Submitted:
24 June 2025
Posted:
25 June 2025
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
- Guaranteed savings model
- Shared savings model
2. Literature Review
2.1. Main Challenges in EPC Applications
2.1.1. EPC Financing Challenges and Investment Payback Times
2.1.2. Deficiencies in the Legal and Regulatory Framework
2.1.3. Measurement and Verification Problems
2.1.4. Bureaucratic Processes and Lack of Institutional Awareness
2.1.5. EPC Financing Challenges and Investment Payback Times
2.2. Solution Suggestions
2.2.1. Diversification of Financing Options
2.2.2. Strengthening the Legal Framework
2.2.3. Improving Measurement and Verification Processes
2.2.4. Increasing Public Awareness and Technical Capacity
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Conducting Energy Audits and Collecting Data
3.2. Regression Model Development
- Unit production cost (TL/kWh)
- Independent Variables:
- Annual solar radiation (kWh/m2-year)
- Solar power plant investment cost (TL/kWp)
- Electricity sales price (kr/kWh)
- Y - Unit production cost (TL/kWh)
- X1 - Annual solar radiation (kWh/m2-year)
- X2 - Solar power plant investment cost (TL/kWp)
- X3 - Electricity sales price (kr/kWh)
- β0 - Constant term
- β1, β2, β3 - Coefficients of independent variables
- ε - Error term
- R2 (Coefficient of Determination): 0.873
- F-Test Significance Level: p < 0.01
- t-tests (independent variables): p < 0.05 (significant for all variables)
- Error Rate (%) = |Estimated - Actual| / Actual × 100 = |2,778,882 - 2,423,472.28| / 2,423,472.28 × 100 ≈ 14.67%
3.3. Electricity Production Estimation and Calculation Formula
- Ei - Energy expected to be produced in month i (kWh)
- Ri - solar radiation measured in the ith month (kWh/m2)
- A - Panel surface area (m2) → 3600 m2
- H - Panel efficiency → 0.18 (i.e., 18%)
4. Results
4.1. Electricity Production Estimation and Calculation Formula
4.2. Planned Production and Economic Gain
4.3. Monthly PV Performance Analysis Obtained from Inverter Remote Monitoring System
- Estimated annual production amount: 2,778,882 kWh
- Actual production amount: 2,423,472.28 kWh
- Planned production (according to EPC contract): 2,085,030.40 kWh
- Grey column (Planned Production): Represents the production amount committed by the contractor company within the scope of EPC, which is 2,085,030.40 kWh. This value is the minimum performance level that forms the basis of the contract.
- Blue column (Actual Production): Indicates the production amount of 2,423,472.28 kWh based on field measurements. This amount is approximately 16% above the planned production, indicating that the technical capacity and operating conditions of the system performed better than expected.
- Orange column (Predicted Production): It reflects the theoretical production amount of 2,778,882.00 kWh calculated with the multivariate regression model and system efficiency parameters using Antalya Meteorology data. This value shows the production limit of the system based on the maximum climatic potential.
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Installed Power | 1710.72 kWp |
| Panel Area | 3600 m2 |
| Panel Efficiency | 18% (0.18) |
| Performance Ratio | 83% |
| Specific Production | 1434.9 kWh/kWp-year |
| Variable | Average | Minimum | Maximum | Std. Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Radiation (X1) | 371.19 | 206.42 | 451.76 | 77.92 |
| Investment Cost (X2) | 10,714 | 10,000 | 11,200 | 426.75 |
| Electricity Sales Price (X3) | 313.82 | 310.00 | 320.00 | 3.27 |
| Unit Production Cost (Y) | 0.654 | 0.605 | 0.710 | 0.033 |
| Month | Radiation (kWh/m2) | Production (kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | 434.02 | 281,244.12 |
| May 2024 | 451.76 | 292,741.84 |
| Jun 2024 | 432.49 | 280,255.85 |
| Jul 2024 | 441.30 | 285,965.51 |
| Aug 2024 | 419.76 | 272,725.38 |
| Sep 2024 | 375.29 | 243,133.55 |
| Oct 2024 | 336.93 | 218,376.76 |
| Nov 2024 | 250.46 | 162,302.06 |
| Dec 2024 | 206.42 | 133,740.34 |
| Jan 2025 | 249.22 | 161,487.43 |
| Feb 2025 | 297.11 | 192,623.14 |
| Mar 2025 | 393.63 | 254,984.71 |
| TOTAL | – | 2,778,882 |
| Order | Device Brand | Device Model | Serial Number |
Initial Reading (kWh) | Final Reading (kWh) | Production (kWh) | Production (TL) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schneider | ION 7650 | MJ-2209A033-05 | 325.70 | 1,200,232.00 | 1,199,906.30 | 5,051,605.52 |
| 2 | Schneider | ION 7650 | MJ-2209A039-05 | 1,014.02 | 1,224,580.00 | 1,223,565.98 | 5,151,212.78 |
| total | 2,423,472.28 | 10,202,818.30 |
| Production Type | Energy (kWh) | Value (TL) |
|---|---|---|
| Planned Production | 2,085,030.40 | 8,777,978.00 |
| Actual Production | 2,423,472.28 | 10,202,818.30 |
| Overproduction | 338,441.88 | 1,424,840.30 |
| Month | Total Irradiance (kWh/m2) | PV Gain (kWh) | Specific Energy (kWh/kWp) | Performance Ratio (%) | CO2 blocked (t) | Standard Coal Savings (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-24 | 96.89 | 147,314.43 | 85.98 | 88.74 | 69.97 | 58.93 |
| April-24 | 37.91 | 217,464.55 | 127.10 | 100.00 | 103.30 | 86.99 |
| May-24 | 200.85 | 278,226.43 | 162.61 | 80.96 | 132.16 | 111.29 |
| Jun-24 | 209.26 | 281,661.90 | 164.62 | 78.67 | 133.79 | 112.67 |
| Jul-24 | 207.13 | 282,502.77 | 165.11 | 79.71 | 134.19 | 113.00 |
| Aug-24 | 183.49 | 257,621.55 | 150.37 | 81.99 | 122.37 | 103.05 |
| Sep-24 | 162.73 | 230,688.55 | 134.65 | 82.74 | 109.58 | 92.28 |
| Oct-24 | 137.37 | 201,896.87 | 117.84 | 85.78 | 95.90 | 80.76 |
| Nov-24 | 75.32 | 115,442.55 | 67.38 | 89.47 | 54.84 | 46.18 |
| Dec-24 | 51.56 | 81,494.06 | 47.57 | 92.26 | 38.71 | 32.60 |
| Jan-25 | 75.92 | 121,013.43 | 70.63 | 93.03 | 57.48 | 48.41 |
| Feb-25 | 99.72 | 160,743.68 | 93.82 | 94.08 | 76.35 | 64.30 |
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