Zhou, W.; Liu, Z.; Wang, S. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of a Cropland Area and Its Response to Increasing Regional Extreme Weather Events in the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China during 1992–2020. Sustainability2023, 15, 13338.
Zhou, W.; Liu, Z.; Wang, S. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of a Cropland Area and Its Response to Increasing Regional Extreme Weather Events in the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China during 1992–2020. Sustainability 2023, 15, 13338.
Zhou, W.; Liu, Z.; Wang, S. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of a Cropland Area and Its Response to Increasing Regional Extreme Weather Events in the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China during 1992–2020. Sustainability2023, 15, 13338.
Zhou, W.; Liu, Z.; Wang, S. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of a Cropland Area and Its Response to Increasing Regional Extreme Weather Events in the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China during 1992–2020. Sustainability 2023, 15, 13338.
Abstract
Cropland area is closely related to food production. More previous focuses were paid on impacts of extreme events on food production, but less on cropland dynamics. This study took the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China (FPEN) as a case area, to investigate its cropland area dynamics and driving factors in view of perspectives of extreme events, environmental conditions, socioeconomic development, urban expansion, and ecological construction. We used ridge regression approach to quantify contributions of these drivers to cropland area dynamics. Results showed that cropland area increased significantly at a rate of 333.5km2/a during 1992−2020 and were spatially clustered in east of the FPEN. Impact extent and size each driving factor on cropland trend presented large spatiotemporal differences, but ecological construction (EC) had overall the greatest impact on cropland area changes, followed by urban expansion (UE). In comparison, TL10p has the smallest. UE-dominated areas increased 41.9% since 2010s, but still less than EC. Furthermore, we found that extreme events effects on cropland area trend evidently increased. Particularly, TH90p displayed the most increase (~99.4%). Cropland area changes dominated by extreme temperature events in 2010−2020 increased nearly six times than that in 1992−2010. These findings suggest that increasing impacts of extreme weather events on cropland area changes should be cautioned.
Copyright:
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