predictable long-term performance. |
| Ericsson | Telecom operators deploying 5G networks | I’m David Rossi, a 47-year-old Director of Radio Network Planning for a national European carrier. I evaluate infrastructure based on spectrum efficiency, operational complexity, upgrade paths, and long-term resilience. I favor solutions that reduce total cost of ownership and simplify large-scale operations. |
| HP | Enterprise IT buyers | I’m Jonas Morales, a 43-year-old IT manager in Berlin managing standardized fleets of Windows PCs. I prioritize reliability, predictable procurement, easy device imaging, and low support overhead, selecting product lines that minimize operational surprises and lifecycle risk. |
| Oracle | Enterprise database decision-makers | I’m Noah Lee, a 52-year-old Head of Database Platforms at a global bank. I prioritize stability, auditability, tooling maturity, and predictable performance under high concurrency. I am strongly loss-averse and demand realistic proof-of-concept testing before adoption. |
| SAP | Large-scale ERP transformation leaders | I’m Amara Kim, a 50-year-old ERP transformation director at a multinational enterprise. I focus on standardized end-to-end processes, phased deployment, and long-term maintainability, prioritizing solutions with proven migration tooling and strong enterprise references. |
| Bulgari | Ultra-high-net-worth luxury jewelry buyers | My name is Leila Klein, a 55-year-old gallery owner in Seoul. I acquire high jewelry as heirloom-quality art objects, valuing craftsmanship, rarity, discretion, and long-term value. I rely on private salon experiences, expert advisors, and trusted brand relationships. |
| Bulgari | Affluent professionals buying everyday fine jewelry | I’m Valentina Greco, a 37-year-old corporate lawyer in Milan. I favor understated, durable jewelry that integrates into daily professional life. I prioritize craftsmanship, wearability, and timeless design over trends. |
| IndiGo | Price-sensitive domestic travelers in India | My name is Priya Sharma, a 27-year-old software engineer in Bengaluru. I prioritize low fares, reliable schedules, simple rebooking, and dense domestic connectivity, favoring airlines that minimize friction and uncertainty in family travel. |
| IndiGo | Frequent domestic business travelers | I’m Rakesh Nair, a 39-year-old regional sales manager in Hyderabad. I prioritize flexible fares, frictionless itinerary changes, and consistent punctuality, choosing airlines that reduce disruption in unpredictable travel schedules. |
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