4. Analysis of World Energy Structure and Carbon Emission Status
Over the past six decades, global carbon dioxide emissions have shown a continuous upward trend (
Figure 1), although the growth rate has slowed down. According to the
2023 Statistical Review of World Energy published by the Energy Institute (EI) [
19], global CO
2 emissions were 14,291.71 megatons in 1970, increasing by 49% twenty years later. During the decade from 2010 to 2019, global greenhouse gas emissions reached their highest level in history, with global CO
2 emissions rising to 35.66 gigatons, representing a 3.70% increase compared to 2012. However, following the consensus reached by countries on climate issues in 2015, the average growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions during this period was lower than the previous decade, decreasing from an annual average of 2.1% from 2000 to 2009 to 1.3%.
Between 2019 to 2022, global CO2 emissions showed a notable trend of initial decline followed by a rising, with a mere 0.11% year-on-year increase in global carbon emissions in 2019. In 2020, the global economy experienced a severe downturn due to the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with factors such as economic lockdowns and industry shutdowns, leading to a significant reduction in carbon emissions worldwide. Carbon emissions in various countries generally decreased from 35.34 gigatons in 2019 to 33.43 gigatons in 2020, marking a substantial year-on-year decrease of 5.6%. As economies gradually recovered, global CO2 emissions reached 35.53 gigatons in 2021, representing an increase of 6.3% (2.1 gigatons) compared to 2020 and an increase of 0.5% (0.19 gigatons) compared to 2019. In 2022, global CO2 emissions were approximately 36.07 gigatons, indicating an increase of 1.5% (0.54 gigatons) compared to 2021, an increase of 7.9% (2.64 gigatons) compared to 2020, and an increase of 2.1% (0.73 gigatons) compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
In 2022, global carbon emissions were lower than expected, reaching a historic high but with a slower growth rate compared to 2021. Specifically, carbon emissions from energy consumption exceeded 3.68 gigatons, an increase of 423 megatons, while CO2 emissions from industrial production decreased by 102 megatons. The promotion of new energy technologies and adjustments of the energy structure are among the primary contributing factors.
From the perspective of various energy consumption (
Figure 2), global oil consumption reached 190.69 EJ in 2022, accounting for 31.6%. This was followed by coal consumption at 161.47 EJ, representing approximately 26.7%. [
19].
From a regional perspective of consumption (
Figure 3), the Asia-Pacific region had the highest energy consumption in 2022, reaching 17955.4 million tons of carbon dioxide, accounting for approximately 52.2%, followed by North America with 5851.4 million tons of carbon dioxide, representing approximately 17% [
19].
Overall, despite some progress in global emissions reduction has been achieved, the challenge at the global level remains daunting, due to factors such as differences in energy structures, awareness of emissions reduction and other influencing factors.
4.1. U.S. Energy Structure and Carbon Emissions Status
Over the past decade, the United States has experienced an overall decline in carbon emissions, but still ranks second globally in terms of carbon emissions, primarily sourced from fossil fuels, especially natural gas and oil. According to the
2023 Statistical Review of World Energy database released by the Energy Institute (EI) [
19], energy-related CO
2 emissions in the United States decreased by approximately 263.3 megatons of CO
2 equivalent (MtCO
2e) from 2012 to 2022, representing a reduction of 5.17% (
Figure 4). In 2022, global natural gas prices surged, leading most other countries to reduce their reliance on natural gas; however, the United States went in the opposite direction. Driven by rising natural gas consumption, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions increased by 1.2% (57.4 MtCO
2e). In the energy structure of the United States for the year, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear power and renewable energy accounted for 9.83%, 33.34%, 35.77%, 8.03%, and 13.03%, respectively. Notably, natural gas and oil alone comprised 69.11% of the total energy mix (
Figure 5).
In recent years, the United States has placed energy system transformation at the forefront of its efforts to accelerate energy structure adjustment. The country is committed to reducing the proportion of fossil fuels and promoting comprehensive decarbonization in sectors such as electricity and industry. From 2012 to 2022, the share of fossil fuels in the US energy mix decreased by 3.11%, while the nuclear power remained relatively stable, and the proportion of renewable energy increased by 3.63%.
