Post-COVID Urban Spatial Reconfiguration and Remote Work Geography (2019–2025)

This paper examines whether the rise of remote work following the COVID-19 pandemic has generated a structural transformation in urban spatial organization across major metropolitan areas in advanced economies. While much of the existing literature treats COVID-19 as a temporary shock, this study argues that it has induced a persistent reconfiguration of cities toward more polycentric and decentralized spatial structures.Using a multi-source dataset combining Google mobility reports, NASA/VIIRS night-time light satellite data, OECD and national labor force surveys, and urban economic indicators, the study constructs a novel Urban Polycentricity Index (UPI) to measure spatial dispersion of economic activity. The empirical analysis covers New York, London, Paris, Berlin, and Munich over the period 2019–2025.The methodology integrates structural break tests, difference-in-differences estimation, and spatial equilibrium modeling to identify both the timing and magnitude of post-COVID spatial shifts. Results indicate a significant structural break around 2020–2021, followed by a sustained increase in remote work adoption and urban polycentricity. Satellite and mobility data confirm a systematic redistribution of economic activity from central business districts toward suburban and peripheral zones.Findings show that remote work is a statistically significant driver of urban decentralization, associated with flatter density gradients, reduced commuting intensity, and higher polycentricity. Counterfactual simulations further confirm that, without remote work expansion, cities would have remained substantially more monocentric. Overall, the study demonstrates that COVID-19 has permanently altered urban spatial equilibrium, positioning remote work as a key structural force reshaping metropolitan form.