Advancing Rural Mobility: Identifying Operational Determinants for Effective Autonomous Road-Based Transit

Rural communities face persistent transport disadvantages due to low population density, limited-service availability, and high operational costs, restricting access to essential services and exacerbating social inequality. Autonomous public transport systems offer a transformative solution by enabling flexible, cost-effective, and inclusive mobility options. This study investigates the operational determinants for autonomous road-based transit systems in rural and peri-urban South-East Queensland, employing a structured survey of 273 residents and analytical approaches, including General Additive Model (GAM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Findings indicate that small shuttles suit flexible, non-routine trips, minibus shuttles enhance first-mile and last-mile connectivity, and standard-sized buses are optimal for high-capacity school and emergency transport. Hybrid models integrating autonomous and conventional buses are preferred, with autonomous taxis raising equity concerns. Multipurpose services and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) integration will help improve efficiency of the system. Policy recommendations include deploying small shuttles in university and tourist areas, minibus shuttles in town centres with accessibility standards, and standard-sized buses for school transport with subsidies to ensure equitable access. These insights guide policymakers in designing autonomous transit systems to improve rural connectivity and quality of life.