Submitted:
27 February 2025
Posted:
27 February 2025
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Theoretical Background
2.1. Importance of Using ML and AI from Management Perspective
2.2. Wind Energy Systems as Sustainable Energy Source
2.3. Utilization of ML in the Energy Sector
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Analysis Strategy
- True positives (TP) are failures correctly predicted by the model. These will result in repair costs.
- False negatives (FN) are real failures where there is no detection by the model. These will result in replacement costs.
- False positives (FP) are detections where there is no failure. These will result in inspection costs.
3.2. Overview of Dataset and Data Preprocessing
4. Results
4.1. Model Performance
4.2. Results of ML Analysis
- Part-36 (Negative correlation with Failure – Decreasing values of Part-36 results in higher Failure chance)
- Part-26 (Negative correlation with Failure – Decreasing values of Part-26 results in higher Failure chance)
- Part-18 (Negative correlation with Failure – Decreasing values of Part-18 results in higher Failure chance)
- Part-16 (Positive correlation with Failure – Increasing values of Part-16 results in higher Failure chance)
- Part-1 (Positive correlation with Failure – Increasing values of Part-1 results in higher Failure chance)
- Part-14 (Positive correlation with Failure – Increasing values of Part-14 results in higher Failure chance)
- Part-39 (Negative correlation with Failure – Decreasing values of Part-39 results in higher Failure chance)
- Part-12 (Negative correlation with Failure – Decreasing values of Part-12 results in higher Failure chance)
- Part-35 (Negative correlation with Failure – Decreasing values of Part-35 results in higher Failure chance)
- As the components Part-36, Part-26 and Part-18 are the most important ones in predicting the failure, and all have negative correlation with failure, lower values (especially low negative values) measured from those components will most probably lead to failure. Thus, we recommend system engineers be more careful and plan to repair the generator, if they detect a decrease in the measurement of the components Part-36, Part-26, Part-18.
- As the components Part-16, Part-1 and Part-14 are the second most important group of parts in predicting the failure, and all have positive correlation with failure, higher values (especially high positive values) measured from those components will most probably lead to failure. Thus, we recommend system engineers be more careful and plan to repair the generator, if they detect an increase in the measurement of the components Part-16, Part-1 and Part-14.
- Since the components Part-39, Part-12, and Part-35 are the third most important group of parts in predicting the failure, and all have negative correlation with failure, lower values (especially low negative values) measured from those components will most probably lead to failure. Thus, we recommend system engineers be more careful and plan to repair generator, if they detect a decrease in the measurement of the components Part-39, Part-12, and Part-35.
5. Discussion
- True positives (TP) are failures correctly predicted by the model. These will result in repair costs.
- False negatives (FN) are real failures where there is no detection by the model. These will result in replacement costs.
- False positives (FP) are detections where there is no failure. These will result in inspection costs.
5.1. Managerial and Practical Implications
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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| Oversampled ML Model |
Cross Validated Recall Score on Training Data | Cross Validated Recall Score on Validation Data |
|---|---|---|
| Logistic Regression | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| Bagging | 0.98 | 0.80 |
| Decision Tree | 0.97 | 0.77 |
| Random Forest | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Gradient Boosting | 0.93 | 0.84 |
| Adaboost | 0.90 | 0.84 |
| XGBoost | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| Oversampled ML Model |
Cross Validated Recall Score on Training Data | Cross Validated Recall Score on Validation Data |
|---|---|---|
| Logistic Regression | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Bagging | 0.87 | 0.84 |
| Decision Tree | 0.85 | 0.82 |
| Random Forest | 0.90 | 0.87 |
| Gradient Boosting | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| Adaboost | 0.86 | 0.83 |
| XGBoost | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| Gradient Boosting using oversampled data | Adaboost using oversampled data |
Random Forest using undersampled data | XGBoost using oversampled data |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0.995 | 0.993 | 0.989 | 0.998 |
| Recall | 0.994 | 0.990 | 0.979 | 1.000 |
| Precision | 0.995 | 0.997 | 0.998 | 0.996 |
| F1 | 0.995 | 0.993 | 0.989 | 0.998 |
| Gradient Boosting using oversampled data | Adaboost using oversampled data |
Random Forest using undersampled data | XGBoost using oversampled data |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0.966 | 0.981 | 0.944 | 0.978 |
| Recall | 0.828 | 0.821 | 0.860 | 0.857 |
| Precision | 0.662 | 0.836 | 0.502 | 0.774 |
| F1 | 0.736 | 0.828 | 0.634 | 0.814 |
| Gradient Boosting using oversampled data | Adaboost using oversampled data |
Random Forest using undersampled data | XGBoost using oversampled data |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0.967 | 0.979 | 0.942 | 0.973 |
| Recall | 0.833 | 0.834 | 0.858 | 0.875 |
| Precision | 0.669 | 0.807 | 0.493 | 0.720 |
| F1 | 0.742 | 0.820 | 0.630 | 0.783 |
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