Submitted:
27 March 2026
Posted:
28 March 2026
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Related Work
2.1. Numerical Physical Models
2.2. Statistical Models
2.3. Data-Driven Models
3. Methodology
3.1. Problem Statement
3.2. STL Time-Series Decomposition
3.3. ConvBiLSTM
3.3.1. Module Theory
3.3.2. Model Structure
3.4. PSDTIM Module
| Algorithm 1 PSDTIM (Inputs:Images,tTarget,SpatialRadius, TemporalRadius). |
| Result=InitializeGrid(Images.size(), Images[0].rows, Images[0].cols); tBefore = {t | t < tTarget, t ∈ Images.timePoints, tTarget - t ≤ TemporalRadius}; tAfter = {t | t > tTarget, t ∈ Images.timePoints, t - tTarget ≤ TemporalRadius}; // Displacement field calculation FOR i = 1 to tBefore.size() DO FOR j = 1 to tAfter.size() DO DisplacementField[i][j]=CrossCorrelation(Images[tBefore[i]], Images[tAfter[j]]); END FOR END FOR FOR each GridPoint(x, y) in Result DO Samples = {}; // Sample point tracking FOR each time t in tBefore DO TrackPoint = (x, y); FOR timestep = tTarget-1 TO t STEP -1 DO Displacement = DisplacementField[timestep][timestep+1]; TrackPoint=TrackPoint - displacement[TrackPoint.x][TrackPoint.y]; END FOR // sample value calculation Neighbors=GetNeighbors(TrackPoint,Images[t], SpatialRadius); SampleValue =SpatialIDW(Neighbors, TrackPoint); Samples.Add(t, SampleValue); END FOR FOR each time t in tAfter DO TrackPoint = (x, y); FOR timestep = tTarget+1 TO t STEP 1 DO displacement=DisplacementField[timestep-1][timestep]; TrackPoint=TrackPoint+displacement[TrackPoint.x][TrackPoint.y]; END FOR // sample value calculation Neighbors = GetNeighbors(TrackPoint, Images[t], SpatialRadius); SampleValue = SpatialIDW(Neighbors,TrackPoint); Samples.Add(t, SampleValue); END FOR // Sample weighting FinalValue = TemporalIDW(Samples, tTarget); Result[x][y] = FinalValue; END FOR Return Result; End Algorithm |
3.5. Additive Spatiotemporal Coupling
4. Experiments
4.1. Dataset and Experimental Region Overview
4.2. Data Processing
4.3. Experimental Parameter Settings
4.4. Evaluation Metrics
4. Performance Analysis
5. Discussion
5.1. Ablation Experiment on Integrated Coupling
5.2. Ablation Experiment on Evolutionary Process Component Reconstruction
6. Conclusions
- (1)
- This paper proposes a spatiotemporal interpolation method that incorporates evolutionary process features. The core of the method is to use time-series decomposition to integrate and couple different interpolation models, constructing the trend and seasonal component reconstruction model (ConvBiLSTM) and the evolutionary process component reconstruction model (PSDTIM). These are then combined additively to reconstruct the spatiotemporal data. The method takes into account different modes in the spatiotemporal dimension, avoiding the limitations of using a single spatiotemporal interpolation model, thus improving interpolation accuracy.
- (2)
- A process-based spatiotemporal dynamic tracking interpolation method (PSDTIM) is designed. PSDTIM uses the spatiotemporal cross-correlation of residual fluctuations from the ocean spatiotemporal process decomposition to track sample points and perform weighted interpolation. This captures the dynamic, continuous, gradual changes and fluctuations of ocean phenomena, addressing the interpolation problem of the evolutionary process component in ocean phenomena. In the ablation experiment for evolutionary process component reconstruction, the PSDTIM combination outperforms the second-best combination, with average reductions of 23.96% in RMSE, 24.56% in MAE, and 24.42% in MAPE. This proves the effectiveness and feasibility of the algorithm.
