Assessing Scientific Evidence of Singular Historic Events by Bayes Theorem

The typically qualitative treatment of evidence underlying different causal hypotheses that attempt to explain singular historic events is criticized. Instead of using ad hoc qualitative arguments, it is here advocated to use Bayes theorem to assess how well evidence either support or weaken a specific causal hypothesis. It is argued that such a practice will enable scientists who study singular historic events to discuss, compare and aggregate different beliefs in a meaningful way.