Epidemiological and Epizootological Monitoring and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Plague in Natural Foci of Kazakhstan

Plague remains a significant natural focal zoonotic infection, maintaining epidemiological relevance in the Republic of Kazakhstan. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of epizootological dynamics in natural plague foci during 2020–2025, integrating historical epidemiological data, phenotypic and molecular characterization of Yersinia pestis, and GIS-based spatial analysis. The study utilized long-term surveillance data (1920–2025), epidemiological records of human cases (1926–2003), analysis of 1,526 strains, and whole-genome sequencing of 75 isolates. Epizootological monitoring demonstrated high coverage and stable surveillance capacity, alongside a marked increase in molecular diagnostics. By 2025, expansion of epizootically active areas, a threefold increase in isolated strains, and a substantial rise in PCR-positive detections were observed, indicating intensified pathogen circulation. Despite this, Y. pestis populations remained highly stable, with 94.9% phenotypically typical and 97.5% genotypically typical strains, and no evidence of antimicrobial resistance. Spatial analysis revealed significant clustering (Moran’s I = 1.627; p < 0.001), persistent directional spread, and stable high-risk zones in the North Aral, Betpakdala, Moyynkum, and Kyzylkum foci. No human cases have been recorded since 2003, reflecting effective surveillance. These findings support the integration of spatial modeling and molecular surveillance into risk-oriented plague control strategies.