- (3)
- In this study, four evaluation metrics were selected to evaluate and analyze the performance of five traditional geostatistical interpolation methods and four deep learning model methods at both the daily and weekly scales. The experimental results show that EPMSIM outperforms other interpolation methods in terms of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and SSIM. Compared to the second-best model, RMSE, MSE, and MAPE were reduced by an average of 20.26%, 20.23%, and 19.68% in the daily-scale eddy experiment, 6.09%, 4.06%, and 5.11% in the daily-scale non-eddy experiment, 19.18%, 18.14%, and 18.90% in the weekly-scale eddy experiment, and 8.03%, 8.57%, and 7.98% in the weekly-scale non-eddy experiment. These results validate the effectiveness and feasibility of EPMSIM.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| BiLSTM | Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory |
| CNN | Convolutional Neural Network |
| Conv3D | 3D Convolutional Neural Network |
| ConvBiLSTM | Convolutional Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory |
| ConvLSTM | Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory |
| EPMSIM | Evolutionary Process-embedded Marine Spatiotemporal Interpolation Model |
| GHRSST | Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature |
| IDW | Inverse Distance Weighting |
| MAE | Mean Absolute Error |
| MAPE | Mean Absolute Percentage Error |
| MCC | Maximum Cross-Correlation |
| OI-SST | Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature |
| PSDTIM | Process-based Spatiotemporal Dynamic Tracking Interpolation Method |
| RMSE | Root Mean Square Error |
| ROMS | Regional Ocean Modeling Systems |
| SSIM | Structural Similarity Index Measure |
| SST | Sea Surface Temperature |
| STIDW | Spatiotemporal Inverse Distance Weighting |
| STKriging | Spatiotemporal Kriging |
| STL | Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess |
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| Function | Pathway | Layer composition |
| Feature extraction Layer | Block 1 | 3×3 Convolution ReLU Batch normalization |
| Block 2 | 3×3 Convolution ReLU Batch normalization |
|
| ConvBiLSTM Layer | Block 3 | ConvBiLSTM Dropout |
| Block 4 | ConvBiLSTM Dropout |
|
| Output Layer | Block 5 | 3×3 Convolution ReLU Batch normalization 1×1 Convolution |
| Data | Maximum | Minimum | Range | Mean | Standard Deviation |
| Daily- scale | 28.50 | 15.45 | 13.04 | 22.06 | 3.07 |
| Weekly- scale | 28.35 | 15.75 | 12.60 | 22.07 | 3.06 |
| Methods | the 20th day | the 30th day | the 40th day | ||||||
| RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
|
| Linear | 0.313 | 0.244 | 1.25 | 0.261 | 0.199 | 1.03 | 0.201 | 0.155 | 0.82 |
| Spline | 0.358 | 0.291 | 1.50 | 0.248 | 0.191 | 1.00 | 0.208 | 0.162 | 0.86 |
| SES | 0.287 | 0.229 | 1.20 | 0.402 | 0.313 | 1.64 | 0.190 | 0.152 | 0.81 |
| STIDW | 0.368 | 0.295 | 1.55 | 0.447 | 0.337 | 1.76 | 0.223 | 0.180 | 0.96 |
| STKriging | 0.312 | 0.250 | 1.30 | 0.345 | 0.264 | 1.37 | 0.205 | 0.166 | 0.88 |
| BiLSTM | 0.286 | 0.213 | 1.13 | 0.324 | 0.250 | 1.33 | 0.182 | 0.142 | 0.76 |
| Conv3D | 0.441 | 0.341 | 1.80 | 0.581 | 0.483 | 2.54 | 0.358 | 0.295 | 1.59 |
