Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Predicting the Cross-Coordinated Immune Response Dynamics in Sars-Cov-2 Infection: Implications for Disease Pathogenesis

Dmitry Grebennikov
ORCID logo ,
Antonina Karsonova
,
Marina Loginova
,
Valentina Casella
ORCID logo ,
Andreas Meyerhans
ORCID logo ,
Gennady Bocharov
*
Version 1 : Received: 26 July 2022 / Approved: 27 July 2022 / Online: 27 July 2022 (15:11:44 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Grebennikov, D.; Karsonova, A.; Loguinova, M.; Casella, V.; Meyerhans, A.; Bocharov, G. Predicting the Kinetic Coordination of Immune Response Dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Implications for Disease Pathogenesis. Mathematics 2022, 10, 3154. Grebennikov, D.; Karsonova, A.; Loguinova, M.; Casella, V.; Meyerhans, A.; Bocharov, G. Predicting the Kinetic Coordination of Immune Response Dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Implications for Disease Pathogenesis. Mathematics 2022, 10, 3154.

Abstract

A calibrated mathematical model of antiviral immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection is developed. The model considers the innate and antigen-specific responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Recently published data sets from human challenge studies with SARS-CoV-2 were used for parameter estimation. Understanding the regulation of multiple intertwined reaction components of the immune system is necessary for linking the clinical phenotypes of COVID-19 with the kinetics of immune responses. Consideration of multiple immune reaction components in a single calibrated mathematical model allowed us to address some fundamental issues related to pathogenesis of COVID-19, i.e. sensitivity of the peak viral load to parameters characterizing the specific response components, the kinetic coordination of the individual responses, and the factors favoring a prolonged viral persistence. The model provides a tool for predicting the infectivity of patients, i.e. the amount of virus which is transmitted via droplets from the person infected with SARS-CoV-2, depending on the time of infection. The thresholds in the relative unbalance between innate and adaptive response parameters which lead to a prolonged persistence of SARS-CoV-2 due to the loss of a kinetic response synchrony/coordination were identified.

Keywords

SARS-CoV-2 infection; innate immune response; antigen-specific immune response; kinetic coordination; mathematical model; pathogenesis, long COVID-19

Subject

Computer Science and Mathematics, Applied Mathematics

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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