Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Early Retrieval Problem and Link Prediction Evaluation via the Area Under the Magnified ROC

Version 1 : Received: 17 September 2022 / Approved: 19 September 2022 / Online: 19 September 2022 (10:31:53 CEST)

How to cite: Muscoloni, A.; Cannistraci, C.V. Early Retrieval Problem and Link Prediction Evaluation via the Area Under the Magnified ROC. Preprints 2022, 2022090277. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0277.v1 Muscoloni, A.; Cannistraci, C.V. Early Retrieval Problem and Link Prediction Evaluation via the Area Under the Magnified ROC. Preprints 2022, 2022090277. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0277.v1

Abstract

Link prediction is an unbalanced early retrieval problem, whose goal is to prioritize a small cohort of positive links on top of a list largely populated by unlabelled links. Differently from binary classification, here the evaluation focuses on how the predictor prioritizes the positive class because, in practice, a negative class does not exist. Previous studies explained that AUC-ROC is not apt for unbalanced class problems and is misleading for early retrieval problems, therefore standard AUC-ROC is not appropriate for evaluation of link prediction. However, some scholars argue that an AUC-ROC like evaluation accounting for the relative positioning of the few positive links among the vastness of unlabelled links remains a valid concept to pursue. Here we propose the area under the magnified ROC (AUC-mROC), a new measure that adjusts the standard AUC-ROC to work also for unbalanced early retrieval problems such as link prediction.

Keywords

link prediction; AUC-ROC; Early retrieval evaluation

Subject

Computer Science and Mathematics, Probability and Statistics

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