| CNN-LSTM | 0.487 | 0.379 | 1.96 | 0.516 | 0.417 | 2.16 | 0.346 | 0.287 | 1.53 |
| ConvLSTM | 0.266 | 0.211 | 1.10 | 0.366 | 0.283 | 1.48 | 0.185 | 0.149 | 0.79 |
| EPMSIM | 0.222 | 0.170 | 0.88 | 0.230 | 0.177 | 0.92 | 0.166 | 0.130 | 0.69 |
| Methods | the 65th day | the 75th day | the 85th day | ||||||
| RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
|
| Linear | 0.241 | 0.182 | 1.02 | 0.269 | 0.199 | 1.10 | 0.277 | 0.224 | 1.18 |
| Spline | 0.229 | 0.174 | 0.97 | 0.299 | 0.227 | 1.27 | 0.211 | 0.166 | 0.89 |
| SES | 0.318 | 0.237 | 1.31 | 0.365 | 0.292 | 1.64 | 0.462 | 0.390 | 2.07 |
| STIDW | 0.349 | 0.261 | 1.45 | 0.388 | 0.324 | 1.81 | 0.644 | 0.553 | 2.91 |
| STKriging | 0.310 | 0.240 | 1.34 | 0.308 | 0.247 | 1.37 | 0.427 | 0.356 | 1.87 |
| BiLSTM | 0.299 | 0.220 | 1.23 | 0.321 | 0.243 | 1.36 | 0.339 | 0.245 | 1.35 |
| Conv3D | 0.435 | 0.354 | 1.98 | 0.329 | 0.264 | 1.48 | 0.385 | 0.311 | 1.64 |
| CNN-LSTM | 0.418 | 0.332 | 1.85 | 0.348 | 0.278 | 1.54 | 0.328 | 0.269 | 1.44 |
| ConvLSTM | 0.311 | 0.239 | 1.32 | 0.338 | 0.272 | 1.52 | 0.323 | 0.252 | 1.34 |
| EPMSIM | 0.209 | 0.160 | 0.89 | 0.236 | 0.184 | 1.02 | 0.249 | 0.200 | 1.06 |
| Methods | the 6th week | the 7th week | the 8th week | ||||||
| RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
|
| Linear | 0.291 | 0.229 | 1.21 | 0.230 | 0.182 | 0.97 | 0.376 | 0.300 | 1.63 |
| Spline | 0.359 | 0.284 | 1.50 | 0.315 | 0.243 | 1.30 | 0.376 | 0.295 | 1.60 |
| SES | 0.795 | 0.657 | 3.23 | 1.143 | 0.975 | 4.78 | 0.599 | 0.488 | 2.69 |
| STIDW | 0.571 | 0.459 | 2.44 | 0.702 | 0.623 | 3.37 | 0.683 | 0.556 | 3.05 |
| STKriging | 0.359 | 0.279 | 1.49 | 0.341 | 0.280 | 1.52 | 0.440 | 0.343 | 1.88 |
| BiLSTM | 0.499 | 0.428 | 2.20 | 0.438 | 0.360 | 1.88 | 0.371 | 0.297 | 1.60 |
| Conv3D | 0.470 | 0.372 | 1.99 | 0.411 | 0.311 | 1.69 | 0.438 | 0.350 | 1.91 |
| CNN-LSTM | 0.385 | 0.316 | 1.67 | 0.319 | 0.265 | 1.43 | 0.347 | 0.280 | 1.52 |
| ConvLSTM | 0.570 | 0.473 | 2.53 | 0.370 | 0.288 | 1.54 | 0.433 | 0.344 | 1.88 |
| EPMSIM | 0.250 | 0.193 | 1.01 | 0.191 | 0.160 | 0.86 | 0.284 | 0.229 | 1.22 |
| Methods | the 12th week | the 13th week | the 14th week | ||||||
| RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
|
| Linear | 0.561 | 0.494 | 2.82 | 0.366 | 0.313 | 1.70 | 0.356 | 0.270 | 1.46 |
| Spline | 0.632 | 0.556 | 3.17 | 0.611 | 0.547 | 2.98 | 0.624 | 0.546 | 2.97 |
| SES | 0.556 | 0.451 | 2.60 | 0.552 | 0.457 | 2.46 | 0.714 | 0.636 | 3.43 |
| STIDW | 0.554 | 0.450 | 2.59 | 0.600 | 0.509 | 2.74 | 0.417 | 0.345 | 1.86 |
| STKriging | 0.513 | 0.429 | 2.47 | 0.386 | 0.324 | 1.74 | 0.278 | 0.232 | 1.25 |
| BiLSTM | 0.480 | 0.398 | 2.20 | 0.772 | 0.690 | 3.95 | 0.300 | 0.246 | 1.34 |
| Methods | the 12th week | the 13th week | the 14th week | ||||||
| RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
RMSE/ ℃ |
MAE/ ℃ |
MAPE/ % |
|
| Conv3D | 0.386 | 0.325 | 1.85 | 0.339 | 0.267 | 1.43 | 0.397 | 0.324 | 1.73 |
| CNN-LSTM | 0.295 | 0.241 | 1.34 | 0.344 | 0.282 | 1.53 | 0.258 | 0.212 | 1.14 |
| ConvLSTM | 0.420 | 0.336 | 1.92 | 0.578 | 0.497 | 2.68 | 0.285 | 0.228 | 1.24 |
| EPMSIM | 0.240 | 0.200 | 1.13 | 0.327 | 0.277 | 1.50 | 0.258 | 0.195 | 1.06 |
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