preprints.org > public health and healthcare > health policy and services > doi: 10.20944/preprints202401.0986.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 11 January 2024 / Approved: 12 January 2024 / Online: 12 January 2024 (09:03:59 CET)

At the beginning of 2023 the Italian former prime minister, the former health minister and 17 others including the current president of Lombardy region, were placed under investigation on suspicion of aggravated culpable epidemic in connection with the government’s response at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The charges revolve around the failure by authorities to take adequate measures to prevent the spread of the virus in the Bergamo area, which experienced a significant excess of deaths during the initial outbreak. The aim of this paper is to analyse pandemic data of Italy and Lombardy region in the first 10 days of the pandemic, spanning from the 24th of February 2020 to the 4th of March 2020. The objective is to determine whether the use early warning indicators could have facilitated the identification of a critical increase in infections. This identification, in turn, would have enabled the timely formulation of strategies for pandemic containment, thereby reducing the number of deaths. In conclusion, to translate our findings into practical guidelines, we propose a low-cost early warning method for infectious respiratory diseases with asymptomatic carriers.

COVID-19; test positivity rate; early wa; health system management

Public Health and Healthcare, Health Policy and Services

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