Based on the evolving U.S. energy structure and recent trends in primary energy consumption, projections indicate that U.S. carbon dioxide emissions will continue to rise in 2024, but at levels below from 2019.
4.2. U.K. Energy Structure and Carbon Emissions Status
Over the past decade, the United Kingdom has achieved a significant reduction in carbon emissions, with a growth rate lower than the global average. In 2019, the carbon emissions in the UK reached a lowest historic level, totaling 381.3 MtCO
2e, representing a decrease of approximately 3.8% compared to 2018. In comparison to 2012, there has been a remarkable reduction of 25.15% over the span of a decade. Notably, despite a 4.1% growth in the UK's economy in 2022, carbon emissions did not experience a significant surge.
Figure 6 illustrates the carbon dioxide emissions related to energy in the UK from 2012 to 2022 [
19].
From 2012 to 2022, the proportion of fossil fuels and nuclear energy in the UK energy structure decreased by 9.74% and 1.73% respectively. On the contrary, the proportion of renewable energy increased by 12.5%.
Due to the expansion of clean energy utilization, rare heatwaves, and record-high fossil fuel prices, the consumption of natural gas in the United Kingdom experienced a slight decline in 2022. The proportion of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy, and renewable energy in the UK's energy structure were 36.5%, 35.4%, 3%, 5.9%, and 19.2%, respectively (refer to
Figure 6), with greenhouse gas emissions increasing by 0.94%, remaining relatively stable, ending the brief downward trend following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Influenced by factors such as structural adjustments in energy, based on historical data, it is expected that the carbon dioxide emissions in the UK will be lower in 2024 than in 2019.
4.3. Japan’s Energy Structure and Carbon Emissions Status
Due to the impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan experienced an increase in demand for fossil fuels, leading to a short-term rise in carbon emissions. However, in recent years, this trend has gradually started to reverse. Japan achieved carbon peaking in 2012, with carbon emissions reaching 1282.2 megatons. In 2019, Japan's CO
2 emissions decreased to 1120.6 megatons, representing a reduction of 161.6 megatons or 12.6% compared to 2012. Following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, carbon emissions in Japan slightly rebounded to 1065.7 megatons in the years 2021-2022, as shown in
Figure 8 [
19].
Japan is committed to accelerating the decarbonization in power sector and promoting energy structure transformation through a development model centered around electrification of the energy system. During the period from 2012 to 2022, the proportion of fossil fuels in Japan's energy structure decreased by 8.91%, while the proportion of renewable energy increased year by year due to factors such as nuclear power plant suspensions, fixed feed-in tariffs, and subsidy systems, with an increase of 7%.
In 2022, the proportions of coal, crude oil and its products, natural gas, renewable energy, and nuclear power in Japan's energy structure were 37.05%, 20.29%, 27.58%, 12.5%, and 2.63%, respectively. (
Figure 9).
The share of renewable energy will continue to increase in the future. According to the Sixth Basic Energy Plan, the proportion of renewable energy in the electricity structure is expected to reach 36%-38% by 2030.
There are 54 nuclear power plants in Japan, generating about one-third of electricity came from nuclear energy. Prior to the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, nuclear power accounted for approximately 30% of Japan's national electricity supply. Following the impact of the earthquake, most of the nuclear power plants have been shut down and subsequently restarted in the Fourth Basic Energy Plan in 2014, with the proportion showing a trend of initially decreasing and then gradual increase. By 2021, the proportion of nuclear power had reached 3.34%. However, in 2022, Japan's nuclear power generation declined to 51.8 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), accounting for 2.63% of the total, partially compensated by coal, natural gas, thermal and solar power generation.
In 2023, Japan embarked on a restructured plan for green energy transition, entitled "Basic Policy for Achieving Green Transformation" (hereinafter referred to as "the Policy"). The Japanese government revised the Policy, stipulating series of energy transformation measures including the restart of nuclear power plants, development of new-generation nuclear power units, support for research and utilization of hydrogen and ammonia, promotion of energy security, and introduction of renewable energy.
