Version 1
: Received: 28 November 2021 / Approved: 29 November 2021 / Online: 29 November 2021 (15:44:44 CET)
How to cite:
Alagador, D.; Cerdeira, J.O.; Araújo, M.B. Spatial Adaptive Responses of Highly Threatened European Mammal Species under Climate Change. Preprints2021, 2021110550. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0550.v1
Alagador, D.; Cerdeira, J.O.; Araújo, M.B. Spatial Adaptive Responses of Highly Threatened European Mammal Species under Climate Change. Preprints 2021, 2021110550. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0550.v1
Alagador, D.; Cerdeira, J.O.; Araújo, M.B. Spatial Adaptive Responses of Highly Threatened European Mammal Species under Climate Change. Preprints2021, 2021110550. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0550.v1
APA Style
Alagador, D., Cerdeira, J.O., & Araújo, M.B. (2021). Spatial Adaptive Responses of Highly Threatened European Mammal Species under Climate Change. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0550.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Alagador, D., Jorge Orestes Cerdeira and Miguel Bastos Araújo. 2021 "Spatial Adaptive Responses of Highly Threatened European Mammal Species under Climate Change" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0550.v1
Abstract
Current species’ range displacements are mostly triggered by climate change but European landscapes are largely dominated by human activities. In this study we identify the most promising spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) for the thirty most threatened non volant mammal species in Europe up to 2080 (under three climate and land change scenarios) and where/when SATs of each species synchronically converge. We found large contrasts on the persistence of species in SATs, with some species largely reliant on the functionality of areas where many SATs converge. Overall, SATs and convergence centers are not adequately covered by existing conservation areas and coincide with crop and arable lands, compromising species persistence. It is important to invest in the protection of SATs and convergence centers through a mix of conventional instruments and new collaborative forms with the socio-economy. Anticipative plans at long-term coupled with risk analysis offer decision–makers templates to prevent negative surprises.
Keywords
Adaptation; Biodiversity; Climate Change; Conservation Planning; Land use; Netowrks; Optimization; Protected areas
Subject
Biology and Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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