Research on the Driving Mechanism of Ecological Vulnerability in the Ebinur Lake Basin Based on Geodetectors

This study focuses on the ecological vulnerability and its driving mechanism of the Ebinur Lake Basin. Integrating natural factors such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation and elevation, as well as social factors including GDP and population distribution, it systematically evaluates the ecological vulnerability of the basin from 1994 to 2024 by adopting methods like the SRP model, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geodetector. The results show that the overall scale of ecologically vulnerable areas in the basin has presented a shrinking trend over the past 30 years: the area of severe vulnerability reached a peak of 14,270.31 square kilometers in 2004 and then decreased to 13,242.39 square kilometers; the area of slight vulnerability increased by 60.8%; and the proportion of moderate vulnerability has slightly risen since 2014. Spatially, the vulnerability exhibits significant agglomeration characteristics: severe vulnerable areas are concentrated in the mountainous areas of the basin boundary and the eastern region of Ebinur Lake, while slight vulnerable areas are distributed in woodlands and farmlands of alluvial fans in low mountains and hills. Geodetector analysis shows that, fractional vegetation cover, normalized difference vegetation index and land use type are the dominant factors, natural factors and social factors interact significantly.This study provides a scientific basis for ecological protection and sustainable development of the basin.