Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

A Bayesian Analysis of the Inversion of the SARS-COV-2 Case Rate in the Countries of the 2020 European Football Championship

Version 1 : Received: 3 August 2021 / Approved: 4 August 2021 / Online: 4 August 2021 (12:58:33 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 13 August 2021 / Approved: 16 August 2021 / Online: 16 August 2021 (10:57:52 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Casini, L.; Roccetti, M. A Bayesian Analysis of the Inversion of the SARS-COV-2 Case Rate in the Countries of the 2020 European Football Championship. Future Internet 2021, 13, 212. Casini, L.; Roccetti, M. A Bayesian Analysis of the Inversion of the SARS-COV-2 Case Rate in the Countries of the 2020 European Football Championship. Future Internet 2021, 13, 212.

Journal reference: Future Internet 2021, 13, 212
DOI: 10.3390/fi13080212

Abstract

While Europe was beginning to deal with the resurgence of COVID-19 due to the Delta variant, the European football championship took place, June 11 - July 11, 2021. We studied the inversion in the decrease/increase rate of new SARS-COV-2 infections in the countries of the tournament, investigating the hypothesis of an association. Using a Bayesian piecewise regression with a Poisson Generalized Linear Model, we looked for a changepoint in the timeseries of the new SARS-COV-2 cases of each country, expecting it to appear within four weeks since the date of their first match. The two slopes, before and after the changepoint, were used to discuss the reversal from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. 17 out of 22 countries (77%) have had a changepoint 14.97 days after their first match [95% CI 12.29 to 17.47]. For all those 17 countries, the changepoint coincides with an inversion from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. Before the changepoint, the new cases were decreasing, halving on average every 18.07 days [95% CI 11.81 to 29.42]. After the changepoint, the cases begin to increase, doubling every 29.10 days [95% CI 14.12 to 49.78]. This inversion in the SARS-COV-2 case rate, happened during the tournament, provides evidence in favor of a relationship.

Keywords

SARS-COV-2; Bayesian regression; Changepoint detection; European football championship

Subject

MATHEMATICS & COMPUTER SCIENCE, Algebra & Number Theory

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