Submitted:
24 March 2026
Posted:
26 March 2026
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
- A formalization of reasoning as a trajectory of externally observable belief states.
- A divergence-based metric for quantifying inconsistency across reasoning paths.
- A complexity regularization scheme to control verbosity and prevent metric inflation.
- A structured multi-stage evaluation protocol for assessing reasoning stability under constraint and perturbation.
- A theoretical analysis establishing boundedness, invariance, and consistency of the proposed metrics.
2. Related Work and Background
3. Belief Trajectories and Externalized States
- denotes the set of active hypotheses or candidate answers,
- represents a distribution over hypotheses, encoding uncertainty,
- denotes the set of constraints, assumptions, or intermediate conclusions.
3.1. Trajectory Representation
3.2. Observability and Constraints
- Structured Output Constraint: Each must conform to a predefined schema, ensuring comparability across steps and runs.
- Sequential Consistency: The transition from to must reflect a valid reasoning update, conditioned on prior states and any additional information.
- Finite Horizon: All trajectories terminate after a finite number of steps N, corresponding to completion of the reasoning task.
3.3. Relation to Prior Work
4. Divergence Functional and Complexity-Regularized Scoring
4.1. Trajectory Divergence
- semantic distance (e.g., cosine distance between embeddings),
- structural distance (e.g., set-based distance over hypotheses ),
- probabilistic divergence (e.g., KL divergence between ).
4.2. Boundedness and Stability
4.3. Complexity Regularization
- N is the trajectory length,
- measures redundancy or branching,
- is the entropy of the uncertainty distribution at step t,
- are weighting coefficients.
4.4. Reference Trajectory and Integrity Score
4.5. Interpretation
- consistency, captured by trajectory divergence,
- stability, enforced through bounded divergence,
- parsimony, induced by complexity regularization.
5. Multi-Stage Reasoning Evaluation Protocol (REP)
5.1. Overview
- 1.
- Baseline Reasoning
- 2.
- Constrained Continuation
- 3.
- Adversarial Perturbation
- 4.
- Minimal Repair and Measurement
5.2. Stage 1: Baseline Reasoning
5.3. Stage 2: Constrained Continuation
5.4. Stage 3: Adversarial Perturbation
5.5. Stage 4: Minimal Repair and Measurement
-
Total Divergence:capturing the destabilization induced by the perturbation.
-
Repair Cost:quantifying the residual deviation after attempted correction.
-
Reasoning Integrity Score:which incorporate both divergence and complexity penalties.
5.6. Implementation Considerations
- All stages enforce a fixed schema for ,
- Prompts explicitly control which components of the belief state are fixed or modified,
- Alignment procedures from Section 4 are used when trajectory lengths differ.
5.7. Interpretation
- Resistance: the extent to which reasoning resists divergence under perturbation,
- Recoverability: the ability to restore consistency with minimal structural change.
6. Theoretical Properties of the Framework
6.1. Boundedness of Divergence
6.2. Perturbation Lower Bound
6.3. Monotonicity Under Trajectory Extension
6.4. Complexity Scaling
6.5. Score Bounds
6.6. Semantic Invariance (Conditional)
6.7. Remarks on Recoverability
6.8. Discussion
- Boundedness: ensuring stable comparisons,
- Sensitivity: capturing local perturbations,
- Monotonicity: penalizing extended divergence,
- Controlled complexity: discouraging verbose reasoning,
- Conditional invariance: dependent on representation choice.
7. Illustrative Case Analysis
7.1. Baseline Stability Across Stochastic Runs
7.2. Divergence Under Local Perturbation
7.3. Correct Output with Inconsistent Reasoning
7.4. Belief Drift in Sequential Updates
7.5. Repair Dynamics
7.6. Interpretation
8. Empirical Demonstration
8.1. Experimental Setup
8.2. Illustrative Results
8.3. Observations
9. Limitations
Externalized Representations
Dependence on Distance Function
Prompt Sensitivity
Trajectory Alignment
Complexity Parameterization
Recoverability as Empirical Property
Scope and Empirical Validation
10. Conclusions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Or, Barak. Kalman-inspired runtime stability and recovery in hybrid reasoning systems. arXiv 2026, arXiv:2602.15855. Available online: https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2602.15855.
- Wei, J.; Wang, X.; Schuurmans, D.; Bosma, M.; Xia, F.; Chi, E.; Le, Q.V.; Zhou, D. Chain-of-thought prompting elicits reasoning in large language models. arXiv 2022, arXiv:2201.11903. Available online: https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2201.11903.
- Sari et al., Internal consistency in chain-of-thought reasoning. arXiv 2024. Available online: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.18711.
- von Recum et al., Are reasoning LLMs robust to interventions on their chain-of-thought? arXiv 2026, arXiv:2602.07470. Available online: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.07470.
- Zhang et al., Large language models as discounted Bayesian filters. arXiv 2025. Available online: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.18489.
- Emanuel et al., Exploring belief states in LLM chains of thought. LessWrong. 2025. Available online: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ncpdXznDMxDZDyn6J/exploring-belief-states-in-llm-chains-of-thought.
- Becerra-Monsalve et al., Multi-dimensional evaluation of auto-generated chain-of-thought traces in reasoning models. Mathematics 2025, 7(no. 1). Available online: https://www.mdpi.com/2673-2688/7/1/35.
- LLM evaluation frameworks and metrics guide for 2026,” MLAI Digital, 2026. Available online: https://www.mlaidigital.com/blogs/llm-model-evaluation-frameworks-a-complete-guide-for-2026.
| Condition | Accuracy | Divergence (D) | Complexity (C) | Integrity Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 0.92 | 0.00 | 12.4 | -1.24 |
| Perturbed | 0.88 | 0.47 | 28.7 | -3.34 |
| Repaired | 0.90 | 0.21 | 16.5 | -1.86 |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2026 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).