2.1. Study Area
The Rasina River is a right tributary of the Zapadna Morava River, with a total watershed area of 981 km
2. Rasina springs on the slopes of the Goč and Željin mountains at an elevation of 1340 meters above sea level, formed by the merging of the Velika and Burmanska river (
Figure 1). The lowest elevation of the Rasina is 134 meters above sea level, at the confluence in Zapadna Morava five kilometers downstream from Kruševac. Up to the village of Razbojna, it flows through a canyon-like valley with small erosion enlargements, such as the one near Brus. Between Razbojna and Brus, it flows through a shallow and wide channel through the Dobroljubac basin, before entering the Zlatarska Gorge where it forms several entrenched meanders. The watershed is elongated with a developed hydrographic network. Apart from the Zagrža river, which is the left tributary, all other tributaries are from the right. All these rivers flow through canyon-like valleys with steep slopes transporting sediment. The largest among them are the Graševac River, coming from Kopaonik, and the Blatašnica River from Jastrebac.
The Rasina River drains the slopes of the Jastrebac and Kopaonik mountains, reaching elevations of 1500 meters above sea level and 1900 meters above sea level, respectively. According to the topographic map, the watershed area upstream of the dam is 609.15 km
2. The perimeter of the watershed is 184.47 km. The river length is 69.95 km, and the length of the watershed is 49.39 km. The lowest elevation in the watershed is 239 meters above sea level at the dam profile, while the highest elevation is 1936 meters above sea level. The average elevation in the watershed is 695 meters above sea level, with a mean elevation difference of 447 meters. The average slope of the watershed is 34.65% (
Table 1).
Slope angles up to 10 degrees cover 29% of the watershed area. Dominant slopes are between 10-25 degrees, covering 60% of the surface. Areas with slopes greater than 25 degrees constitute 11% (
Figure 2a). Analysis of hypsometric characteristics of the Ćelije reservoir watershed area shows that 23% of the surface is located between 300 and 500 meters, 58% of the surface is between 500 and 1000 meters above sea level, and 18% is located above 1000 meters. Below 300 meters, there is only 1% (
Figure 2).
These natural characteristics indicate a significant predisposition of the watershed area for the development of erosion processes, sediment yield and transport.
The geological composition of the Ćelije reservoir watershed is predominantly characterized by the following geological formations: Paleozoic bedrock complex (crystalline schists), Mesozoic bedrock complex (flysch), Paleogene bedrock complex, Neogene bedrock complex, and Quaternary deposits.
According to the resistance to erosion processes, bedrocks are categorized into four categories: very solid rocks, conditionally solid rocks, conditionally erodable rocks, and very erodable rocks. Conditionally solid are present on 13.75% of the area, conditionally erodable rocks on 38.27%, and very erodable rocks on 44.88%, meaning that more than 90% of the area is potentially threatened by erosion (
Figure 3b).
The dominant soil types in the watershed are of weaker structure. The most prevalent soil types are eutric cambisols (35%), followed by distric cambisols (12.8%), ranker eutric soils (8.7%), ranker distric soils (6.6%), and regosol (7.5%), while other soils are present on smaller areas (
Figure 3а).
The lowland part of the Rasina River watershed is characterized by a moderately continental climate, while the hilly-mountainous area of the watershed has uneven elevation influenced by the continental climate.
For the purpose of determining the climatic characteristics of the Ćelije reservoir watershed area for the period from 1990 to 2022 (
Table 2), data from meteorological stations in Kruševac, Brus, Blace, Goč, Kopaonik, and Jastrebac were used [
30].
The annual precipitation during the period from 1946 to 1990 at the Kruševac meteorological station was 649 mm, while at the Brus meteorological station it was 678 mm, indicating that the precipitation amount was higher by 89 mm and 144 mm respectively (
Figure 4a).
Analyzing the data from the "Kruševac" meteorological station, the average annual temperature for the lower part of the watershed is 12.4°C. For the mountainous part of the watershed, the average annual temperature is 4.2°C, based on data from the "Kopaonik" meteorological station at 1710 m above sea level (
Figure 4b).
Comparing to the values for the period 1946 - 1990, the average annual temperature at the Kruševac meteorological station has increased by 1.4 degrees Celsius.
The Rasina River exhibits all the characteristics of a torrential watercourse because its flow amplitudes are very pronounced. In April, it has 5.5 times more water than in August. The highest flow occurred in April 1958 and amounted to 342 m3/s.
According to the population census data from 2022 (
Figure 5), the population in the area of the Ćelije reservoir watershed is 20,402 inhabitants, continuing the trend of population decline since 1953 when there were 34,631 inhabitants [
31].
