Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on the Brazilian Stock Market

This research seeks to evaluate the effects of the preceding cyclical indicators and macroeconomic variables on the performance of the Brazilian stock market. The objective is to identify how these factors influence the behavior of the main index representing this market. In this way, we analyze how shocks in the Composite Leading Indicator of the Economy, as well as the Basic Interest Rate of the Economy, the Broad National Consumer Price Index, the Express Nominal Exchange Rate and the Central Bank Economic Activity Index impact the performance of IBOVESPA index. The results obtained indicated that the shocks to the Composite Leading Indicator of the Economy, Exchange Rate and Inflation variables influenced the IBOVESPA in different and statistically significant ways. However, shocks to the Economic Activity Index and the Rate of Interest did not exert a statistically significant influence on the index.