Version 1
: Received: 18 August 2023 / Approved: 18 August 2023 / Online: 21 August 2023 (08:57:07 CEST)
How to cite:
Mashkova, A.; Bakhtizin, A. Assessing Consequences of Global Trade Wars for World Economies: Tools and Forecasts. Preprints2023, 2023081439. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1439.v1
Mashkova, A.; Bakhtizin, A. Assessing Consequences of Global Trade Wars for World Economies: Tools and Forecasts. Preprints 2023, 2023081439. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1439.v1
Mashkova, A.; Bakhtizin, A. Assessing Consequences of Global Trade Wars for World Economies: Tools and Forecasts. Preprints2023, 2023081439. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1439.v1
APA Style
Mashkova, A., & Bakhtizin, A. (2023). Assessing Consequences of Global Trade Wars for World Economies: Tools and Forecasts. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1439.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Mashkova, A. and Albert Bakhtizin. 2023 "Assessing Consequences of Global Trade Wars for World Economies: Tools and Forecasts" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1439.v1
Abstract
In the context of growing global political tension and introduction of world trade barriers, the urgent task is to develop new tools for assessing their consequences. In the paper we present the agent-based model of trade wars, considering organizations, states and residents generated using initial statistical data. Simulation determines changes in output and supplies of organizations under trade restrictions. Results of calculations on the developed model and comparison of various model complexes forecasts with real consequences of trade wars between the USA and China in 2018 and Western countries against Russia in 2022 are presented. Within calculations four scenarios were considered: (1) baseline, (2) new restrictions between China and the USA, (3) more serious sanctions against China and Russia by the USA and the EU, (4) a global trade war. In the second scenario deviation GDP of the USA and China from the baseline scenario does not exceed 0.5%. In the third scenario, the range of countries involved is expanding, and the fall in GDP in them is expected at the level of 0.7-1%. In the fourth scenario, the entire world economy experiences a serious slowdown, and the EU are facing the most severe consequences, going into recession.
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