2.2. Methodology
There is a large number of erosion risk assessment models in use today [
32,
33,
34]. The selection of a specific model largely depends on the purpose of the research, data availability, time and finances required for the project. Most models used in soil erosion studies are empirical models. These models vary in complexity and incorporate different techniques and approaches to define erosion intensity, sediment yield and transport [
35,
36,
37,
38].
The Erosion Potential Method (EPM) also known as Gavrilović was developed and calibrated using field research in the Juzna Morava River basin [
39,
40,
41,
42,
43,
44]. This method is widely used in Serbia, the former Yugoslav republics [
45,
46,
47,
48,
49], as well as in the Mediterranean region, Central Europe, the Middle East, and other climates [
50,
51,
52,
53,
54,
55,
56,
57].
Method has provided reliable results for evaluating of intensity of soil erosion processes, mean annual soil erosion rate and sediment transport and implementing erosion control measures.
The biggest challenge lies in verifying the obtained data. At the regional and broader levels, reliable data for comparing estimated and actual soil loss practically do not exist. The method involves both qualitative and quantitative analyses and is adapted to GIS environments. The erosion mapping procedure includes processing various datasets and calculating numerical indicators.
The basic premise of the method is to reduce subjective errors in coefficient estimation to an acceptable level, and the development and improvement of the method are aimed at eliminating them.
The EPM involves classifying the intensity of erosion into 5 categories, from very slight (V category) to excessive (I category). The primary parameter used to classify the intensity and category of erosion in this method is the erosion coefficient (Z).
Parameters for determining the erosion coefficient include topographic, geological and pedological characteristics, land use practices within the watershed, and the degree of erosion vulnerability of the watershed. Each of these parameters can be represented by a digital map and by overlaying these maps a separate composite map is generated, where areas with identical coefficient values are formed. For each of these areas, the average slope of the terrain is determined, and all these data represent input values for calculating the erosion coefficient (Z) according to the following Equation (1):
where X represents soil protection coefficient; Y is the ceofficient of soil resistance; φ is the erosion and stream network development coefficient, while I is the average slope of the watershed.
The values of coefficients used in the EPM are in
Table 3.
Precipitation and temperature data were obtained from 6 meteorological stations for the period 1990 to 2022. The coefficient Y was determined based on a geological map at a scale of 1:100,000. Coefficients X and ϕ were determined using orthophotos, satellite imagery, and field research of erosion conditions during 2022, based on which a land use map was created. Different land use categories were identified, harmonized for both periods.
Morphometric characteristics and slopes were determined using a topographic map at a scale of 1:25,000 and digital elevation model (SRTM).
The calculated values for each delineated area form the basis for the classification of erosion processes. The coefficient values (Z) are categorized into five classes, which provide an optimal number for graphical representation of the erosion status and surface prevalence (
Table 4). For practical application and calculations, each category has been assigned a qualitative name and corresponding mean value for the erosion coefficient (Z). This erosion map thus created serves as the foundation for further application in other areas.
The described procedure resulted in the creation of an erosion map for the entire analyzed area. Data on the surface prevalence of erosion, defined by the mentioned method, serve as the initial basis for calculating sediment tield and transport from the watershed area. These data have enabled the development of new methods for calculating sediment transport.
The calculation of specific annual gross erosion was performed according to the following Equation (2)
where, Wsp is specific annual erosion (m
3/km
-2/year
-1), T is the temperature coefficient, H is mean annual precipitation (mm), Z is the erosion coefficient and F is the basin area (km
2)
Temperature coefficient (T) is calculated by Equation (3):
where t is mean annual temperature (°C)
The annual gross erosion for the entire watershed area (Wyear) is calculated by multiplying the watershed area (F) by the specific annual gross erosion (W) by Equation (4).
Having calculated the total annual soil erosion rates, we calculated the sediment delivery ratio, which is needed for the actual sediment yield calculation. Gavrilovic [
42] suggested the following Equation (5) for the determination of the sediment delivery ratio Ru:
where O is perimeter of watershed (km), D is average distance of elevation of the watershed (km) and L is length of the watershed (km).
Specific sediment transport is calculated as:
The actual sediment transport is:
In this study, erosion mapping was based on the Erosion Potential Method successfully integrated into the GIS environment, using the open-source geographic information system QGIS [
57]. To define the change in soil erosion intensity, GIS was used to overlay the erosion map from 1968 with the current erosion map from 2022. The modeling, digitization, and mapping were conducted using QGIS 3.32.0.