preprints.org > environmental and earth sciences > remote sensing > doi: 10.20944/preprints202402.1414.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 22 February 2024 / Approved: 26 February 2024 / Online: 26 February 2024 (11:35:43 CET)

Despite increased protection globally, climate change and other anthropogenic factors have caused a significant decline in seagrass cover. Identifying the specific causes of this decline is paramount if they are to be addressed. Therefore, we identified the causes of long-term change in seagrass/submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) percentage cover and extent in the Bluefields Bay Special Fish Conservation Area (BBSFCA), a marine protected area on Jamaica’s southern coast. We used two random forest regression (RFr) models that included 2013 hydroacoustic survey SAV percentage cover data (dependent variable), and auxiliary data, reflectance data from level 2 processed 2013 Landsat 7 and 8 images and image band texture statistics maps (mean and variance) as predictors to generate 24 SAV percentage cover maps for the period 1984 – 2021 (37 years) using data from Landsat 4-5, 7 and 8 images., from which benthic features maps (SAV present, absent and coral reef) were created. Rainfall and map data were used to determine if SAV extent/area (km2) and average percentage cover and annual rainfall changed significantly over time and to evaluate the influence of rainfall. Rainfall impact on the overall spatial patterns of SAV loss, gain, and percentage cover change was assessed using a pixel-based regression. Finally, the most important spatial pattern predictors (two rainfall proxies (distance and direction from river mouth), benthic topography, depth, and hurricane exposure (a measure of hurricane disturbance)) of SAV loss, gain, and percentage cover change during 23 successive 1-to-4-year periods were identified using spatial Bayesian INLA generalized linear mixed models. SAV area/extent was largely stable with > 70% mean percentage cover for multiple years. However, Hurricane Ivan (in 2004) caused a significant decline in SAV area/extent (by 1.62 km2, or a 13%) during 2002 – 2006 and a second hurricane (Dean) in 2007 delayed recovery until 2015. Additionally, rainfall declined significantly by >1000 mm since 1901, and mean monthly rainfall positively influenced SAV percentage cover change. The pixel-based regression highlighted areas where mean monthly rainfall had a positive overall effect on SAV cover percentage change (across the entire bay) and gain (closer to the mouth of a river). The most frequently selected important spatial pattern predictors were the two rainfall proxies (areas closer to the river mouth were more likely to experience SAV loss and gain) and depth, with shallow areas generally having a higher probability of SAV loss and gain. Three hurricanes had significant but different impacts depending on their distance from the southern coastline. Hurricane Gilbert, which made landfall in 1988, resulted in higher SAV percentage cover loss in 1987 - 1988. Benthic locations with a northwestern/northern facing aspect (the predominant direction of Ivan’s leading edge wind bands) experienced higher SAV losses during 2002 – 2006. Although some locations impacted by Ivan and not by Dean recovered during 2006 – 2008, exposure to Ivan explained percentage cover loss during 2006 – 2008 and average exposure to (the cumulative impact of) Ivan and Dean (both with tracks close to the southern coastline) explained SAV loss during 2013 – 2015. Therefore, despite historic lows in annual rainfall, overall, higher rainfall was beneficial, multiple hurricanes impacted the site, and despite two hurricanes in three years SAV recovered within a decade. Hurricanes and a further reduction in rainfall may pose a serious threat to SAV persistence in the future.

climate change; storms; submerged aquatic vegetation; random forest

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing

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