4.4. Germany’s Energy Structure and Carbon Emissions Status
As the largest economy and strongest industrial manufacturing capability, Germany has a significant energy consumption, making it one of the largest carbon emitters in Europe. According to the carbon emissions data from the German Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt, UBA) [
20], Germany has witnessed a gradual decline in carbon emissions in recent years. Notably, from 2018 to 2020, there was a significant reduction of 127.6 megatons, amounting to 17.41% decrease in carbon emissions. (
Figure 10).
During the period from 2012 to 2022, the proportion of fossil fuels in Germany's energy structure decreased by 6.76%, while nuclear energy decreased by 4.68%, and the proportion of renewable energy increased by 11.44%. Simultaneously, Germany's primary energy consumption decreased from 13.54 EJ to 12.3 EJ, with a reduction of 9.16%, which is significantly higher than the decrease in carbon dioxide emissions during the same period (7.08%).
Although Germany still relies on fossil fuels, but the usage is gradually decreasing. In 2022, the proportions of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy and renewable energy in Germany's energy structure were 34.66%, 22.62%, 18.96%, 2.52% and 21.24%, respectively (
Figure 11). Germany's natural gas supply was affected by the "Russia-Ukraine conflict," leading to a 15.75% year-on-year decrease in natural gas consumption to 2.78 EJ. It is anticipated that in the short term, the proportion of other fossil fuel consumption may increase, and carbon emissions may temporarily rise due to adjustments of the energy structure.
Germany has implemented measures such as phasing out coal and nuclear energy, vigorously developing renewable energy, and continuously improving energy efficiency. However, due to the impact of the nuclear phase-out policy, it is anticipated that Germany's carbon dioxide emissions may increase slightly in 2023.
4.5. France’s Energy Structure and Carbon Emissions Status
France has maintained a relatively low level of carbon emissions and exhibited a fluctuating downward trend. According to the
2023 Statistical Review of World Energy published by the Energy Institute (EI) [
19], from 2012 to 2022, France's carbon dioxide emissions decreased by approximately 65.9 megatons, reflecting a reduction of 19.6% (
Figure 12).
From 2012 to 2022, the proportion of fossil fuels in France's energy structure remained relatively stable. France has highly depended on nuclear energy for a long time. In order to promote the transformation of energy structure and achieve decarbonization goals, France has implemented measures such as reducing nuclear energy plans and improving energy efficiency.
By 2022, the proportions of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy, and renewable energy in France's energy structure were 34.73%, 16.46%, 2.51%, 31.62%, and 14.68% respectively (
Figure 13). Compared to 2012, the proportion of nuclear energy decreased by 11.38%, while the proportion of renewable energy increased by 10.68%. France's primary energy consumption decreased from 10.37 EJ to 8.39 EJ, representing a reduction of 19.09%, which is slightly lower than carbon dioxide emissions during the same period (19.64%).
4.6. Analysis of Carbon Emission Reductions in the above Five Countries
In 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic had varying degrees of impact on the economic development of countries worldwide. The carbon dioxide emissions of the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, and France all experienced significant reductions, marking the lowest levels in nearly a decade. However, in 2021, as production and daily activities resumed to normal, carbon emissions have exceeded these years when the COVID-19 broke out. After excluding the data of 2020, this paper evaluates the "nationally determined contributions" of carbon emissions for each country, using the baseline of carbon dioxide emissions in 2019, the year before the COVID-19 outbreak.
In Article 3 of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it is stipulated that "developed country Parties should take the lead in addressing climate change and its adverse effects." Therefore, as developed countries, the carbon emissions reduction efforts of the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, and France should surpass the global average. According to
Table 2, the carbon reduction efforts of these five countries are higher than the global average, achieving a certain level of "nationally determined contributions." If ranked by "proportional carbon emissions reduction," the order would be the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Japan, and the United States.