Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Machine Learning Classification of Specific Serologic Cytokines May Improve Detection of Recent, Fall Induced, Sub-Concussional Brain Changes in Geriatric Nondemented Subjects

Version 1 : Received: 7 September 2022 / Approved: 9 September 2022 / Online: 9 September 2022 (13:05:28 CEST)

How to cite: Drima, E.; Vrabie, C. Machine Learning Classification of Specific Serologic Cytokines May Improve Detection of Recent, Fall Induced, Sub-Concussional Brain Changes in Geriatric Nondemented Subjects. Preprints 2022, 2022090137. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0137.v1 Drima, E.; Vrabie, C. Machine Learning Classification of Specific Serologic Cytokines May Improve Detection of Recent, Fall Induced, Sub-Concussional Brain Changes in Geriatric Nondemented Subjects. Preprints 2022, 2022090137. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0137.v1

Abstract

A chronic activated pro-inflammatory cytokine network (“inflamm-aging”) may amplify the neurodegenerative effects of a fall induced brain trauma in geriatric subjects. Our research aimed to evaluate how a trained machine learning algorithm may predict recent antecedent falls based only on specific serologic cytokines network analysis and how the consequences of these falls can be substantiated on standard head MRIs. All 279 subjects included in our study were selected from the ADNI1 dataset and all had a mild cognitive impairment diagnostic at the ADNI1 study baseline. A “train group” was built and included 14 subjects with a history of a recent, simple, standing-level fall. These were carefully matched with 14 similar subjects without any antecedent trauma. The “test group” included 251 subjects, all without any history of recent fall. The machine learning algorithm (classic C4.5 decision tree) was trained to detect a pattern of variation in 23 clinically relevant cytokines in relation with an antecedent fall. Changes in five cytokines (matrix metalloproteinase-7, eotaxin-1, interleukin-3, interleukin-8 and matrix metalloproteinase-9) were used for fall prediction in the “test” group. Once trained, the algorithm predicted a recent fall in 119 cases from the test group. The mean brain ventricular volume that was significantly different between fall/non-fall subgroups (41645.5±10337.2 vs 27127.3±6749.4 mm3, p=0.005) remained significant in the test group, after prediction between (41544.24±17343.4 vs 34553.5±10543.2 mm3, p=0.042). The hippocampus mean volume was also significantly different between in the test group (6297.3±1080.1 vs 6745.9±1123.7, p=0.0015). A significant brain ventricular difference was observed in the “65<y.o.” subgroup (p=0.04). If confirmed by larger prospective studies, our findings may increase the precision of the neuro-cognitive assessments in geriatric subjects.

Keywords

Chronic geriatric inflammation; machine learning C4.5 classification; brain ventricular volumes; recent fall; subconcussive brain trauma

Subject

Medicine and Pharmacology, Pathology and Pathobiology

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