Article
Version 1
Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Impact of Ukrainian refugees on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics after February 24, 2022
Version 1
: Received: 8 January 2024 / Approved: 9 January 2024 / Online: 10 January 2024 (05:23:35 CET)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
Nesteruk, I.; Brown, P. Impact of Ukrainian Refugees on the COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics after 24 February 2022. Computation 2024, 12, 70. Nesteruk, I.; Brown, P. Impact of Ukrainian Refugees on the COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics after 24 February 2022. Computation 2024, 12, 70.
Abstract
On February 24, 2022 Russia started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which created an unprecedented number of refugees. To estimate the influence of this humanitarian disaster on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics, the averaged daily numbers of cases and reproduction numbers in Ukraine, the UK, Poland, Germany, the Republic of Moldova, and in the whole world were calculated for the period February-April 2022. The registered numbers of cases were compared with ones calculated with the use of the generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure for the previous epidemic waves in Ukraine, Poland, Germany, and the world. Since before February 24, 2022 the estimation of the number of infectious persons per capita in Ukraine 3.6 times exceeded the global figure, the increase of the number the new cases and the pandemic duration was expected. In March 2022 the increase of the averaged number of new cases in the UK, Germany, and worldwide was visible. A simple formula to estimate the effective reproduction number based on the smoothed accumulated numbers of cases is proposed. The results of calculations agree with the figures presented by John Hopkins University and demonstrate a short-term growth of the reproduction number in the UK, Poland, Germany, Moldova, and worldwide in March 2022.
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic; epidemic waves; epidemic dynamics in Ukraine; Poland; Germany; Moldova; the UK; global pandemic dynamic; mathematical modeling of infection diseases; SIR model; parameter identification; reproduction number; statistical methods
Subject
Public Health and Healthcare, Public Health and Health Services
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Comments (0)
We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our Diversity statement.
Leave a public commentSend a private comment to the author(s)
* All users must log in before leaving a comment
