Submitted:
01 August 2025
Posted:
06 August 2025
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
Background and Relevance of the IFRS–S1 and S2
Risks and Financial Standards
Real Option Valuation
Method
3. Results
3.1. Proposed ROV Model
- Underlying Asset Value (UAV): For this research, the underlying is going to be the present value of the Free Cash Flows (FCF) from a capital investment project (Anderloni, 2011), but the financial professional must know that other variables can be considered as the underlying, like natural resources (Gui, 2011), intellectual property (Sudarsanam et al., 2006) and market opportunities (Baker et al., 2011).
- Time (T): This critical component represents the time left until the option period expires. In this context, investment time is divided into discrete periods (quarters), which allow the valuation of the option at any moment. The longer the period until expiration, the higher the probability of reducing uncertainty, which increases the option value.
- Strike Price (SP): This is the initial cost and includes the outcomes related to the investment proposal. The organization would consider exercising the option in situations where the intrinsic value of the underlying asset is higher than the strike price, thus making the investment beneficial.
- Discount rate (r): The Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the proposal rate for the ROV model.
3.2. Factors of Uncertainty That Could Affect the Cash Flows of the Investment Projects
- New or changes in regulation: Regulatory change represents one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in project valuation. This uncertainty arises not only from the introduction of new standards but also from the continuous amendments to existing ones at international, national, and industry-specific levels. Climate-related regulations, such as Standards S1 and S2, exemplify this dynamic environment, where compliance requirements evolve rapidly in response to global sustainability challenges. Firms should place particular emphasis on monitoring regulatory developments and incorporating flexible valuation approaches.
- An economic crisis derived from external factors such as wars, a healthcare pandemic, international negotiations, potential disruptions from extreme weather events, etc: Economic crises triggered by external factors constitute another critical source of uncertainty that companies must address. These crises often arise from events beyond corporate control and can severely affect supply chains, production capacity, and ultimately the cash flow generated by the firm. Natural disasters like floods, droughts, or wildfires created a need for the company to integrate risk measures that account for such external shocks.
- New or changes in political statements: Political shifts and changes in governmental statements have increasingly become a significant source of uncertainty. The ideological orientation of policymakers can influence regulatory priorities, trade agreements, and legal frameworks, such that political volatility affects investment security, market access, and operational continuity.
- Internal financial factors: governance and risk management. Internal financial factors, particularly corporate governance and risk management practices, represent a crucial source of uncertainty. Companies with boards of directors or committees lacking expertise in sustainability may fail to correctly identify and evaluate the risks to which they are exposed, while also overlooking significant opportunities. When governance structures are weak or risk management processes are insufficient, scenario analyses may be superficial or inaccurate.
- Transition risk: Transition risk, arising from the global shift toward low-carbon economies, has become a critical driver of uncertainty. As governments adopt stricter regulations around climate change, companies face increasing compliance costs and potential penalties for failing to meet emissions targets. Meanwhile, the movement of consumer demand towards sustainable products also risks decreasing demand and affecting revenue.
3.3. Proposed Voluntary Notes Under IFRS S1 and S2
- Describe the valuation model applied, such as the real options approach proposed in this study, highlighting its theoretical foundation and adaptability under conditions of uncertainty.
- Disclose the key variables and assumptions, with particular emphasis on those that capture transition risks, climate-related risks, and other sustainability-related uncertainties as outlined by IFRS S1 and S2.
- Present sensitivity analyses, similar to those required under IAS 36 and IFRS 13, to illustrate the potential impact of changes in critical variables (e.g., interest rates, carbon prices, regulatory scenarios) on cash flow projections and valuations.
- Explain the connection between the model and the management of uncertainty, demonstrating how the approach supports dynamic decision-making and enhances the company’s resilience in an evolving regulatory and environmental context.
4. Discussion
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| IASB | International Accounting Standards Board |
| ISSB | International Sustainability Standards Board |
| IASC | International Accounting Standards Committee |
| IFRS | International Financial Reporting Standards |
| IOSCO | International Organization of Securities Commissions |
| ROV | Real Option Valuation |
| GRI | Global Reporting Initiatives |
| DSJI | Dow Jones Sustainability Index |
| DFC | Discounted Cash Flows |
| NPV | Net Present Value |
| IRR | Interest Return Rate |
| ESG | Environmental, Social and Governance |
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| Action | Description | Type of option |
|---|---|---|
| Postpone the investment | The option to delay or defer investment provides its owner with the right to invest in a project at a later date. The company or investors will decide to wait a specific time if the NPV of the project is negative or if the future uncertainty is very high. | Call |
| Expansion | This option is common in those companies that have high-growth opportunities, especially in periods of economic boom. The strike price of the call option is the cost of creating this additional capacity, discounted to the time of option exercise. An investment project may have a low or negative NPV without flexibility; however, if there are growth opportunities, the option to expand can increase its value significantly. | Call |
| Contraction | The option to contract an investment project provides its owner with the right to give up a part of it in exchange for savings (the strike price). In a scenario contrary to the option of expanding, the company may find incentives to reduce its production capacity or size if market conditions turn out to be worse than expected. The strike price is the present value of the future expenditures saved as seen at the time of exercise of the option. | Put |
| Abandonment | This option provides its owner with the right to sell, liquidate, close, or abandon a project when conditions warrant it. The strike price is the liquidation (or resale) value of the project less any closing-down costs. When the liquidation value is low, the strike price can be negative. Abandonment options mitigate the impact of inferior investment outcomes and increase the initial valuation of a project. | Put |
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