Version 1
: Received: 16 February 2022 / Approved: 18 February 2022 / Online: 18 February 2022 (07:04:24 CET)
How to cite:
Damgaard, C. Assessing Scientific Evidence of Singular Historic Events by Bayes Theorem. Preprints.org2022, 2022020225. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202202.0225.v1
Damgaard, C. Assessing Scientific Evidence of Singular Historic Events by Bayes Theorem. Preprints.org 2022, 2022020225. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202202.0225.v1
Cite as:
Damgaard, C. Assessing Scientific Evidence of Singular Historic Events by Bayes Theorem. Preprints.org2022, 2022020225. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202202.0225.v1
Damgaard, C. Assessing Scientific Evidence of Singular Historic Events by Bayes Theorem. Preprints.org 2022, 2022020225. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202202.0225.v1
Abstract
The typically qualitative treatment of evidence underlying different causal hypotheses that attempt to explain singular historic events is criticized. Instead of using ad hoc qualitative arguments, it is here advocated to use Bayes theorem to assess how well evidence either support or weaken a specific causal hypothesis. It is argued that such a practice will enable scientists who study singular historic events to discuss, compare and aggregate different beliefs in a meaningful way.
Keywords
Bayes theorem; singular historic events
Subject
Arts and Humanities, Archaeology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
